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3721  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction contest: when will bitcoin break $4? or will it never break $4? on: December 20, 2011, 06:19:43 PM
jeeesh! how much prize money are we talking about? or is this about "being right"?

As I clearly pointed out, it is about fairness.  Amount of winnings is irrelevant.
3722  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 06:18:31 PM
old_engineer tried to be as fair as possible to all players, you gotta give him credit for that and put this to rest.

it is also doubtful that you haven't seen that thread between first posting in it and yesterday

It's not exactly a thread that I needed to keep tabs on... "Omg, I wonder what this person guessed....omg, I wonder what this person guessed."

I put in a guess, forgot about it, then saw that the price was nearing $4 yesterday, and so the thread kept appearing atop my "show unread posts since last visit" link. 

It still doesn't change the fact that it was impossible for me to have won.  Since the GMT rule was implemented, I could not have guessed Dec. 20th because Goat had already guessed it.  So, the rule itself made it impossible for me to win because my guess would be nullified if I changed it to the "winning" date.

I will put it to rest after it has been addressed, just like any marketplace scam.
3723  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction contest: when will bitcoin break $4? or will it never break $4? on: December 20, 2011, 06:10:31 PM
The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.
Actually, you would have won if it spiked yesterday. I don't see how you can deem that IMPOSSIBLE.

The "first guesser" rule actually implied there is some standard timezone, otherwise you can't determine which person was first. The fact that you (randomly?) assumed it was your subjective timezone, out of the possible 40 timezones on land seems kind of arbitrary. In any international environment like this forum, it is very reasonable to assume Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as the de facto standard, unless otherwise specified.

I'm done arguing.

This is where you are wrong.  The first guesser rule implies that the "standard" timezone is the subjective time zone...or the time zone that corresponds to each guesser.  This combines both objectivity (or the syntactic rule that distributes to everyone) and subjectivity (allows for the relative position of each player).  This makes it simple....the first person to post on the thread is the "first guesser."  First simply refers to order...but all time zones are "present," though relative. 
3724  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 06:07:20 PM
i will tell you honestly the joint, after this thread i will probably ignore any future offerings (services,products,etc) from you if such may come to light. simply because of such a huge deal you've made over rules disagreement in a stupid game

the 1 btc is a gift, not a loan, enjoy it.

Check out my rep in honest traders.

you can be top notch honest guy, but i don't want anything to do with loony fruitcake side of you Wink

That's up to you.

it's pretty simple, watching this thread makes me think that any other simple misunderstandings could escalate to similar proportions.

Fallacy of generalizing the specific, but that's yours to make.

This is simply an issue of fairness.  I am not treating this any differently than if it were a marketplace scam.  Unfairness is the common denominator of each situation, and that is what I am focusing on.
3725  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 06:00:23 PM
The joint,

No offense I like you alot, and enjoy reading your posts, but you're complaining about being burned for 5BTC while still having a link to a ponzi-scheme on your sig. It's kind of an oxymoron if you know what I mean...

First, yes, I don't have a lot of money.  5 BTC to me is much more valuable than it is for some people.

And I'm complaining about being burned, not about being burned for 5 BTC.  I have many many posts warning the community about potential scammers when I noticed something was fishy.  I have always stated my problem with scams and have been genuine and honest in all my transactions on here.

All I am asking for is that honesty and fairness be returned in my direction.  I either 1.) Won the game fair and square or 2.)  Lost the game due to statistical unfairness.  I dont care if it was for .01 BTC, I would react  much the same way.  The principle is what is important to me here.  The amount of BTC is a mitigating factor.

And thanks for the compliment.
3726  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:57:09 PM
i will tell you honestly the joint, after this thread i will probably ignore any future offerings (services,products,etc) from you if such may come to light. simply because of such a huge deal you've made over rules disagreement in a stupid game

the 1 btc is a gift, not a loan, enjoy it.

this is exactly the problem he is creating for himself that he can't see.  people like the joint focus only on technicalities and ignore social customs or grace.  and we wonder why our society faces such challenges.
Let's not forget such things as this: "The smartest student, I think, is the one who finds the most efficient means of passing any examination or test they come across. Yes, even by cheating."

We could say lying is also allowable by such an attitude, which is precisely the sort of thinking that causes the most harm to society. Lie, cheat, steal -- do whatever it takes to get ahead. For someone who posts regularly on the forums to say that he "never saw the rule change" is unlikely at best. I know I wouldn't trust the joint either after this little diatribe.


Do you even know what I meant by that and in what context?

