As to your other angle, it all comes down to perspectives or frames of reference if you wish. One side tries to frame the conflict in terms of a separate, individual localized incident where Russia out of the blue attacks small Ukraine for a land grab. Very easy to argue for Ukraine as a victim and dismiss Russia with crazy Putin as a big bad aggressor, pretty clear cut whats good and bad.
Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, no, it's not "individual localized", it follows the pattern of Putin attempting to resurrect a totalitarian dictatorship, collapse of which he not-so-subtly called the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. How does it not "make sense at all" for Ukraine to acquire defensive capabilities after the aforementioned aggressions? Surely it makes at least some sense if you really want to step back and take a look at the whole picture and not just Putin's "interests". Now this is where things get very nuanced, not so black and white, and now whats good and whats bad isn't so clear anymore. Just because things are complicated doesn't make Russia right, but people start thinking, and this is not the field mass media and people with agenda, want to play on.
No, it's still actually quite clear, no need to muddy the waters here. If Alice robs Bob's house and Carol's house and Carol buys a baseball bat and Alice comes back to rob Carol 8 years later, no sane person would think that this is complicated or nuanced. After Saudis double tap a Yemen funeral with a 500 pound laser-guided bombs manufactured by the United States resulting in 155 killed, US sells $110 billion in weapons in 2017 and $350 billion over 10 years to Saudi Arabia while Saudis are still involved in the Yemeni war causing (8,672 civilians killed and 9,741 injured by coalition's airstrikes) and no one bats an eye, the war is still ongoing. Russia starts a conflict in Ukraine with 406 civilians killed and everyone looses it, Russian funds are stolen, every mass media is covering the war almost 24/7, major cities light up their buildings in the colors of the Ukrainian flag, online warriors are activated and put Ukrainian flags in the profile, and people want to start WW3 by asking NATO to start shooting down Russian planes ("no fly zone"). Clearly all due to the loss of human life and because Saudis are not a dictatorship  Our propaganda is better than their propaganda. |
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During times like these, when people's currency is devalued to nothing and hear/read nonsensical stuff such as "SWIFT is banning Russia", they start wondering what's money after all: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30469383Sometimes what's good and what's not makes a splash. You can never stop being bullish with Bitcoin. Ah, a fellow hacker news reader one of my favorite sites. In that link user lxgr knows exactly how it all works, the so called monetary plumbing is a very interesting topic and when you study it you realize how needed bitcoin actually is. |
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<snip>
I recommend you watch the Adam Curtis documentary Century of the Self. It goes into this kind of stuff, it's on you tube, 4 parts, 1hour each. |
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The Sunday dump, can't be bitcoin without it.
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The absolute level of backwards craziness the universe has risen to...  Don't know if any of you guys listen to Macrovoices, but Erik Townsend has been talking about this for a couple years now. The wallstreet push with ESG has meant gross underinvestment in fossil fuel exploration and producing. Being that the world still relies very heavily on these fuels this increase in price since the covid lows has been baked in. These things are commodities though so the solution to the high prices is higher prices. |
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500 mln newly opened futures longs in the last day in Binance. This is calling for a new long squeeze. They missed the train last week, so they will try to catch it in motion. Good luck, n00bs! After they are liquidated I expect next week to get to 50K.
Well, this wasn't hard to predict. The usual long squeeze tax n00bs are paying to the casinos exchanges. Nothing to see here, move along! Have those longs been closed out yet? Regardless I doubt 50k next week, but back into the 40s would be nice. Liquidated and stop loss closed. Nobody can tell the real number of realised losses in general. There are some indicators like glassnode stats or more basic like https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator#. Nobody can count stop losses and margin trades, which in fact determine the price in Binance. I suppose that those 500mil from earlier are liquidated/closed and the new 200 mil knife catching longs are being squeezed on the way. In the last year, the minimal volume of futures longs on Binance typically was around 1.3-1.5 bil. When in a short period like 2 days it jumps to 2 bil it is an indicator that the same is happening with margin trades. Basically this means that 500mil are waiting to cash out on 1-2% price increase. Which can happen only if there is some major buyer. If those traders make an effort to look at the volume, they will understand that there is no way a 500mil sale to allow the price to increase. And when there is no price increase, the sells are starting to tip the balance causing a domino effect of closing high leverage longs. The funny thing is that there were literally 0 volume longs activity before and during the pump last week. So these losers are quite miserable and addicted to making the same mistakes over and over again. For now it seems that most of them are liquidated, so the recovery to 45K shouldn't be a problem. 50K might look too far for now, but definitely doable in 2-3 weeks. Yeah it amazes me how often this same mistake is made over and over again. I would really love to know who these people are who keep doing this. Average Joes maybe, rich fools who were given their money rather than earning it? it would certainly be an interesting study. 45k is ok by me too, and 3 weeks till 50k, yeah I could handle that. |
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I know we all hate Raoul Pal around here but this is still a good thread. https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1499782038085271553?cxt=HHwWgoCsyaj0pdApAAAAThe massive rise in food and energy prices have caused an enormous tightening of financial conditions, along with the liquidity issues of de-platforming Russia. The 2/10’s swaps curve is at 15bps and will hit zero soon, showing how tight conditions really are. 1/ The odds of rate hikes are falling fast because hiking rates into a supply shock just exacerbates what is likely to become a global recession as the Russia situation will not get solved fast. Demand will erode fast at these prices too. Europe is now in a hot mess. I think there is a decent chance of MMT style handouts to cover food and energy costs. This could be a global thing. It was the new trick that the governments and CB’s learned in 2020. How else do they deal with the obliteration of household finances? I think it also accelerates green energy commitment, a global deal with Iran and a shift towards Morocco (manufacturing) and Algeria (gas) as regional further splinter into more regionalised supply chains they can control easier (I.e not Russia or China) The right trades here remain gold and crypto (no one’s liability), bonds and dollars. One sniff of a change in CB’s use of balance sheet and crypto explodes again but patience required.
