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421  Economy / Economics / Re: Could Bitcoin one day become the global reserve currency? on: March 25, 2023, 08:15:48 PM
Bitcoin is not going to become global reserve currency for one reason, I think the most obvious reason right now is that governments do not fully support bitcoin as a currency or means of payment. So far the government or relevant institutions do not hold large amount of bitcoin, hence bitcoin will not become a foreign reserve. After all, governments cannot control bitcoin, that is another reason why bitcoin will not become global reserve currency.

I'm not sure volatility is the most compelling reason why bitcoin can't be global reserve currency, but bitcoin's decentralization is the main reason why it can't be global reserve currency.

A reserve currency doesn't have to have government endorsement. USD is the current reserve currency -- and the U.S. has plenty of adversaries that forcefully hold the currency for the sake of participating in the global economy. China, Russia, etc. would love nothing more than to not rely on the United States currency system in order to trade which is why USD is being dumped out of currency reserves at record rates due to high inflation and overzealous sanctions. It's within the interest of countries to adopt a decentralized asset that isn't prone to the typical political manipulation that USD is subject to.

Gold solves the issue but for logistical reasons, it isn't feasible to conduct bilateral transactions through gold. Crypto fits the bill quite well.
422  Economy / Economics / Re: Is capitalism killing morality in the name of the law? on: March 25, 2023, 02:43:17 PM
If it's truly a capitalistic economy, then usually usury would be stomped out by the competition undercutting the high rates of which ever lender. If the market is free, competitive, and fair, then it shouldn't be a problem. Greed isn't a capitalism problem, it's a human morality problem. I wouldn't expect capitalism to be perfect, because predatory lending agencies exist -- though capitalism can make things more fair for the consumer because there's alternatives.
423  Economy / Economics / Re: UAE Unveils CBDC Strategy. on: March 24, 2023, 06:15:05 PM
Quote
As part of the UAE's digital transformation, CBDC will help address the pain points of domestic and cross-border payments, enhance financial inclusion and the move towards a cashless society. It will further strengthen the UAE's payment infrastructure, providing additional robust payment channels, ensuring a resilient and reliable financial system. More importantly, the CBUAE aims to ensure the readiness of the UAE to integrate the payment infrastructures with the future potential tokenization world, the tokenization of the financial and non-financial activities.

They're right that cross-border payments are troublesome and expensive, but CBDC's aren't the answer.

Banking institutions act as intermediaries between consumers and consumers are forced to adhere to the banks convoluted regulations which make it difficult to send funds internationally. Bitcoin is P2P and universal and obviously it doesn't have the same types of issues. Theoretically, CBDC could solve this problem if you're dealing with a single country but it isn't feasible to hold a dozen different types of digitalized tokens for the sake of doing business with different countries. You might as well stick to traditional banks at that point and deal with them to issue out payments for you.
424  Economy / Economics / Re: Is the government can really make a way to end poverty or it depends on us? on: March 24, 2023, 03:27:00 PM
Government shouldn't be in the position to control inflation, but they've taken that responsibility upon themselves to try and handle the balancing act of currency manipulation. Depending on the country, the government has the ability to resolve most economic woes by opening up free markets, lowering tax rates and regulation to encourage entrepreneurship, and staying out of the creation of central bank policies which hamper growth.

An individual government can't control global affairs like war. Understand, however, that most of the economic problems you see are a result of government ineptitude, not the Ukrainian war. The war just made matters worse.

Whether a country is developed or not, rich or not, depends a lot on the government because they are the ones who run the country. But if you are poor or just a small part of society can't blame the government entirely, the government can't go door to door to check and help everyone in their country.

I find the problem to be the sanctimony of the government which is they would like to go door to door and help everyone in the country. Instead of physically going door to door, they create a social welfare state at the expense of the working class.
425  Economy / Economics / Re: Why didn't the fed buy back SVB's bonds? on: March 24, 2023, 01:50:40 PM
...

This is precisely why so many people were upset with the government intervention in the first place, similar to that of the '08 crisis.

