Note for comparison, the last time I posted in the Monero thread (a very rare event indeed), it was to offer them a helpful suggestion on how to be sure the anonymity can not be combinatorially unmasked and also I think it enables pruning of the block chain. That was a carry over from what we learned from the Moneroman88/BCX incident where I had gotten involved to try to analyze potential attack vectors that BCX was alleging/threatening.

I also provided about a week of my time for free recently contributing the highly detailed peer review to Monero Shen's new anonymity white paper.

I never post in their BTT forum threads to attack them (well at least not in recent memory). I was posting some negative or balancing opinions in rpietila's threads in 2014 when he used to tell everyone his opinion of the only two coins (Bitcoin and XMR) worth investing in and I felt he was acting like King Whale over crypto (both of which have declined in exchange price to the dollar for the HODLers that followed his proclamations).

QUESTION: my normal logical mind tells me that whenever interest rates rise, money gets more expensive, so consequently the only true reason for doing so would be that underlying economic data shows the economy is doing well and can do without ‘help’.

A simple mind like I am tells me that a stock index should rise in case of a well doing economy. Instead I only hear markets fear a interest rate hike. Seems to me that the collective wants interest rates remain low, so stockindex growth driven higher by debt.

ANSWER: The fundamentals flipped after the shift from a private to public wave following 1929. Under the pre-1929 economics of laissez-faire, the government did not attempt to manipulate society with monetary policy. They attempted to lower U.S. interest rates to deflect capital inflows back to Europe, but they did not practice manipulating interest rates domestically to try to manage the economy. Therefore, raising interest rates before 1929 was often seen as bullish because it showed there was a demand for borrowing money due to economic expansion.

Today, the fundamentals are interpreted through the eyes of Marxism. Raising interest rates is now considered a punishment to society intended to deter them from borrowing. Yet, deflation involves declining interest rates due to the lack of interest to borrow. Some say that higher rates are bad for stocks, but they are solely looking at it as a punitive measure that will cost people more to borrow. You even have people cheering gold with lower interest rates.

None of this makes any sense economically. Nonetheless, we are looking at a sharp rise in stocks and gold along with rising interest rates, which will confuse everyone. Interest rates are the manifestation of expected inflation. If you think inflation will be 10%, you will lose money if you lend it at 5%. Interest rates are the price of expected inflation alongside the perceived risk.

Therefore, everything will take off to the upside and the majority, whom will be following the Marxist version of fundamentals, will feed the rally because they will be short. This view of fundamentals will eventually flip back, but only when the public at large sees this flip and goes with it. That is the point of no return where confidence in government collapses.

QUESTION: my normal logical mind tells me that whenever interest rates rise, money gets more expensive, so consequently the only true reason for doing so would be that underlying economic data shows the economy is doing well and can do without ‘help’.

A simple mind like I am tells me that a stock index should rise in case of a well doing economy. Instead I only hear markets fear a interest rate hike. Seems to me that the collective wants interest rates remain low, so stockindex growth driven higher by debt.

ANSWER: The fundamentals flipped after the shift from a private to public wave following 1929. Under the pre-1929 economics of laissez-faire, the government did not attempt to manipulate society with monetary policy. They attempted to lower U.S. interest rates to deflect capital inflows back to Europe, but they did not practice manipulating interest rates domestically to try to manage the economy. Therefore, raising interest rates before 1929 was often seen as bullish because it showed there was a demand for borrowing money due to economic expansion.

Today, the fundamentals are interpreted through the eyes of Marxism. Raising interest rates is now considered a punishment to society intended to deter them from borrowing. Yet, deflation involves declining interest rates due to the lack of interest to borrow. Some say that higher rates are bad for stocks, but they are solely looking at it as a punitive measure that will cost people more to borrow. You even have people cheering gold with lower interest rates.

