I'm not sure if the dev is aware of LIR - its planned to release in December and gathering big momentum/hype in the community. There might be a risk to lose a lot of customers if SD stays unstable and the project delivers what they are promising (and doesn't turn out to be a scam). Prolonged stability followed by a sig campaign would help cement SD reduce any risk. Stability has been a bit better the last few days, so lets hope they can keep it up =)
LIR is a good idea. Rubies is similar to LIR but i feel that it is too limited and most of the rubies are being under control of betterbets. There is why when i heard of rubies being added to moneypot, i am not too excited. However, for LIR, i think so far it is having a good start. I think once the site start to open to the public, we can even a strong growth in LIR and this can be a good alt coin to be use as gambling currency. Will be interesting to see what happens. I've invested into LIR but didn't touch Rubies. I still see LIR as a bigger risk than SD, but also better rewards if it pays off. So keeping invested into both platforms, there is certainly space for both to do well. a good opportunity to spread the risk on investment. Would never withdraw what I have invested in SD. looking at LIR more as a supplement. I think SatoshiDice will stick to just Bitcoin. That is what I'd do. |
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From the houses perspective: Get the expected value of the bet, divide by the most amount of money you can make from that bet (the lose outcome from the player perspective). Then multiply that by your bankroll, and that is the most amount of money you should risk.
(  / playerBet) * houseBR Okay, so it comes to EV / Max bet * Your bankroll = Max amount you should risk Can someone provide an example? |
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Your explanation is right, but numbers are wrong. The EV is indeed the expected profit, but a player wouldn't have an expected profit of 0.99 BTC, but rather an expected profit of -0.01. And from the houses perspective, they have an expected profit of 0.01 btc for each one of these bets.
So EV = expected profit? I mostly understand your post, except for that part, since I always thought that EV = Expected Value. I think that the player's expect value of 0.99 BTC is correct though, but you used expected profit which confused me. The reason I said the EV was 0.99 BTC was because of what I see on moneypot:  I understand why there is that confusion. (I am sure you understand the logic. Just the terms are confusing.) You are betting 1 BTC, and your expected return for the bet after making the bet is 0.99 BTC. The expected value of making the bet is -0.01 BTC. The bet is worth -0.01 BTC to you and 0.01 BTC to the house. So for every 1 BTC bet you make, the player loses 0.01 and the house wins 0.01. Theoretically. While calculating the Expected value of the bet, we cannot ignore the risked amount. |
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What if he is only trolling us? I know he already sent 30 btc to be more credible (10 to a burn btc address) the remaining to some users- and 2 bitcointalk.org mods
Could be.  He sure is enjoying it.  We are apparently discussing the logical motive behind the giveaway. If I had 1000 BTC to giveaway, this is not what I would do. This makes it very likely that there is a different motive behind it. There are many possibilities, which only makes it appear more convincing. so it becomes next to impossible to spot his alt...
Once the prize is sent, we'd know who the alt is. (what was I thinking when I posted that?!) What I meant is, you know the difference if the thread gets only 1 reply versus the thread gets 10000 replies. As well as the fewer replies, the less convincing it is. The membership of this forum probably rose 25% in the last 16 hours that this giveaway has started.
 Edit: lol just noticed the 'probably' |
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we can expect a lot of puppet and alts participating, same even if he randomly select an address.
He didn't claim any participation restrictions but who says he won't filter it out. Not having such a restriction is necessary for him to get more participants in the thread so it becomes next to impossible to spot his alt as well as gives him the ability to claim the prize with a low rank account / makes it appear more legit if he claims the prize with a high rank account. This is also why he won't be splitting the prize among more than one winner. His e-mail on slack is: ethereumdefense@yandex.comSo the plot thickens.. Is this hacker an Ethereum Maximalist trying to destroy Bitcoin? Let me guess, next thing the Ethereum Maximalists are going to hard fork Bitcoin with all hacks/thieves addresses blacklisted and pump all their ETH into BBTC (Bailout-Bitcoin) to pump the price and hurt the Bitcoin price?! Damn Ethereum Maximalists. That looks possible. LOL |
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This should be in the Altcoin boards.
The chances of someone earning a good amount over there is however very low.
