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341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 22, 2013, 12:03:15 AM
1140!
looks like 1150 is about to fall......  Cheesy

You do realize you're saying... a whole 300 bitcoins LOOKs like it might be bought? lmao

Not only 1150 broke, but 1160 did too Shocked.

No sure if this is such a big deal, we also don't scream when stamp or gox move for dollar or two.

Have you seen the Speculation forum? We most certainly do scream when it moves a dollar or two Cheesy.
342  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 21, 2013, 11:57:06 PM
1140!
looks like 1150 is about to fall......  Cheesy

You do realize you're saying... a whole 300 bitcoins LOOKs like it might be bought? lmao

Not only 1150 broke, but 1160 did too Shocked.
343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: October 21, 2013, 01:33:54 AM
Bitcoin doing great. Growth has slowed slightly, but still October 2013 is taking the top 10 (and top 20) by storm.
1.  2013-04-09 W. Avg: 214.67
2.  2013-04-10 W. Avg: 184.65
3.  2013-04-08 W. Avg: 181.49
4.  2013-10-20 W. Avg: 165.18
5.  2013-10-19 W. Avg: 163.26
6.  2013-04-11 W. Avg: 158.93
7.  2013-04-07 W. Avg: 154.26
8.  2013-04-24 W. Avg: 152.07
9.  2013-10-18 W. Avg: 148.31
10. 2013-04-25 W. Avg: 143.07
11. 2013-10-16 W. Avg: 142.61
12. 2013-04-29 W. Avg: 142.25
13. 2013-04-06 W. Avg: 142.16
14. 2013-10-17 W. Avg: 141.81
15. 2013-04-30 W. Avg: 139.87
16. 2013-04-05 W. Avg: 139.22
17. 2013-10-15 W. Avg: 138.90
18. 2013-10-14 W. Avg: 135.27
19. 2013-04-23 W. Avg: 134.63
20. 2013-05-26 W. Avg: 134.02
344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: October 20, 2013, 01:41:03 AM
Speedily approaching a new record high.

1.  2013-04-09 W. Avg: 214.67
2.  2013-04-10 W. Avg: 184.65
3.  2013-04-08 W. Avg: 181.49
4.  2013-10-19 W. Avg: 163.26
5.  2013-04-11 W. Avg: 158.93
6.  2013-04-07 W. Avg: 154.26
7.  2013-04-24 W. Avg: 152.07
8.  2013-10-18 W. Avg: 148.31
9.  2013-04-25 W. Avg: 143.07
10. 2013-10-16 W. Avg: 142.61
11. 2013-04-29 W. Avg: 142.25
12. 2013-04-06 W. Avg: 142.16
13. 2013-10-17 W. Avg: 141.81
14. 2013-04-30 W. Avg: 139.87
15. 2013-04-05 W. Avg: 139.22
16. 2013-10-15 W. Avg: 138.90
17. 2013-10-14 W. Avg: 135.27
18. 2013-04-23 W. Avg: 134.63
19. 2013-05-26 W. Avg: 134.02
20. 2013-04-28 W. Avg: 133.17

345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 19, 2013, 04:20:58 AM
We are now solidly over 980 CNY. There is barely any horizontal space until 1000, but there's sure a ton of vertical space to cross...

346  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: October 19, 2013, 04:07:03 AM
Warning: this topic has not been posted in for at least 120 days.
Unless you're sure you want to reply, please consider starting a new topic.


Yes, I'm sure Smiley. It's time to revisit this metric. (NB: dates after June 10, 2013 use Bitstamp values instead of Mt. Gox values.)

1. 2013-04-09 W. Avg: 214.67
2. 2013-04-10 W. Avg: 184.65
3. 2013-04-08 W. Avg: 181.49
4. 2013-04-11 W. Avg: 158.93
5. 2013-04-07 W. Avg: 154.26
6. 2013-04-24 W. Avg: 152.07
7. 2013-10-18 W. Avg: 148.31
8. 2013-04-25 W. Avg: 143.07
9. 2013-10-16 W. Avg: 142.61
10. 2013-04-29 W. Avg: 142.25
11. 2013-04-06 W. Avg: 142.16
12. 2013-10-17 W. Avg: 141.81
13. 2013-04-30 W. Avg: 139.87
14. 2013-04-05 W. Avg: 139.22
15. 2013-10-15 W. Avg: 138.90
16. 2013-10-14 W. Avg: 135.27
17. 2013-04-23 W. Avg: 134.63
18. 2013-05-26 W. Avg: 134.02
19. 2013-04-28 W. Avg: 133.17
20. 2013-04-26 W. Avg: 132.25
347  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTCChina/Bitstamp discreptency on: October 19, 2013, 03:57:54 AM
But how do you get fiat out of BTCChina?