None of this makes any sense economically. Nonetheless, we are looking at a sharp rise in stocks and gold along with rising interest rates, which will confuse everyone. Interest rates are the manifestation of expected inflation. If you think inflation will be 10%, you will lose money if you lend it at 5%. Interest rates are the price of expected inflation alongside the perceived risk.

Therefore, everything will take off to the upside and the majority, whom will be following the Marxist version of fundamentals, will feed the rally because they will be short. This view of fundamentals will eventually flip back, but only when the public at large sees this flip and goes with it. That is the point of no return where confidence in government collapses.

Maidsafe is an interesting system.

- Proof of work: Benefits owners of large mining farms.
- Proof of stake: Benefits participants with large amounts of the currency.
- Proof of importance (e.g. NEM): Benefits participants which hold and actively transfer large amounts, mostly services like online wallets and exchanges.
- Proof of burn (e.g. Slimcoin): Like Proof of Stake, it tends to benefit people with large amounts of currency, but involves more risk for the participants and the amount of time to recover investments is larger than in most PoS variants.
- Proof of disk capacity (e.g. Burst): Like Proof of work, it benefits owners of large amounts of hardware, but a different kind of hardware than PoW itself.
- "Proof of time connected" (e.g. Timekoin): Benefits people who maintain a stable node with few interruptions.

Maybe there are more, but these are the ones I know.

Now - couldn't it be a way to lower the centralization degree if you combine many of these algorithms in one single cryptocurrency? It would not stop centralization totally. But there would be not a single group, but various groups benefitting from the block rewards. So the game theory could be more complex and attacks could be more difficult.

- Proof of work: Benefits owners of large mining farms.
- Proof of stake: Benefits participants with large amounts of the currency.
- Proof of importance (e.g. NEM): Benefits participants which hold and actively transfer large amounts, mostly services like online wallets and exchanges.
- Proof of burn (e.g. Slimcoin): Like Proof of Stake, it tends to benefit people with large amounts of currency, but involves more risk for the participants and the amount of time to recover investments is larger than in most PoS variants.
- Proof of disk capacity (e.g. Burst): Like Proof of work, it benefits owners of large amounts of hardware, but a different kind of hardware than PoW itself.
- "Proof of time connected" (e.g. Timekoin): Benefits people who maintain a stable node with few interruptions.

Maybe there are more, but these are the ones I know.

Now - couldn't it be a way to lower the centralization degree if you combine many of these algorithms in one single cryptocurrency? It would not stop centralization totally. But there would be not a single group, but various groups benefitting from the block rewards. So the game theory could be more complex and attacks could be more difficult.

- Proof of work: Benefits owners of large mining farms.
- Proof of stake: Benefits participants with large amounts of the currency.
- Proof of importance (e.g. NEM): Benefits participants which hold and actively transfer large amounts, mostly services like online wallets and exchanges.
- Proof of burn (e.g. Slimcoin): Like Proof of Stake, it tends to benefit people with large amounts of currency, but involves more risk for the participants and the amount of time to recover investments is larger than in most PoS variants.
- Proof of disk capacity (e.g. Burst): Like Proof of work, it benefits owners of large amounts of hardware, but a different kind of hardware than PoW itself.
- "Proof of time connected" (e.g. Timekoin): Benefits people who maintain a stable node with few interruptions.

Maybe there are more, but these are the ones I know.

Now - couldn't it be a way to lower the centralization degree if you combine many of these algorithms in one single cryptocurrency? It would not stop centralization totally. But there would be not a single group, but various groups benefitting from the block rewards. So the game theory could be more complex and attacks could be more difficult.

Alt currencies are not investments in the eyes of existing law anyway.

If you are the guy who doesn't get it, and almost everyone else does

It has been in commercial operation for a couple years.

So, again, please cease and desist with the negative misinformation and claims.
Ask your father for a refresher on Libel & Slander.

Alt currencies are not investments in the eyes of existing law anyway.

If you are the guy who doesn't get it, and almost everyone else does

It has been in commercial operation for a couple years.

