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661  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bear market likely over? on: December 03, 2022, 08:13:09 AM
Seems the bear market is likely going soonest. Congratulations in advance to those who bought low and those hodling for a long time. There is likely going to be a new all time high to be achieved before this year comes to an end. If you can, fill up your bag but do your own research.

Never ceases to amaze me how baseless the speculation can be. We're a few weeks away from the end of the year and the likelihood of an ATM is virtually zero.
Bitcoin's utility goes far beyond crypto day trading so it's to my dismay to see folks perhaps not see the bigger picture. The price today, tomorrow, or next year is not really the end game anyways. BTC reaches another ATM, and then what?

Anyway, given the recent FTX drama and poor economic indicators for the global economy, my expectation is for the current state of the market to last well into next year before we see even the slightest amount of relief. I'm not concerned, neither should you be. Bitcoiners are used to this. We've been through much worse.
662  Economy / Economics / Re: FTX Drama and Global Empact on: December 03, 2022, 07:50:30 AM
-cut-
Unless he's aiming to portray himself as utterly incompetent therefore not subject to any criminal liability, there is no benefit to talking to the media.
Amazes me that this person was trusted with billions of funds. If the ignorance route is the legal strategy for SBF, he'll have to convince a lot of people of his utter stupidity and ignorance to have not known that user deposits were being used fraudulently. As if anyone is dumb enough to believe it.
That would be actually most viable tactic at this point. That would mean we would hear even more insane and immature things from behind the curtains as everything that makes hims seem incompetent.

Come to think of it, maybe this has been a plan for a long time now. That would explain so much of his statements and reactions. Remember CZ saying that Sam is tweeting like a psychopath? This could have all just been his way of acting like a lunatic.

Seems to me ignorance is the only viable legal defense here. That is, of course, if the Department of Justice in the U.S. would be willing to indict him. If charges were on the horizon, he would bail to a country without an extradition agreement so I'm not confident he'll face any repercussions regardless. Seems like these folks always get away with white collar crime as long as they have the right connections. SBF was a well known political donor spending tens of millions donating to democratic politicians in the U.S. Doesn't look like he was donating this money out of kindness.
663  Economy / Economics / Re: The Economist: 335000 people could "freeze to death" in Europe on: December 02, 2022, 09:58:17 PM
335000 doesn't seem hyperbolic -- "freeze to death" is not in the proverbial sense that someone literally dies of hypothermia. There's a lot of ways someone can die from too low temperatures, mostly it's the elderly who die of heart conditions because the temperature provides excess stress on the cardiopulmonary system.

In any event, the only global cause of this issue is the energy crisis driven by the Ukraine war. This is mostly self inflicted, Europe chose not to diversify their energy sources and took a deep dive into unsustainable renewables. Cheap energy saves lives.
664  Economy / Economics / Re: EU Moving to Ban Privacy Coins: Report on: December 02, 2022, 04:30:11 PM
Banning the aforementioned alts would probably make Bitcoin more attractive, but I don't see any benefit in eliminating the competition through government brute force. First it's Dash, Monero, then it might be a blanket ban on all crypto's for the next arbitrary reason. Stopping money laundering by banning privacy coins seems like a palatable excuse but I'm curious as to how much the EU estimates money laundering to be taking place via crypto. Blockchains aren't even remotely close to being security risk.

Given the rise of actual violence with war, it's a bit laughable that their concerns lie with crypto.
665  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Kedmi broke up with Solovyov on: December 02, 2022, 02:42:35 PM
Many of the Putin loyalists have been turning given Russian morale is probably at an all time low. It's becoming hard to keep up. Vladimir Solovyov casually calling for the desecration of Ukrainian cities as if Russian fascism was anything short of insanity, immune from rebuke.

For this, another would have been immediately sent to jail, but Kedmi knew that as an Israeli citizen they would not dare to touch him. Naturally, participation in the Russian TV feeder, where conscience is traded for a good reward, will no longer shine for him, but with honor, as he thinks, he will leave this Russian nest of terrorist propaganda.

Perhaps, but does being an Israeli citizen offer protections beyond permeability? I haven't kept up with the Putin hit list to see if Israeli's are off the table. Putin hasn't hesitated to off detractors across borders. He might just have an "accident."
666  Other / Politics & Society / Re: An Iranian Man Killed For Celebrating their Loss To The USA in the World Cup on: December 02, 2022, 02:22:28 PM
Quote
Samak “was targeted directly and shot in the head by security force following the defeat of the national team against America”, said the Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights.

I saw this story circulating around and brushed it off as hyperbolic with incomplete context. Granted, the Iranian regime needs no defense, their actions speak for itself and their human rights abuses are long withstanding. I suppose it's baked into the cake with most Islamic theocracies.

