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461  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the bull run begun ? on: February 12, 2024, 05:47:15 PM
Breakout action occurring right now, the question in play should surround watching the daily candle close and ideally this weekly candle for best security.  If BTC does not hold up as well on a weekly candle trading below this current price, closing below 49.3k then be slightly less optimistic otherwise BTC price action is presently very bullish.
  The target upside now is 57.9k, for a trade moving fast is ideal but for long term its actually better to pause along the way and remove sellers before they can accumulate and cause a large negative.  A bull run doesnt have to be stampede and you dont want the confusion with a buffalo run which is a blind run right over a cliff a practice carried out by the native Americans to slaughter the yearly growth.   Any holder doesnt want that, they want a slow and steady bull run with no casualties so it can spread over multiple years and get the higher figures.  Dont forget summer 2019 where price spiked and later halved, that wasnt for the best vs longer term gains.
462  Economy / Economics / Re: What did elon do wrong in Twitter on: February 12, 2024, 05:03:43 PM
 
Quote
Writing in 140 characters wasn't a genius idea.

Ironically less is more, that was its strength somehow and it is surprising I agree.    With technology I think we all know it can be too much, is the amount and quantity of emails you get daily really a positive.  It quickly becomes too much to handle and ignored, just spam rubbish you never actually pay attention.  The reason is clear, your attention and time is money its effort and you only have a limited supply in a day.  In this context it explains why the limit to twitter communications initially and even now is valuable.
  Can Elon Musk build on the central ideas that made Twitter something valued as a new product, I think in part he has added something.  I personally like the community notes idea of misinformation being guided and source linked by the community in response not just one way broadcasting an opinion undisputed.    I dont agree taking away the bird symbol was a positive but I never rate just brand label as the most important thing, but I preferred it personally.
  Practically if he can keep adding functionality then it should be a positive experience, both for users and even his quite over inflated investment.     For profit I can see it taking him 10 years to sign off as a positive, I hope he really wanted to buy it because he is stuck with it now.
463  Economy / Speculation / Re: Best time to buy BTC NOW? on: February 12, 2024, 04:16:49 PM
Im too wussy to say yes to this question because it seems high risk to me.    In terms of hype, trading momentum and a positive atmosphere then yes now is a good place Im looking at the chart and its a definitely a possible breakout which can lead to fast gains.    Fast up very often means fast down also, so its not an easy game.    You can play it as a trade, I'd equate it to riding logs down river to deliver them; efficient fast and very dangerous but some like these ideas.  I'm more the type to advise buying in low prices as much nicer bigger gains but possibly taking years.
464  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How my gambling life started. on: February 12, 2024, 03:42:52 PM
We used to play card games in school even primary school we played cards but not for money.  Thats a common path to gambling later for money not just winning the game, I think thats a perfectly ok way to progress and not a negative as practice makes perfect.  Always know the game well before betting on it further.  Another path more common now is gambling via online video games, they commonly include gambling now in one way or another and one of my most common ways to bet is on the outcome of online matches done in various electronic games not just traditional sports.  I think that will increasingly be a way gambling progresses and there has be alot of sponsorship for development of that sector, thats made it a good place to bet also.
465  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you think women will make better gamblers by their nature? on: February 12, 2024, 08:33:52 AM
One of the best poker players I know is a women so by that verdict its very possible women have advantages they can put to work in the competitive game.  Depends on the bet, depend on the game probably.  The one place I would say more possible then other probabilities is the money management side of things.  Men generally will take more risks then they are required to in order to win, by their character men tend to have a psyche that reinforces and rewards this behavior.   Of course we are still talking generally here in an approximate way but overall I'd say the money management of knowing when to take some off the table comes with a more cautious attitude & will be rewarded with a better track record and thats true because everyone will lose some so dont lose your winnings is job number one.
466  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling mistake repeated by the gamblers on: February 12, 2024, 12:30:32 AM
The common point in both these mistakes is irrational exuberance, a natural feature of betting if you forget you can lose and get ahead of yourself you will trip up.   Never abandon your plan whether you win or lose, fortunes can turn and being greedy just means you give it back with your winnings if you keep spending them all on the bets.    I like the percentage approach but not many of us will just a more arbitrary rule in the moment, quit while you are ahead is a good rule regardless of your recent success if you are ahead it was a good day take the win and go get something to eat and drink off the game.    Continuing to play no matter what after your planned amount of hours is definitely a mistake I recognize and would try to avoid, same with tiredness, later night or drinking keep it sensible.
467  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Risking 1% in Gambling on: February 11, 2024, 11:59:56 PM
1% is sensible because you will notice if on a losing streak and have time to stop.   I totally agree with the slow and steady approach over rushing to bet all in an instance.  The ultimate alternative to this is to bet everything you own on Red, on the spin of a roulette wheel just bet everything which is an idea I saw played out in a TV show once.   I dont recommend that of course, you have less then 50/50 odds and have to handle the prospect of losing everything in a second; the reasoning for that option is that you put all consideration into just one bet and dont overthink things like people might do over the course of a day with multiple bets.
   The guy who bet all on a roulette wheel spin had like 6 episodes of a tv series and got paid for that before betting, imo he couldn't lose at that point just from the advertising and sponsorship.  He would be famous and could get fees for appearance and interviews, stories in future so fake it till you make is basically that story.   The more boring route rest of us take should probably be slow and steady 1% is smart as you can alter course and improve your bet strategy etc.