Normally, a larger bank could come in and purchase up the assets of SVB because they would have the liquidity to spare. It's not as if creditors would be completely out of luck if the government did not step in. FDIC allegedly stopped private banks from coming in and purchasing SVB for whatever reason. If the remedy to a bank collapse is for the federal government to come in, then people might as well bank with the federal government and have them manage assets. And in fact, some of the socialist politicians in America advocate for such a system where investments are managed by the federal government instead of private institutions. Social security is already a system that works like this, and it's set to become insolvent in the near future.
426  Economy / Economics / Re: FTX Leaderboards: Someone lost $120m... on: March 23, 2023, 06:20:40 PM
Keeping 120M on an exchange, good grief.

"Kroll" is the agency FTX is using the to liquidate and reimburse creditors and apparently they have some experience with these sort of matters. Perhaps this person might get their money back, or at least part of it, but my understanding is these matters can take ages to settle. And who knows how many assets that are on their books actually exist for the purposes of liquidation. How much were FTX execs able to get away with and is now unrecoverable?
427  Economy / Economics / Re: There is more to the regulation's aim on: March 23, 2023, 04:56:17 PM
I don't know if anyone is thinking the same thing, Banks are collapsing and they want to regulate crypto? How is this going to be possible? How can a corrupt system brings a transparent regulation to the crypto space? I think that this regulation is a FAD, the aim behind this regulation is not about saving mankind from crypto rug pulls, I think the plan is to squeeze the life out of crypto because of the attention its getting.

If anything needs regulation, it is CENTRALIZED EXCHANGES only.
Yeah, it's not the entire market that needs regulations but those centralized exchanges and services that can be said to be at their control. These banking system are nowhere to go and that's why they're looking for ways to bail out and to tell people that they're doing good even if it's visible in our naked eyes on what's actually is happening on them. Together with the government, they're helping each other trying to regulate crypto but in reality, they should be the one that must be monitored because of the scenarios and events that has shown to the world on how corrupt they are.

We have been waiting for regulations for a long time, and until today there is none. Generally, people who like to invest will not touch something that is not regulated because who knows that by the next few days, BTC could be banned. I suppose it's the fear by the many investors in the US who had so much trust in thier SEC that also wants to keep crypto dead.

While they are introducing FEDnow also, I guess the goal will also be to make FEDcoin look better than BTC.



FedNow is the federal reserve's miserable attempt at trying to develop a digitalized payment platform to compete with what the private market offer. I imagine they might use the platform to introduce CBDC's considering a payment system like FedNow hasn't been developed by the fed for over four decades since the development of ACH.

Bitcoin won't be banned. The government will just offer new ways to regulate the growth of the space until it drives people away. And they might even try to force people to use their trash FedNow system while they're at it too.
428  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? on: March 23, 2023, 03:56:39 PM
I follow international and U.S. politics closely -- and I do not bet on them hardly ever, no matter what the odds are.

Too many real world factors change the odds and it only takes the slightest distraction to completely flip an election. Campaigns have gone up in flames over the most insignificant blunders, and paid actors have the potential to influence outcomes depending on their power.

Try and factor these extraneous influences is nearly impossible.
429  Economy / Economics / Re: White House - The Biden Administration thinks Economy is disturbed due to Crypto on: March 22, 2023, 07:02:53 PM
The Biden White House released an earlier report on crypto and they've laid out their positions clearly. They're going to follow the lead of higher regulations and curtailment of the crypto industry, perhaps introduction of CBDC's and raising taxes on crypto users. Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they start implementing wealth taxes for investors who sit on crypto in a desperate attempt to raise tax revenue and/or incentivize institutional investors to stay away from crypto.

Seeing as the ineptitude of the federal reserve has reached a boiling point, coincidentally the Biden administration seems more adamant than ever to regulate crypto.

