... I will say this only once  Anybody who has followed my meanderings over the years might know my broad-brush fair-value target for BTC-USD since my first discovering it was around $300K ... that was a v. simplistic calculation that bitcoin's addressable market, if it maintained it's exponential network growth and developed to it's potential in the foreseeable future at that time, which I estimated as being at least 10% of the gold market (in early 2011) valued at ~$6 trillion divided by ~18 million btc in future circulation. Caveat being at that time that future US$ inflation and widespread development/adoption could expand the addressable market for btc well beyond capturing 10% of gold's capital value and increase the US$ price target. Well now 10 years later, I think with all the evidence now surrounding us in 2021 it is time to update my minimum fair-value assessment for bitcoin. The caveat will be exercised and I can say that bitcoin is making great progress towards developing to it's potential, on the network nodes and resiliency, mining roll-out, core client software and higher layer solutions (lightning, Liquid, 3rd party payment channels, client-server payment set-ups, minimum trust custody, etc). Next month bitcoin is going to see it's first national roll-out in El Salvador as a legal tender component for the monetary system of that country. Bitcoin ATM's number in the thousands across the globe. Many people on the street know what you are talking about when the word is mentioned. The largest exchange/provider Coinbase has 60 million clients, has a market cap of $100 billion on IPO and there are many other exchanges/providers besides. Many countries allow bitcoin ETF proxy trading. Major financial institutions are competing to gear-up for providing bitcoin access for their HNWI. There are futures markets offering options and futures derivatives for bitcoin trading on the CME, NYSE-BAKKT and ICE. Listed companies MSTR TSLA are the first to begin accounting for bitcoin in their treasury reserves. All these elements build a picture that bitcoin adoption has now grown to the point that it has created an addressable market substantially in excess of a minor portion of the gold market. As bitcoin continues to grow, develop and build out infrastructure, and demonstrate perseverance as a hard money competing in the market of monetary goods, the size of that addressable market keeps growing. At a minimum, the US$ inflation rate alone has put the gold market cap almost 50% higher than 2011, now ~$9 trillion. Other measures of global wealth to use as a proportionate estimate for addressable market for bitcoin include, but not limited to, global fiat M0 ~ $80 trillion (and rising), stocks ~$120 trillion, bonds ~$160 trillion, real estate ~$400 trillion. My back of the envelope calculation now puts bitcoin addressable market fair-value target market capitalisation at around $20 trillion (~$1million/btc), in 2021 US$, on the current growth trajectory. After 10 years, I still wouldn't want to be in any other asset until we get near that fair-market value objective, and I'll again caveat that with assessing bitcoin's current status when we get near that target. |
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One thing that comes across in your voluminous posts is the recurring theme of looking at Bitcoin over the long term. I like the concept of the 200 week moving average and have come to regard this as a better price indicator than the frothy tops. And all the in-between action is just so much noise in a super 12 year bull run. I like too that you advocate to would-be buyers to DCA their purchases. One of my sons allocates 25% of his salary every month and just buys it at month end price.
... this is actually a really smart buying strategy now that options are becoming a big part of the current btc price action ... DCA once a month on options expiry dates over months is the way to beat the noise and leverage time against the shorts dollars |
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We know marcus, the world is a scary place. Maybe try enrolling in a group hug therapy session. A reminder of what human contact is like could do you some wonders therapeutically. ... yeah, that's what this is about, I'm scared and lonely. |
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... vaccine update  ... for all those who climbed onto the Pfizer jab hamster wheel, your synthetic immunity is waning away every day https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1429878195420024832The researchers found signs that vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection erodes over time, and that waning may occur faster in some vaccines than others. ... while this may seem like no big deal if the Sars-CoV-2 virus is going away also, not so fast https://twitter.com/InMy_0pini0N/status/1430257912140664835/photo/1... tl;dr previous attempts to develop vaccines for Sars-CoV-1 failed when the animal studies showed that when the animals with synthetic immunity wore off any subsequent exposure/challenge from the virus were "wiped out" ... suspected ADE issue ... today a somewhat panicked looking Israeli Prime Minister is urging those people who had 2 doses of Pfizer that their immunity is waning and these are now the people showing up in their current hospitalisation spike, so they must "hurry" to get their 3rd booster shot ... especially young people who weren't really threatened in large numbers before taking the vaccine ... hmmm, ADE? https://twitter.com/RWMaloneMD/status/1430236799792734219"People who received two vaccine shots walk around feeling like they are protected... they don't understand that the second vaccine has faded against the "Delta" - they must quickly get vaccinated with the 3rd dose!" |
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... so close now, the anticipation is building.
... the first penetration of resistance always evokes the most euporia, after that sliding back and forward through it is fun but never quite the same feeling
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without intending to offend, you don't know what you are talking about ...
Also, you absolutely do know what you are talking about. ... he clearly doesn't and the fact you think he does shows you don't either, which I guess shouldn't come as a surprise to me |
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without intending to offend, you don't know what you are talking about ... Why can't one have a normal conversation in the wall observer? A constructive dialog? Why someone has to ruin it somehow? It wasn't a normal conversation, I posted some informational content that you had no idea what it's purpose was and then you proceeded to reply with some garbage nonsense output from some garbled thinking which I pointed out and now you're offended when I specifically stated that wasn't my intent. There's a ton of material out there on the economics and historical precedents for sound money being superior to inflationary currency substitutes. You shouldn't expect to be spoonfed the good oil if you ask patsy questions and spout inflationista propaganda in a sound money forum. |
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... there is another angle to this also, once people have a deflationary money to store their earnings in for future spending then they are motivated to buy products that last, quality items are preferred over inferior quality substitutes that burn-out, break, etc, i.e. cheap nasty stuff that gets disposed of readily ... because if you buy a product that serves a utility/function/pleasure for longer then your savings will buy more of that product (use/functionality) in the future I'm not sure what's the purpose of that post. informational
Sure, overconsumption may decrease in certain parts of the world if we all used a deflationary currency such as Bitcoin, but if you know that your currency will worth more in the future, you'll also choose to not invest in stocks, because they'll bring less rate than your currency's.