Please do not assume you know exactly what I meant.  At least show the other members the context of that quote if you're going to use it.  For example, there are studies that show that children who are pathological liars are typically more intelligent (according to the g factor) than their peers because they are able to avoid negative consequences of their actions.  My "quote" was grounded in research AND rooted in a much different context.
3727  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:54:03 PM
i will tell you honestly the joint, after this thread i will probably ignore any future offerings (services,products,etc) from you if such may come to light. simply because of such a huge deal you've made over rules disagreement in a stupid game

the 1 btc is a gift, not a loan, enjoy it.

Check out my rep in honest traders.

you can be top notch honest guy, but i don't want anything to do with loony fruitcake side of you Wink

That's up to you.
3728  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:53:27 PM
Isn't Universal Time the default when you are talking to audience from many different timezones?

With a world audience, yes, as is the case with this forum community.  If one wants to specify a time zone - like, say, CST - there's nothing stopping you.  I was even going to honor BTC_bear's day prediction of "Monday" because it amused me.

Also, the general method of conflict resolution is PM, _then_ public discussion. the_joint went straight to posting a new thread, and far more than 5 btc worth of time has been wasted on this silly contest result.

I posted this in the original thread, thought I should crosspost here (and is likely my last post on the matter):
This was a free contest, not a mutually-agreed upon contract.  Ambiguity was pointed out in the rules, and they were clarified in the original thread and broadcast to all participants.  Burden of checking thread falls to the participants.  I had no obligation to individually notify guessers of the clarified rules - did you really expect me to PM everyone that had guessed to see if they wanted to change their weeks-from-now guess based on the time zone clarification?  That's stupid.  No, I'm not sending you any btc.

And I sent Goat 10 btc because he mentioned orphans (which I sent before you posted your butthurt thread, FWIW - I wasn't trying to spite you).


I did send you a PM after you had sent Goat the BTC.  You have not replied.  I had made my case repeatedly in threads before making comments about you personally.  But, you did not find my reasoning to be correct and so you sent goat the BTC.  That is when I began making threads such as this one.
3729  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:50:22 PM
i will tell you honestly the joint, after this thread i will probably ignore any future offerings (services,products,etc) from you if such may come to light. simply because of such a huge deal you've made over rules disagreement in a stupid game

the 1 btc is a gift, not a loan, enjoy it.

this is exactly the problem he is creating for himself that he can't see.  people like the joint focus only on technicalities and ignore social customs or grace.  and we wonder why our society faces such challenges.

And I'm sure making such a comment that is about me but not addressed to me really shows your own social graces.  And we wonder why...
3730  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:48:54 PM
i will tell you honestly the joint, after this thread i will probably ignore any future offerings (services,products,etc) from you if such may come to light. simply because of such a huge deal you've made over rules disagreement in a stupid game

the 1 btc is a gift, not a loan, enjoy it.

Check out my rep in honest traders.
3731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction contest: when will bitcoin break $4? or will it never break $4? on: December 20, 2011, 05:45:43 PM
If $4 had been reached a day earlier, and you would have been pointed out as a winner, would you have said "Oh, no, never mind actually, the moment of breaking $4 was not on that day in my timezone, so I don't want the reward"?

No, that's why there is the "first guesser" clarification in the rules.  This point is irrelevant.  First guesser wins in the event of a tie (i.e. multiple winners, as was the case).

The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.
3732  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction contest: when will bitcoin break $4? or will it never break $4? on: December 20, 2011, 05:43:59 PM
But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

I didn't even VIEW the post again after it was specified until yesterday!

Imagine singing up with Mt. Gox, making a transaction under the premise that your commission rate is .56%.  Then, you go to bed.  2 weeks later, you go back on your account and you find, low and behold the commission rate for that transaction 2 weeks ago is 10%.  You become (naturally) pissed, because the rules of the game changed and you were not made aware of it.
This was a free contest, not a mutually-agreed upon contract.  Ambiguity was pointed out in the rules, and they were clarified in the original thread and broadcast to all participants.  Burden of checking thread falls to the participants.  I had no obligation to individually notify guessers of the clarified rules - did you really expect me to PM everyone that had guessed to see if they wanted to change their weeks-from-now guess based on the time zone clarification?  That's stupid.  No, I'm not sending you any btc.

And I sent Goat 10 btc because he mentioned orphans (which I sent before you posted your butthurt thread, FWIW - I wasn't trying to spite you).

Whether it is a free contest or not is irrelevant.

The statistical nature of the game was slanted against me due to your "rule."

It was free but unfair.