So, again, please cease and desist with the negative misinformation and claims.
Ask your father for a refresher on Libel & Slander.

Incorrect. A man without discernment is lost. You'll never have absolute proof for every decision and judgement you need to make in life. The scientific method is not absolute proof.

Your taxonomy is too strict and out of touch with reality.

I did not have a copy of the gold report from last year, but someone I communicate with did. He told me the benchmarks indicated that gold would "most likely" still make lower lows (e.g. < $1050, with the first target for a bottom of $850), and that the first possible timeframe for the low was end of Q1 2016 (contrary to what I was thinking was just after 2015.75). Upon learning that, I stopped thinking Bitcoin would move lower than the mid $200s before then.

The benchmarks stated that the USA dollar and and USA stocks had to start moving in unison as another criteria and if this wasn't the case, then the benchmark low would be pushed out in time until they do.

Thus none of his predictions have failed. Those who expect him to say "this will happen on this date" are building a strawman illogic, because MA never predicts such. His method is to provide a "if this, then that" analysis of the computer model's outputs. As I explained my post yesterday upthread, since the Euro has made MONTHLY BULLISH reversals, this indicates a move back into the Euro by the speculation markes with a potential top 117 to 125+. Thus this indicates that the USA dollar will not just break out to the upside yet (i.e. that the world's capital is not yet fleeing to seek safe haven in the USA dollar which will come eventually). And the USA stock market has been up recently, so still out-of-sync with the USA dollar. So the interpretation of this appears to be that prediction markets are expect a "No" result for the upcoming BREXIT vote this June 23, 2016. Thus USA dollar down, and if USA stocks also follow the USA dollar down, then this would be the FALSE MOVE (moving in unison) that would load the SLINGSHOT move to the upside for the newly aligned safe haven assets of the dollar, USA stocks, gold, Bitcoin, collectibles, tangibles (e.g. land), etc.. Thus the earliest date (which is also confirmed by the computer model) is the May/June followed by August, etc..

What appears to be the most likely outcome is that the EU will experience a resurgence of hot money inflows due to the "Remain" result for the BREXIT referendum. This will be a deadcat bounce extremis while the fundamentals will grow worse (fiscal, debt, migrant crises). If the USA dollar and USA stocks both decline at the same time due to this shift of the movement of hot money to the EU, Euro, UK pound, Europe stocks, then it means the world will become less risk adverse for that brief period, which will send gold down also since gold is a hedge against government failure. Whether Bitcoin also follows down is not stated by MA's model, because he isn't tracking it. But the USA dollar and USA stocks coming into alignment, would mean all safe haven assets go down. The likely event triggering such for Bitcoin is the exhale for the priced in expectation of price rise on the July halving, and also the realization that Blockstream's SegWit scaling solution is inadequate without more "soft version forks' later, but the realization that inserting this "soft fork versioning" in Bitcoin's protocol along with Blockstream cooperating with China's 65+% share (to increase on the halving as marginal miners fall away) of mining control means that Bitcoin is no longer a decentralized currency and thus Bitcoin has failed. But later the markets will rebound when they realize "nevermind" just use Bitcoin any way (and besides Bitcoin's true main market and use case is not for ideological perfect decentralized currency but rather as the unit-of-account for decentralized crypto-gambling).

Edit: this video explanation from MA, seems to indicate the FALSE MOVE described above, is expected to continue until 2017.95! Again this is really wow! So USD, USA stocks, gold, and Bitcoin could decline from this June or August until the end of 2017! Wow! The years 2018 and 2019 are going to hell on earth. We will see massive economic collapse, as well a global pandemic might resurface during this period (according to MA's cyclic models of pandemics).

MA's model provides key dates and it provides indications such as "Panic Cycle", "Directional Change", etc. on each asset analyzed. His model also provides "if this, then that" benchmarks on price reversals in both directions.