The entire set up is very similar to March 2020 for crypto. Let’s see if it makes a new low But traditional recession trades outside of crypto will be very very useful.
No one owns enough bonds and gold. Dollars will get trickier soon as the Fed start the global swap line spigot.
Good luck out there. These are dark times. |
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500 mln newly opened futures longs in the last day in Binance. This is calling for a new long squeeze. They missed the train last week, so they will try to catch it in motion. Good luck, n00bs! After they are liquidated I expect next week to get to 50K.
Well, this wasn't hard to predict. The usual long squeeze tax n00bs are paying to the casinos exchanges. Nothing to see here, move along! Have those longs been closed out yet? Regardless I doubt 50k next week, but back into the 40s would be nice. |
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with all this nuclear talk...good thing i'm a fan of novels like Metro 2033 and games like Stalker. Of course its a moot point, since your worst enemy will be clean water and starvation. I think if we killed all wild game in my area (big as a couple states, with more wildlife) it would feed the population for....8 days.
8 days. No nuclear war pls.
What about Threads. Have you seen that one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threads_(1984_film) |
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3 possible outcomes I reckon: - Pressure on Putin will make him retreat or broker some sort of temporary peace deal (perhaps annexing the two smaller eastern Ukrainian areas already "declared independent" and sticking with that - again I reckon this is only temporary and possibly only prolongs another mammoth attack on Ukraine in some years into the future). This may reduce some sanctions again. - Putin continues the onslaught until Ukraine waves the white flag. No sanctions dropped and could cause more trouble. - Putin continues the onslaught until Ukraine is completely destroyed. No sanctions dropped and could cause more trouble.  There are ceasefire talks going on. It's still possible that some kind of diplomatic solution can be found, maybe Ukraine will declare neutrality and then Russia will leave. Who knows. But I think there are far more possible outcomes than the 3 you have listed. Hopefully, it gets resolved soon and via a diplomatic solution. I don't like any poor people dying for their masters, Ukraine or Russia. |
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I think you are right about the "smoke and mirrors" part, or at least that was the initial plan, but the ongoing warmongering on both sides is spinning out of control, hate feeds into more hate. After asking around among my friends, I'm the only one promoting peace at the moment, didn't get a single person in here to agree about that either (so far).
It's a sports team thing. Most people love to support their team despite it being detrimental to them. The players on the team and owners get rich, as the supporters hand over their hard earned money on tickets and paraphernalia. The other team is of course the enemy and they must be yelled at and insulted. Pride is of paramount importance. It seems war is no different, a team is picked, history ignored, and the leaders (and a few soldiers/players) are made into heroic celebrities as the people starve and die in ditches. We also bitch and bicker about who is wrong and why. All the while ignoring the real problem that starts all conflicts, which is having unrepresentative opaque governments with sociopathic celebrity leaders. |
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Seizure of Russian CB assets is a declaration of war. WW3 has just started. Nobody wins. The USA will become radioactive desert defending Nazi junta in Kiev. Psychopaths in London and Washington must tell this to people in the West!
Along with the SWIFT restrictions this is being a bit overblown I think. Their assets aren't being seized. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/devastating-move-us-weighs-sanctions-russias-central-bank-germany-backs-targeted- Commit to ensuring that "selected Russian banks" are removed from the SWIFT messaging system: "This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally."
- Commit to imposing "restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions."
- Commit to "acting against the people and entities who facilitate the war in Ukraine" by taking measures to limit the sale of citizenship, so called golden passports, that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens
- Commit to launching "a transatlantic task force that will ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions by identifying and freezing the assets of sanctioned individuals and companies that exist within our jurisdictions."
- Stepping up or coordination against disinformation and other forms of hybrid warfare.