They only charge a 0.5% fee and it's virtually instant. It's not the same situation as with Mt. Gox.
348  Economy / Speculation / BTCChina/Bitstamp discreptency on: October 19, 2013, 03:51:22 AM
It has just occurred to me that the current BTCChina price (974 CNY = 160 USD) is almost $6 higher than the current Bitstamp price (154 USD). This discrepancy isn't sustainable, of course. The two exchanges have been of similar size recently, so which exchange is going to yield? Maybe they will meet in the middle?
349  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 19, 2013, 03:44:49 AM
If we're lucky, we'll see that 1k CNY wall challenged this weekend.. 

At this rate, the wall will be challenged in hours.
350  Other / Off-topic / Re: [Demographics Polling] Hub on: October 17, 2013, 09:09:42 PM
Are you White? Good news - I just talked to my supervisor, and we're going to purge all Caucasians from our databases so we can better-target the real terrorists. -But, the software won't know you're White unless you suggest it - so at least fill out the "language spoken" and "religion" poll. For your own good. Thanks!

How do these polls prove someone is white?
It can prove, with 70% certainty (well above the minimum threshold of 50%), that somebody is White, which eventually brings us to a 20% certainty that the person is a US citizen - as a separate addition to usual routines, making it almost impossible (90% certain) that an English-speaking Christian will be targeted.

80% of Americans are white. With your logic, being American "proves", with 80% certainty, that one is white.
351  Other / Off-topic / Re: [Demographics Polling] Hub on: October 17, 2013, 07:53:31 PM
Are you White? Good news - I just talked to my supervisor, and we're going to purge all Caucasians from our databases so we can better-target the real terrorists. -But, the software won't know you're White unless you suggest it - so at least fill out the "language spoken" and "religion" poll. For your own good. Thanks!

How do these polls prove someone is white?
352  Economy / Speculation / Re: I hope the U.S. does crash... But would it be good or bad for BTC? on: October 14, 2013, 05:51:32 PM
EXTREMELY GOOD?? I don't see how there's much to question here.

Doesn't matter if Bitcoin is 'tied' to the USD, if it crashes, there will be a mass influx of people looking to get in on Bitcoins reliability due to being decentralized, not to mention the speculators because of this.

Lets hope Smiley

Whether we like it or not, Bitcoin's economy is heavily dependent on the US market. A failure of the US market will cause unprecedented inflation in USD without corresponding increases in XBTUSD price. Such would cause at least a temporary decrease in Bitcoin's value.
353  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-08-19 Business Insider : The 'Killer Bitcoin App' Has Yet To Arrive on: October 14, 2013, 05:49:19 PM
Where does this 08-19 stuff come from?
354  Economy / Speculation / Re: I hope the U.S. does crash... But would it be good or bad for BTC? on: October 14, 2013, 05:44:09 PM
I think the effect will be initially bad, because Bitcoin's value is heavily tied to that of the USD. If the US defaults, that means many US investors, who still form the backbone of Bitcoin, will no longer be able to pump as much money in as that money is diverted to sustaining life. Arbitrage will then pull down Bitcoin's price on EUR and CNY exchanges.

However, after the US stabilizes, people will once again invest in Bitcoin and the prices in EUR and CNY will recover. Of course, price in USD will be up significantly anyhow.
355  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 14, 2013, 04:45:38 PM
I guess china will be the first country to ban bitcoin officially, since Chinese government own their central bank, they don't want another competing currency disturbing their money printing business. But if US government officially support bitcoin, they might just follow


I'm not so sure about this. China CB as been buying gold (massive amounts in the last few years) whereas the US has been selling, and we don't even know that the gold the US claims is in their vaults is really there (they defaulted on Germany's gold last year when delivery was requested.) Gold is not something CBs buy en masse when they are interested in saving their rapidly inflating fiat currency at all costs. In fact China has recently made statements expressing interest in an entirely new currency standard and their gold purchases may be to help back such an endeavour.