And don't forget, when FTX crashed, they wasted no time to capitalize and used FTX to layout regulatory framework through executive orders: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/09/16/fact-sheet-white-house-releases-first-ever-comprehensive-framework-for-responsible-development-of-digital-assets/

These "fact sheets" are nothing but propaganda.
430  Economy / Economics / Re: Florida Governor DeSantis calls for CBDC ban on: March 22, 2023, 01:15:18 PM
I doubt it's going to work out like he hope, what possible threat could CBDC have when its completes Fiat in digital form? That's why this plan of his won't work out, the man is in fear that politicians will be able to move money without anyone knowing, but that's near impossible because CBDC is not a privacy stable coin, it is fully centralized and that's the main reason why many crypto fans don't want to have anything to do with the digital currency, it equals to the law and government spying on you, knowing what you are up to with your money.

His reasoning is clear -- it increases surveillance capabilities by the U.S. government. I'd add that it also gives even more centralized authority for the U.S. government to control monetary policy. Even though most banking is digital, USD is still a physical system. The U.S. government still recognizes physical cash as legal tender.

Should they move away from such a system and implement digitalized tokens as an alternative -- you can say goodbye to any sense of financial independence as a USD holder. Every token you have will be controllable by the U.S. federal government. It's a lousy system.

Most of the CBDC ban talks are political grandstanding, anyways. But it's still nice to see where a politician stands on these sorts of issues. Should DeSantis become President, it gives us a hint of where he'd take the federal reserve.
431  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Xi Jinping in Russia on: March 22, 2023, 01:06:02 PM
Is like Puttin is trying to have new allies which he can do business with,so that his country economy can survive without the western countries. This countries are China,Africa,India. He is trying to create a good international relationship with these countries.
Putin and Xi call each other none other than "dear friend", they drank vodka together ten years ago. If you do not understand what this means, I will explain - Russians usually drink vodka only with good friends.

Their friendship only exists as long as mutual benefit exists. If Russia begins to be bad for business, or perhaps if geopolitical interests misalign, then the friendship ceases.

Fast forward to 2023 the Biden crime family has managed to completely isolate the west from the rest of the world (can only imagine why the UK and EU are behaving like pathetic lapdogs, is there is "something" in it for the criminal banker leaders such as Rishi Sunak and Ursula Von Der Lies). They've done this through forcing policies on the west and terrorism (Nordstream sabotage). Just look back at the ridiculous angry outburst Biden gave during the state of union address "Name me one leader who wants to be like Xi Jinping, NAME ME ONE!" Xi, who then went onto broker peace between Saudi and Iran! Madness, that the media (I admit it's mostly propaganda but stil...) didn't point out either the sheer stupidity of Biden or the sheer evilness or is it both?

It's become popular for U.S. politicians to demonize China as part of their campaign strategy because most Americans don't understand anything about international relations so it's good for polling. But the problem with Biden is his family loves to dabble in dodgy business in which his son is the beneficiary of lucrative Chinese business deals. The Chinse know this. Biden looks comically weak on the global stage.
432  Economy / Economics / Re: The problem with Credit Suisse and banking sector. on: March 21, 2023, 05:27:38 PM
...

These emergency lines of credit are given to the institutions, but not the individuals. Funny how that works.

The government shouldn't be in the business of saving enterprises from their bad investments because it occurs at the tax payers' expense. Contemperaneous to these bailouts, do the taxpayers really have any say on which institution should be bailed out and which ones should collapse? Of course election time, voters have a choice to make their voices heard. But it'll be a little too late by then.
433  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How much these features weigh most when you choose your favorite casino? on: March 19, 2023, 02:54:58 AM
No Kyc

My number one priority. Other features on your list aren't too important to me.

The common tactic for a lot of casinos is to hide KYC behind their TOS and issue a KYC check when a user wins something sizeable. I'm not going to submit documents to a business that could disappear the next day. Even some of the supposed reputable casinos in the past have had issues with KYC.

Reputation/KYC I'd consider one in the same. A casino that hides KYC behind their terms of service and sporadically KYC's in order to avoid paying out wins is immediately disqualifying.
434  Economy / Economics / Re: SVB Analysis Shows More Than 186 US Banks Might Still Collapse on: March 19, 2023, 02:08:14 AM
50% seems about right considering these banks don't hold enough cash to insure depositors in the event the economy crashes and there's a need for liquidity.

