The first hurdle to overcome is reaching 80% signalling of BIP91.
BIP91 has a good chance of being locked in this lock-in period already, and if not once Slush signals it should be more or less a certainty for next lock-in period. I don't like all the FUD and conspiracy theories about why miners won't actually follow through with SegWit. Yep I agree! Back up to 80.5% and BIP91 is projected to lock in during this lock-in-period, just 80 more blocks to go at this percentage or above and we're all good! Good ? Issues is the UnAcceptableSF at 1st Aug and the merging period after ..... |
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is there an official link to the BIP 91 and BIP148 UASF on here? Im curious if its really going to get locked in this week and we can finally moon....
I'm not sure what you mean, exactly; however, some folks are watching the closeness of the BIP91 locking in on these two websites. https://coin.dance/blockshttps://www.xbt.eu/Also my website is tracking BIP 91 signaling: https://www.btcforkmonitor.info/ as well as monitoring for any chain splits. Really cool - Thx a lot! I'll try to distribute this a bit, ok? |
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So wie es aussieht wird von heute bis morgen Nacht BIP91 Akzeptiert.
Dies führt aber nicht zur Spaltung des coins richtig ?
Ja - keine Spaltung.... Nicht wenn alles zusammen (Nodes & Miner) zusammenarbeiten. Problem ist des richtige 'merging' mit UASF / btc1 Nodes.... |
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Congrats... Great to see that your pool got to be part of a possible pivotal moment in bitcoin history....  This activation period looks very close but I don't think it will succeed because f2pool is STILL holding out. No idea what he's thinking; he's done some bizarre flip flops in the past that have nothing to do with what he says, so I don't even know if he's holding out because of gmaxwell's issue on the btc1 git. There is still enough hashrate to activate it without him on one of the activation periods (they are 336 blocks long) but instead of it being a given it's going to be a close one based on random luck. Could you pls explain a little more here since I understand this issue is about to better sync the activation UASF / SW2x ? Wouldn't it be better the SW2x lock-in is to be delayed to minimize the time difference between those two activations ? That's what the miners try ? I think that this is a repeated theme in this thread that BIP91 seems to cause dynamics to lock in segwit, but is does not necessarily cause sufficient dynamics to lock in segwit2x (meaning the 2x portion of that NYA). Anyhow, probably have to verify the extent to which there could be signaling that establishes the 2x portion of the segwit2x - which I doubt would even be able to sustain any kind of 80% threshold, let alone the less controversial 95% threshold that segwit is going to likely achieve within short period of time after BIP91 gets locked in. Of course, ck can respond more regarding the portions of your question that seems directed at him... which may be all of it.. .. hahahaha  Hm, speculation; Think about sth like 'group dynamics'. Once the miner 'community' noticed - I and I'm sure all the needed 'meetings' last months lead exactly to this - that only together / colluding they can GO ON and even against core (and stable the price!!!) .... maybe we will be surprised? |
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Congrats... Great to see that your pool got to be part of a possible pivotal moment in bitcoin history.... This activation period looks very close but I don't think it will succeed because f2pool is STILL holding out. No idea what he's thinking; he's done some bizarre flip flops in the past that have nothing to do with what he says, so I don't even know if he's holding out because of gmaxwell's issue on the btc1 git. There is still enough hashrate to activate it without him on one of the activation periods (they are 336 blocks long) but instead of it being a given it's going to be a close one based on random luck. Could you pls explain a little more here since I understand this issue is about to better sync the activation UASF / SW2x ? Wouldn't it be better the SW2x lock-in is to be delayed to minimize the time difference between those two activations ? That's what the miners try ? |
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I think it's a good sign to show what bitcoin and its idea really is. Finally anyone who want to be reasonable here should WORK (PoW) against any split of bitcoin AT FIRST PLACE. |
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Thx for picking this up. I also think we should rather find a clear and simple but strict PROTOCOL (21 Mio ...)
Any tech for clients is of user's behalf....
Decentralization and security comes with that.
