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1141
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Economy / Economics / Re: Concerned about the recent BTC price rise.
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on: January 24, 2013, 03:58:59 AM
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Another speculation bubble is probably in the brew unless we stabilize at the 20 mark for a bit longer. But it looks like we might stick around here, and then have a healthy price increase. The Bitcoin economy can probably support a price near 20, but anything above is probably speculation at the moment. Plus, it isn't even that bad. Look at the chart:  We've had much bigger in 2012, so it's premature to compare with 2011. |
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1142
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin
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on: January 24, 2013, 03:44:07 AM
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For those who are curious, here are weekly weighted averages (weeks do not start on any particular day):
1. 2011-06-04 through 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 23.38
2. 2011-06-05 through 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 22.62
3. 2011-06-08 through 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 21.42
4. 2011-06-07 through 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 21.41
5. 2011-06-06 through 2011-06-12 W. Avg: 21.31
6. 2011-06-03 through 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 21.30
7. 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 20.25
8. 2011-06-10 through 2011-06-16 W. Avg: 19.06
9. 2011-06-02 through 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 18.83
10. 2011-06-13 through 2011-06-19 W. Avg: 17.84
11. 2011-06-11 through 2011-06-17 W. Avg: 17.47
12. 2011-06-12 through 2011-06-18 W. Avg: 17.33
13. 2011-06-26 through 2011-07-02 W. Avg: 16.40
14. 2011-06-27 through 2011-07-03 W. Avg: 16.38
15. 2013-01-17 through 2013-01-23 W. Avg: 16.16
16. 2011-06-28 through 2011-07-04 W. Avg: 15.79
17. 2013-01-16 through 2013-01-22 W. Avg: 15.79
18. 2013-01-15 through 2013-01-21 W. Avg: 15.31
19. 2013-01-14 through 2013-01-20 W. Avg: 15.01
20. 2011-06-01 through 2011-06-07 W. Avg: 14.94
Note that June 2011 is underrepresented because of the Mt. Gox hack.
Unsurprisingly, 2012 has dominated the top 365-day period lists (note that the leap year may cause confusion):
1. 2012-01-25 through 2013-01-23 W. Avg: 8.07
2. 2012-01-24 through 2013-01-22 W. Avg: 8.04
3. 2012-01-23 through 2013-01-21 W. Avg: 8.01
4. 2012-01-22 through 2013-01-20 W. Avg: 7.98
5. 2012-01-21 through 2013-01-19 W. Avg: 7.96
6. 2012-01-20 through 2013-01-18 W. Avg: 7.94
7. 2012-01-19 through 2013-01-17 W. Avg: 7.91
8. 2012-01-18 through 2013-01-16 W. Avg: 7.86
9. 2012-01-17 through 2013-01-15 W. Avg: 7.82
10. 2012-01-16 through 2013-01-14 W. Avg: 7.80
11. 2012-01-15 through 2013-01-13 W. Avg: 7.79
12. 2012-01-14 through 2013-01-12 W. Avg: 7.77
13. 2012-01-13 through 2013-01-11 W. Avg: 7.75
14. 2012-01-12 through 2013-01-10 W. Avg: 7.73
15. 2012-01-11 through 2013-01-09 W. Avg: 7.71
16. 2012-01-10 through 2013-01-08 W. Avg: 7.69
17. 2012-01-09 through 2013-01-07 W. Avg: 7.67
18. 2012-01-07 through 2013-01-05 W. Avg: 7.66
19. 2012-01-08 through 2013-01-06 W. Avg: 7.66
20. 2012-01-06 through 2013-01-04 W. Avg: 7.64
The past 17 days have consistently set all time highs for the 365-day weighted average. January 6, 2012 was the last day that did not accomplish this, ending up below January 5, 2012. In 52nd place is 2010-10-11 through 2011-10-16 (which spans longer than 365 days because of the hack) with a weighted average of 7.03 USD, the highest 365-day weighted average that does not include a single day from 2012. All periods that include at least one day from 2013 (23 of them) rank in the top 23.