The narrative of failing banks dates back to the economic crisis of 2008. And even further back to the banking industry becoming increasingly deregulated.

There could be whatever regulation on SVB in retrospect and the bank would still fail unless the regulation were to be applied to the federal reserve themselves. It was them that created trillions of dollars of cash flowing into the economy in 2020-2021 and seemingly tech stocks is where a lot of that money was funneled to. The bubble popped and so did SVB. The treasury bonds they were holding onto only added to the complications. SVB can't control the inflation rate.
435  Economy / Economics / Re: Should we take the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse as indicators of Woes Ahead on: March 18, 2023, 05:40:17 PM
When the banks are 'saved' by the government, they're injecting new dollars into the economy that shouldn't be there in the first place. Switzerland doesn't have a terribly high inflation rate but USD is inflating at a high rate so the federal reserve has reason not to bail out the banks. Also, do we want to be in a position where tax payers will cover the losses of the banking institutions should their investments go sour? Individual investors do not have such luxury, so why should the banks?

Of course, the money has to come from somewhere, as it came after the 2008 crisis and saved many who were supposed to fail. The same is happening today, although at least for now it has not reached the stage where a chain reaction has been created and everything starts to collapse at such a speed that it cannot be prevented. This is why the reactions of the authorities are very quick and effective in order to calm the panic while they still have room for maneuver. And the ECB recently declared that the eurozone is stable and that in case of any problems they can act quickly - which means that the life belts are ready in case they are needed.

The issue I have with bailouts is that the money introduced into the economy never finds its way out of circulation so inflation is only going to worsen when USD is currently inflating at 40 year highs.

I didn't think there should have been a bailout in 2008 either to be clear. I would argue the '08 recovery was attenuated with the actions the government took in bailing out the institutions that were giving sub prime mortgages knowing their investment to be high risk. Then you have years of QE finally crashing down.
436  Economy / Economics / Re: If they have the solution, why are banks still failing? on: March 17, 2023, 08:00:20 PM
SVB wasn't even mismanaged. I doubt when this gets reviewed there would be any legal finding of misconduct unlike with FTX.

SVB had banked on U.S. treasury bonds for a sizeable chunk of their portfolio and were ripped when the federal reserve starting raising interest rates. They started trying to raise capital desperately and it caused a panic and everyone ran to withdraw their balances simultaneously. The fact is that this type of situation can happen to literally any bank if every customer decides to withdraw their cash. If the banking institution isn't to secure emergency funding, within a day the entire institution collapses.

They got greedy and yea, they were unlucky too. They shouldn't have invested such large amount of customers funds in a long term investment without thinking about the repercussions if things went south, and I believe they thought about it but they went ahead with it anyway. When the federal reserve started raising interest rates they panicked and got desperate as you said so that led to the panicking of the public. SVB would have been okay eventually if people did not panic but you can't blame the public for panicking because what normal human wouldn't panic when the bank is panicking?

I don't even think they got greedy. U.S. treasury bonds aren't supposed to be high risk investments. People seem to be overlooking the fact that the current predicament by the federal reserved being forced to raise interest rates were entirely manufactured by them. They decided to inject trillions of dollars into the economy and it's banks like SVB that were sitting on a pile of cash without a place to put it. 2020-2022 were uncertain years for investors, U.S. treasury bonds were not a bad idea. At some point, they should have been aware that the interest rates hikes were going to impact those investments and not have had mass sell offs in panic in order to raise liquidity.

I don't blame people for panicking and ultimately the banks are responsible for their investments. Doesn't seem prudent to blame the bank for operating within a system that's inherently corrupted with state sponsored fiscal ineptitude by the federal reserve.
437  Economy / Economics / Re: How will Fed bailing out banks increase inflation? on: March 17, 2023, 05:25:54 PM
The Fed creates money to bail out the bank, adding to inflation. When the money is returned to the Fed, the inflation will be reversed.

There isn't a reason for the fed to introduce even more dollars into the economy after their COVID spending spree. The inflation won't be reversed, the inflation rate will go down but the price increases will still be there. That becomes a problem when the wage increases are disproportional from the inflation rate.

