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1041
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Economy / Gambling / Re: Moneypot just took a huge loss?
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on: February 03, 2016, 07:25:55 PM
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Can someone summarize why the bet went through? Was the bet supposed to go through?
The bet went through because the site was using the Kelly criterion to decide how much of its bankroll to risk. The Kelly criterion tells it to risk 35.3% of its bankroll when playing the 'red' line (with 121x max payout). People are familiar with dice site style betting, where there are only two outcomes (win/lose). In that case Kelly tells us that the percentage of the bankroll to risk is the same as the percentage house edge. It's quite different for plinko games where there are a range of outcomes. In that case Kelly tells us to risk more than (house edge)% of the bankroll. See my most recent two charts. Risking 35% hits the peak of those charts. Risking only 1% gets you far lower expected log growth. Thanks for clearing it up.  Makes perfect sense now. |
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1042
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Economy / Gambling / Re: Moneypot just took a huge loss?
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on: February 03, 2016, 06:31:52 PM
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In a case where a player's bankroll is higher than the site bankroll, wouldn't such a system maximize the risk (along with expected profit)? Is that desirable, say, against a 1% fixed max profit?
Am I correct to say that in such a case, an investment in bustabit would be safer than one in moneypot?
Edit: What would be the max bet (on a 1% HE) on a 999x line on a 100BTC bankroll? I think it would be higher than LB's..
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1043
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Economy / Gambling / Re: Moneypot just took a huge loss?
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on: February 03, 2016, 06:18:15 PM
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I think you may have missed the part of the thread, where it was demonstrated how and why it should have gone through. There was no mistake
I tried to read and understand things again, but still can't seem to. Can someone summarize why the bet went through? Was the bet supposed to go through? https://www.moneypot.com/bets/18530298 shows <1% house edge. But risking tens of bitcoins at 1% edge is crazy, so I assumed it shouldn't have gone through  Edit: unless the max bet plinkopot shows is wrong, and the amount taken as trying to win is much lower than the max payout on the line. |
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1045
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Economy / Games and rounds / Re: The Primedice Palindrome Hunt! [Up to 5 BTC in prizes!]
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on: February 03, 2016, 08:32:55 AM
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List of lottery entries: Please do not add new lotto entries into previous posts. Lotto numbers:
1. 2,7,5
2. 6,3,8
Username :samiya
Lotto : 2,4,8
Lotto :7,4.2
Lotto :3,4,8
Lotto :1,9,6
Lotto :3,3,5
Username : cripto
Lotto : 1, 1, 8
Lotto : 3, 6, 4
Lotto : 1, 6, 0
Lotto : 0, 6, 8
7, 4, 2
9, 3, 7
Username: flippy
1,7,3
2,8,4
3,9,5
4,0,6
5,1,7
6,2,8
284
957
295
068
375
962
username : seephy
246
357
468
579
680
username : Vhoss
lotto entry
8,4,2
8,2,2
1,2,3
1,4,5
1,6,7
1,8,9
2,2,3
2,4,5
1,4,9
2,3,6
7,8,5
893
294
Username : fulgdenea
Lotto: 7 , 6 , 9
2 , 5 , 7
0 , 3 , 1
283
691
472
058
517
184
369
username samiya
lotto:0,5,6
Username: dre1982
Lotto:
4.1.7
5.5.3
8.2.4
Username : amatsukami
Lotto : 8, 2, 8
Lotto : 4, 8, 7
Lotto : 8, 0, 8
Username: maxhor
Lotto : 2, 3, 5
Username: flippy
7,3,9
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1047
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Economy / Gambling / Re: Moneypot just took a huge loss?
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on: February 02, 2016, 08:01:05 PM
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I'd just take the highest multiplier as the trying to win amount. So the max-bet would be say on a 100BTC bankroll, and a 100x max multiplier on 1x kelly would be 0.01BTC.
That's not a 1x kelly, though. What MP uses, is a 1x kelly. Well, then I won't use kelly.  I don't seem to understand the kelly either.  |
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1048
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Economy / Gambling / Re: Moneypot just took a huge loss?