That being said, there's probably more to this story than what's being reported. This guy was shot in the head for nothing more than celebrating victory?
667  Economy / Economics / Re: FTX Drama and Global Empact on: December 01, 2022, 04:34:51 PM
https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1598296985010073600

SBF talking to the media when he might be facing down the barrel of a grand jury indictment on charges that would confine him to potential years in prison. His lawyers would have advised against it because his statements would be used against him in prosecution. Unless he's aiming to portray himself as utterly incompetent therefore not subject to any criminal liability, there is no benefit to talking to the media.

Amazes me that this person was trusted with billions of funds. If the ignorance route is the legal strategy for SBF, he'll have to convince a lot of people of his utter stupidity and ignorance to have not known that user deposits were being used fraudulently. As if anyone is dumb enough to believe it.
668  Economy / Economics / Re: A Hundred UK Companies To Adopt Four-Day Working Week With No Pay Cut on: December 01, 2022, 02:36:34 PM
Everything is strategically done to increase worker productivity, so I see no issue for a pilot test of 2,600 workers to see if a 4 day work week would work out better for the company and the employee. There are some tough labor shortages and seemingly a lot of workers are planning on leaving their current employer for reasons like returning to the office after working from home for over a year.

This might be a viable strategy to retain those WFH employees. I've seen some companies also adopt a WFH hybrid, where employees might only be required to show up to the office on certain days of the week.
669  Economy / Economics / Re: American EVs reduced gasoline consumption by just 0.54% in 2021 on: November 30, 2022, 09:23:17 PM
So it sounds like the folks that are purchasing EV's aren't the ones that are driving enough for it to make any dent in gasoline consumption which mean the pollution created by producing those EV's and charging them probably weren't worth it in the first place.

Folks tend to forget the amount of pollution associated with manufacturing EV batteries or even the energy required to charge them in the first place. All of it is fossil fuel based. Reduce gasoline consumption and the problem of carbon emissions doesn't magically go away.
670  Economy / Economics / Re: Is a ban on Retirees Cypto Account a fair deal? on: November 30, 2022, 03:37:50 PM
The NY state government has no business telling folks how to manage their IRA's as if they're children and need the government to come in and save them. Just another example of Bitcoin/crypto regulation under the guise of consumer protection.

Letitia James is also the Attorney General who promised to go after former President Trump and assured her constituency that she would go around fishing for a crime to charge him with. I believe Trump is facing civil liability in NY: https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2022/attorney-general-james-takes-action-immediately-stop-donald-trump-and-trump

Nothing more than a radical politician that's throwing the book of law out the door for her own political interests.
671  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Post Oil Personal Transportation on: November 27, 2022, 01:14:38 PM
If we're out of energy that we can't even engage in personal transportation, doesn't that spell disaster for Bitcoin miners? Are miners going to have hamster wheels powering their rigs?
672  Economy / Economics / Re: From Tom Brady to Shaq, FTX’s Celebrity Promoters May Be On the Hook for Damages on: November 27, 2022, 11:40:49 AM
Quote
The celebrities could be liable if the investors can prove they failed to disclose that they were being paid to promote the crypto exchange or had invested in the company, or were hawking unregistered securities. The pending lawsuits are in federal court in Miami and San Francisco.

These lawsuits are most likely frivolous and based on the astronautically low chance that one of these celebrities had inept lawyers/agents who didn't tell their clients that they're required to disclose the entities they advertise.

Granted they followed proper law and disclosed they were getting compensated, they should not be held liable. Sets up bad precedents to target advertisers if they themselves were not knowingly advertising something fraudulent. It's not merely enough that they should've known, but that they actually did know. Of course, anyone with any common sense of how these exchanges work would realize the FTX was being run by children and was bound to collapse at some point.

Additionally, consumers also should stop providing patronage to companies for the sole reason of celebrity endorsement. It's nonsense.
673  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Elon Says He’ll Make His Own Phone If Apple and Google Deplatform Twitter on: November 27, 2022, 08:46:46 AM
I think this is a genius move by Elon. There have been rumors for years that Tesla would be releasing a phone at some point. With Apple getting closer to entering the car business it was inevitable that Elon would release a phone. Now he will be able to say he’s releasing a phone in response to Apple’s unfair practices and garner a following for their new product under the guise of a more free mobile platform. This latest chirp to Apple is nothing more than a brilliant marketing ploy. However, it doesn’t change that a phone is coming from Tesla.

Doesn't seem to me like he'd be successful. Tesla stock is way down, Twitter lost something like 2 billion dollars in advertisers that had existed last year who no longer exist this year. He's more than welcome to throw money away on a smart phone, but good luck to him on cracking the Android/Apple monopoly.

I'd love for there to be alternatives because of the left's nonstop cancel campaign on any app they don't like, but Elon isn't acting discipline or focused here, he's acting on impulse (the same reason he bought twitter in the first place).
674  Other / Off-topic / Re: Geely is rolling out swap stations for heavy duty EVs like cement mixers on: November 27, 2022, 05:22:55 AM
The limiting factor for EV's are the batteries. Not only are they less efficient than a lot of gasoline powered cars, the raw materials for them are incredibly resource intensive to obtain: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8390110/

Nickel and lithium are not easy to come by. The metric tons of materials that need to be mined in order to produce one EV battery is extraordinarily high. Of course, mining operations are fossil fuel based and will be for the foreseeable future, so those EV batteries are creating a lot of pollution merely for creation.