Also note that the Russian CB assets will continue to expand as Europe will continue their purchases of oil and gas. If the Russian CB can't make use of these assets because they have been frozen, they will no longer accept Euros for them and will instead demand payment in Rubles, Yuan, or BTC? If Europe doesn't pay, there will be no gas or oil. In other words, no way are they really freezing any Russian CB assets. At first glance I thought this would be good for Bitcoin, but getting second thoughts, this could backfire and result in more BTC regulations. I think the SWIFT restrictions will affect the common people (working class) of Russia the most, if some country wants to buy gas from Russia they can bypass all of this without using Bitcoin (or other crypto currency) easily. The rich will just flee to their luxury bunkers eventually if the war support (on both sides) keep going at this rate. Of course the restrictions will hurt the common folk the most, that's been proven over and over again. Sanctions do nothing but screw over the people. And you're right it may be bad for Bitcoin, but Russia will not be getting cut off, because to do that would mean that Europe will collapse. It's all talk. smoke and mirrors, the elites everywhere will be unaffected. |
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Seizure of Russian CB assets is a declaration of war. WW3 has just started. Nobody wins. The USA will become radioactive desert defending Nazi junta in Kiev. Psychopaths in London and Washington must tell this to people in the West!
Along with the SWIFT restrictions this is being a bit overblown I think. Their assets aren't being seized. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/devastating-move-us-weighs-sanctions-russias-central-bank-germany-backs-targeted- Commit to ensuring that "selected Russian banks" are removed from the SWIFT messaging system: "This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally."
- Commit to imposing "restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions."
- Commit to "acting against the people and entities who facilitate the war in Ukraine" by taking measures to limit the sale of citizenship, so called golden passports, that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens
- Commit to launching "a transatlantic task force that will ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions by identifying and freezing the assets of sanctioned individuals and companies that exist within our jurisdictions."
- Stepping up or coordination against disinformation and other forms of hybrid warfare.
Also note that the Russian CB assets will continue to expand as Europe will continue their purchases of oil and gas. If the Russian CB can't make use of these assets because they have been frozen, they will no longer accept Euros for them and will instead demand payment in Rubles, Yuan, or BTC? If Europe doesn't pay, there will be no gas or oil. In other words, no way are they really freezing any Russian CB assets. |
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Find me an accurate source and I'll read it, that's all I found so far.
Don't Trust. Verify! Never said I trusted it dick head. It was the only thing I could find reporting up to date events, a lot of the shit they said has been reported on other news sites as well. If you are claiming its fake news, fine, point me to something that is not fake news. As if accurate up to date news out of a conflict zone is possible anyway. Like I said before, war is serious shit. (I can attest to this from personal experience) You don't help anyone by spreading fake news. By the way what's with the name calling? Name calling? you wonder about name calling while saying that I am spreading fake news (with no proof) which were obviously not my intent by my statement of “who knows what’s accurate”. Seriously go fuck yourself. Tell me where the non fake news is or shut the hell up. Maybe you can lobby twitter to cancel their account if it is indeed so fake, twitter are always willing to cancel accounts at a drop of the hat. |
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Find me an accurate source and I'll read it, that's all I found so far.
Don't Trust. Verify! Never said I trusted it dick head. It was the only thing I could find reporting up to date events, a lot of the shit they said has been reported on other news sites as well. If you are claiming its fake news, fine, point me to something that is not fake news. As if accurate up to date news out of a conflict zone is possible anyway. |
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Who knows what is acurate right now. But I'm not enjoying reading shit like this.  This ASB News source is ridiculous and full of fake news and unverified information.  You can enjoy reading that kind of shit, but it's not okay to spread fake news. Wars are serious shit, and human lives are at stake. Let's act responsibly and with reverence. Find me an accurate source and I'll read it, that's all I found so far. |
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I was shouted down the other day for moaning about international politics and also "debunked - because they are poor" for warning a massive emigration wave going to come from Ukraine to the west (they won't just stop over in Poland for a few days if you're thinking that). I truly find it astonishing that some of you are in Bitcoin at all since you can't seem to think even a few days ahead or simply have a problem with deviating from Bitcoin jokes, memes and let's face it mostly nonsense. We have seen massive international problems by far have the biggest effects on Bitcoin's price over the last few years surely. The further Putin goes towards western Ukraine the lower BTC's price will go. For the majority of investors BTC at this moment is a speculative asset, not a safe heaven. Lets wait to see what the sanctions are, then more importantly the central banks response. |
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why bitcoin is the weakest link among stocks, etc., though?
idk
it surely goes down fast at any sign of trouble....then recovers fast, of course.
Market opening times, maybe? Or do we talk weekly? My comment on the situation: fuck Putin!  Na, fuck all of them. This is a fuck up that extends all the way back to the end of the Soviet Union. Putin was just a result of that fuck up. Will we ever learn? It seems the answer is No. Merited both of you, because both of you are right, somehow. Fuck warmongers. warmongers of all sides have been running things forever, it sucks man. The elites get rich and the poor die for their riches. |
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