Early indications are that Russia won't be able to sustain their economy with the sanctions in place, but that doesn't matter to Putin because his economy wasn't in a great place prior to the invasion, and he knew the sanctions would have further sunk his economy. It's not as if he feels the sanctions directly, it's his citizens. Quite frankly, there is no going back once he decided to invade. He can't simply reverse course and come away with nothing, it's not how war works.

China is still willing to do business with Russia, though. So at least Putin has them as a clear avenue of commerce.

NATO selling a few jets to Ukraine isn't enough.



If the propaganda is to be believed, Russia will surrender themselves, withdraw all their troops from the country, and Ukraine will magically be isolated from any future military aggression.

The reality, of course, just involves Putin slaughtering as many civilians as possible until Ukraine eventually concedes, or until Putin is able to assassinate most of the Ukrainian government and install his puppets. Surely Ukraine should fight back, what else could they do? But I only mention this to dispel the false beliefs that war is a one or two month event. It will lasts years, and many more people will die unfortunately. The large crowd of people with Ukrainian flags on their social media profiles are in for a disappointment.

U.S. officials believe Kyiv will fall in 4-6 weeks, with Russia/Ukraine war lasting over a decade.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/russia-ukraine-news-kyiv-war-putin-invasion-talks-today/#post-update-8de46653

With the amount of Ukrainian propaganda floating around, there is this notion that Ukraine is winning this war or even has the potential to win this war. It simply is not true. The Russian military has too many resources to throw away and the economic ramifications does not effect Putin directly. His fragile ego will put his political ambitions over his constituency. So without any input from NATO, this is prolonged losing battle for Ukraine. It seems like Russia has been targeting civilian areas over the last few days, and there are some reports that it might ramp up within the coming weeks. A 10-20 year time line sounds reasonable, and at the end Ukraine might end up being a wasteland like Afghanistan.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/us-officials-fear-putins-government-may-arrest-americans-russia-rcna18088

Some days ago, the U.S. issued to their citizens a message to get out of Russia. Other countries might have done the same. U.S. officials questioning whether Putin is planning on jailing private U.S. citizens in order to use as leverage. Would Putin be so foolish as to directly force U.S. involvement by holding American citizens hostage? Perhaps he is so desperate, seeing his army is failing to capture a country so ill-equipped for war.

It depends on what those sanctions are and it's a dangerous balancing act. Clearly the Russian economy is in shambles but Putin isn't the one that faces the consequences, his citizens do. Why bother with sanctions? The risk/reward calculation - Economically isolate Russia and hope they can bend the knee and waive their army off of Ukraine. Any future Russian aggression is deterred and so less pressure on Eastern European countries of an invasion or geopolitical tension. But consider what sanctions actually do to the countries imposing these economic restrictions. Well, USD is really the only asset that should be analyzed here because the US economy is the largest, so whatever other countries decide to do will have a limited effect.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/russia-to-remove-dollar-assets-from-national-wealth-fund.html

Key points are as follows: Over 186 billion USD was cut from the Russian National Wealth Fund; Yuan is expected to compose 30 percent of assets. Russia and China have been circumventing SWIFT through their own financial intermediaries.

Russia was planning economic isolation from USD for a long time to avoid sanctions by reducing their USD asset holdings from the National Wealth Fund. They accomplish this by swapping out USD for Yuan in their reserves and also reducing the USD output of Russia/China trading. Under normal circumstances, Russia/China transactions would usually be conducted with USD because it works as the best universal currency (accepted everywhere by major banks, low inflation at the time, and sustainable - backed by a powerful government).

Now, USD no longer has any feasibility and sanctions will accelerate the abandonment of USD. When you begin attach politics to the currency, it encourages other avenues. USD inflation is high, and the freezing of Russian assets affiliated with USD sends a message to any holders of USD that their assets can be frozen instantaneously.

Anyways, sanctions seem to be working since Ruble's value continues to drop, but Russia still has taken steps to free themselves of US sanctions, so after it a while it can backfire. And really, it accelerates adoption of something like Bitcoin which are immune to asset freezes. Time will tell if it will stop Putin but my guess is it won't. He is willing to throw his citizens under the bus because he is aging and wants to accomplish something before he departs into irrelevancy.