Maintenance, upkeep, and charging are all fossil fuel based. EV's are not the answer.
675  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of U.S. dollars on: November 27, 2022, 03:38:43 AM
Quote
If implemented as planned for the first quarter of 2023, the new policy "will fundamentally change our balance of payments and significantly reduce the persistent depreciation of our currency," Bawumia said.

They aren't alone. It simply is not moral for a country to hold any assets which depreciate at near double digits. USD was alleged to have been the stable asset when the reality of such "stable asset" like fiats are a fixed depreciation rate of 1-2% on a good year, and near double digit depreciation on a bad year.

Gold is better than USD, crypto is better than them all.
676  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: gambling winner identity on: November 26, 2022, 11:29:23 AM
I just want to add that in some countries, lottery winners are revealed in public because of transparency issues. I just don't know what specific countries are those. But as far as my knowledge on that is concerned, it's only the lottery as the gambling type that has cases of revealing winners.

Outside the lottery or other gambling types, there are no cases I  heard that winners are revealed. And if we refer to online gambling sites, that is something we can't expect even if there's no privacy data act or something regulations like that.

Lotteries require public transparency because the ticket issuers aren't incurring any risk when people purchase tickets, so it'd be easy to hand select a winner. Other types of gambling, such as playing on a betting platform, require the same transparency between the platform and the player but that transparency can be private because the only money at risk is the individual player. If the player's inclined, they can request proof that the game they're playing on isn't rigged.

Realistically, you could incorporate blockchain tech into lottery systems to make them anonymous and transparent and I've seen some online betting platforms pull this off. Haven't yet seen a country adopt a blockchain lottery system yet.
677  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: When will Sam Bankman-Fried go to jail? on: November 26, 2022, 09:11:55 AM
Bankman-Fraud will get the Epstein treatment. Meaning, they will make him disappear and he is not going to spend a single day in a jail cell. When he has corrupted political friends like the Clintons, he can avoid any punishment. If the media tells you that he is in jail, that means he is in his home playing PS5. If they tell you he is dead, that means he has a new name, a new face (hopefully both his new name and face will be less stupid than his current ones) and he is in somewhere which you won’t ever know about.

He's a political donor. Out donated everyone except George Soros in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections. He'll get the special treatment because democratic appointees are in the Department of Justice. It's not good for business when you prosecute your political donors, of course.

In any sane world, SBF would've already been in jail and charged with fraud, probably held without bail for being a flight risk. Makes you wonder what all those political donations were for. Maybe he saw his demise coming and figured lining up the pockets of politicians was his way out.
678  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Concern about climate change shrinks globally as threat grows on: November 25, 2022, 10:37:54 PM
I was looking at the Gallup world risk poll and couldn't find the numbers on climate change, it seems odd to me that less people care about it now than they did in the past. The climate change alarmism has picked up steam over the last decade, maybe folks have had enough.

A study by the Institute for Economics and Peace of 228 countries and territories found that 750 million people globally are now affected by undernourishment and climate change as well as rising inflation, and Russia’s war in Ukraine will exacerbate food insecurity in the future.

Okay, but these are independent issues. Undernourishment isn't a climate change issue and inflation isn't either. You don't tackle any of these problems by outlawing oil/gas/nuclear and forcing people to pay higher energy costs under the guise of climate change activism.
679  Other / Off-topic / Re: Increase in cost of running the family on: November 25, 2022, 11:31:22 AM
...

This is because lack of education in under developed nations. In some developed nations, the birth rate is going down. It takes no effort to pump out as many children as you can when half of them die before the age of 5 and live in absolute poverty.

There's a cultural reason for it that preexists the economic hardships which have originated over the last couple of years, but I can imagine the problem's going to get a lot worse now that the global economy is entering a downturn. Has nothing to do with laziness.

There's an issue with labor shortages and not enough young workers subsidizing old retired workers. If there's a birth rate collapse, then you're going to have a lot of old folks that are going to be impoverished.
680  Economy / Exchanges / Re: What does Proof of Reserves mean and... on: November 25, 2022, 04:08:56 AM
The lack of liquidity is a problem, not the only problem.

First of all, there's a lot of ambiguity in where the assets of an exchange exist and whether they're liquid assets or not. I imagine they do this purposefully because most exchanges are great at mismanaging their users' funds. I don't anticipate many enterprises are willing to disclose proof of reserves to any degree of certainty.

Say you had a real time checking mechanism to determine the underlying liquidity an exchange has, that still doesn't matter -- you transfer any funds into an online account and those funds are not yours. They're an assurance that the funds will exist if you choose to withdraw, and that assurance is worthless. You're still liable to hacks or getting locked from your account for whatever arbitrary reason.

Proof of reserves help but they don't solve the issue.
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