@TPTB: I have a theory regarding ETH. We all thought wallstreets would wake up to BTC at some point and they would end up buying it from us. We all thought we were front running them. What if Wallstreet has another strategy ? they back coins such as ETH, and use their enormous positions to pump the price to agitate greed inside us so we give them our rare btcs for their unlimited eth ?
Excellent! Yeah the game theory is complex. |
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@TPTB: Isn't gambling on alts very risky long term since BTC could crash anytime ? I'm always scared into putting money in ETH or XMR because while I see them increasing in BTC price at certain times, they could also decline in term of USD... I missed the latest XMR rally because of that. I saw it coming but I thought : yeah it can go x2 but btc could go down to 150...
The only speculators who are consistently winning on altcoins are those who buy/mine them when they are worthless, and then selling them when they get pumped. Long-term if you believe a particular altcoin has a feature set and adoption direction that will drive it to compete with Bitcoin, then perhaps you can justify a long-term holding and just ignore the gut wrenching volatility. I believe perhaps the Chinese felt Ethereum would be a major coin and thus I believe they have thrown BTC at it. And I think many people mined ETH because it can be mined with a GPU, thus there are many people willing to evangelize it. So it was a self-fulfilling bubble because so many people got interested in it. I do believe it will end up like Litecoin and BTS did, because fundamentally AFAICS it doesn't add anything realistic that is a huge market. But it might be good for another move up to perhaps a double-top before we are done. Right now is maximum pessimism because Vitalik admitted he sold 25%. And Homestead hype is already released. But there is still the hype coming before the release of Casper (if we haven't preempted it with the Ethereum Paradox thread, but I doubt we have that power here in this obscure forum). Right now all the CCs have to be analyzed in terms of what speculators want to buy and mine. The speculators are like a hive of bees and they move from one arbitrage to the next, not only on price but also on mining hash functions, etc.. There is a lot of game theory to analyze in this speculation ecosystem comprising Bitcoin and the altcoins. I don't really know what to advise you. I would not short BTC. I am not that confident of a crash. What I am doing is moving to cash USA dollars (because upside on speculation is limited to perhaps a 100% gain and I am more interested in preservation of capital for the moment and the US dollar should give me solid 30 - 50% gains if I hold to late 2017) and I want to buy an altcoin very cheap later this year or early 2017 to aim for 10 to 1000X long-term gain (not a pump). I think you can guess which altcoin I would want to buy because I would have the most confidence in my own role as a lead dev. The lack of timeline in the fall of BTC makes me miss alot of profit !!!
It is easy to convince ourselves of the profit we would have made, because we ignore all the wrong speculations we would have also made. In retrospect our performance is perfect, lol. @TPTB: I have a theory regarding ETH. We all thought wallstreets would wake up to BTC at some point and they would end up buying it from us. We all thought we were front running them. What if Wallstreet has another strategy ? they back coins such as ETH, and use their enormous positions to pump the price to agitate greed inside us so we give them our rare btcs for their unlimited eth ?
Excellent! Yeah the game theory is complex. |
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@TPTB: Isn't gambling on alts very risky long term since BTC could crash anytime ? I'm always scared into putting money in ETH or XMR because while I see them increasing in BTC price at certain times, they could also decline in term of USD... I missed the latest XMR rally because of that. I saw it coming but I thought : yeah it can go x2 but btc could go down to 150...
The only speculators who are consistently winning on altcoins are those who buy/mine them when they are worthless, and then selling them when they get pumped. Long-term if you believe a particular altcoin has a feature set and adoption direction that will drive it to compete with Bitcoin, then perhaps you can justify a long-term holding and just ignore the gut wrenching volatility. I believe perhaps the Chinese felt Ethereum would be a major coin and thus I believe they have thrown BTC at it. And I think many people mined ETH because it can be mined with a GPU, thus there are many people willing to evangelize it. So it was a self-fulfilling bubble because so many people got interested in it. I do believe it will end up like Litecoin and BTS did, because fundamentally AFAICS it doesn't add anything realistic that is a huge market. But it might be good for another move up to perhaps a double-top before we are done. Right now is maximum pessimism because Vitalik admitted he sold 25%. And Homestead hype is already released. But there is still the hype coming before the release of Casper (if we haven't preempted it with the Ethereum Paradox thread, but I doubt we have that power here in this obscure forum). Right now all the CCs have to be analyzed in terms of what speculators want to buy and mine. The speculators are like a hive of bees and they move from one arbitrage to the next, not only on price but also on mining hash functions, etc.. There is a lot of game theory to analyze in this speculation ecosystem comprising Bitcoin and the altcoins. I don't really know what to advise you. I would not short BTC. I am not that confident of a crash. What I am doing is moving to cash USA dollars (because upside on speculation is limited to perhaps a 100% gain and I am more interested in preservation of capital for the moment and the US dollar should give me solid 30 - 50% gains if I hold to late 2017) and I want to buy an altcoin very cheap later this year or early 2017 to aim for 10 to 1000X long-term gain (not a pump). I think you can guess which altcoin I would want to buy because I would have the most confidence in my own role as a lead dev. The lack of timeline in the fall of BTC makes me miss alot of profit !!!
