Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitebits]

All that is missing is a little sprinkle of EmptyGox news, now really soon perhaps maybe returning corn to their legitimate owners. Soon I guess.

[1715643177]

1715643177

[somac.]

A small pathetic bounce, GTFO. I didn't think we did that anymore.

[somac.]

This dip is part of a wider collapse in the stock market as a result of cold feet after people started thinking the Fed Reserve is going to raise interest rates this year to curb the rampaging (LOL) inflation.

What worries interests (pun intended) me much more is that this is only the beginning. Imagine what happens to the stock market if the interest goes back to normal values!

I hear that things became 7% more expensive last year than they were in 2020.

Now how's this looking if you measure in Bitcoin? I count almost 50% inflation in 2 months, didn't people get the memo fiat is at risk of inflation, not Bitcoin?

This is the best tweet  I saw in a while, and beautifully explain the correlation between FIAT and bitcoin:




Incidentally, this is the reason I invested in bitcoin a while ago.

And it's the reason why I'm never selling.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[strawbs]

Expect price reversal from $31k.

Weekly RSI it is not yet at 2020 Covid crash level, it is possible.

This dip is part of a wider collapse in the stock market as a result of cold feet after people started thinking the Fed Reserve is going to raise interest rates this year to curb the rampaging (LOL) inflation.

I hear that things became 7% more expensive last year than they were in 2020.

Exactly this. Stocks, especially tech, are all massively down and the BTC price is simply an exaggerated reflection of this - due to selling by those who don't understand that BTC is, amongst other things, a hedge against the failings of the current monetary system (especially with regard to supply and inflation).

For these reasons, there's no need to panic, unless you're over-leveraged or have very short-term aspirations. If you're holding BTC for the right reasons, you're timelines will be long-term and four years from now this dip will have been utterly forgotten.

[vapourminer]

$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.

usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.

[somac.]

$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.

usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.

Which it very well may, but I think it won't be down at these levels for as long as it was in the summer. Various indicators are starting to signal a policy error by the Fed, it won't be long before they start to reverse the jawboning.

[vapourminer]

$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.

usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.

Which it very well may, but I think it won't be down at these levels for as long as it was in the summer. Various indicators are starting to signal a policy error by the Fed, it won't be long before they start to reverse the jawboning.

of the newly freed up fiat i spent 75% on a market buy at ~35.3k USD and with the rest i laddered a bit lower. depending on where honey badger wanders off to ill revisit that. if honey badger decides to head south for the winter ill move assets around to free up more fiat for btc if needed.

[cygan]

everything looks according to plan

[somac.]

$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.

usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.

Which it very well may, but I think it won't be down at these levels for as long as it was in the summer. Various indicators are starting to signal a policy error by the Fed, it won't be long before they start to reverse the jawboning.

of the newly freed up fiat i spent 75% on a market buy at ~35.3k USD and with the rest i laddered a bit lower. depending on where honey badger wanders off to ill revisit that. if honey badger decides to head south for the winter ill move assets around to free up more fiat for btc if needed.

It's a good plan. I was going to finish up work this year, but have just applied for a full time position (1 year contract, not McDonalds) that I am a shoe-in to get. If this is a bit of a drawn out bear market I'm going to DCA the shit out of it with at least 50% of my take home pay, I don't want to miss out. During the last bear I was able to increase my holdings by 25%, I won't be able to beat that but I'd be happy with 5%. Every little bit counts.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

Now I’m waiting for $32k, is it too much to ask?


https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1484636865374347266?s=21

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Not looking good boys but it is what it is. This is frustrating but it’s only delaying the inevitable. We are going to $150,000+ but I thought it’d be this year. Maybe we are entering a multi year bear market, maybe we’re not. I’m sorted either way now after selling 25% between $53,800 & $65,000. Would be lovely if we rocket to $150,000+ but try to make it work for you whichever way we go. If we go to around $27,000 then buy with both hands.

We are going to $150,000+ by the end of 2025 at the latest.

We are going to $400,000+ this decade.

[heslo]

I feel confident that this was the bottom of this dip. Feel free to quote me if I'm wrong :p

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.

usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.

Which it very well may, but I think it won't be down at these levels for as long as it was in the summer. Various indicators are starting to signal a policy error by the Fed, it won't be long before they start to reverse the jawboning.

If the past is any indicator, I think the Fed will do one superficial rate hike, likely 25 bp or so. The stonk market is already pricing this in.