Tv series made by Simon Cowell some years later:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_or_Black%3F

5.3m views on this bet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCdBsOIKYA
https://edition.cnn.com/2004/SHOWBIZ/TV/04/12/roulette.win/
468  Economy / Speculation / Re: Going against the grain. on: February 11, 2024, 11:52:49 PM
Go against the grain and you will get splinters.  Be careful of fighting large amounts of momentum possible in BTC, it can be surprising how high we go.   I say that as someone who had shorts on as a hedge for a long time, it worked till we swung up massively.   You have to be ready to let go in this trade and shorting is probably the harder of the trades vs just going long in an asset which has gained very often over years.     Bad timing to guess a pullback imo.
   The pattern to look for is higher high and higher lows, if thats true even during a pullback we are just setting up for the next push higher.   You will be fighting the tide and losing ground, of course you can trade within and gain, its harder to do but people will achieve profits negatively even while we gain with BTC in larger time frames.
  I would mostly guess this year 2024 is a positive year but I agree on the general idea too many people are hoping for higher not ready for the negatives surely must be true also in a volatile asset like BTC.
469  Economy / Economics / Re: Will the world soon become tired of the US dollar? on: February 11, 2024, 11:43:35 PM
Its been a long time coming is what we can say for sure, I can bring up a video of France's leader post WW2 complaining about the amounts of excessive spending by USA in its space program vs USSR and how they would only take gold in great doubt at the long term value of Dollar.    That leader was proved right to a large extent as dollar notes have declined greatly yet Dollar is king still and backer of the global reserve system used by most nations central banks.
Quote
BRICS now controls almost 28% of a global economy

Control is a strong word in a free market economy.  The production by many countries is vital to the success of others but theres always some other nation who wants that business also.  Vietnam for example can undercut China production cost apparently, though cost is only one factor.  China has a falling working population which naturally forces up costs, India has great growth for some time in the future but the ability to harness that potential is an open question still.   Its never straightforward.
470  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Know when to stop on: February 11, 2024, 11:34:29 PM
I would not rely on myself to stop in the middle of gambling exactly, just keep to a regularly daily limit and you will know when you should stop.   Either set a hourly limit which I wouldnt do personally as that can vary too much by how much you stop or start during the day but if you have a daily bet allowance you will know when its time to just pack up and come back tomorrow.
   Sometimes its better to stop and come back then carry on, you may be altered in your betting by tiredness, too emotional or drunk even can mean you are just throwing money away at that point.  Sticking to a limit is a discipline but its worth doing for the long term prospects and gambling outcome.  No plan at all imo is dangerous and can lead to a waste when the game plays you instead.
471  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: February 11, 2024, 11:22:39 PM
But if they are not able to break above $49k it means the price will fall in the future until the halving occurs,

I agree on the pullback, 49k as a local top would be normal but I disagree on the duration of that pullback or the extent to its depth.  It would be normal to pullback and we expect to see that.  49k is 61.8% of the ATH just like 43.2k was a 50% of the ATH to low, for it to be a fault line and natural sell is normal and ok.   If we had not surpassed the last high this year of about 48k then I'd agree, thats a sign of weakness but the pattern to look for predicting the direction of the tide is higher lows and higher highs.  So we just got a higher high and we should be more positive in that context, even if we try to predict end of Feb month I would not expect too low now.    I was someone in Jan who predicted a low as possible but it was tried and failed, we resolved higher we can only estimate and observe the strength or weakness.  BTC is doing ok now even if or when we get the profit taking.
472  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Have you ever introduced an elder gambler to online betting? on: February 11, 2024, 09:08:41 AM
Gaming yes but gambling for cash no as you say people are traditional but also superstitious when it comes to gambling especially where as a normal game has no real downside to trying it besides the normal effort to learn the rules and usage of the interface which is enough discouragement to put off many.    The one way to really appeal to someone would be via the value route perhaps if it were a better return to bet online then maybe that would then appeal but most of the time its the same company on and off line in most cases.  Crypto would be an added layer and thats unfortunately alot of effort old people arent bothering with at present, there will be some but in the majority I think BTC and other crypto has alot of potential to grow still depending on becoming increasingly easy to use.
473  Economy / Economics / Re: In times of Crisis and uncertanities toilet paper can be new currency on: February 11, 2024, 08:48:57 AM
This could only be a statement on a reflection of what modern currency has become.   Theres no reasonable justification to any basic form of paper really (ironic but a dollar is cotton apparently), where is the limited supply.   We've been using forms of paper since peeling off the barks of trees, a currency relies on some element of limited supply and so value to its unit which usually has to be fungible.   Of course you can keep anything as a kind of value cache for the short term I wont argue against that though cans of food might work better but longer term it takes alot more then that.   Hate to add this also but ultimately we dont absolutely need this product, there are alternatives on both sides both supply and  demand so we're talking nothing more then a meme here no actual standing.
474  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin Bear Market over? on: February 10, 2024, 10:43:29 PM
Bears dont die, they hibernate never say never Tongue     We aren't going down in any regular way thats why its very easy to say we are not near to any bear market and that's important.  As soon as you can observe a regular rise in any measure or part of the market then do switch your optimism to positive or you will miss the opportunity.  Ditto be on guard for negative action and dont cling on too long thinking it can turn around once its regularly negative then you have to also be realistic to prospects.    This is trading rather then hold etc.
475  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: February 10, 2024, 09:26:47 PM
Fun is a very risky coin to hold and hold.