The pro-Ukrainian propaganda machine is working quite well, creating this perception that there aren't corruption issues by the Ukrainian government. That still doesn't mean Ukraine shouldn't receive support from NATO (sanctions at the least), only because Russia capturing Ukraine means the other NATO countries have to deal with refugees from Ukraine, and an authoritarian Russia that receives no pushback from overthrowing a country's government isn't good for their own safety.

Tulsi Gabbard isn't off the mark, but she'll be seen as being pro-Russia offering a bit clarity on Ukraine.


And it's a death sentence for them. This shouldn't be encouraged for people with no training to be handed a weapon of war and die fighting the Russian army.

They can already freeze bank accounts without CBDC easily. All the banking institutions are aligned with the government and will take orders from them at will. Now, CBDCs could cut out the middleman. Instead of cooperating with the banking institutions to freeze funds, the government could just do it themselves. But I question whether that would make any difference. Canada was able to freeze these accounts without any evidence that the holders of the funds did anything illegal, and the banks just accepted the premise that the funds needed to be frozen.

You could write a book on why Russia is invading Ukraine - to sum it up for you: Putin wants to maintain national security and relive the glory days of the USSR. Ukraine is getting too close to the west and might've been on the verge of joining NATO, and Putin does not want geopolitical pressure so close to his borders.

Anyway, we already knew China and Russia were indirect allies. This comes as no shock to anyone paying attention to China's foreign policy. China understands the Russian invasion will help them invade Taiwan because they recognize the international community is doing nothing to get involved. China will continue to strengthen their economy and sees no reason to stand diplomatically with the west. For reference, China still supplies North Korea, so their moral compass is exactly aligned with the rest of the world.

War is not supposed to be profitable unless the country under invasion has natural resources that's worth something. Ukraine has nothing. Putin views the invasion of Ukraine as an investment into Russia’s national security. Ukraine inevitably would have formed closer ties to the west and possibly would have joined NATO had it not been for an invasion. Putin understands the geopolitical pressure of having a western ally right on its border, so he's willing to eat the cost of war.

I’m sorry to hear about your family but why would NATO protect Ukraine? The Ukrainian‘s need to defend themselves and their sovereignty. The only support NATO countries would provide is participating in sanctions, but even then it’s still up to Ukraine to force Russian troops out of their country. It would be beneficial for NATO to provide arms to the Ukrainian people, but of course that would never happen because Eastern Europe needs their Russian oil. You can thank the US and Nord Steam 2 when they failed to sanction NS2 in 2021.

I cannot verify this source so take it with a grain of salt - https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497425201969123328

Read reports hat Russian troops were planning on capturing Kyiv within last 24 hours, but the source above states no captures of any Ukrainian cities were reported over the previous day. I cannot imagine any circumstances in which Putin is retreating so early, so this only tells me prolonged occupation of Russian troops in or around major Ukrainian cities if Putin decides not to capture to put troops on the ground in Kyiv. This is being celebrated as if the Ukrainians are winning. I would remind those that celebrate such a minor victory that these events can last years. If not Kyiv today, then tomorrow.

You're not wrong.

At least it is voluntary compliance and not a draft system, but I do see your point. Untrained soldiers going against the trained Russian military with better weaponry and tactics, it's asking for a death sentence. As pessimistic as it may be, Ukraine is better off conceding to Russia. They don't stand any chance against the Russian army without help from other countries, and they've received nothing. I don't get what Zelenskyy's end goal is here - how many Ukrainians need to die while Russia inevitably takes over the country.

Oddly seeing insurmountable pile of propaganda clips, some perhaps not even from the current events, with what appears to be Ukrainian forces either killing or displaying dead Russian soldiers. Gives the impression that the Ukrainians will not get slaughtered if this continues on.