From this, the speculator can watch the market and try to interpret how the real world is matching the model and then infer decisions with a much better than 50% probability.

Something important does always happen on the ECM turn dates. For example:

1. On March 13/14 2016, the deadcat bounce of Baltic Sea index (measure of the world's trade activity) rolled over and started to decline again.

2. On 2015.75, was precisely the event that began WW3 and the stage of the conflict that sent the migrants invading Europe:


3. From my March, 2009 essay:

I did not have a copy of the gold report from last year, but someone I communicate with did. He told me the benchmarks indicated that gold would "most likely" still make lower lows (e.g. < $1050, with the first target for a bottom of $850), and that the first possible timeframe for the low was end of Q1 2016 (contrary to what I was thinking was just after 2015.75). Upon learning that, I stopped thinking Bitcoin would move lower than the mid $200s before then.

The benchmarks stated that the USA dollar and and USA stocks had to start moving in unison as another criteria and if this wasn't the case, then the benchmark low would be pushed out in time until they do.

Thus none of his predictions have failed. Those who expect him to say "this will happen on this date" are building a strawman illogic, because MA never predicts such. His method is to provide a "if this, then that" analysis of the computer model's outputs. As I explained my post yesterday upthread, since the Euro has made MONTHLY BULLISH reversals, this indicates a move back into the Euro by the speculation markes with a potential top 117 to 125+. Thus this indicates that the USA dollar will not just break out to the upside yet (i.e. that the world's capital is not yet fleeing to seek safe haven in the USA dollar which will come eventually). And the USA stock market has been up recently, so still out-of-sync with the USA dollar. So the interpretation of this appears to be that prediction markets are expect a "No" result for the upcoming BREXIT vote this June 23, 2016. Thus USA dollar down, and if USA stocks also follow the USA dollar down, then this would be the FALSE MOVE (moving in unison) that would load the SLINGSHOT move to the upside for the newly aligned safe haven assets of the dollar, USA stocks, gold, Bitcoin, collectibles, tangibles (e.g. land), etc.. Thus the earliest date (which is also confirmed by the computer model) is the May/June followed by August, etc..

What appears to be the most likely outcome is that the EU will experience a resurgence of hot money inflows due to the "Remain" result for the BREXIT referendum. This will be a deadcat bounce extremis while the fundamentals will grow worse (fiscal, debt, migrant crises). If the USA dollar and USA stocks both decline at the same time due to this shift of the movement of hot money to the EU, Euro, UK pound, Europe stocks, then it means the world will become less risk adverse for that brief period, which will send gold down also since gold is a hedge against government failure. Whether Bitcoin also follows down is not stated by MA's model, because he isn't tracking it. But the USA dollar and USA stocks coming into alignment, would mean all safe haven assets go down. The likely event triggering such for Bitcoin is the exhale for the priced in expectation of price rise on the July halving, and also the realization that Blockstream's SegWit scaling solution is inadequate without more "soft version forks' later, but the realization that inserting this "soft fork versioning" in Bitcoin's protocol along with Blockstream cooperating with China's 65+% share (to increase on the halving as marginal miners fall away) of mining control means that Bitcoin is no longer a decentralized currency and thus Bitcoin has failed. But later the markets will rebound when they realize "nevermind" just use Bitcoin any way (and besides Bitcoin's true main market and use case is not for ideological perfect decentralized currency but rather as the unit-of-account for decentralized crypto-gambling).

Edit: this video explanation from MA, seems to indicate the FALSE MOVE described above, is expected to continue until 2017.95! Again this is really wow! So USD, USA stocks, gold, and Bitcoin could decline from this June or August until the end of 2017! Wow! The years 2018 and 2019 are going to hell on earth. We will see massive economic collapse, as well a global pandemic might resurface during this period (according to MA's cyclic models of pandemics).

MA's model provides key dates and it provides indications such as "Panic Cycle", "Directional Change", etc. on each asset analyzed. His model also provides "if this, then that" benchmarks on price reversals in both directions.

