I’m in it for the tech any way.
well, i am still in it because of the tech. ngl though the early retirement, security and toys it gave me were pretty dope somehow, my feeling is that recently retired would soon unretire, but it is just a feeling. being retired in this s-t to me makes it not worth it (to be retired), but on that the opinions may differ. Those who retired because of their BTC holdings, that are now considering "unretiring" because of the current dip are not doing it right. The way I see it, you don't quit your job and retire, until BTC price reaches 5x to 10x your retirement price point. For example, if my stash is such that $50k/BTC is enough for retirement, I would not do it before price reaches at least $250k-$500k/BTC. Call me conservative, but that's what I'd do. Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not. |
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Yeah. That's the thing bothering me. This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want... I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets. Such a catch 22. There are a significant number of Americans that now will believe the economy is being torched on purpose by the powers that be. And they might be right. Or on the other hand they can also keep going the way they have been... and torch the economy. Yes but the second torching of the economy you mention is very drawn out, and also gives time to reform the system (lol, never happen due to corruption). The first is not an option, as it will trigger the system into a deflationary spiral that it will not be able to get out of (by itself) without serious destruction to society. Exactly. And some people, if they were able to gain power, might actually purposely pull exactly that lever. There is no question the USD is being disabled via deficits. We got off gold under prez nixon around 1971 and the next 51 budgets we are 5 black 46 red last 20 budgets all red. Yes, but being that the dollar is the reserve currency the USA must run deficits. It wouldn't work otherwise. The USA actually does export a lot, it is just dollars rather than goods. |
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Question for Phil when he comes online.
How is the current mining profitablility at these levels? and when was the last time it was at these levels?
Summer's drop had a large decrease in hash rate, this one doesn't so I imagine we are back to late 2020 levels.
Have not done numbers but it is down bigly. I have sweetheart power deal that always makes money (as long as gear is working) My deal is free power and gives ½ the coins. So I do better now the host does better in the summer. He did so well he is installing the 280kwatt solar array. But we are an exception not the rule. BTC was as high as 50 cents a th at peak about 50 bucks a day for a s19 ETH was as high as 20 cents an mh at peak about 20 bucks a day for a 3080 gpu Ltc/doge was over 20 usd a gh at peak all have dropped a lot btc is around 17 cents a th a s19 burning 3400 watts is making $17.68 eth is down to 3.4 cents an mh a nvidia 3080 burning 250 watts is making $3.40 ltc/doge is down to 5 usd a gh. that would be 2 L3+ bring 1600 watts these rates are really bad and may mean true bear has started (or not) That is a pretty big fall ETH in particular. 2 more questions. Where do you think the breakeven for majority of miners is? And, if these price levels are maintained, do you think we are going to see a bunch of GPUs heading to ebay? |
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Question for Phil when he comes online.
How is the current mining profitablility at these levels? and when was the last time it was at these levels?
Summer's drop had a large decrease in hash rate, this one doesn't so I imagine we are back to late 2020 levels of profitability.
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Yeah. That's the thing bothering me. This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want... I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets. Such a catch 22. There are a significant number of Americans that now will believe the economy is being torched on purpose by the powers that be. And they might be right. Or on the other hand they can also keep going the way they have been... and torch the economy. Yes but the second torching of the economy you mention is very drawn out, and also gives time to reform the system (lol, never happen due to corruption). The first is not an option, as it will trigger the system into a deflationary spiral that it will not be able to get out of (by itself) without serious destruction to society. |
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Yeah. That's the thing bothering me. This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want... I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets. prediction: +0.5%, but nothing would be broken..it's "getting priced in" What I mean is break in the short-term, as in market will collapse. It's not the rate move that matters now, as you say they are priced in. It's what their tone is that matters. If they maintain a strong hawkish tone, that is what will not go down well. If they change to a dovish tone, market will rally in a big way. If they don't go dovish this time, they will next time, as the mistake will be very apparent. |
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Yeah. That's the thing bothering me. This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want... I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets. |
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Damn...I like how many start having these bearish 10k 9k Vegeta thoughts...
I'm likely to start drinking again if we do the whole Vegeta thing again. I am SO ABSOLUTELY over it. Indeed. I had goosebumps just hearing about Vegeta again. At 9k, almost no miner would be profitable (at the current difficulty level). In addition, every other asset in the world would have collapsed to a massive degree and we would probably be worrying about other issues such as global war. |
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I do find this interesting. In December when the price was going down I saw coins on exchange were increasing 60k or so. I gained the courage to check now and to my surprise it was actually down. Maybe it doesn't mean much, but there it is anyway.  Also see below for some bottom hopium  Probably just to short the market, lol. |
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I'm out of here for a bit, let's hope things improve from here, 38k would be nice.
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$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.
usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.
