People love drama for sure, the slap was kind of beyond belief like a movie scene in itself.  Kudos to Mr. Smith for saving the Oscars with pure attitude and he wasn't wrong in that the joke wasn't funny.    



Gambling for everything, if we can bet about marbles and pennies against the wall we can bet on anything.  Oscars is a big deal that people talk about for years after with what won how big, it matters.     We perhaps could use a playlist for music category to decide but as with every category its hard to realize their particular perspective on what defines a winning pick.   Usually there is an extra element to the choices like a cause of some kind or greater theme imo

He is joking for those that dont get it.  Of course but the ironic twist what if we lost 60k again before the end of the month, today.  Quite possible and it just threatened to do as much just now, I was watching it but theres a reaction to both 2 day average and quite possibly the big round number that 60k is itself.   Plenty people will buy from large round numbers, its just a confluence of buyers that helps reinforce that area but I only take it as temporary not structured enough to be more then a trader move.





Its a good bounce back now to 62k near abouts, Iam still doubting it from lack of volume to the move.   I think we do resolve downwards but perhaps not before close of todays bar at midnight.    BTC will waver back and forth but my target is 58k for real reaction, proper volume to resolve the fight up or down from here.    Half the skill is to identify the most magnetized area, the point of most significance around which we gravitate and I think I call 58k as being the place for now.  Above 58k we stay bullish and fight upwards and below we must establish a good area of support after these gains, so consolidation.

If price backs off to the 50k prices by tonight close I win a small bet.  That would match volatility true with hyped bubbling prices, very prone to boil over and spoil some.  Not that this has to be any top Im stating the very obvious its unstable when its gaining this much so fast.

We have lost the 12hr average, just in my experience thats the balance for a days positivity in trading and some people will be selling at that point not trying to fight the fall or unable due to leverage etc.   The price action right now has pulled back to a 2 day average roughly which is still very high.    Lets see how it reacts to 60k, the target downside I have is a fibonnaci level at 58k and that I would expect to provide some relief and positivity, possibly turn us around in any fall.  Its all fair game, fast up maybe fast down is always possible.

It could reach ATH today in theory, in practise we do not often expect such positive gains to occur without pullbacks to various prior support levels.    I think I would say now that the longer it prolongs upwards without stopping the bigger the pullback when it does occur.

The reason Im forced to be positive at the moment is we are above the 12hr average, even the minimum prices stay above that level continually.   So its a constant push upwards without relent so far.   Surely over the weekend this would abate as some of the buyers are bound to business hours during a working week only but that cant be sure as buying can be automated into programs performed by computers while people are away for a day or two.

First obvious target downside is 58k.   See how it deals with that on any break in this surge, if positive there then be optimistic on this ATH tide mark being achieved near term otherwise further consolidation would be fair after so many gains in such a short time.

Only a couple hundred people across the world of users of this site thought 60k was going to happen.  I will feel slightly sorry for them if today it pushes past 65k just before midnight, at the pace its going thats apparently feasible; it would mean the bet misses at the last second.
  If we dip just below 60k before midnight ironically I would be happy a bit as that was my main bet but in this positive case either way is fine

I failed to put even an outlier bet that high, often normally I will in small amounts but I'll admit I was too negative just thinking flat would occur.

Anyway withdrawal wise my request went to normal schedule no problem.  Having someone supervise the movement of BTC off the site is better security then other full automated options, ultimately secureity is what we care about most so I see no problems to complain about tbh.


So far as March bets, I need this weekly bar to close out as larger time frames have a better foundation in terms of lasting and projecting future prices.  Reaction to the ATH price is an obvious place to watch the race, judge performance and price action will give some clues.  I dont want to instantly estimate over a month away now that is hard.


So darn close to <60k   

If it continued to gain at the current rate then BTC price would be 1 mil by Xmas but thats not its normal nature, moving in just one direction upwards would be ironically too volatile to sustain.    A collapse or very harsh reset is quite likely if that occurred.

Current rate of gains is about 4333 dollars per day.    That brings us to $100000 in just 8 days or so.

After that if gains continued the same rate it would be another 100k gain every 23 days or so.    

So 200 days or about 7 months later the Autumn of 2024 we'd be at million dollars to answer the OP.   You have a scenario taking only the best most brightest outlook of present gains continuing, its possible but not likely.   Extrapolating the 200 day moving average or even 200 week is probably more sensible to estimate on but they start off lower at 37k and 32k respectively.