Promises are "free" too...they don't cost a thing, but breaking them is dishonest.  Yes I do expect you to PM everyone to notify them of the rule change.   PhinneusGage apparently had no problem when I raised a legitimate concern that I may forget about the thread, and thus I should be notified personally when my donations are expected.  He seemed to think this was doable.  I think it's more stupid that GMT or UTC should be the deciding factor when individual time zones make more sense.  Apparently, people in this very thread seem to be at odds over which time zone would be most appropriate anyway...some say GMT, some say UTC, and others agree with me.  Given that anyone that makes the same guess (e.g. Dec. 20th) as someone else has their guess immediately nullified due to the "first guesser" rule, the implementation of your GMT rule MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ME TO WIN.

What if, after your GMT rule, I wanted to change my guess to Dec. 20th?  Well, I wouldn't be able to do that if Goat had already guessed it.  So, your rule made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.
3733  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:34:19 PM
Your kindness is very welcome Smiley  I will send you back your 1 BTC if either OldEngineer or Goat decide to send the 5 BTC to the rightful winner.

Now you want Goat to send you BTC?  Goat won fairly too... I think the fair solution is to give each of you 5.

I would be (more) happy with 2.5 BTC to each rather than 5 BTC to each.
3734  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:32:42 PM
Nothing like a poor loser starting a new thread. Old_engineer, started the contest, someone said "what time zone" rather early on, and he said "GMT". GMT is the standard time zone in many things because it is the standard. You know, the way that Central time is referred commonly listed as "UTC - 06:00" just to explicitly show what time zone it is? And of course UTC is the replacement of GMT (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time).

Why would anyone use GMT as the standard? Because it is. When you're dealing with a global environment, what else would you use? Anyway, you lost out on 5BTC because you got in early on a free contest, never corrected your vote (basically because you had a lucky guess), and now you're whining about it. Welcome to the Internet.

All of that is irrelevant since I cast my guess before GMT was even mentioned.

As a result, I never viewed the thread again until yesterday.  So, I was completely made unaware of this rule.  Hence, the game was played under different rules by different players.

Isn't Universal Time the default?

OMG, is this how you all live your lives?

Do you all walk around living your lives according to GMT or universal time or whatever?

Jesus Christ, this isn't hard to understand.  I live in Illinois, so I made a guess based upon my time zone.   When my friend asks me "hey, what time are we going to dinner?"  I don't know about you but I always make sure to ask him, "You mean, Illinois time or Japan time?"

When you are talking to people from all possible time zones the only universal time is UTC, this is the common reference point.

I've talked internationally with many foreigners through chat, pm, IM, etc.

Never once has UTC ever come up.  It's more like, "What time is it where you live?"
so you can win, by telling a lie about where you live? nice.

I can prove where I live.
3735  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:31:47 PM
how's OldEngineer was supposed to notify everyone?

That's not my problem, I was the player.

I've sent you 1BTC, Marry Christmas dude!  i don't believe OE is in a wrong here as painted in the OP subject, he did best he could to be fair to everyone; didn't solicit for payments to run away, nothing to fight over really, it was just a fun game.

If the "fun game" was for 1000 BTC, I have a feeling more of you would understand where I am coming from.

The question of whether it's 5 BTC or 1000 BTC is unimportant.  It's a matter of integrity and fairness.  The game was not played fairly as the rule changed the statistical nature of the game.  Statistical rules became different for players casting guesses before the new rule compared with those casting guesses after.

Your kindness is very welcome Smiley  I will send you back your 1 BTC if either OldEngineer or Goat decide to send the 5 BTC to the rightful winner.
3736  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:29:10 PM
Nothing like a poor loser starting a new thread. Old_engineer, started the contest, someone said "what time zone" rather early on, and he said "GMT". GMT is the standard time zone in many things because it is the standard. You know, the way that Central time is referred commonly listed as "UTC - 06:00" just to explicitly show what time zone it is? And of course UTC is the replacement of GMT (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time).

Why would anyone use GMT as the standard? Because it is. When you're dealing with a global environment, what else would you use? Anyway, you lost out on 5BTC because you got in early on a free contest, never corrected your vote (basically because you had a lucky guess), and now you're whining about it. Welcome to the Internet.

All of that is irrelevant since I cast my guess before GMT was even mentioned.

As a result, I never viewed the thread again until yesterday.  So, I was completely made unaware of this rule.  Hence, the game was played under different rules by different players.

Isn't Universal Time the default?

OMG, is this how you all live your lives?

Do you all walk around living your lives according to GMT or universal time or whatever?

Jesus Christ, this isn't hard to understand.  I live in Illinois, so I made a guess based upon my time zone.   When my friend asks me "hey, what time are we going to dinner?"  I don't know about you but I always make sure to ask him, "You mean, Illinois time or Japan time?"

When you are talking to people from all possible time zones the only universal time is UTC, this is the common reference point.

I've talked internationally with many foreigners through chat, pm, IM, etc.