Edit: Then again, the exclusion of crucial dates from June isn't necessarily fair. Here are the top thirty weekly, allowing the hack dates as zero-trade days:
1. 2011-06-04 through 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 23.38
2. 2011-06-05 through 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 22.62
3. 2011-06-08 through 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 21.42
4. 2011-06-07 through 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 21.41
5. 2011-06-06 through 2011-06-12 W. Avg: 21.31
6. 2011-06-03 through 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 21.30
7. 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 20.25
8. 2011-06-10 through 2011-06-16 W. Avg: 19.06
9. 2011-06-02 through 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 18.83
10. 2011-06-13 through 2011-06-19 W. Avg: 17.84
11. 2011-06-19 through 2011-06-25 W. Avg: 17.77
12. 2011-06-11 through 2011-06-17 W. Avg: 17.47
13. 2011-06-12 through 2011-06-18 W. Avg: 17.33
14. 2011-06-14 through 2011-06-20 W. Avg: 17.26
15. 2011-06-15 through 2011-06-21 W. Avg: 16.97
16. 2011-06-18 through 2011-06-24 W. Avg: 16.83
17. 2011-06-23 through 2011-06-29 W. Avg: 16.73
18. 2011-06-22 through 2011-06-28 W. Avg: 16.68
19. 2011-06-24 through 2011-06-30 W. Avg: 16.67
20. 2011-06-16 through 2011-06-22 W. Avg: 16.63
21. 2011-06-21 through 2011-06-27 W. Avg: 16.55
22. 2011-06-25 through 2011-07-01 W. Avg: 16.51
23. 2011-06-26 through 2011-07-02 W. Avg: 16.40
24. 2011-06-27 through 2011-07-03 W. Avg: 16.38
25. 2013-01-17 through 2013-01-23 W. Avg: 16.16
26. 2011-06-17 through 2011-06-23 W. Avg: 16.01
27. 2011-06-28 through 2011-07-04 W. Avg: 15.79
28. 2013-01-16 through 2013-01-22 W. Avg: 15.79
29. 2011-06-20 through 2011-06-26 W. Avg: 15.59
30. 2013-01-15 through 2013-01-21 W. Avg: 15.31
And the yearly now has 2010-10-15 through 2011-10-14 ranking 47th.
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1143
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin
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on: January 24, 2013, 03:22:47 AM
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The top 100 isn't special. The top 200 demonstrates the same effect, even more pronounced if I might say:  BTW, today's weighted average ranks #13, making the third 2013 day that ranked in the top 20 (the remainder are from June 2011): 1. 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 29.58 2. 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 27.25 3. 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 24.67 4. 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.11 5. 2011-06-07 W. Avg: 19.9 6. 2011-06-15 W. Avg: 19.68 7. 2011-06-14 W. Avg: 19.25 8. 2011-06-16 W. Avg: 18.86 9. 2011-06-06 W. Avg: 18.46 10. 2011-06-19 W. Avg: 17.77 11. 2011-06-11 W. Avg: 17.61 12. 2011-06-05 W. Avg: 17.32 13. 2013-01-23 W. Avg: 17.2214. 2013-01-22 W. Avg: 17.1515. 2011-06-27 W. Avg: 17.01 16. 2011-06-28 W. Avg: 16.93 17. 2011-06-29 W. Avg: 16.88 18. 2011-06-30 W. Avg: 16.51 19. 2011-06-04 W. Avg: 16.41 20. 2013-01-21 W. Avg: 16.38 |
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1144
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Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add to the wordCHAIN Puzzle.