It is easy to convince ourselves of the profit we would have made, because we ignore all the wrong speculations we would have also made. In retrospect our performance is perfect, lol. @TPTB: I have a theory regarding ETH. We all thought wallstreets would wake up to BTC at some point and they would end up buying it from us. We all thought we were front running them. What if Wallstreet has another strategy ? they back coins such as ETH, and use their enormous positions to pump the price to agitate greed inside us so we give them our rare btcs for their unlimited eth ?
Excellent! Yeah the game theory is complex. |
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@TPTB: Isn't gambling on alts very risky long term since BTC could crash anytime ? I'm always scared into putting money in ETH or XMR because while I see them increasing in BTC price at certain times, they could also decline in term of USD... I missed the latest XMR rally because of that. I saw it coming but I thought : yeah it can go x2 but btc could go down to 150...
The only speculators who are consistently winning on altcoins are those who buy/mine them when they are worthless, and then selling them when they get pumped. Long-term if you believe a particular altcoin has a feature set and adoption direction that will drive it to compete with Bitcoin, then perhaps you can justify a long-term holding and just ignore the gut wrenching volatility. I believe perhaps the Chinese felt Ethereum would be a major coin and thus I believe they have thrown BTC at it. And I think many people mined ETH because it can be mined with a GPU, thus there are many people willing to evangelize it. So it was a self-fulfilling bubble because so many people got interested in it. I do believe it will end up like Litecoin and BTS did, because fundamentally AFAICS it doesn't add anything realistic that is a huge market. But it might be good for another move up to perhaps a double-top before we are done. Right now is maximum pessimism because Vitalik admitted he sold 25%. And Homestead hype is already released. But there is still the hype coming before the release of Casper (if we haven't preempted it with the Ethereum Paradox thread, but I doubt we have that power here in this obscure forum). Right now all the CCs have to be analyzed in terms of what speculators want to buy and mine. The speculators are like a hive of bees and they move from one arbitrage to the next, not only on price but also on mining hash functions, etc.. There is a lot of game theory to analyze in this speculation ecosystem comprising Bitcoin and the altcoins. I don't really know what to advise you. I would not short BTC. I am not that confident of a crash. What I am doing is moving to cash USA dollars (because upside on speculation is limited to perhaps a 100% gain and I am more interested in preservation of capital for the moment and the US dollar should give me solid 30 - 50% gains if I hold to late 2017) and I want to buy an altcoin very cheap later this year or early 2017 to aim for 10 to 1000X long-term gain (not a pump). I think you can guess which altcoin I would want to buy because I would have the most confidence in my own role as a lead dev. The lack of timeline in the fall of BTC makes me miss alot of profit !!!
It is easy to convince ourselves of the profit we would have made, because we ignore all the wrong speculations we would have also made. In retrospect our performance is perfect, lol. @TPTB: I have a theory regarding ETH. We all thought wallstreets would wake up to BTC at some point and they would end up buying it from us. We all thought we were front running them. What if Wallstreet has another strategy ? they back coins such as ETH, and use their enormous positions to pump the price to agitate greed inside us so we give them our rare btcs for their unlimited eth ?
Excellent! Yeah the game theory is complex. |
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without looking it up (i'm lazy tonight) gonna state you are wrong about the comparison of man's co2 to volcanoes.
Read what Armstrong wrote as quoted in my prior post. It is the ash, not the CO2 that matters. The ash and particulate from volcanoes creates a 2-3 year cooling effect which can be world wide. however, this is not a permanant change. Armstrong's supercomputer and $billion of historical data has correlated that in fact it is a more permanent change or inflection juncture (perhaps not climate but societal). Science (data) trumps guesswork. It must kick off a cascade of effects. |
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4) Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price. People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.
The mining profit will come from increasing transaction fees × transaction volume. The problem is that increasing the block size too much will lower the fees. This is why this has been such a contentious issue. The mining cartel in China wants to make sure they can set the block size to maximize that multiplicative product. Why do others not able to deduce what is so obvious to me  This is more important than you may realize. The Chinese are trying to trade their BTC for ETH, so they can control Ethereum when it goes Proof-of-Stake in Casper. So they can control the block sizes so they can maximize the transaction fees × transaction volume multiplicative product. Realize the Chinese want to control that multiplicative product for all major CCs. They will control the #1 PoW coin Bitcoin and the #1 PoS coin Ethereum. They control Bitcoin via ASIC mining and Ethereum by owning a majority of the ETH. This is another reason ETH will rise again after BTC peaks at $500: Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.