War's an investment in national security, not a profitable business enterprise. The investment is you hold power and secure safety for your citizens, and that you're willing to pay significant capital in order to maintain security. Russian stock market will continue to tumble with what ever sanctions the U.S. and EU decide to play on Russia, but Putin does not have that in mind. He views the west as a threat to Russia's existence and felt the need to invest in an invasion of Ukraine so that he wouldn't face as much geopolitical pressure from NATO. The only way we'd see if the investment was worth its cost is if Russia is successful in capturing Ukraine. Odds are in their favor.

Where's the solidarity the U.S. is showing for Ukraine? I don't consider well wishes on Twitter to be anything substantive - those tweets do not protect from rockets or tank shells. The U.S. said they would not get involved and the troops they have in Eastern Europe are only there to deter Russia from pushing forward to NATO countries. I don't see why Russia would be compelled to invade those countries, Putin isn't that sadistic to take Ukraine and then move to a NATO country, but it's also true many were doubtful of a full scale invasion. I've seen crazier things that've happened.

US will settle for sanctions instead, much more convenient than warfare.

The rationale behind an invasion is logical. Anyone that would suggest they'd do something differently is lying. Putin cannot have Ukraine join the USSR, he recognizes the West is weak in foreign policy and will have no other opportunity to invade, and so there leaves no alternative. Doesn't take military strategist to put together his motivation or why he might be so brazen to launch a full scale invasion.


NATO will do nothing, they are cowardly and don't want their economies to suffer over a country that is meaningless to them. Having read through some of the sanction exclusions on Russia, it's amusing to see how many holes are carved out for countries that are unwilling to to sacrifice hits to their economies to support Ukraine.

And Russia still isn't banned from SWIFT. So that should tell you something about how serious all these sanctions are. We're far away from any bullets being exchanged if they can't even agree on the sanctions.

From the citizen's perspective, no one. Families ripped apart, economy takes a hit, and you essentially end up with destabilized countries that give way for power vacuums to form, which has been the case in the Middle East for years. On the other hand, the military industrial complex, rich private energy firms that might capitalize on new natural resources over any captured regions, all the rest, absolutely love going to war. The only profitable enterprises that gains from these wars are those that can get ahead of the game, meanwhile everyone else suffers.

This is the result of giving up nuclear weapons. Surely this would not have happened if those nukes Ukraine had in the 90's were still theirs. Not saying destabilized countries should have nuclear weapons, but the least the U.S. could have done is hold up their end of the deal and provide protection to Ukraine.

As with most things, it comes down to greed. Ukraine is useless to the U.S. and all NATO countries, while Russia has the natural resources. So they'll let the country fall as long as the EU gets their oil.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1496702809097527297

Tulsi Gabbard (democratic politician from United States) had a similar opinion - resolution through diplomacy. It simply does not take into account the demands Putin would want.

I too was one part of the crowd thinking Russian aggression could have been stopped with diplomacy just recently...and then Putin launches a military invasion with bombings and missile strikes. That ship has sailed. My initial thinking was an invasion could be pushed off by making concessions about NATO, and then Putin would move the goal posts later and demand more. Though now it is clear, you do not negotiate with unstable regimes, it does not work out well. See North Korea and Iran and where the U.S. has taken that diplomacy - no where. Russia will roll through Ukraine, you're right, but perhaps some resistance from Ukraine would be better than conceding their entire country to a murderous dictator that wants to see the USSR rise again.

Side note - what's particularly interesting is the repeated pattern of giving up nuclear weapons and than proceeding to be invaded because there is no way to defend a nation without weapons of mass destruction and mutually assured destruction. Some of those Soviet era nukes Ukraine had in the 90's would have been a great deterrent.

I was rather surprised at people saying that BTC would not tumble in price with a war breaking out between Russia and Ukraine. The markets all move together, especially during uncertain times. The banking systems of Ukraine have apparently been attacked, so even if there had been motive for Ukrainians to adopt BTC, their economy was never big enough for it to matter.

Didn't expect a full scale invasion with military action. Thought Donetsk and Luhansk were easy targets, little to no resistance by Ukraine and perhaps Putin would stop at that. Apparently not.  Zelensky put out a message stating the Ukrainian military would be on defense, but there is no point - Russia's military is too strong. Putin is unhinged.