Also, bitcoin may be very important for money laundering by high chinese officials. And we know how rampant corruption is over there. (I lol because it's rampant over here too, although it's a bit harder to bribe the zoning board for a ruling exception in the US so maybe it's not as prevalent in the lower levels.) Sure, they could make it illegal for the general populace yet find ways for these officials to launder.... OTOH, with the chinese public participating, price is increasing (and possibly less volatile) which makes it a more efficient vehicle for laundering. Officials may be dragging their feet due to their own [laundering & gambling] self-interest.

I think the chinese goobermint did issue a statement a while back that bitcoin is, in fact, illegal there. They don't seem to be enforcing this, so IDK what that says about its actual legal status...

Also there was that suspicious TV docu on the state channel... they don't just let "big advertisement for bitcoin" air when they are planning on dropping the anvil on it. Something fishy's going on.

Also, while bitcoin could certainly bite the Chinese government and the Yuan, it would bite the USG/USD even harder and we all know how much the chinese wants the US on their knees.

So while they may crack down on bitcoin, it may not be as quickly as we'd expect from a western government, or with the fervour that we'd expect.

And who is not to say that the Chinese government themselves aren't buying them in quantity? With their manipulation of their currency, they can buy gold, bitcoin, US debt with few short term consequences. If they bet right, they never will have to pay for their sins.

I don't think the Communist Party of China is stupid. They probably realize that Bitcoin will be the future, and they won't risk the US holding 626000 BTC from the DPR seizure while having none of it themselves.
356  Other / Meta / Re: Security bounties on: October 13, 2013, 11:57:21 PM
Is there a particular reason why amounts are in Troy ounces of gold? I know the US is running a risk of default, but I do not see the dollar devaluing so much as to justify using Gold as a "stable" currency.
357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 13, 2013, 05:09:10 PM
It's crazy how quick China can change things.  I guess when you have 1.4 billion people...

Another interesting graph:



Are there any Chinese on Bitcointalk (or Chinese speakers) who can provide insight into what's going on?

I'm in Hong Kong and trading bitcoin on many different platforms, both Chinese and Western

The volume spike in China is related to these reasons:

1. There is an ongoing price war in Chinese markets. Many platforms, including btcchina, the biggest and oldest one, have zero trading fee. Therefore it is a bit unfair to compare their volume with other Western markets.

2. Chinese BTC exchanges have the best integration with fiat transfer system. Taking btcchina, the biggest exchange as example. Users can transfer fiat from any major Chinese bank to the exchange instantly with zero fee. Therefore, depositing BTC is literally faster and cheaper than depositing bitcoin (as the user may need to pay 0.0001BTC as network fee, while depositing fiat is absolutely free). To withdraw, only 0.5% is deducted and in most cases it will arrive in 24 hours. No daily limit. No AML or KYC. All you need are accounts of any major Chinese bank and Tenpay (the Chinese version of Paypal).

3. The volume of some platforms are suspicious. I personally trust the volume figure of btcchina.com, bitxf.com, and rmbtb.com. Not saying that the rest are not legit, just I have never traded on them. The volume on btc100.org is high probably because they are giving share of the exchange to traders. btc008.com is a known and ongoing scam.

4. It is very difficult for Chinese people to obtain USD and wire to Western exchanges, so they have to pay premium in Chinese markets.

Although it is easy for me to deposit to btcchina, I'm only buying at btc-e since the price is much lower. If I had to sell (but not now), I will definitely do it on btcchina. (This is the advantage of Hong Kong as we are the gateway between China and the rest of the world)

With no fees, how are the exchanges earning money?

Yes, they are operating like charity now. This is really the Chinese style price war. I think btcchina is still earning about 0.25%-0.5% from CNY withdrawal. Btcchina has earned a lot during the 2013 bubble so it may  survive a while without any income. I guess their plan is to squeeze the small and new competitors to death.

I still trust btcchina because of their track record. I will never trade on other free platforms as they can suddenly disappear.

Wow, that's smart. SatoshiDICE should have done that when its competitors appeared. Had it offered 0% (or other super-low) house edge for a while, it would have retained its #1 share instead of losing it to Just-Dice and the other dice sites.
358  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcointalk Registrations closed-off since Oct 10, 2013 on: October 13, 2013, 05:03:49 PM
Hello,

A friend of mine who is interested in posting on these forums, emailed me and mentioned that registrations seem to be closed-off.

On the offset it looks like an error, however I am wondering if the powers that be decided to stop at 150k members!