Never once has UTC ever come up.  It's more like, "What time is it where you live?"
3737  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:27:47 PM
Nothing like a poor loser starting a new thread. Old_engineer, started the contest, someone said "what time zone" rather early on, and he said "GMT". GMT is the standard time zone in many things because it is the standard. You know, the way that Central time is referred commonly listed as "UTC - 06:00" just to explicitly show what time zone it is? And of course UTC is the replacement of GMT (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time).

Why would anyone use GMT as the standard? Because it is. When you're dealing with a global environment, what else would you use? Anyway, you lost out on 5BTC because you got in early on a free contest, never corrected your vote (basically because you had a lucky guess), and now you're whining about it. Welcome to the Internet.

All of that is irrelevant since I cast my guess before GMT was even mentioned.

As a result, I never viewed the thread again until yesterday.  So, I was completely made unaware of this rule.  Hence, the game was played under different rules by different players.
When you make a game, you can decide on the rules. If someone makes a game with unclear rules and then "changes" them with a clarifying comment, it's up to the players to conform to the rule changes.

Dude, do you know what deception is?
Deception:
1. The use of deceit.
2. The fact or state of being deceived.
3. A ruse; a trick.

Whining:
1. To utter a plaintive, high-pitched, protracted sound, as in pain, fear, supplication, or complaint.
2. To complain or protest in a childish fashion.
3. To produce a sustained noise of relatively high pitch.

Which is more likely out of those two? If Old_engineer didn't pay up to anyone, that would be deceit; if he simply chooses to pay someone else because according to his rules that person won, that's nothing of the sort. If you'd like to try and convince the actual winner to part with half of his winnings, that would be a better approach, but they're by no means obligated to do so.

I did and will continue to do so.  To be fair, this isn't mere "whining."  I feel as though I have been treated unfairly (and, of course, my guess was made under different rules).  The implementation of the rule changes changes the nature of the game.  What if, upon knowing this rule change, I wanted to switch my guess?  What if that new guess had already been taken by someone else?  The implementation of the rule adjusts the STATISTICS of the game.  As guesses were cast both before and after the rule change, those who guessed before the rule and wanted to change their guess would be forced to pick from a MORE CONSTRAINED SET OF DAYS.  This naturally affects a persons' chances of winning.  Thus, the game was ultimately slanted.

3738  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:20:48 PM
Nothing like a poor loser starting a new thread. Old_engineer, started the contest, someone said "what time zone" rather early on, and he said "GMT". GMT is the standard time zone in many things because it is the standard. You know, the way that Central time is referred commonly listed as "UTC - 06:00" just to explicitly show what time zone it is? And of course UTC is the replacement of GMT (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time).

Why would anyone use GMT as the standard? Because it is. When you're dealing with a global environment, what else would you use? Anyway, you lost out on 5BTC because you got in early on a free contest, never corrected your vote (basically because you had a lucky guess), and now you're whining about it. Welcome to the Internet.

All of that is irrelevant since I cast my guess before GMT was even mentioned.

As a result, I never viewed the thread again until yesterday.  So, I was completely made unaware of this rule.  Hence, the game was played under different rules by different players.

Isn't Universal Time the default?

Is this how you all live your lives?

Do you all walk around living your lives according to GMT or universal time or whatever?

Jesus Christ, this isn't hard to understand.  I live in Illinois, so I made a guess based upon my time zone.   If my friend asks me, "Hey, what time are we going to dinner?", I don't know about you but I always make sure to ask him, "You mean, Illinois time or Japan time?"
3739  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:17:20 PM
Nothing like a poor loser starting a new thread. Old_engineer, started the contest, someone said "what time zone" rather early on, and he said "GMT". GMT is the standard time zone in many things because it is the standard. You know, the way that Central time is referred commonly listed as "UTC - 06:00" just to explicitly show what time zone it is? And of course UTC is the replacement of GMT (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time).

Why would anyone use GMT as the standard? Because it is. When you're dealing with a global environment, what else would you use? Anyway, you lost out on 5BTC because you got in early on a free contest, never corrected your vote (basically because you had a lucky guess), and now you're whining about it. Welcome to the Internet.

All of that is irrelevant since I cast my guess before GMT was even mentioned.

As a result, I never viewed the thread again until yesterday.  So, I was completely made unaware of this rule.  Hence, the game was played under different rules by different players.
When you make a game, you can decide on the rules. If someone makes a game with unclear rules and then "changes" them with a clarifying comment, it's up to the players to conform to the rule changes.

Dude, do you know what deception is?
3740  Other / Off-topic / Re: I Think I Got Screwed out of 5 BTC on: December 20, 2011, 05:16:48 PM
how's OldEngineer was supposed to notify everyone?

That's not my problem, I was the player.
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