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4841  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: DECENTRALIZED crypto currency (including Bitcoin) is a delusion (any solutions?) on: November 12, 2016, 12:37:24 PM
Seems I am banned from Reddit, because the following posts have been removed:

Afaics, Byzcoin can't possibly fix the most fundamental flaw in Satoshi's design when block rewards come predominantly from transaction fees, which is that the transaction fees either decline to mining costs or the throughput must be limited (e.g. by block size) so that transaction fees must rise to those the larger valued transactions are willing to pay.

One might argue that some transactions are willing to pay a higher transaction fee to be included sooner in a block, yet without any restriction on throughput (e.g. block size), this merely means one has to pay a transaction fee that makes the marginal miner profitable. But there is no such fee, because the marginal miners aren't just one level of cost. Thus gradually the most marginal miners go bankrupt, which proceeds until the lowest cost miners control 51% of the network and can raise fees to what ever level the market will bear.

The marginal miners rejoin the network if the cartel raises the level of transaction fees accepted but this is only stable if there remains a 51% cartel to raise fees. Due to the economics of Satoshi's design (e.g. minority mining on the wrong block during propagation delay), those with more hashrate earn more profit than their proportional hashrate should, thus the 51% cartel over time trends towards 100% and so as their percentage of the systemic hashrate rises, the cartel can raise transaction fees to higher levels up to what the market can bear. So eventually we will be right back at Visa and Mastercard levels of centralized control and fees.

The "greedy mining attacks" are essentially a manifestation of the same underlying economic problem which is that given no restriction on throughput, then game theory incentives cause transaction fees to decline to the mining costs. Byzcoin may fix some of these attacks, but it can't fix the fundamental problem with Satoshi's proof-of-work, because it is insoluble. And no, Monero didn't fix this problem as TPTB_need_war explained to ArticMine earlier this year.

I (as @AnonyMint) had pointed out back in 2013 that transaction fees are Achilles heel of Satoshi's design.

Ultimately what this all means is that mathematically and microeconomically for Satoshi's design to survive, a cartel must control a monopoly on mining (e.g. 51% of the hashrate) so that it can dictate a level of fees which is profitable. This is potentially why the Chinese mining "cartel" has been afaik resisting block size increases, because at least this is more obfuscated and more immediate than a battle of attrition or 51% attack to rid the blockchain of miners not in the cartel for the purpose of increasing profit from transaction fees.

There can't ever exist any solution for Satoshi's proof-of-work design that will prevent a devolution into a mining cartel.

The only way to improve on this might be to shift to a design which doesn't use proof-of-work with blocks.



I have not yet studied in detail about those "greedy mining attacks" but here is another attack I was contemplating which I presume wouldn't be fixed by Byzcoin. However, I conclude this attack is probably not rational.

Currently the average Bitcoin transaction is roughly $100 with roughly 200,000 transactions per day which is fractionally more than 2 transactions per second throughput. That is roughly $200 million of transaction value per day. The minted mining reward is roughly (rounded down) $1 million per day, which is thus roughly 0.5% of transaction value minted reward per transaction. At this time transaction fees are insignificant.

Mathematically it should be possible to double-spend more than $50,000 in transactions (split perhaps into numerous smaller valued transactions) by spending $50,000 on mining for 6 blocks, with the excess being profit. The argument against this being as easy as it seems mathematically is that who will rent to you equivalent of 100% of the network hashrate? Assuming you could rent 51% of the existing hashrate, then you'd only need to spend $25,000 for 6 blocks. But again those who have invested in mining hardware probably have an incentive to not rent out 51% of the network hashrate so as to not enable such attacks on the value of their investment.

If transaction fees will end up being significantly lower such as 0.05% when minted block rewards decline to 0, then unless transaction volume multiplied by average transaction value has increased commensurately (e.g. 10X in my example), then the overall capital invested in the security will be commensurately lower.

