The federal authorities that seized the Silk Road crypto held onto it and then auctioned it. IIRC there were some investigators that had tried to steal some portion of the Bitcoin that was confiscated from the matter but was not successful. If Germany is smart they'd just hold onto it instead of selling it and keep it secured. If the feds had waited, they would have not lost out on hundreds of millions - they sold in 2015.

Venezuela based their economy on oil prices so it was almost as if their currency was pegged to oil. They mismanaged their economy and when oil prices crashed, so did the Venezuelan economy. If Russia were interested in stabilizing their currency, I suppose a gold standard would help, but it would make sense just to adopt a Bitcoin as a currency at that point and ditch ruble all together (I understand for obvious reasons why Russia would not do this, more of just a hypothetical).

Perhaps the discussion Russia should be having would be one geared towards saving their economy and not ruble.

Before the war, 10-25 percent was realistic. Post-war, I don't think 50 percent is an exaggeration. Energy prices are too high and the German economy was restricted with COVID. These issue are compounding the global supply chain issues that were already in place so you can expect the bump in food prices.

What's concerning is that the formula Germany has going for them (COVID restrictions, high energy prices, global supply chain issues) essentially apply to every country in the world so the food shortages are not going to be isolated to just Germany.

People were labeled as alarmists for suggesting this type of possibility a year ago due to COVID without even having the war in foresight.

If the U.S. really wanted to, they could pull it off. Though their track record on these sort of assassinations might not be the greatest. The CIA couldn't take out Castro after over half a dozen attempts. Hopefully their tactics have improved. If the MSM reports are to be believed and that Putin's health is declining, the U.S. may not even bother. He's nearly 70, they could just wait it out. Trying to kill a world leader like Putin would prompt the nukes IMO.

Russia’s power lies within its nuclear capabilities only. Their economy is peanuts compared to the western world. Even with the invasion of Ukraine in the world is not as concerned with Russia unless they make advancements on a NATO affiliated country. It’s true that some Eastern European countries are receiving military support from the US as a precaution but I would not consider that to be any major concern. If they truly were concerned they would have nuclear submarines on standby. This is a war between Russia and Ukraine the rest of the world is just watching.

https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/

Russia is 11th on the global GDP scale. They aren't world leaders.

Not more painfully, might be equal at best. You under estimate how bad the Russian economy is doing, and they were already on track to default on any loans that were outstanding. The sanctions really just weaken USD as a global currency reserve, but that's been discussed a lot. Frankly, even without war the inflation rate would have caused it to sink so the sanctions could've been independent of it's decline.

Europe's issue is with their energy policy, and the radicals there would rather implement green technology (largely inefficient) instead of looking towards other sources. Sanction Russian energy, where else do they get heat for their homes?

They've already done so. Russian reserves emptied out their USD holdings to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. Russia has also been conducting bilateral transactions with countries like China using their own currencies. It used to be that they would exchange using USD as an intermediary. Not anymore. U.S. played around with sanctions a bit too much and now they'll soon understand that USD is no longer the global reserve currency.

You're correct, they're not. And there's a reason why the government won't attempt to go after entities that provide tax havens to the rich, they don't want to upset them. Seems shocking with how much tax revenue they might be able to raise, but they'd rather target the middle class who do not have the resources to fight back.


The poor usually aren't going to have the funds to exceed the minimum 600 USD or €1,000 requirement for transaction registration. This strictly targets the middle class/upper middle class. The elites will have their off-shore banking enterprises tucked away.

Republican voters are probably dumb enough to elect him again in 2024 over other stellar candidates like Ron DeSantis or Ted Cruz, two Harvard graduates I might add. The latter candidates would have to get hit by a bus in order to lose. Trump's a loose cannon, but I'm thinking he'd still have an edge over Biden/Kamala.


Who else is going to replace Biden? Jesus Christ himself?

Probable scenario: Joe Biden steps down, Kamala is the head of the ticket, and then she picks someone like Pete Buttigieg.

I appreciate your list. Nancy Pelosi's poem, profoundly artistic and captivating in nature, still captures the West's stance on Ukraine which is stand by and watch. Five helicopters might not be much against 100k-200k Russian troops and their thousands of aircrafts and tens of thousands of armored vehicles.


Biden is correct, just as most of Europe are. They do not want to get involved. The red line NATO has set up is the usage of chemical weapons and/or tactical nukes, it would appear. The current involvement and aid the West has isn't enough for Ukraine to "win" the war IMO.


Biden is not in control and too far gone to make any of his own decisions. And that's giving him credit because his responsibility for these matters are partially forfeited. I suppose you think it is coincidental that Putin invades after a botched Afghanistan withdrawal in which Joe Biden coerced the Afghanistan President to lie about the Taliban's standing in the country, which was followed by an immediate take over resulting in the death of 13 U.S. service members. And how can we forget the botched counter-attack, which the WH initially lied and covered up until reporting by the NYT uncovered 10 innocent civilians were killed - all because Biden wanted a "tough guy" appearance in response to terrorism. Putin was watching. So was China.

I don't think this is true at all. The virtue signaling from the US and Europe can only go so far.

The West's response can be perfectly encapsulated here. Ukraine needs jets, and Poland was ready to send them if the U.S. was ready to provide military equipment to Poland in return; they chose not to. They instead got a kind poem from Nancy Pelosi, with solidarity of course. I'm sure Putin is trembling in fear.