Its not too risky if you are using it everyday in some capacity which every long term member would be.   As far as development there has been new websites that use FUN but they are separate to the main site, I think they advertised on the main site.
There is going to be a two tone view to performance because so far as I read the token itself is deflationary (a good thing vs inflationary etc.), ie. the base currency is rising in its unit worth and every burn of the token is doing that deliberately.   I wont go into it too much but its relatable to many types of assets you could buy, however what is quite normal is the market price is different to that base worth.   I think the profits they refer to is the site itself in normal operations, so you get your free wheel spins and that payout is random but also direct immediate and visible to you but also they are burning tokens which does in turn help your base case to hold FUN its a good thing basically however its indirect and more long term not immediate.  
   Theres the utility and kind of yield you can get to FUN, it gives benefits so that is a worth.  The base amount of units of FUN is a capital worth but most visible but arguably least important is the worth markets attribute as a labelled price, always the market can do whatever it likes separate to other views.  A free market has to serve the hourly supply and demand for the token and various amounts of liquidity.   If everyone buys and holds its going up, if everyone sells the price to excess supply in market vs demand will go down and all that is normal.  We could be talking oranges instead and the price of that and it'd be the same deal; it doesn't mean you aren't just good to use the orange, hopefully you get what I mean its not a linear flat consideration.
476  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Selling a property to play gamble on: February 09, 2024, 11:58:46 PM
Bad idea unless you have free rent, you are selling something you need to buy something of no specific requirement to yourself.   You know its bad from beforehand when you dont even require to take the risk and there is no option not to require a property.   Doesnt make sense in that context, I have heard of people selling either a house that was spare and inherited or the family that sold a house to travel in a mobile home and they both bough BTC with the proceeds.   Just buying BTC for them was a gamble but at least they did not sell something they would require the next day.
477  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Blue card to be introduced in football. on: February 09, 2024, 09:53:24 PM
Rough criticism would be it represents an Americanization of the game with sinbin type send offs that only count for a minute and then all is forgiven.   However that wouldnt deter the change especially I feel they are trying to capture that audience which is already watching sports with this type of send off and make the whole big card send off less of a permanent thing and with more warnings before players are excluded from future games.
  The teams themselves probably would appreciate this kind of forewarning to a full send off because of the giant sums involved now with some players costing giant amounts exclusion from the game can seriously impact the layout through rash behavior.  My guess is they are going to go ahead with this, perhaps rescind later if no improvement but theres reasons its going in.
478  Economy / Speculation / Re: What to expect this bull run? on: February 09, 2024, 03:00:13 PM
Some would argue its not fully bullish while we are just recovering the prior prices lost in 2022 and that ATH.   Its a good recovery, bullish relative to the lows we saw but still some people are sellers having held BTC and seen no gains as it fell then recovered.     Its all about momentum to me, so long as that stays intact then be optimistic overall even during a pullback so watch 200 day average mostly.
479  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: February 08, 2024, 11:59:35 PM
More then a year after OP the AI theme is still alive and strong, even possibly growing stronger by the day.  I still dont know if this is absolutely possible but the chances or probability of attempts to win by betting via AI and/or with assistance are surely greater every day.    AI seems to be not just pure hype or driven by hope but an actual development ongoing maybe humble at start but in estimation progressively a powerful tool in multiple sectors; I want to come back in a year and see even more progress lets hope so.   Then only then do we have to really worry about the rules, its too good so now we have to limit it?  We should be so lucky  Grin
480  Economy / Economics / Re: Save while young better than wait on: February 08, 2024, 11:50:02 PM
The main reason is compounding, if you can invest when young the actual amounts required are far less then the last minute contributions to something like a pension.   Same deal for savings towards a house mortgage or similar, the compounding on that debt is considerable.  If you do nothing but the minimum you will be very profitable for the bank buying not just one house but a second in effect for the bank who add this capital to their reserves for the cost and profits on lending to you.   If you can save and avoid this cost it will save you gigantic amounts that make you far richer when out of your twenties and free of this debt others have to repay still.
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