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4) Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price. People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.
The mining profit will come from increasing transaction fees × transaction volume. The problem is that increasing the block size too much will lower the fees. This is why this has been such a contentious issue. The mining cartel in China wants to make sure they can set the block size to maximize that multiplicative product. Why do others not able to deduce what is so obvious to me This is more important than you may realize. The Chinese are trying to trade their BTC for ETH, so they can control Ethereum when it goes Proof-of-Stake in Casper. So they can control the block sizes so they can maximize the transaction fees × transaction volume multiplicative product. Realize the Chinese want to control that multiplicative product for all major CCs. They will control the #1 PoW coin Bitcoin and the #1 PoS coin Ethereum. They control Bitcoin via ASIC mining and Ethereum by owning a majority of the ETH. This is another reason ETH will rise again after BTC peaks at $500: Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.
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4) Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price. People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.
The mining profit will come from increasing transaction fees × transaction volume. The problem is that increasing the block size too much will lower the fees. This is why this has been such a contentious issue. The mining cartel in China wants to make sure they can set the block size to maximize that multiplicative product. Why do others not able to deduce what is so obvious to me This is more important than you may realize. The Chinese are trying to trade their BTC for ETH, so they can control Ethereum when it goes Proof-of-Stake in Casper. So they can control the block sizes so they can maximize the transaction fees × transaction volume multiplicative product. Realize the Chinese want to control that multiplicative product for all major CCs. They will control the #1 PoW coin Bitcoin and the #1 PoS coin Ethereum. They control Bitcoin via ASIC mining and Ethereum by owning a majority of the ETH. This is another reason ETH will rise again after BTC peaks at $500: Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.
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Maybe it is time to reload on ETH: Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.
let's see if this prediction works out, I hope it will  Any time frame ? because right now altcoin scene is a proper blood bath. ETH appears to be basing while BTC is rising. Once the BTC rally fizzles at $500ish: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1413819.msg14681667#msg14681667 |
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after the BREXIT vote.
BTC, gold down, US dollar up. Sorry man. Longer-term gold, CC up, and US dollar up. 2018+ a global monetary reset. I'm not going to argue these point by point because I feel I have already won the thread when you were talking about dumping everything at $450 and the price is $470 with no stopping in sight now. Even the TA-only traders who care nothing about Bitcoin and just want to maximize fiat are saying a push to $600 is likely pre-halving: Higher lows since then support the view imo that, although 465-500 is a resistance level, it looks more likely than not to break on this third attempt and overrun on stoploss and fomo buying to 600ish before becoming overbought
I wrote $450 - $500, not $450. I sold exactly 0.71 BTC @ $460. Haven't sold more yet. And tmfp is correct that $450 - $500 it is a resistance level. |
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The price of Monero has risen less than Ethereum in the past few months, but it has dropped faster. Why is that?
Because: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1413819.msg14678171#msg14678171I've been warning everyone here for the past months, that CC will be very volatile until 2017. Monero is a long-term HODL that you accumulate on the dips for now. It is not a get rich quick altcoin. |
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At $500+, I don't know why anyone in their sane mind would hold Bitcoin. You aren't going to make +100% gain from $500 in 2016.
Let's break out the list: 1) Because it's literally a free money asymmetric trade, which is why the price is going up. The odds of losing are far lower than gaining. That is what rpietila was preaching at $1000, $600, $300, but afair he got mighty quiet at $150. I was on the opposite side of all those calls. Hope you aren't going to repeat the fatal mistake of marrying an asset. Marriage is for once-in-a-lifetime relationship between individuals. An asset is a groupthink phenomenon. 2) There are only two monetary instruments on earth immune to cascading deflationary collapse of fractional reserve fiat from debts and loans going bad: Bitcoin and Metals.
Until at least the end of 2017, the US dollar will not be deflating because the rest of the world is already deflating, is $10+ trillion "carry trade" short the dollar, and the chaos is sending massive international capital stampeding for a safe haven in the US dollar and US dollar assets such as the USA stock market and trophy real estate. Armstrong has been predicting this since 2012 and he explaining it will radically accelerate probably after the BREXIT vote. BTC, gold down, US dollar up. Sorry man. Longer-term gold, CC up, and US dollar up. 2018+ a global monetary reset. 3) If I buy gold, it has less utility than Bitcoin. Where can I spend gold? Nowhere. All I can do with gold is mail it back to the gold dealer for 90% or less of what I paid for it. Bitcoin utility is currently higher than gold for most people, yet the market cap is zilch. Expect a correction to occur with Bitcoin market cap increasing because this is a truely distorted market if the tiny market cap asset has more acceptance and utility than the huge market cap one.