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on: January 24, 2013, 03:05:40 AM
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UPDOG
R
ALBATROZ
B PATTAYA
L SNOW
ATTENTION
NORM ANONYMOUS
TATTOOS
I U
DISEASED
ITS
SEE
CRÉÉE A P
S UKRAINE E
P T R
PRIMAVERA Ž
PUB VIŠČIUKAS
WILL Ū
ESTIS R
QUAINTISE Ė
OR H T
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOVOLCANOCONIOSIS
AL E I
P N A
H R BARONETCY B
OVEIPEYOMAI A A
N A VENT R T
HOW C I CHUCKWILLSWIDOW T
R HARDIHOOD A ANTICONSTITUCIONALISSIMAMENTE
I E E IS N
F ACCOUNTANT JUJITSU
I ON C SOW
C E MEA
A STRAIT
B
GILIPOLLAS
L
I
HOSPITAL
I U
P DIVERGENCE
P IT
O N
PAINTING
O T
T ANTICOSTITUZIONALISSIMAMENTE
O T
M I
O B
N U
S SUBMARINE
T
R
O
S
E
S
Q КОМЕНТАРІВ
SUPERCALIFRAGILISTICEXPIALIDOCIOUS
I O
P
E
D ПОЛОЖЕНИЕ
A О
LEAP-FROG
I Р
O У
P С
H С
O К
B И
I
ALPHABET
I'm unsure what cbeast intended, but I fixed it. |
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1145
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Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add to the wordCHAIN Puzzle.
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on: January 24, 2013, 12:09:21 AM
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UPDOG
R
ALBATROZ
B
L SNOW
ATTENTION
NORM ANONYMOUS
TATTOOS
I U
DISEASED
ITS
SEE
CRÉÉE A P
S UKRAINE E
P T R
PRIMAVERA Ž
PUB VIŠČIUKAS
WILL Ū
ESTIS R
QUAINTISE Ė
OR H T
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOVOLCANOCONIOSIS
AL E I
P N A
H R BARONETCY B
OVEIPEYOMAI A A
N A VENT R T
O C I CHUCKWILLSWIDOW T
R HARDIHOOD A ANTICONSTITUCIONALISSIMAMENTE
I E E IS N
F ACCOUNTANT IT
I ON C SO
C E ME
A STRAIT
B
GILIPOLLAS
L
I
HOSPITAL
I U
P DIVERGENCE
P IT
O N
P I
O T
T ANTICOSTITUZIONALISSIMAMENTE
O T
M I
O B
N U
S SUBMARINE
T
R
O
S
E
S
Q КОМЕНТАРІВ
SUPERCALIFRAGILISTICEXPIALIDOCIOUS
I
P
E
D ПОЛОЖЕНИЕ
A О
LEAP-FROG
I Р
O У
P С
H С
O К
B И
I
ALPHABET
(+8 spaces) |
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1146
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Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-01-18 forexmagnates.com - Q4 2012 Forex Magnates Report now available
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on: January 23, 2013, 09:48:39 PM
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If you have a bone to pick it's quite easy. Calculate the TTM (trailing twelve months) of the annualized increase in Bitcoin and plot this in a graph. Splitting the increase in value on January 1st of every year is completely arbitrary.
Oh yeah, before Bitcoin existed for a year just use the annualized rate on the data that is available (so for the first day an exchange rate is known use the increase in value on that day annualized).
This is negative for a significant portion of 2012. I posted a few charts on this back then:  |
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1148
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin
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on: January 23, 2013, 08:59:35 PM
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would love to see this on a log scale, starting at zero.
What do you mean by this? i believe we have a new one
Weighted Avg:$17.19569
UTC day isn't over yet. |
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1149
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Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add to the wordCHAIN Puzzle.
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on: January 23, 2013, 08:57:59 PM
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UPDOG
R
ALBATROZ
B
L SNOW
ATTENTION
NORM ANONYMOUS
TATTOOS
I U
DISEASED
ITS
SEE
CRÉÉE A P
S U E
P T R
PRIMAVERA Ž
PUB VIŠČIUKAS
WILL Ū
ESTIS R
QUAINTISE Ė
OR H T
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOVOLCANOCONIOSIS
AL E I
P N A
H R BARONETCY B
OVEIPEYOMAI A A
N A VENT R T
O C I CHUCKWILLSWIDOW T
R HARDIHOOD A ANTICONSTITUCIONALISSIMAMENTE
I E E IS N
F ACCOUNTANT IT
I ON C SO
C E ME
A S
B
GILIPOLLAS
L
I
HOSPITAL
I U
P DIVERGENCE
P IT
O N
P I
O T
T ANTICOSTITUZIONALISSIMAMENTE
O T
M I
O B
N U
S SUBMARINE
T
R
O
S
E
S
Q
SUPERCALIFRAGILISTICEXPIALIDOCIOUS
I
P
E
D П
A О
LEAP-FROG
I Р
O У
P С
H С
O К
B И
I
ALPHABET
I added the first hyphen. This will allow for non-Latin scripts. And what a fitting word to begin with! |
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1150
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Economy / Speculation / Re: [Poll] Assuming its a bubble, when will it pop?