Trading and fundamental prospects are two different things.  What we have right now is a rapid change in price probably due to trading factors short term.  The golden rule for prices is the larger time frames have a gravity that far surpasses the importance of shorter term pricing.   If the price action is justified across multiple time frames then it matters far more as it might stick but a spike in pricing is not too rare, also that it will reverse alot of the gains quite frequently too before finding a longer term level of gains.

If we're talking economic prospects here rather then trading dynamics thats a different conversation and its more about actual propagation and integration into the wider economy.  The amount of people actually using BTC is far more important then this recent news of ETF usage, that will in the end be about selling and buy orders probably in equal measure; it helps some but it cant be the main volume for BTC is an ETF that'd be an empty task.   Market has to find its level in all this, the gains bring attention which brings more buying etc but it wont last like that continually.

Surely I said no on this, I thought slow and steady and yet its burst through.   Someone is pointing out a logjam effect where mainstream money is trying to buy too little available BTC short term which makes the price possibly inaccurate.  Apparently this happened also with a Wheat ETF if anyone knows that story, too much attention and buys were put in making the price move more then justified.

Either way I will be looking for volume to justify this move not just price however its very tradable in any case, nice break through the Fibonnaci and it might even get past ATH at this pace.

SmartGold actually smart, not just a name bonafide genius 

Nice price action for sure and the odds for this price range on the monthly end is 55 to 1   well we didnt see this one coming apparently.   Unforgivable because its just trending up and that was foreseeable for sure, its just the pace of gains thats upset expectations and is most surprising.   What could happen still its a blow off top type move up, a pullback is always possible.   The price here crosses fairly substantial Fibonnaci levels, nice anyhow

My prediction for this entire year was ATH or a level just below that, we're already there then pretty much.  So question is then do we continue or its a early start that ends early also and we dont go further.  I dont see volume spiking in parallel with prices, that could just be my data also.

I have a slow withdrawal, I'll update when its cleared just for feedback etc.

This depends on who is in control, the gambling or yourself.   If you are learning and advancing in your experience and knowledge then I tend to agree with your good friends opinion.     If you were being thrown about and overly emotional purely reactionary in your decisions then I dont think we learn anything at that point we are just the passenger singing along whether it goes high or low like a rollercoaster.  I know people enjoy both but I think you have to observe to learn and not just react, generally I think experience helps build you up to greater things.

Generally I would agree that over time its a factor to enable your path to a better game.  Hence I often recommend to return after some time dont try and win it all in one day as if you are in rush, if you rush you trip is my saying on these things

The electoral college is an essential part of the United States system, its not purely down to the largest cities to call the next President but only a unity across the country.  I dont see that system being changed because of the large diversity across the country and a desire to continue in that union.



AI will generate content on those questions but you may have to preselect the mode into a more fictional mindset not literal facts reporting, it may struggle to state absolute determinations of things yet to happen.  Theres a large stream of AI content on video sites like Twitch but I would rate it as comedy more then actual political opinion, its impressive for running all day every day for months now I think thats been there.   The viewers add in questions and donations, etc.  I dont know its accurate but politics is a murky pool to begin with, perceptions alter results.

Can happen anywhere that temperature is a factor, not just the heat but the cold is a serious issue for battery technology.   There are ways to mitigate this problem but it reduces efficiency and is a reduction in performance and increase in cost no doubt about it.   My biggest take on this whole technology is the development and direction of advancement.  If you believe they can improve the product then be bullish because of course cars with combustion engines were far from perfect in fact it took a century to really make them the modern wonder they are.  

There is no perfect product, we have to observe the high and low points and check there is a good chance of improvement.   I do think that's now true and batteries themselves are not all the same, they are paths to improvement underway.   Im not a chemist or even slightly qualified to judge but I think batteries will advance a great deal from now.

My experience of all tokens not just this one but generally the alt market outside of BTC relates to BTC/USD strength plus also the rate of change; this is generally true for 10 years or so it wont be a new thing especially.
  If this token is similar to others the hardest time is when BTC gains alot, thats alot of pressure like any currency appreciating it will depress many prices and make exchange less popular etc.    When BTC levels off as it always does because to gain this fast always would not be possible overall, the pressure is not quite so severe and all the things exchanged for BTC the alternate blockchains and so on are less under pressure in their pricing.