There are lots of downsides that come from deflation.
without intending to offend, you don't know what you are talking about ... |
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Buying a Nintendo for $5 is a good example of why people are still willing to spend their bitcoin when they know the price will continue to go up.
If people are not willing to part with their money knowing that they can get the same product for less later on then why did anyone buy a Nintendo for $150 when they could have just waited and paid $5?
Why are people buying PS5s above retail value (current going price is about $700 while it is sold at stores for $400)?
... there is another angle to this also, once people have a deflationary money to store their earnings in for future spending then they are motivated to buy products that last, quality items are preferred over inferior quality substitutes that burn-out, break, etc, i.e. cheap nasty stuff that gets disposed of readily ... because if you buy a product that serves a utility/function/pleasure for longer then your savings will buy more of that product (use/functionality) in the future ... inflationary currency changes the psychology of society at the individual level and mal-adjusted economic behaviour becomes endemic with massive piles of waste, land-fills piled up with one-time use junk that gets discarded plus many other examples of wasteful economic outcomes (and associated environmental degradation) also known as unsustainable practices in the modern jargon ... inflationary monetary economics as a cult has a lot to answer for but governments are it's biggest champion... go figure that one |
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 ... are these the mythical sunlit uplands of lore? |
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^^^ kill them with kindness, it's the essence of the communist social attack! Bitcoin fixes this ... 50K by september looking at this action ... Wall looks ugly though  |
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Those pesky NOCOINERS always returning to try & piss on our parade. Sad for Raja but let this be a warning to all of you. Never sell all of your bitcoin, the regret will consume you as we power to ATH after ATH.
Yeah, I'm truly regretting selling my BTC at way over current prices, I agree. RIP fallen soldier I think I should let y'all know my current position in BTC: 0.
I got completely out at ~$50k and will load back whenever the 200 Week Moving Average trend line is touched (currently at ~$12.5k but going up rapidly). This could take a year or more; I'm fine with it.
Yeah, BTC is way over $50k right now, I agree. Just a matter of time ol’ friend. Time will tell who was right and who was wrong. Anyways, at least we made this thread a bit active for a little while. Not sure when/how it became so inactive. ... oh gawd, just what we need another sold out bitcoin bull, those are the worst, roach, mindrust, etc ... it becomes like a psychological disorder, tying themselves into mental pretzels as the bitcoin freedom train runs away from them ... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that? |
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@shahzadafzal If anyone celebrating this fuckup in Pakistan (recent events in Afg), please remind them that not one Afghani recognize the Durand line, be it your good taliban or bad taliban.
Celebrating??? You got it wrong my friend… stop trusting your media and yelling journalists they just want to make it a sensational news. Remember this is not a celebration for Taliban winning… but it’s a laugh on a Big Daddy the mighty might and not only Pakistanis but world is laughing too. Champions of the peace have left the country in chaos. People are literally falling from skies. There are more daily killings in Afghanistan as compared to 2001. Who’s ready to fight Taliban in Afghanistan yet again? Americas might be safe sitting thousands of miles away but what options do neighboring countries have? Think.. ... hate to harp on about how significant this accelerated Taliban resurgence will be for the Empire but I think the games in Afghanistan are just beginning. The US military left behind a huge stash or high-tech toys in the chaotic exit ... including fleets of Humvees, artillery, Apache helicopters!!! wtf? and many other goodies, not to mention many of the Afghan army they've been training and equipping for the past 10 years defected to Taliban (or were infiltrators anyway), pilots, engineers, aircraft maintainers, etc the full range of skills to run an army enough to make it interesting for their neighbours. |
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OT: a strange thunderstorm yesterday in H-town. Lightning mostly at a very sharp angle, instead of usual where most lightning is typically close to the right angle.
Lost power for a while, but then some strange electrical event occurred.
Some bulbs, especially those that are 'new' (economical) type started glowing in red (not white or yellow) and several electrical outlets (I assume those with fuses) started a slight buzz (which I recorded) for a good 15-20 min, then stopped.
I am not an electrician, but what could have caused it? Some residual charge in the air? It was very weird, never seen/heard anything like that.
sideways lightning, bulbs glowing red, outlets 'buzzing', I don't know of any natural electrical thunderstorm phenomena that can produce those kind of effects ... that sounds well, unbelievable, have you considered alien activity in the area? Or some other kind of radiation, increased solar proton flux? What latitude are you at? here is the weird 'induced" light..it was not flickering, steady.  normal light from the same lamp for comparison  Latitude-About 30oN. ... I think that looks like a halogen bulb, it could well have a reddish emission spectrum for low voltages (DC current). The sideways lightning can sometimes occur ahead of a thunderstorm as the lightning arcs out from the anvil top ahead of the storm into the dry air area ahead, these are known as 'bolts from the blue' and can be very powerful due to the large heights and associated voltage potentials they jump across ... I'm leaning more towards just some v. powerful lightning (as in high voltage) raising the ground potential significantly around your house ... rather than alien activity ... when this happens the local ground can temporarily be at a higher voltage than the 'live' high voltage line of the grid and weird shit begins happening as it drains currents into the grid |
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