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I have listen from some guys that 999dice is scam.what do you guys think? Give your options .
999dice is scam because the provably fair system on the site is designed to fool the players. Unless you verify each and every roll you make, the rolls can quite easily be rigged and are rigged for bets with a good amount. |
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That is just to make his intentions appear legit. In relative terms, that is 1%.
I agree. We'll know in a week. We won't. How many guys who posted in the thread do we know? CHECK HOW MUCH FEE HE GAVE IN THIS TRANSACTION. THIS GUYS IS FUCKING CRAZY WTF
No, I don't think he is. |
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I don't think that is TF, but we cannot rule out the possibility. Fact is, he did give some people 1 BTC (or more), and he did throw away 10 BTC with a 1.9887 BTC free. That shows to me he doesn't care about money worth a mid-range family car. That is just to make his intentions appear not illegit. In relative terms, that is 1%. |
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1) The coins come from a 2013 address, not linked at all with Bitfinex. SOURCE2) That address is very probably linked with the inputs.io scam/hack. SOURCE3) The person who declared the giveaway will post an address himself and send the money to that address 4) He will then be able to claim he got the money from a giveaway and not from hacking/scamming EDIT: in case it's not clear I'm speculating on what's happening in this post. Yeah, that is precisely what I have been thinking. The OP of the thread possess Bitcoins from a questionable source (hacked, private keys bought from a hacker whatever). This is why: (obviously) The giveaway is available even to a newbie, and no reasonable restrictions whatsoever, and The giveaway is 1 x 1000. All he needs to create is 1 account. How did you link it with inputs.io hack? |
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I don't know if u are the hacker or not.I think u did a good job.Keep it up! Users and exchange need to learn some lesson.
358rM8auzbH6HE6yYFWvHd6SwyXNh5XfHK
and I guess that address belongs to an exchange. No? |
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Wow! How did he manage to have that huge amount ? From gambling? Or own pocket?
reverse my name Darn! Seriously?! I was going to post "So you are the guy who hacked Bitfinex  ". LOL. May be Mtgox then. Here goes my address: 1HAMUS1fKhJsGNRd8sEoxG1BvUPjkSRXwW |
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Wow! How did he manage to have that huge amount ? From gambling? Or own pocket?
reverse my name Darn! Seriously?! I was going to post "So you are the guy who hacked Bitfinex ". |
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Dragonfish  777 |
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Beginner's luck does not mean beginners have an advantage in (pure luck) gambling. It is just a term used to describe the event when novices outperform experts.
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5) Social Dice mini jackpots have been hitting often, I think that's the 6th one now for 0.3 Bitcoin each time. The Major jackpot is over 10 Bitcoin making it +EV for small bets Good luck I have a couple of questions on Social dice. The minimum bet is 100 satoshis or 1 satoshi? If two players bet on Social dice and hit the 10 BTC jackpot, will they win 10 BTC each or 5 BTC each? |
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Right! I considered no deposit again, but at this support / disbursement. I will this casino shun, whether they pay or not. I found another casinos with instant payout! I wanted only warn you, if not even 0.3 are paid btc, then what awaits you at 2 btc or 5 btc  edit: and the support was a joke 24/7 hahahaha you see on my pictures, no answer 2 days ... but he have 24/7 support ... biggest joke ever Yes, they are right on top of the casino-with-the-most-delayed-withdrawal leaderboard.  The casino claims instant withdrawal but doesn't offer one while others don't claim instant withdrawals but offer it. The irony.. I suggest you wait 5 more days without touching your balance or playing whatever (I got the feeling if the balance changes it takes longer). |
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Username : ndnhc 1. I have to solve captcha to login 2. I unlock the Star Achievement everyday. 3. I like the moving slider-with-arrows-thingy (when animations are off. When it is on, it pauses at random places and then mistake it for the result.) 4. Not that easy to Log out anymore with a single click. 5. There is still a Change the language option with just English. 6. Faster rolls. 7. Neat interface 8 Good new privacy features. Love the new PD4 (as well as PD3 ) |
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Nice promo The post should be edited so that the text is aligned well.
Agree. It is a bug on SMF. Sent OP a PM with corrected bbcode. |
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