Note I wrote recently that I presumed a rational entity or cartel that controls 51% of the mining hashrate would not have an incentive to short the market while 51% attacking for double-spends, because of insufficient market liquidity to extract all the value of their capital investment. Perhaps there is another strategy which might be rational. The 51% attacker could double-spend to drive the price down, extracting profits both on the double-spent theft and the shorting (which are much less than their capital investment) which they can then reinvest by buying more coins at the low prices. Pause their attack and let the market price recover, then repeat. They would need to hide their tracks very well or do this from a country where it is not illegal to do so, which may or may not be realistic at that scale? In this way they could keep the market price relatively depressed while they wait for a technical solution to the problem, or they later announce that 51% of the network has been acquired and will now sign every block with a public key and this public key is committed to a reputation that it will never allow a double-spend. Although that attack (and any subsequent commitment to a reputation not to attack) would admit 51% control of the network, which would probably have motivated a technical replacement for Bitcoin that doesn't use proof-of-work.

Thus it seems I am probably correct and this attack is probably not in the rational interest of any entity that can control 51% of the network hashrate.


No freedom of speech.
No freedom of transaction.
No freedom of fees.
No freedom of blocksize.
4842  Other / Off-topic / Re: How many Bitcoins are lost forever? on: November 12, 2016, 09:51:19 AM
I don't care about the lost number = lost coins by losing the private key to spend.

I care about the free float and people trying to own = hodl at least 1 btc for long time.

Right now I d guess we could calc this very roughly to

16mio (created)  - 5mio ( hodled , see other threads here) -  x lost (x=4mio?)  =  FF (free float = 7mio?)

So if only 7 mio is free, that' s scarce!
4843  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: November 11, 2016, 02:20:05 PM
SBB (Schweizer Bundesbahn) ist live und funktioniert!

Man kann auch seine deals hier tracken:

https://therocktrading.com/en/offers/BTCEUR

Unglaublich  +1000 BTC ATMs ...

Sehr schön!

und so geht's:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1677217.msg16844497#new
4844  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC exchangeable on Swiss railway ticket vending machines on: November 11, 2016, 01:33:40 PM
This is an interesting alternative to Bitcoin ATM's, an info on how do these systems run? Interested in what kind of software does it have and how was the Bitcoin system integrated within the ticket vending machines...

I assume these machines are quite widespread, at least on train stations, which is interesting for people traveling from abroad and will make it easy to implement a BTC marketplace in many places throughout Switzerland and who knows, maybe other countries eventually.

Hope the fees aren't all that bad and that they don't ask for personal data... It would be cool to read feedback on the system.


It is running on their standart terminal software - just another option like load a prepaid card or buy a train ticket.

You need to scan your target QR and need a Swiss mobile- no to get a pin code.

Than you can pay your fiat and get a ticket print reciept + some minutes later you bitcoin.

Rest is done from SweePay / Zug / Switzerland
4845  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: November 11, 2016, 12:56:00 PM
SBB (Schweizer Bundesbahn) ist live und funktioniert!


Man kann auch seine deals hier tracken:

https://therocktrading.com/en/offers/BTCEUR


Unglaublich  +1000 BTC ATMs ...
4846  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC exchangeable on Swiss railway ticket vending machines on: November 11, 2016, 12:53:07 PM
This is real + live + working OK now!


I just got me some and you can really trace the deals here

https://therocktrading.com/en/offers/BTCEUR


Great!!!
4847  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Swiss railway ticket machines to sell Bitcoin digital currency on: November 11, 2016, 12:52:01 PM
This is real + live + working OK now!


I just got me some and you can really trace the deals here

https://therocktrading.com/en/offers/BTCEUR


Great!!!
4848  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 09, 2016, 03:27:04 AM
bitcoin knows ... it's trump

Yeah, the first official trollpresident. I love it! :-D

Yeah..   You should not trump that forum here otherwise your post gets removed you old trumper!

 Grin

Ah, come on, we should have a little bit of fun. Like: http://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-ricochet-as-clinton-trump-trade-lead-in-florida-1478654413 Stock Futures Plunge as Donald Trump Posts Strong Showing.
Fun!

Hm Dow about 700 down.... Wonder if thats fun?
4849  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 09, 2016, 03:21:01 AM
bitcoin knows ... it's trump

Yeah, the first official trollpresident. I love it! :-D

Yeah..   You should not trump that forum here otherwise your post gets removed you old trumper!

 Grin
4850  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 09, 2016, 02:34:25 AM
Due to BBC Trump in front.