If the West cared about Ukraine, they would not wait for innocent civilians to perish, with dead bodies laying amongst the rubble of imploded buildings. What ever spare change the U.S. and Europe can put together isn't anything meaningful. Ukraine needs military equipment. They've been provided minimal amounts from some European countries and it isn't enough.

Volatility gets better with mass adoption, though. As speculative as Bitcoin is, all other markets have some risk of crashing leaving some investors out cash. Long term Bitcoin probably outpaces gold or other precious metals for the sole reason that most other currencies are inflating too rapidly to warrant usage. Gold would have taken the place of these currencies, but not in a digital age.

It could last years, but with the reporting of the Russian army being short on resources along with Putin perhaps turning senile, this could be a short war.

It ends in three ways:

1.) Zelenskky concedes to Putin's demands (neutrality, refusal to join NATO, give up pro-Russian territories)
2.) Putin uses nuclear weapons and overtakes Ukrainian government
3.) Putin withdraws without Ukrainian defeat.

#3 is unlikely. Putin is far too invested in the war to turn around now. The Russian economy is sunk, and accepting defeat would be even more humiliating for Putin than the humiliation he currently faces with an underequipped Ukrainian army successfully countering Russian troops to the degree that we're seeing. Options #1 to me seems more likely. If Zelenskky can accept Putin's terms, perhaps both countries can walk away in one piece. But part of the demands Putin is seeking is that Ukraine cannot arm themselves militarily. If you've seen what happens to leaders when they give up their military defense systems, look no further than Gaddafi and the invasion of Libya. It isn't clear to me when Zelenskky might concede, if ever, but that portion of the deal would be something that I'm sure he's reluctant about. Nuclear weapons are a last resort, but I would not put it past Putin to use tactical nukes out of desperation.

Problem lies with most politicians not recognizing the usage of crypto currency within their economies. They don't like the idea of having a competitor to their own currency, and so of course the central banks reject these sort of proposals. Central banks and government work in tandem with one another and wouldn't allow it.

It's also probably true most politicians don't understand crypto currency, and the knee-jerk repulsion is done out of pure ignorance.

If USD decreases it's grip on the global economy, there's a good chance it's swapped out with something like Yuan. And having China's currency as the global reserve would probably be more dangerous than USD. Crypto currency would be more ideal, it remains virtually immune from sanctions (no possible way for a country to have their assets frozen) but the issue is that the global market has not adopted crypto yet, so there is little incentive for a country to use a currency that is not accepted by trading partners. I understand this could change in the future, but Russian sanctions aren't going to be the reason with USD still strong. It will be some number of years before people begin ditching USD for alternate currencies. It's eventually coming, perhaps not soon.

Russia walked this backed: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-will-not-demand-immediate-switch-gas-payments-roubles-kremlin-2022-03-30/

Their messaging is confusing and their economy is too fragile to further restrict themselves from global commerce, so you can expect something like this to not go through. It sounded like an empty threat from the start and a mere desperate attempt to avoid sanctions. Appears Russia still has India and China open to them for unrestricted trading, but they cannot reasonable expect to cut off trading from the rest of Europe and keep their economy afloat.

5% is still significant. Keep in mind this is essentially a regressive tax. Inflation hits the lower class the hardest, so if the purchasing power can't be at least maintained, it surely should not be reduced, let alone reduced by design. If the rate was kept at 2% and central banks were okay with inflating the currency at that rate in order to maintain economic activity, I'd still say crypto (bitcoin in particular) would be "safer" without regression built in by design. Bitcoin's deflationary, it could theoretically only get more valuable if the market decided that it holds value as the total potential supply gets lower. Currency is targeted at 2 percent but they don't maintain those goals year over year, at least not post-COVID.



That's fair, but my point is geared towards the idea of relative risk between a long term investor and a day-to-day trader. Day trading incurs more risk, generally speaking. That's not true for everyone, of course.

Even with volatility, investment in crypto is not a day-to-day operation. That's day trading and it's akin to gambling with built in risk incurred by the trader. Long term investing also has built in risk, but it's fairly minimal and you'd have to actually try to lose value on your assets over the long term (or make some terribly unfortunate investments). What's risky is leaving your finances in traditional currencies which have a built in mechanism of inflation, targeted at 2 percent yearly. Seeing current trends, the real numbers they're willing to admit to are easily 5%+ depending on the currency.

She's a safe bet for democrats. Conservatives are the ones that do terribly when scouting SCOTUS judges. Seems like the generic liberal judge that will reliably vote with all the other liberals on the bench. Though I'd argue: If you cannot define what a "woman" is, you probably should not serve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWtGzJxiONU

Woke gender ideology has consequences, and as it turns out, these sort of radical ideas and the erasure of sex biology will make it to the highest law of the land (it was already there, but now they just have an extra vote). How difficult would it be for Jackson to articulate that a woman is merely a biological female? For argument's sake, let's accept her premise that she isn't a biologist. But I hope that wouldn't mean that she'd need to be, say, a veterinarian to identify a dog from a horse.

Russia is now walking back their statements on demanding rubles for oil exports to countries they deem "unfriendly."

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-will-not-demand-immediate-switch-gas-payments-roubles-kremlin-2022-03-30/

Appears they understand they cannot further restrict their economy when it's already on the decline. IMO Russia understands the war is a lost cause and they have no way to circumvent the sanctions, so they have to play the game that the West wants them to play. Using China and India as trading partners can only support Russia's economy to a certain extent. Being isolated from the West has ramifications. There were also some reports that Putin's military generals are downplaying the status of the war and the severity of Russian troop losses because they don't want to be the bearer of bad news. Putin is losing control of his economy and his military.