Those whales who invest in gold don't trust Bitcoin as an asset. Those who use Bitcoin for transactions are not that numerous. Bitcoin is caught in between two markets it can't do either one very well. Why do you think I am going to fix this problem! Because I see precisely where the problem is and how to fix it. 4) Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price. People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.
The mining profit will come from increasing transaction fees × transaction volume. The problem is that increasing the block size too much will lower the fees. This is why this has been such a contentious issue. The mining cartel in China wants to make sure they can set the block size to maximize that multiplicative product. Why do others not able to deduce what is so obvious to me 5) Bitcoin moves in bubbles and there was an extremely long bear market accumulation period with observable hard floors. Whenever a long accumulation period occurs on an actual liquid asset, the price explodes afterwards. If you think Bitcoin is not going to see big moves, you are mistaken.
Volume matters. We have very low volume on this rise. 6) The inflation rate is going from 8% to 4%, so it's actually a real currency now instead of some hyperinflating bullshit.
Bitcoin's volatility makes that entirely insignificant. Bitcoin can't be a currency until it has an economy where it is the unit-of-account. Well it actually has one, that is Bitcoin is the unit-of-account the crypto gambling economy. |
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At $500+, I don't know why anyone in their sane mind would hold Bitcoin. You aren't going to make +100% gain from $500 in 2016.
Let's break out the list: 1) Because it's literally a free money asymmetric trade, which is why the price is going up. The odds of losing are far lower than gaining. That is what rpietila was preaching at $1000, $600, $300, but afair he got mighty quiet at $150. I was on the opposite side of all those calls. Hope you aren't going to repeat the fatal mistake of marrying an asset. Marriage is for once-in-a-lifetime relationship between individuals. An asset is a groupthink phenomenon. 2) There are only two monetary instruments on earth immune to cascading deflationary collapse of fractional reserve fiat from debts and loans going bad: Bitcoin and Metals.
Until at least the end of 2017, the US dollar will not be deflating because the rest of the world is already deflating, is $10+ trillion "carry trade" short the dollar, and the chaos is sending massive international capital stampeding for a safe haven in the US dollar and US dollar assets such as the USA stock market and trophy real estate. Armstrong has been predicting this since 2012 and he explaining it will radically accelerate probably after the BREXIT vote. BTC, gold down, US dollar up. Sorry man. Longer-term gold, CC up, and US dollar up. 2018+ a global monetary reset. 3) If I buy gold, it has less utility than Bitcoin. Where can I spend gold? Nowhere. All I can do with gold is mail it back to the gold dealer for 90% or less of what I paid for it. Bitcoin utility is currently higher than gold for most people, yet the market cap is zilch. Expect a correction to occur with Bitcoin market cap increasing because this is a truely distorted market if the tiny market cap asset has more acceptance and utility than the huge market cap one.
Those whales who invest in gold don't trust Bitcoin as an asset. Those who use Bitcoin for transactions are not that numerous. Bitcoin is caught in between two markets it can't do either one very well. Why do you think I am going to fix this problem! Because I see precisely where the problem is and how to fix it. 4) Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price. People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.
The mining profit will come from increasing transaction fees × transaction volume. The problem is that increasing the block size too much will lower the fees. This is why this has been such a contentious issue. The mining cartel in China wants to make sure they can set the block size to maximize that multiplicative product. Why do others not able to deduce what is so obvious to me 5) Bitcoin moves in bubbles and there was an extremely long bear market accumulation period with observable hard floors. Whenever a long accumulation period occurs on an actual liquid asset, the price explodes afterwards. If you think Bitcoin is not going to see big moves, you are mistaken.
Volume matters. We have very low volume on this rise. 6) The inflation rate is going from 8% to 4%, so it's actually a real currency now instead of some hyperinflating bullshit.
Bitcoin's volatility makes that entirely insignificant. Bitcoin can't be a currency until it has an economy where it is the unit-of-account. Well it actually has one, that is Bitcoin is the unit-of-account the crypto gambling economy. |
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7) Because fucking boobs  What boobs |
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Sorry Litecoin is no longer ASIC-resistant and trading volume is too low (illiquid): Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.
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Maybe it is time to reload on ETH: Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.
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Maybe it is time to reload on ETH: Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.
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Maybe it is time to reload on ETH: Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.
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Maybe it is time to reload on ETH: Btw, I think a double-top for ETH at $15 is likely. Too much bad news has come out, sentiment is negative, and I had always said it would bounce at $7. There needs to be a GPU mineable alternative to Bitcoin, same as the role Litecoin provided. It doesn't matter that ETH has no adoption. It is purely a store-of-value arbitrage/speculation proposition.
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