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on: February 02, 2016, 07:47:09 PM
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So a bet that should have had a 30%+ house edge (which is certain to make most gambler's think twice) goes through at 0.92% HE? Isn't that considered negligence? Over months of running no one checked if max bet is in force for plinko? The restriction is on profit, not wagered. You could wager >1000 BTC if you wanted, as long as you weren't trying to win too much
I'd just take the highest multiplier as the trying to win amount. So the max-bet would be say on a 100 BTC bankroll, and a 100x max multiplier on 1x kelly would be 0.01 BTC. Edit: On a red (usually) line the player would be trying to hit the highest multiplier which should the trying-to-win amount, Looks like it's above others', too, with Bitvest's hefty loss today (9.2 BTC loss on a 0.1 BTC bet, with a 160 BTC bankroll). Wondering what their mass loss per roll is.
Bitvest has only allowed the max bet that it states as limit against each line. The bet in question was around 0.008 BTC that fell into a x1111 payout. The investor cannot claim not to know the risks. |
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1049
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Economy / Games and rounds / Re: [Primedice.com] The Primedice Palindrome Hunt! [Up to 5 BTC in prizes!]
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on: February 02, 2016, 07:03:01 PM
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Anyway because my point only 94 it means I only have 3 lotto ticket , right ?
Yep. Just being doubt about the primary prize :
Are being the first leaderboard will guarantee that top player will receive BTC 1 absolutely or they still need another luck from lucky draw ?
Yes, the first in leaderboard would guarantee a prize of 50% of the increasing prize pool. So at the moment, the winner gets at least 1.14 BTCThe second would get at least 0.456 BTC (20% of the pool) and the third 0.228 BTC (10% of the pool) The remaining 20% is split up among runner-ups positions 4 to 10. In addition to the prizes, we have a lottery, so that even if you are not on the leaderboard you can still win prizes. The lottery prize pool is currently at 0.56 BTC (increases by 0.01 with every participant) and the entire pool will be distributed among winners of the lottery who match 3, 2 or 1 numbers respectively. |
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1050
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Economy / Games and rounds / Re: [Primedice.com] Just making it rain for no reason - Up to 0.02 per person
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on: February 02, 2016, 03:25:22 PM
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full member, can not participate?
Full members can participate. 0.001 BTC each. maybe he forgot to write No, I have it confirmed. Full member gets the same as member. yes I think also with an account that has over 3 months can. but still many of my friends argue that it can not. Ok I will try.
Any one of the eligibility requirement is enough to participate. Either Primedice account older than 3 months or over 0.2 BTC wagered on your Primedice account. Thanks  Jerry (Yep, that's me! tired of ndhcs ) |
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1052
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Economy / Reputation / Re: The BCT PGP/GPG Public Key Database: Stake Your PGP Key Here
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on: February 02, 2016, 02:49:41 PM
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Here goes mine -----BEGIN PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK-----
Version: Keybase OpenPGP v2.0.8
Comment: https://keybase.io/ndnhc
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EVohluCLeL3gkIE6biLNn2JcwgOTH9DDLFLWZajyFuk/EWhmUFcH1se+C7ETA5Cv
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=lOx3
-----END PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK----- |
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1055
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Economy / Games and rounds / Re: [Primedice.com] The Primedice Palindrome Hunt! [Up to 5 BTC in prizes!]
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on: February 01, 2016, 04:45:59 PM
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Updated! Leaderboard, Closing Day 8. Tourney News: flippy advances 2 positions in a neat move!
In the screenshot hui is 3rd, on the spreadsheet I'm third. You should probably just put hui in 3rd - he's way ahead of me in total points and I'm probably not going to compete further.
I had not tweaked it to check to total entry points in case of a draw, just because it is a pain to make it do all that with a ninja spreadsheet formula lol. Such cases won't be frequent and usually temporary. Congratz on reaching the second position on the current Leaderboard with the magic roll. |
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1059
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Economy / Gambling / Re: SUPERBOWL 50 FREE BET!! = Official VegasCasino.io thread - Viva Las Vegas Baby!
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on: January 31, 2016, 11:58:57 AM
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100 mBTC RISK FREE BETBET ON THE PANTHERS TO BEAT THE BRONCOS AND GET YOUR MONEY BACK IF THE PANTHERS LOSE!
Bet on Carolina Panthers to Win before the game starts on Sunday, February 7th, 15:25 ET, and we will give you up to 100 mBTC back if they lose to the Denver Broncos!
There is no denying the fact that the bookmakers have the Panthers as the favourites for a reason. Whether it is their intimidating 17-1 record for the season, the form of Newton’s offense or their solid defense, it’s going to take a Herculean effort from the Broncos to stop Carolina from winning their first Super Bowl.
BET RISK FREE NOW Made the bet! Thanks for the promo |
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