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on: January 23, 2013, 01:12:39 PM
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It is in fact highly unlikely that the price will both reach an all-time high and not retrace significantly. Bitcoin's history (albeit short) does not allow for this phenomenon:  Very interesting. But do you see the lows after retrace are always higher than the last all-time high? If this is correct, then we will never go below $31.9 again after the next all-time-high And don't forget, by definition, retrace is the ONLY possible event immediately following an "all-time high", or that won't be called an all-time high. I'm saying that with new highs comes departing stability. If we do reach a new high, we will not be plateauing there—up and down but not sideways. |
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1151
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Other / Off-topic / Re: False flag school shooting take #2?
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on: January 23, 2013, 01:11:30 PM
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Are you serious? People get disabilities and can even die from these school shootings, and you deny they ever happened? Have you met anyone who was injured at Sandy Hook? Did you know anyone who died? Forgive me, but skepticism demands that I note the large number of suspicious doings surrounding that and a few other shootings. All I know of it is what CNN and the other news agencies have told me, and a surprising amount of that is contradictory. If you are likewise operating on that limited, contradictory information, I could ask you why you believe the reports simply because they were on TV? Because there is no reason to make it up. If they did, they would be pointed out by people who did attend the college. There is a lot on the line and really not much to gain—there's been so many school shootings that announcing another one isn't even good for business. If I posted on these forums "xxx just moved 100000 BTC to xxx!", and there was strong evidence on the blockchain for it, there is little reason to distrust me. I initially distrust everything I read. But some things are probably not worth distrusting, because there are independent people who can verify the story themselves. |
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1152
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Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add a word to the puzzle.
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on: January 23, 2013, 04:34:29 AM
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P
R
O
B
L SNOW
ATTENTION
NORM ANONYMOUS
TATTOOS
I U
DISEASED
ITS
SEE
CRÉÉE A
S U
P T
PRIMAVERA
PUB
ILL
ESTIS
VEDANTIST
R H
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOVOLCANOCONIOSIS
L E I
P N A
H R BARONETCY B
OVEIPEYOMAI A A
N A V T R T
O C I CHUCKWILLSWIDOW T
R HARDIHOOD A ANTICONSTITUCIONALISSIMAMENTE
I E E IS N
F ACCOUNTANT I
I ON C S
C E M
A
B
I
L
I
HOSPITAL
U
D
I
N
I
T
ANTICOSTITUZIONALISSIMAMENTE
T
I
B
U
S
One letter of change. (+ added E&G's 'S') |
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1153
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Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add a word to the puzzle.
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on: January 23, 2013, 04:21:28 AM
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P
R
O
B
L SNOW
ATTENTION
NORM ANONYMOUS
TATTOOS
I U
DISEASED
ITS
S E
CRÉÉE A
S U
P T
PRIMAVERA
PUB
ILL
ESTIS
T S
R H
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOVOLCANOCONIOSIS
L E I
P N A
H R BARONETCY B
OVEIPEYOMAI A A
N A V T R T
O C I CHUCKWILLSWIDOW T
R HARDIHOOD A ANTICONSTITUCIONALISSIMAMENTE
I E E I N
F ACCOUNTANT I
I ON C S
C E M
A
B
I
L
I
HOSPITAL
U
D
I
N
I
T
ANTICOSTITUZIONALISSIMAMENTE
T
I
B
U
S
Widened the left side 8 more spaces. |
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1154
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Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add a word to the puzzle.