USD and oil down sharply

Gold, Yen and Euro up...

Bitcoin?
4851  Bitcoin / Meetups / Re: Blockchain Meetup Zurich: Internet of Money - Andreas Antonopoulus, 26 October on: November 07, 2016, 03:15:37 PM
The Audio Take here


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9KJnbptE9g


And the video


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5cqyg4/andreas_m_antonopoulos_talks_about_bitcoin_free/
4852  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / USD losing some value, but that's nothing compared to this: on: November 05, 2016, 06:48:21 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-04/what-not-to-do-when-floating-a-currency-lessons-egypt-can-learn

Millions of Egyptians, .... betrayed!
4853  Bitcoin / Press / [2016-11-05] Egypts needs Bitcoin - Its £ halves after floating on: November 05, 2016, 06:42:22 AM
But not only Egypts currency lost value dramatically:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-04/what-not-to-do-when-floating-a-currency-lessons-egypt-can-learn
4854  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: November 05, 2016, 06:05:15 AM
Ist dieses Monsterwerk schon jmd bekannt?


https://www.bitkom.org/noindex/Publikationen/2016/Leitfaden/Blockchain/161104-LF-Blockchain-final.pdf


Sonst: Viel Spass am WE !

 Grin


Und noch was:

"
Alles gut in den Schwellenländern? Gemäss den Wechselkursen nicht: Ägypten wertet die Währung in zwei Tagen über 40% ab. Vier Grafiken zu den grossen Verlierern.
"

Aus

http://tablet.fuw.ch/article/aegypten-hat-die-schwaechste-waehrung-dieses-jahr/
4855  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 03, 2016, 12:17:56 PM
1.  BTC980,000*. Satoshi Nakamoto
...
LETS PUMP THIS SHIT

Since we're throwing out baseless numbers you can add:

2. BTC500,000 Elwar

LETS PUMP THIS BTC SHIT WITH FIAT

Gooo!

Please add

JPY1,000,000 hv_

 Grin
4856  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Lykke - a global marketplace on: November 01, 2016, 01:55:58 PM
LKK currently trades at
0.04728 bid
0.04768 ask

Quotes can also be found at https://lykke.com/exchange.php

Thx - could you pls add volume data ?
4857  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2016, 01:51:13 PM
Big China is getting upset (and do front running)  since small Switzerland will outperform them soon with ATMs in every little village...
4858  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 30, 2016, 08:38:09 AM
wow. Can anybody confirm that BTC China now has trading vol 1000x compared to ATH end of 2013?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btcnCNY#rg1460zigWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
4859  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: October 29, 2016, 02:55:11 PM
Ich habe meine ersten Verkäufe bei 680 Euro platziert, da ungefähr dürfte der RSI den Wert 90 übersteigen. Es sind Mini-Verkäufe bezogen auf meinen Bestand, die ich tätige. Wenn sich der Preis unerwartet überschlagen sollte, dann verkaufe ich meinen Derivate-ETF, weil ich aus dem wahrhaftigen Bestand meiner Bitcoins nicht schnell genug raus komme.

Ist das auch nachhaltig? *duck und weg*

Für mich auf jeden Fall. Mein Ziel ist eine Verteilung von 50% Cryptos zu 50% Aktien und anderer Anlagen, und da habe ich bei Cryptos derzeit ganz klar zu viele. Bitte nicht ducken, immer schön auf Augenhöhe. Ich habe niemandem etwas voraus, wo ich an einer Stelle zu einem Fachidiot werde, fehlt mir im Gegenzug an anderer Stelle das Wissen.

Ich versuche nur, den Bitcoin-Enthusiasten ein wenig die Euphorie zu nehmen, das ist nachhaltig.

Nuja, bei den Plumscryptos kannst Du schonmal billiger zugreifen. Ob das nachhaltig ist, kann wohl niemand sagen...
4860  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Unconfirmed Transactions Problem on: October 28, 2016, 07:52:20 PM
As long as the absolute value of your transaction is high enough, the relative value-to-fee ratio stays low even if you have to go over 100 sat/B.

However, lower value transactions will become more and more affected as the race for block space goes on.

Yep and you will only know after if you fall into the 'spammer bin' or not. Come on what a crap is that?
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