Honestly that just seems like escrow that on-chain doesn't look like escrow due to the usage of Schnorr signatures? Because what the oracle does, does not seem to be much different from a classical escrow with a 2-of-3 signature scheme, with a rather arbitrary broader definition of what the escrow/oracle does (ie. both escrows and oracle functionally merely decide to whom the money goes). I might be missing something tho. Anyways, if the data feed is going to be determined by humans, there will be ways to manipulate the outcome. So the data feed needs to come from a source difficult to manipulate like a blockchain.
To be fair they do address this issue and having the outcome determined by a off-chain source seems to be the whole point of DLCs. |
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Prediction 1: $28,922.60
bech32 address: bc1qwvnm4g4jfjg5nr0pzu9mxdyu865f24nc0dckhv
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I don't understand, how do you add crypto currencies to a 60/40 stocks/bond portfolio? Isn't it already at a 100, where do we get the 84.9% for Bitcoins from? By reducing the positions held in stocks and bonds: Starting with a 60-40 equity-bond portfolio, which is produced with a risk aversion of 𝛾 = 1.50, the optimal BTC allocation is a large 84.9%! The remainder of the portfolio, 15.1% is split 60-40 between equities and bonds. To me this number seems really high. It is, and if you look at the paper itself you'll see it's just one particular way of modelling optimal exposure. Another model that they use in the paper comes to a more conventional conclusion of 9.5%. Blackrock is the largest ETF company in the world and the main selling point of ETFs is to buy the index as it's cheap and offers a high level of diversification. Putting now almost everything into one investment seems very risky. While BlackRock's ETFs offer diversification, it's still up to the individual investors themselves to stay reasonably diversified. If their filing for a Bitcoin ETF succeeds, it won't matter for BlackRock how your portfolio structured, as long as it contains ETFs on which they make money. |
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I tried reading the entire paper but because of my very limited comprehension capacity of the technicalities the authors were talking about, I decided not to continue.
I assume those who cherry-picked didn't also thoroughly understand the paper. They spread the cherry-picked lines, nonetheless. OP is one of them. There are many others in social media who did the same. Even those who I think are capable of separating the wheat from the chaff are equally irresponsible for spreading it.
Worse, they are putting words in BlackRock's mouth. This isn't BlacRock's opinion. This is not a study done by BlackRock. BlackRock has nothing to do with it. Those who started spreading this fake news are just using the huge brand to create a baseless FOMO.
To be fair the paper is by a team entirely of BlackRock employees, with full disclosure of them working for BlackRock to the point that it even includes BlackRock's boilerplate disclaimer appendix, including copyright notice. So while it's not BlackRock's official opinion, it does indeed appear to be sanctioned by the company, at least to some extend. Either way, I don't think you'll ever find a company like BlackRock taking an official stance outside of carefully constructed messaging. Their CEO could say that the sky is blue and it would still come with the disclaimer that his views are his alone and do not express the views of BlackRock. That being said, this kind of sensationalism does, in my opinion, not help Bitcoin's image. It's a stupidly high allocation that no one that isn't already convinced of crypto would take serious. Heck, even within crypto you'd probably be at the bleeding edge with this kind of allocation -- though admittedly, without active reallocation, Bitcoin tends to take portfolios over all by itself. |
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Anyway, the subject is misleading. You should correct it lest it be misunderstood as a mega-bullish stand of BlackRock. This actually isn't BlackRock's opinion or view. This is simply the personal view of the three authors who happened to be working with BlackRock. But this study is not in any way sanctioned by BlackRock itself.