Of course, the market will scary dip again on the news and the MSM will panic, and then the market will recover somewhat. The Fed will be mum after that, but completely pause on any further rate hikes when they come due this year. As they always do. This is a game that they play for the public, and you can almost set your watch to it.

Make no mistake though, the stonk market will be UP by the end of the year. It cannot afford NOT to be, and the Fed knows this. We haven't seen a down year in the stonk market in over a decade.

[CistaCista]

All that is missing is a little sprinkle of EmptyGox news, now really soon perhaps maybe returning corn to their legitimate owners. Soon I guess.

Ah the memories. Made me reread a bit - can you imagine as much as 900,000 Bitcoins were "stolen" from MtGox, an asset value of 50 BN USD at latest peak price.

[somac.]

$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.

usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.

Which it very well may, but I think it won't be down at these levels for as long as it was in the summer. Various indicators are starting to signal a policy error by the Fed, it won't be long before they start to reverse the jawboning.

If the past is any indicator, I think the Fed will do one superficial rate hike, likely 25 bp or so. The stonk market is already pricing this in.

Of course, the market will scary dip again on the news and the MSM will panic, and then the market will recover somewhat. The Fed will be mum after that, but completely pause on any further rate hikes when they come due this year. As they always do. This is a game that they play for the public, and you can almost set your watch to it.

Make no mistake though, the stonk market will be UP by the end of the year. It cannot afford NOT to be, and the Fed knows this. We haven't seen a down year in over a decade.

Yep, the market can't stay down as it backs up too much debt. Debt can't decrease, because if it does the monetary supply shrinks, then we get deflation. If deflation, then debt becomes a massive burden and causes destruction of more debt, through bankruptcies and paying down of debt, further decreasing the money supply. And if that happens the Great Depression will look like a walk in the park. The Fed knows this, and the whole point of this system is to avoid that very situation.

The money supply must continue to expand (money can only be created via newly issued debt) and if the economy can't do that by itself, the Fed will help out. End of story.

Edit: In addition to all that, I know we don't like inflation here because it robs the income earners. But deflation isn't good either, in the later 1800s the gold standard was acting as a deflationary force during the highly expanding economy at the time. Deflationary money supply was punishing those who had debt, and a lot of those people back then were the farmers and working rural folk. The populist politcal movement was born of these times, and they strongly wanted something more inflationary. My point is the Fed knows this, they know what deflation means to the debt holders (everyone these days) so they won't let it happen. To do so, with so much discontent right now, would seriously threaten the modern structure of our society and government.

[Torque]

$35(ish) k USD. now theres a dip i can get behind.

usually my buys are pretty well set up in advance (ladders, dca) with a small amount of "impulse" buys or sells here and there. but this? NICE! i shuffled some stuff around to free up some fiat and bought a good chunk o cheap corn. and still have some stuff i can dump for more btc if the dip keeps going.

Which it very well may, but I think it won't be down at these levels for as long as it was in the summer. Various indicators are starting to signal a policy error by the Fed, it won't be long before they start to reverse the jawboning.

If the past is any indicator, I think the Fed will do one superficial rate hike, likely 25 bp or so. The stonk market is already pricing this in.

Of course, the market will scary dip again on the news and the MSM will panic, and then the market will recover somewhat. The Fed will be mum after that, but completely pause on any further rate hikes when they come due this year. As they always do. This is a game that they play for the public, and you can almost set your watch to it.

Make no mistake though, the stonk market will be UP by the end of the year. It cannot afford NOT to be, and the Fed knows this. We haven't seen a down year in over a decade.

Yep, the market can't stay down as it backs up too much debt. Debt can't decrease, because if it does the monetary supply shrinks, then we get deflation. If deflation, then debt becomes a massive burden and causes destruction of more debt, through bankruptcies and paying down of debt, further decreasing the money supply. And if that happens the Great Depression will look like a walk in the park. The Fed knows this, and the whole point of this system is to avoid that very situation.

The money supply must continue to expand (money can only be created via newly issued debt) and if the economy can't do that by itself, the Fed will help out. End of story.

Exactly.

One other thing I left out of my post, is that when war breaks out in the Ukraine, the stonk market will dip again. The Fed will also use this as an excuse to pause further rate hikes.

[somac.]

I'm out of here for a bit, let's hope things improve from here, 38k would be nice.