Was there a reason for the shutdown?

New registrations are processed by US Federal Government employees who are currently furloughed.
359  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: bitcoin.org and sourceforge.net are not running on https on: October 13, 2013, 04:56:21 PM
@jl2012, @dree12, although I would not argue that the MITM problem has place, I would like to ask you, what kind of OS you are using? This is a rhetorical question. Let's assume that many people are using Windows and - even more - they are using IE. Everyone knows that it has many flaws and security problems. So the average user installs some antivirus protection on his computer. But even the up to date AV databases are not guarantee 100% defense. Some time a new breaches found by malicious users and they produce a new viruses that are not identified by the present AV tool-kits  for a while. Then let's imagine that one of these bad guys targets specifically at satoshidice and makes a virus that changes the content of the page displayed at client side, directly in the browser. Then it has no sense if the page have been received with http or with https. So, some times the use of https is an overkill that would lead to growing expenses at both sides - the content providers one and at the client as https ultimately disables any intermediate caching of the information transferred. The only way to protect yourself from unwanted financial loses is to double check the addresses you are sending your coins by all available means (browse blockchain, e.t.c), verify md5/sha1/sha256 check-sums and pgp-signatures usually attached to open source sw published in open repositories, e.t.c.

For example, the download page of the bitcoin-qt reference client has a clear link to the signed sha256sums of the currently available version:

http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/bitcoin-0.8.5/SHA256SUMS.asc/view :

Code:
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA256

84543f10de5e82ce6e88dd5a501db37c6327edf79a2a04f29199c24843e71f63  bitcoin-0.8.5-linux.tar.gz
c583260f59a5e31ba8f819ed91b992423da6893095c6a910877451d01492625e  bitcoin-0.8.5-macosx.dmg
6f6b8fd68f56a8e700090267c53aa592b9c9e5c993f44c7be11ba9b87e1f92bb  bitcoin-0.8.5-win32-setup.exe
169161d7a3270e221952f65ff276c649c5818bb9fc10059fd00a531343194b75  bitcoin-0.8.5-win32.zip
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG/MacGPG2 v2.0.20 (Darwin)
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=QovN
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

Usually such a measure is enough to detect any tampered file. So there is no reason indeed to distribute it over https.

If your computer is compromised, it's the end of the world already.

I'm serious here. A virus that can modify webpages clientside can also break md5/sh1/sha256 checksum executables. It can corrupt your GPG executable. A virus can do anything.

This doesn't mean HTTPS is useless. Any virus that can break HTTPS security can break GPG security too.
360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - China wall movement tracker on: October 13, 2013, 04:52:25 PM
It's crazy how quick China can change things.  I guess when you have 1.4 billion people...

Another interesting graph:



Are there any Chinese on Bitcointalk (or Chinese speakers) who can provide insight into what's going on?

I'm in Hong Kong and trading bitcoin on many different platforms, both Chinese and Western

The volume spike in China is related to these reasons:

1. There is an ongoing price war in Chinese markets. Many platforms, including btcchina, the biggest and oldest one, have zero trading fee. Therefore it is a bit unfair to compare their volume with other Western markets.

2. Chinese BTC exchanges have the best integration with fiat transfer system. Taking btcchina, the biggest exchange as example. Users can transfer fiat from any major Chinese bank to the exchange instantly with zero fee. Therefore, depositing BTC is literally faster and cheaper than depositing bitcoin (as the user may need to pay 0.0001BTC as network fee, while depositing fiat is absolutely free). To withdraw, only 0.5% is deducted and in most cases it will arrive in 24 hours. No daily limit. No AML or KYC. All you need are accounts of any major Chinese bank and Tenpay (the Chinese version of Paypal).

3. The volume of some platforms are suspicious. I personally trust the volume figure of btcchina.com, bitxf.com, and rmbtb.com. Not saying that the rest are not legit, just I have never traded on them. The volume on btc100.org is high probably because they are giving share of the exchange to traders. btc008.com is a known and ongoing scam.

4. It is very difficult for Chinese people to obtain USD and wire to Western exchanges, so they have to pay premium in Chinese markets.

Although it is easy for me to deposit to btcchina, I'm only buying at btc-e since the price is much lower. If I had to sell (but not now), I will definitely do it on btcchina. (This is the advantage of Hong Kong as we are the gateway between China and the rest of the world)

With no fees, how are the exchanges earning money?
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