I'm not sure I'd even call it the personal view of the authors. If you read the paper, the number quoted by OP (and various crypto-news outlets) is not even the conclusion. It's just the cherry picked result of one of two mathematical asset allocation models being applied to Bitcoin. The other model they apply, Cumulative Prospect Theory, comes to a slightly different conclusion: In order to obtain finite solutions, we change the mean of BTC in the normal regime to correspond to a loss of 90%. That is, we set exp(𝜇2) = 0.1, or 𝜇2 = −2.303. We also change the probability of the bliss regime to 𝑝 = 0.001, with the same mean, 𝜇1, and standard deviation, 𝜎1, of the BTC bliss regime as the empirical estimate reported in Exhibit 3. This distribution has the same extreme right-hand tail payoff as the original process, but it occurs with a much smaller probability, 𝑝 = 0.001, versus the empirical estimate of 𝑝 = 0.036. Even with this tiny probability, the optimal BTC holding is 9.5% holding the 28-72 equity-bond portfolio fixed in pro-rata allocations. Exhibit 7, Panel B plots the CPT utility function for the three-asset BTC-equities-bonds portfolio. The maximum utlity corresponds to the optimal BTC holding of 9.5%, with the equity and bond holdings being held in the same 28-72 pro-rata allocation for the remaining 90.5% of the portfolio. TL;DR: The authors apply two models, one resulting in a BTC allocation of 84.9% and a risk averse one, resulting in a BTC allocation of 9.5%. The latter one is not newsworthy nowadays, so of course everyone is only focusing on the bigger number. (even 9.5% percent would still be huge, mind you) |
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Prediction 2: $29,612.00
bech32 address: bc1qwvnm4g4jfjg5nr0pzu9mxdyu865f24nc0dckhv
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Secondly, what is the purpose of sign message that I use to hear and see? How do I sign a message? Is the sign use to approve transaction? I don't know how to sign a message and the exchanges have never require me to sign a message before.
The purpose of signing a message is so that you can prove that a certain address belongs to you (or at least that you have access to its private keys). This is useful for e.g. proving that you hold a specific amount of coins (e.g. when promising payment or run a business where you store customers' coins) or to verify that you are the same person (e.g. when updating a payout address or when you forget your password). How to sign a message depends on the wallet you are using. With Electrum for example you can find the option to sign a message either under "Tools" or when right clicking on an address in your list of addresses (you might have to enable this tab under "View" first). The hardware wallets are a little bit expensive for small holders(price of one is like $50) but they actually provide the best security.
Generally yes, but it's worth mentioning that Ledger is to be considered compromised at this point: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5452900.0 |
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Danke für ein weiteres Gewinnspiel, @Turbartuluk! Ich geb auch schon mal meinen Tipp ab bevor die ganzen "guten" Positionen vergeben sind  Bitcointalk-Nutzername: HeRetiK
Niedrigster Bitcoin-Preis bis 31. Dezember 2023 um 23.59.59 UTC: 28.900$
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Never heard of that exchange, though given the amount of new exchanges that have popped up (and disappeared) over time that doesn't mean much.
Hard to tell how much of the trading volume and order book is fake, but in the optimistic case that the numbers are real, you'll want a spread that's maybe 1% max with positions that are large enough to absorb whatever amount you want to buy or sell (though popular trading pairs with great liquidity like BTC/USD should usually have a spread of less than 0.1%).
Apart from the one you mentioned I'm not aware of any exchanges that only charge for profitable trades, though a lot have a maker/taker fee structure where placing a limit order will incur a lower fee than buying at market. I'm not quite sure whether zero commission with 10% on profits is really worth it, in the end. Even a trade netting you a mere 10% would set you back 1% in comissions which is already way above the usual rate you'll find elsewhere. So in the end it would only be worth it if you expect to lose money, but where would be the fun in that?
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Prediction 1: $30,112.00
bech32 address: bc1qwvnm4g4jfjg5nr0pzu9mxdyu865f24nc0dckhv
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Hach so ein Gewinnspiel ist doch immer wieder was schönes. Danke 1miau!
Bitcointalk-Nutzername: HeRetiK
Höchster Bitcoin-Preis bis 31. Dezember 2023 um 23.59.59 UTC: $ 49.800
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Spannendes Gewinnspiel, Danke @Turbartuluk!
Ich versuch mal vorsichtig optimistisch zu sein.