From this, the speculator can watch the market and try to interpret how the real world is matching the model and then infer decisions with a much better than 50% probability.

Something important does always happen on the ECM turn dates. For example:

1. On March 13/14 2016, the deadcat bounce of Baltic Sea index (measure of the world's trade activity) rolled over and started to decline again.

2. On 2015.75, was precisely the event that began WW3 and the stage of the conflict that sent the migrants invading Europe:


3. From my March, 2009 essay:

lol, moving targets. He is trying to be prophet, yet he knows shit what will happen. I remember last year how he preached about BTC and Gold hitting the bottom. Since then BTC up 100%, Gold up +20%.

His problem is that he is trying to explain and predict what is going to happen with freebies that MA puts out here and there. Well, even MA was wrong this time, even though he won't admit it.

Putin invaded Syria precisely on September 30, 2015, which was to the day of 2015.75. That warned that whatever takes place right on the day becomes the main focus. Putin then withdrew precisely on pi day. So what is taking place from the Middle East will break the back of Europe economically as governments seek to raise taxes to pay for the pretend “refugees” as well as extremists who have infiltrated Europe and destabilized its borders and security. This is unwinding the entire freedom of movement within Europe which was the cornerstone of the EU concept. With borders resurfacing, Brussels begins its decline.

Even 9/11 took place right on our pi target from the peak in the ECM. This is starting to demonstrate that there is, in fact, a cycle to this type of activity that is following the 8.6 frequency. The Madrid attack on the train was March 11, 2004, or 2004.19. If we project target dates from the USA 9/11 incident, we arrive at 2004.16, which was March 1 or 10 days earlier before the attack. We have been running various terrorist attacks through our models. The list is indeed long (see Wikipedia). Nonetheless, it appears that certain groups do fall into unique cycle frequencies. This appears to enable one to determine which group was behind what.

2002.780 Indonesia Bali Oct 12, 2002
2002.810 Moscow October 23, 2002
2003.372 Morocco, Casablanca May 16, 2003
2003.361 Riyadh Saudi Arabia May 12, 2003
2003.887 Turkey, Istanbul November 20, 2003
2004.191 Madrid March 11, 2004
2004.668 Beslan, Russia September 1 – 3, 2004

Let’s face the facts. The Economic Confidence Model works with such precision it is often mind-numbing. This is monitoring human activity as a coherent, collective economic entity of “civilization” that materializes by people coming together. I suppose it makes sense that we are influenced collectively to respond with a cyclical rhythm. It appears the same is reflected in terrorist activity.

I don't know if anyone else has commented already, that Martin Armstrong's "It Is Just Time" prediction made back in October 2008, for a major turn event on March 19, nailed the exact day (after) the Fed announced to start buying government bonds directly.

He had also predicted ahead of time the turn that coincided with the peak in the precious metals prices last March 2008.

Google "Martin Armstrong", for the remarkable story about how accurate his computer model predictions have been, and him being in the maximum security prison without a trial, together with the Shoe Bomber and the Unibomber, alledgedly because of his unwillingness to share his model with the CIA.

Yes thats true, but everytime there is a massive deflation, the central banks start injecting M1 money into the economy via QE.

If you are that smart why you didn't come up with segwit? :p

Are you going to make a super coin that fixes everything? I would if I was that smart.

In the video, Vitalik has fallen for the standard technocrat fallacy where he embraces this system of top down control because he fantasizes about himself being part of the controller class.

In movies like "Margin Call", which is a pretty accurate representation of our civilization, the smartest people tend to be involved in creating Rube Goldberg financial products to siphon wealth from the majority.

Don't even try to kid yourself, people like you are a dime a dozen in this age.

...The only reason they haven't seen an atomic bomb go off is because they're praying they can attract some new, greater fool contestents post-BTC halving.  ...  Any rise on BTC is black death misery on alts.