Which it very well may, but I think it won't be down at these levels for as long as it was in the summer. Various indicators are starting to signal a policy error by the Fed, it won't be long before they start to reverse the jawboning. If the past is any indicator, I think the Fed will do one superficial rate hike, likely 25 bp or so. The stonk market is already pricing this in. Of course, the market will scary dip again on the news and the MSM will panic, and then the market will recover somewhat. The Fed will be mum after that, but completely pause on any further rate hikes when they come due this year. As they always do. This is a game that they play for the public, and you can almost set your watch to it. Make no mistake though, the stonk market will be UP by the end of the year. It cannot afford NOT to be, and the Fed knows this. We haven't seen a down year in over a decade. Yep, the market can't stay down as it backs up too much debt. Debt can't decrease, because if it does the monetary supply shrinks, then we get deflation. If deflation, then debt becomes a massive burden and causes destruction of more debt, through bankruptcies and paying down of debt, further decreasing the money supply. And if that happens the Great Depression will look like a walk in the park. The Fed knows this, and the whole point of this system is to avoid that very situation. The money supply must continue to expand (money can only be created via newly issued debt) and if the economy can't do that by itself, the Fed will help out. End of story. Edit: In addition to all that, I know we don't like inflation here because it robs the income earners. But deflation isn't good either, in the later 1800s the gold standard was acting as a deflationary force during the highly expanding economy at the time. Deflationary money supply was punishing those who had debt, and a lot of those people back then were the farmers and working rural folk. The populist politcal movement was born of these times, and they strongly wanted something more inflationary. My point is the Fed knows this, they know what deflation means to the debt holders (everyone these days) so they won't let it happen. To do so, with so much discontent right now, would seriously threaten the modern structure of our society and government. |
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$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.
usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.
Which it very well may, but I think it won't be down at these levels for as long as it was in the summer. Various indicators are starting to signal a policy error by the Fed, it won't be long before they start to reverse the jawboning. of the newly freed up fiat i spent 75% on a market buy at ~35.3k USD and with the rest i laddered a bit lower. depending on where honey badger wanders off to ill revisit that. if honey badger decides to head south for the winter ill move assets around to free up more fiat for btc if needed. It's a good plan. I was going to finish up work this year, but have just applied for a full time position (1 year contract, not McDonalds) that I am a shoe-in to get. If this is a bit of a drawn out bear market I'm going to DCA the shit out of it with at least 50% of my take home pay, I don't want to miss out. During the last bear I was able to increase my holdings by 25%, I won't be able to beat that but I'd be happy with 5%. Every little bit counts. |
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$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.
usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.
Which it very well may, but I think it won't be down at these levels for as long as it was in the summer. Various indicators are starting to signal a policy error by the Fed, it won't be long before they start to reverse the jawboning. |
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This dip is part of a wider collapse in the stock market as a result of cold feet after people started thinking the Fed Reserve is going to raise interest rates this year to curb the rampaging (LOL) inflation. What worries interests (pun intended) me much more is that this is only the beginning. Imagine what happens to the stock market if the interest goes back to normal values! I hear that things became 7% more expensive last year than they were in 2020. Now how's this looking if you measure in Bitcoin? I count almost 50% inflation in 2 months, didn't people get the memo fiat is at risk of inflation, not Bitcoin? This is the best tweet I saw in a while, and beautifully explain the correlation between FIAT and bitcoin:  Incidentally, this is the reason I invested in bitcoin a while ago. And it's the reason why I'm never selling. |
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A small pathetic bounce, GTFO. I didn't think we did that anymore.
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"Hedge against inflation", "Muh institutions" while the shitcoin can't even trade at 2x over the previous all time high of fucking 2017 lol (reminder that we are in 2022)
Correction: If you count in the inflation from 2017-2022, you'll realize that this shitcoin is way closer to the $20k top from 2017 with the current price The ones that invested long-term in BTC at the run to $20k in 2017 are barely in profit right now. Digital asset that performed like absolute dogshit (and not talking about the dogshits that outperformed it by 1000x) What about those who invested when it was in the 3000s after the fall from 2017. What's their profit? Or maybe those who DCA in the last 4 years? https://dcabtc.com?sd=2018-01-22&sda=4_years&f=weekly&d=4_years&ac=1000&c=falseShitty returns those ones right? Bitcoin is fucking ded people, it's ded. |
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I cancelled 1 order that was for 2504. It was the easiest one to cancel .
so I now have 2504-400 = 2104 to buy coin with.
I grabbed $400 already and my $50 dca is in place.
I hope it pays off well for you. |
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YEAH I may go for $200 more in a few minutes as I will be off line for 2 days in terms of buying ability.
Do that or set a few buy orders perhaps Yeah I could , but I have the daily $50 dca set. I can fund that the whole year with no issues. I need to study all my gear commitments to figure out if I want to cancel them. I think I have an over commitment to future gear. But that much of it can be cancelled. 600 + 900 + 1700 = 3200 easy to cancel ..............................2504 easy to cancel 5704 all easy peasy cancels I could return 2504+2504+4500 = 9508 they would be hard to return but that could be done. So I can free over 15k in about a week. The advantage of staggered orders of gpus from legit sellers. I will do the easy cancels ie 5704 = cancelled. the more difficult ones I will wait. Also need to check my silver holdings. just checked so far it is flat Do you mean cancel those orders and just buy the BTC instead? |
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