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Ich glaube eher das hier: https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/887646243714879488Je näher die SegWit-Aktivierung kommt, desto klarer wird, dass es kein 2x geben wird. Zu dem "bug" von BIP91: Zeigt erneut, was das Problem von SegWit2x ist. Es sollte eine politische Lösung sein, aber Jeff Garzik schafft es nicht, sie durchzusetzen. Er knickt einfach nur ein, und ein, und ein. Dass man sich überhaupt beeilt hat, um vor der UASF da zu sein, war ein Zeichen der Schwäche. Dass man sich mit BIP91 verrenkt hat, um es unbedingt allen anderen Nodes zu ermöglichen, ohne Update SegWit benutzen zu können, war ein Zeichen der Schwäche. Dass Garzik jetzt, obwohl TomTom sehr überzeugend erklärt, weshalb das hier absolutes ein Non-Problem ist, Maxwell Honig ums Maul schmiert, ist ein weiteres Zeichen der Schwäche. Unter den Voraussetzungen wird es immer unwahrscheinlicher, dass SegWit2x den 2x-Teil einhält. Die Leute und Firmen dahinter sind einfach zu schwach. Sie werden jetzt ja schon von Core gedisst, während sie für Core SegWit aktivieren, nachdem sich Core grotesk über den Support unter den Minern verschätzt hat. Was meinst du, was passiert, wenn sie versuchen, etwas zu verwirklichen, was Core vehement ablehnt, wie etwa die 2mb HF? Ich bin mir aber ziemlich sicher, dass sich Jihan Wu nicht ein zweites Mal verarschen lässt. Zumindest seiner Meinung nach wurde er von Core mit Hongkong über den Tisch gezogen. Das wird er nicht nochmal zulassen. Eventuell werden Jihan und Roger jetzt versuchen, die SegWit-Aktivierung per BIP91 hinauszuzögern, so dass die UASF entweder forkt oder sich als Luftblase entpuppt, und dann ABC starten. In einem 3-Fork-Szenario hätte ABC vermutlich die besten Überlebenschancen. In jedem Fall wird ABC / Cash die Drohung sein, die Bitmain, Bitpay und Bitcoin.com in der Hinterhand behalten, falls SegWit2x scheitert. Also, falls der 2x teil scheitert. Ich denke mal, man wird es direkt sehen können, wie Hashrate von Antpool in einen ABC-Pool abfließt, wenn die Stimmung kippt. Und mit jedem neuen Backlog-Himmalaya wird der Preis von Bitcoin Cash steigen. Wird auf jeden Fall spannend werden. Weia, kann core nicht auch mal 'kompromissfähig' sein? NYA ist irgendwie ein letzter Versuch ohne Fork da durchzukommen ? Jeder muss hier Abstriche machen!!!!! |
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267 blocks before current lock-in period ends. Still 212 blocks needed for a lock-in. https://www.xbt.eu/this is less than 80 % needed ... And last 144 blocks say 81.9% - so it should be ok .... 44.5 h to go |
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Segwit2x is the biggest problem, since it's a direct attempt to takeover Bitcoin, other forks are a smoke screen to scare people from potential forks (all this FUD that Bitcoin will crash if there will be split), while presenting Segwit2x as true Bitcoin. The real fight will be when miners with their 85% hashing power will fork into 2mb blocks in November, I hope people won't get themselves fooled.
So, the REAL BTC will be that BTC with most hashrate power? not exactly. things aren't as simple as that. so you can't say big hashpower has the most power and small hashpower has the least or no power. there are a lot of factors that will play a role in this. the high hashpower helps a lot because it is securing the chain against splitting, 51% attacks, etc. but as i said other factors such as nodes on the network which are crucial, exchanges to list these and then the price that will be decided on these exchanges, and finally one of the important ones: merchants. which one they choose can easily change a lot of things. and in fact splitting bitcoin, or even threat of splitting can mean they stop using bitcoin for good no matter what happens! so it may end up being a lose-lose scenario instead of one side winning... Always think of 2 safeties here technical = hash-power AND economical = long term physical investments + energy |
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It's not BIP91 that I'm concerned about. According to this chart, things are looking messy down the road (November 1st)
100% miner support, seriously??? So, a split is confirmed in November???