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on: January 23, 2013, 04:12:25 AM
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P
R
O
B
L SNOW
ATTENTION
NORM ANONYMOUS
TOO
I U
DISEASED
I S
S E
CRÉÉE A
S U
P T
PRIMAVERA
PUB
ILL
ESTIS
T S
R H
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOVOLCANOCONIOSIS
L E I
P N A
H R BARONETCY B
OVEIPEYOMAI A A
N A V T R T
O C I CHUCKWILLSWIDOW T
R HARDIHOOD A ANTICONSTITUCIONALISSIMAMENTE
I E E I N
F ACCOUNTANT I
I ON C S
C E M
A
B
I
L
I
T
U
D
I
N
I
T
ANTICOSTITUZIONALISSIMAMENTE
T
I
B
U
S
Portuguese version of the Italian anticostituzionalissimamente. (p.s. added 4 spaces to left to ease addition) |
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1155
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Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add a word to the puzzle.
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on: January 23, 2013, 04:02:40 AM
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SNOW
ATTENTION
NOR
TOO
I U
DISEASED
I S
S E
CRÉÉE A
S U
P T
PRIMAVERA
PUB
ILL
ESTIS
T S
R H
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOVOLCANOCONIOSIS
L E I
P N A
H R BARONETCY B
OVEIPEYOMAI A A
N A V T R T
O C I CHUCKWILLSWIDOW T
R HARDIHOOD A A
I E E I N
F ACCOUNTANT I
I ON C S
C E M
A
B
I
L
I
T
U
D
I
N
I
T
ANTICOSTITUZIONALISSIMAMENTE
T
I
B
U
S
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1156
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Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add a word to the puzzle.
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on: January 23, 2013, 03:53:10 AM
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ATTENTION
NOR
TOO
I U
DISEASED
I S
S E
CRÉÉE A
S U
P T
PRIMAVERA
PUB
ILL
ESTIS
T S
R H
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOVOLCANOCONIOSIS
L E I
P N A
R BARONETCY B
OVEIPEYOMAI A A
A V T R T
C I CHUCKWILLSWIDOW T
HARDIHOOD A A
E E I N
ACCOUNTANT I
ON C S
E M
Mult = Romanian |
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1157
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin
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on: January 23, 2013, 03:48:58 AM
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Interesting, what assumptions would you say are being made with this model? E.g., Why should price be modeled as the log of the rank?
This is the King effect. While the majority of data points fit onto the line, the top few are above it. This suggests that we are unlikely to have the top 10 days having a similar price, i.e. there will be a significant reduction after the top is reached. This has been particularly applicable to Bitcoin so far. They clearly don't though. The line overestimates price around 20 and underestimates around 14. That's cause my line is slightly distorted by the three kings. Slightly tilting it towards the horizontal axis would illustrate it better. |
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1158
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Other / Off-topic / Re: (something different) Add a word to the puzzle.
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on: January 23, 2013, 03:35:00 AM
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ATTENTION
NOR
TOO
I U
DISEASED
I S
S E
CRÉÉE A
S U
T
PRIMAVERA
B
L
ESTIS
S
H
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOVOLCANOCONIOSIS
E I
P N A
R BARONETCY B
OVEIPEYOMAI A A
A V T R T
C I CHUCKWILLSWIDOW T
HARDIHOOD A A
E E I N
ACCOUNTANT I
ON C S
E M
On Firefox you can plug this into the stylesheet through the web console: textarea {
font-family: monospace;
}
This simplifies inputting the word. |
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1159
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Other / Meta / Cap image width
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on: January 23, 2013, 03:30:33 AM
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Add to the stylesheet: This rescales all images to the maximum width possible without a scrollbar. We all think scrollbars are annoying, but so are downsized images by overzealous posters trying to avoid them. This seems to be a simple solution. Test below (courtesy niko):  |
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1160
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Other / Off-topic / Re: Avoiding main stream news.
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on: January 23, 2013, 03:24:50 AM
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If we decide to insulate ourselves from news because it is always negative, we are insulating ourselves from reality.
but we're talking about 'mainstream news' and you are assuming that represents reality. It is mainstream for a reason. Reality is not based upon sociology. There is no way to model it except by observing it. Mainstream news clearly does the best job at observing it; otherwise, it would not really be mainstream news. |
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