And of course, when the fed introduces new money into circulation, it's difficult to take that money out. Interest rate hikes are the only remedy they have and that has ramifications for GDP growth.
438  Economy / Economics / Re: Another bank?! | First Republic Bank stock halted for volatility on: March 17, 2023, 02:37:54 PM
Too bad!!! These banks were managed by careless bankers that are not different from Sam Bankman-Fried and company. If the bank reveal it's customers that has bad debt I guess the bank's debtors will be politicians and global company CEOs. It is possible that they gave loans to their friend and cronies without considering the implications on the bank. I thought loans and credits are not given without collateral or security? What happened to customer's funds? This is a glaring case of corruption and mismanagement.

I wouldn't say SVB carelessly managed funds at all. U.S. treasury bonds are not traditionally high risk. I'm aware the argument could be made that investing in U.S. treasury bonds in an inflationary economy is risky -- SVB should have been aware that their treasury bonds were not going to be as valuable as they once were. That's far from reckless behavior. Bankman-Fried knowingly mismanaged funds which caused liquidity issues. SVB tried to raise funds and there was an uncontrollable run on the banks.

But it's good to read that the Federal Reserve is willing to go above the FDIC insured limit of $250,000. This means that government is willing to bail these struggling banks. It is also possible that the US government will also not let First Republic and other regional banks fail because it will have negative consequences on the economy of the country.

There should not be an incentive for banks to risk client funds and be bailed out by the government in case their bets don't work out.

Do you, say as an individual investor, have such safety measures in place? The government would not help you in such an event, why should they help the banks?
439  Economy / Economics / Re: Should we take the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse as indicators of Woes Ahead on: March 16, 2023, 06:54:08 PM
As far as I know, both banks will be saved, and just today I read that Credit Suisse requested help from the Swiss central bank and that they were approved for help of up to 50 billion Swiss francs, which is about 54 billion EUR. The assumptions are that this will be enough to save the bank, and I have no doubt that the Swiss central bank will do its best to preserve the credibility of its banks.

I don't want to speculate at all about what could happen next, but I don't think we should expect a complete collapse of the banking system in the US or the EU. Of course, this does not mean that the banks are safe, especially the small and less well-known ones that probably no one will save.


When the banks are 'saved' by the government, they're injecting new dollars into the economy that shouldn't be there in the first place. Switzerland doesn't have a terribly high inflation rate but USD is inflating at a high rate so the federal reserve has reason not to bail out the banks. Also, do we want to be in a position where tax payers will cover the losses of the banking institutions should their investments go sour? Individual investors do not have such luxury, so why should the banks?

I'd expect for larger banks to purchase the assets of SVB and every other failed bank at a discount which would provide some liquidity for their creditors. But people are still losing money even if the government provides support. The economy is in for a blood bath. This is only the beginning.
440  Economy / Economics / Re: Bank Bailouts and Stock Market. on: March 16, 2023, 03:44:49 PM
Some people and media also say that the system broke and that means that federal reserves won't rise interest rates at the next meeting. And I think it's completely wrong. I think they will just rise rates for another 0.25% as a response to the SVB situation. The inflation is still pretty high and FED will keep fighting it, they can't afford to stop right now.

So I think we will still see a lot more bankruptcies, there will be more layoffs and the stock market will keep suffering from that. This also means that bitcoin will probably find a new bottom.

It's not that simple to raise interest rates again when there's a liquidity crisis.

Understand the options the federal reserve have right now are either let the banks collapse and hope they get scooped up by the larger financial players (which is what would happen considering these banks are sitting on assets will eventually mature to somewhat of a return) OR they introduce liquidity into the system by pausing the interest rates hikes and bailouts which will prolong the inflation crisis.

The reason this crisis is occurring is because of interest rates hikes in the first place. Would the federal reserve rethink their course of action seeing the mess they've caused? I'm not in support of such matters but certainly the White House would support bailouts considering the world economy is in a fragile state. Elections are close.
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