Bitcointalk-Nutzername: HeRetiK
Niedrigster Bitcoin-Preis bis 31. Dezember 2023 um 23.59.59 UTC: $24.800
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Kaum kommen die ein paar grüne Kerzen, flippen mache aus 300k ist schon gewagt Bitcoin Kurs Prognose: 300.000 Dollar – bis 2025! Top-Analyst erklärt: Darum explodiert BTC jetzt auf neue Rekord-Hochs Bitcoin über 30.000 Dollar – und die Bullen machen offenbar auch keine Anstalten, die Rallye zu verlangsamen: BlackRock, Deutsche Bank, Charles Schwab – sie alle setzen auf BTC und Co., beflügeln damit den Kurs! Ein beliebter Analyst hat deshalb seine Prognose aktualisiert: Er sieht BTC auf 300.000 Dollar explodieren – und das schon innerhalb der nächsten 24 Monate. Ein 10x für BTC – was sollten Anleger jetzt wissen? Bitcoin: Prognose sieht Kurs bis 2025 bei 300.000 Dollar Quelle: https://coincierge.de/2023/bitcoin-kurs-prognose-300-000-dollar-bis-2025-top-analyst-erklaert-darum-explodiert-btc-jetzt-auf-neue-rekord-hochs/Was ist eure Meinung dazu? Ein 10x möglich in dem kurzen Zeitraum? Viele grüße Willi Möglich? Ja. Wahrscheinlich? Nein. Der letzte Bullmarket hat meiner Meinung nach gezeigt das Bitcoins zyklisches Wachstum langsam an seine Grenzen gerät. Ich denke zwar das Bitcoin auch in Zukunft noch gut performen wird, aber 300k seh ich persönlich innerhalb des nächsten Zyklus nicht wirklich (auch wenn ich's nicht kategorisch ausschließen würde). Gegenargument: Durch die Krisen der letzten Jahre ist das letzte Bitcoin ATH niedriger ausgefallen als es eigentlich hätte sein sollen. Dann wäre der letzte Zyklus nur ein Ausreisser nach unten, was bedeuted dass die kommenden Zyklen wieder zu größerem, "normalen" Wachstum zurückkehren könnten. Gegenargument zum Gegenargument: Bitcoin hat bisher nur in einem Umfeld mit extrem niedrigen Leitzins gelebt womit der nächste Zyklus absolutes Neuland ist. |
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Prediction 2: $25,610.10
bech32 address: bc1qwvnm4g4jfjg5nr0pzu9mxdyu865f24nc0dckhv
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Shows you exactly where their priorities lie. Instead of actually addressing this mess, they focus instead on implementing more shitcoins and staking to drive more profits for themselves.
Security is so boring! Shitcoins are the real important stuff!
The sad thing is, it works. Turns out they really do know their target audience. I guess crypto is in a pretty cursed state right now -- too niche for everyday use, too mainstream for the crypto-literate people to stay in the majority. “Backdoor would mean that we control all ledger devices and could run automated updates for example… That’s not the case. Will never be the case. Only you can use functions on your ledger. No one else can enter your pin code and press those buttons…”
inb4 the introduction of Ledger Autopilot™ -- Keep your hardware wallet automatically updated without any hassle for just $19.99,- a month!* *subscription fee withdrawn automatically for your convenience |
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The CTO just shared this on Twitter. Ledger's open source roadmap:  Your thoughts? Sooo... where are we on this roadmap? I was promised some blog posts. Did I miss the blog posts? Or did they just a slap some random bullshit timeline together with no intention of sticking even to the bare minimum? It's almost as if they've quietly moved on from that matter... |
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Prediction 1: $25,813.12
bech32 address: bc1qwvnm4g4jfjg5nr0pzu9mxdyu865f24nc0dckhv
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Username : HeRetiK
BTC addy : bc1qwvnm4g4jfjg5nr0pzu9mxdyu865f24nc0dckhv
Good luck everyone!
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