The big thing I remember that can really boom prices beyond any expectations and its ironic that during a decline in BTC or erratic behavior following a period of BTC gains prior, this will greatly benefit alternate tokens and prices of all the alternates to BTC in crypto.   Remember and judge all those things in the correct order and it can be very rewarding but Im not vastly worried about prices vs BTC when its so strong, its a given they will find it hard to hold ground when the main demand is BTC.

Its charging ahead right now, resolving the last week of sideways action to the upside.   I think 58k is quite easily achievable and why limit it there but thats the obvious first target before guessing anything else.   Theres no reason to doubt its progress maybe all the way to 100k right now but also I never presume an easy course is there by rights.

If Im forced to guess rather then waiting for further information from our reaction to 58k, I do expect some hesitation when we reach that point.  I dont see the ATH has to occur near term, I think we take time we move past what was a closing top for more then 2 months last time we got to these heights.   That amount of time suggests volume and so to resistance to overcome now still.

FIAT is leveraged and BTC is not so it seems an unlikely combination, its already true to some small extent that a nation will have some BTC on its balance sheet.   At present most FIAT is not backed at all by anything solid, the gold reserves are mostly representative and the debt far outweighs the worth of the gold or anything else.

Most of what FIAT represents now is a taxable income from the population and natural reserves of a nation like oil or other assets.   Its become political money rather then commodity like silver or gold as previously, there is no fixed worth given its an appraisal by the market on the stability and ability of a nation to pay highly linked to global trade, the countries trade balance and so on.  USA dollar has a large bias in its favor as the trade balance is negative however Dollars are in demand globally so this demand makes up the short fall and most other nations have nothing similar to rely on and end up quite weak from poor exports vs imports.
   All this I mention as FIAT is so complicated and convoluted in its nature, leveraged uneven non linear and subject to sharp resets on political alterations that none of this is a good combination for Bitcoin.  BTC is non political, globally based not national and cannot back a national currency imo.

Bet a sport you know is the first and major rule to me because if you dont have a great interest outside the bet you will end up tripping up on hopes that are not realistic.  I agree with some of what you say about the various factors altering the dynamics to whether you might win or not and some bets should be avoided, some bets are poor value or just too random imo.

Trailing stop loss is a good order to know then you dont want to compromise yourself by constantly watching and getting over anxious on every movement.  Find an acceptable leeway or margin of error that might allow the price to move up and back a bit and bring your stop loss up a bit each time.  When price action violates your set amount of margin of safety then you sell and you might be asleep at the time and its ideal.

 I find if I watch too much, worry and over think it then I sell too early and even worse dont rebuy on any sell off.    Private investors mistakes are repeated so commonly there are many sayings to describe the classic behavior but selling winners and holding losers is normal profile that we should avoid resembling in our actions.

Sounds very quaint and traditional, I like the idea of a poker game with all the friends and relatives of the dead as a bonding thing.  Better then most wakes in the west where its always too formal.

I would like to adopt such a tradition or specify it in a will.    The license part is specific to a country we don't have that here but it could be done informally and/or by honor code especially across friends; anything similar here would be charity based or via the Church in some way which has a charity status legally.    This has been done many times but in this case the organization is via community and independent of any one family so quite different I suppose.

Oppenheimer seems the best bet to favor this time around for likelihood of a win.  There seems to be a correlation across a few award shows which makes it easier also.



I wouldnt take that too seriously as a bias to that person in particular unless excluded without reason from nominations.   The amount of eligible voters increased to over 9000 about 50% increase in five years.  I'm not sure why so many new Oscar voters would appear like that but I think probably means less old guard attitudes and more respect given to unique talents outside of big picture reputation and box office figures etc.

Ive read oscar voters who are Directors then vote on the Directors category but any of the Oscar voters can vote for the Best picture so that is the most open, I guess the directors could all decide they dont go with Nolan's style on things.

This is a warm up phase, its bullish but not fully gaining due to much volume in this area.   We've spent the last 12 days above 50k, above the 61% Fibonnaci retrace level its very positive and healthy right now but its not moving as fast it could do after reaching a clear space most obviously past the last ATH.

Best guide might be the 50 day average, if we look at that for its direction and momentum.  We have had some decline at Jan end due to the long time sideways from start December it started to tail off.    There was the delay of ETF news and that appearance and actual action taken as they come in to formation actively buying and selling is new activity and volume on the market.   So long as we dont lose our advantage above the 50 day MA then I remain positive even in a pullback, I dont think we go straight up this year and I find this to be a positive over tripping over so much debris from the last fast gains  in this area all the way to the ATH.