If there were 100% miner support where do you see a split ? There won't be a 100% support. I don't see it. There are folks with different opinions and it's nearly impossible for them ALL to agree on one thing. Sure - now the lock-in period is to show how big the majority is 80 / 90 ... than the minority can be orphaned more or less... |
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It's not BIP91 that I'm concerned about. According to this chart, things are looking messy down the road (November 1st)
100% miner support, seriously??? So, a split is confirmed in November???
If there were 100% miner support where do you see a split ? |
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Hilf mir mal jmd beim 'gross' Denken.
Der krampfhafte Versuch, die doch recht undefinierbare Dezentralität (und Sicherheit) zu erhalten / zurückzugewinnnen / zu stabilisieren ist doch mit CODE / Tech Design doch total gescheitert und ins Gegenteil umgeschlagen:
Die 'gemeinen' Miner (lustiges Wortspiel hahaha) sind bis Vor-SW Code alle recht unabhängig gewesen und haben brav Core Code geschluckt...
Durch SW und die globale Thematisierung und alles was wir dann politisch gesehen haben, MUSSTEN diese sich vereinen, und zeigen jetzt die Harke / ihre Stärke...?
Das bringt mich immer mehr zu meiner These: das Protokoll ist zu komplex und versucht etwas zu erreichen, was letztlich gegenteilige Auswirkungen hat ( actio - reactio ) - Das Nash- Gleichgewicht MACHT doch das alles schon - ich brauch das nicht (nochmal und brutal usw) im Code verankern!
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Soweit ich es verstehe, benutzt man das core BIP91'signal , um dann btc1 von Jeff Garzick und Sergio Lerner zu aktivieren, oder core macht bei dem 2MB HF mit... Sonst könnte es sein, dass es nur den btc1 gibt, wenn die miner zusammenhalten und sich an das NYA binden...
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This could turn out to be ok as long as segwit2x manages to not crash during activation period which would be a massive disaster. Once segwit locks in and we avoid BIP148, then miners can go back to running core software and we will be safe until November when delusional hardforkers pretend to fork bitcoin again.
Yeah - cool. Put war fork and war spoon down for a while and get us some pipe n beers.  |
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.. if there is about 90% miners in line - who cares ?
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Roger Ver/Jihad/Craig Wright sockpuppets. Reddit is a shithole period. There will be no hardfork because all hardfork proposals are trash. Going into the forked chain will result in loss of purchasing power as the forked token crashes into the ground. Do not support any hardforked token unless you want to lose money. In other words, you have nothing to add to this discussion. Bye brainwashed Core worshiper. Can't wait until you fools will be worshiping an altcoin or be out of bitcoins way entirely. It's ok Roger, now ABC can soon join the club of defeated hardfork attempts along with XT, Classic, Unlimited and so on. It's pretty funny how they keep trying to come up with all these scams and they all end up on the dumpster. ... as long as the fight ended with SW2x - I don't care |
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^ Interessant wäre dabei immer, WANN denn diese 20MB Blöcke erreicht werden - und was wir dann für eine Technik am Start haben.
Auch 32GB UXTO set - mal ne andere DB versuchen ?
Egal, erstmal zuschauen, wie das SW2x gerade noch reinkommt. Das ist eigentlich gut, wenn sich die Minerseite mal 'einig' ist, oder?
(Mhh , wollten wir nicht dezentrtale Miner ...?)
Das übt nun wieder Druck auf die Nodes aus, das NYA auch so umzusetzen, dass für mich aber auch an das Hongkong (?) agreement erinnert SW + später 2MB / November ist dann = später...
Das sieht alles nach Last-Minute-Kompromiss aus und Bös-Fork-Verhinderung.
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