No I do think its possible this time though the maths behind it is funny perhaps.   If 3 million people take part in this promotion and they get say 2 Golden ticket and maybe they already have 2 or 3 themselves just from normal use of the site in some way and GT win on wheel spins maybe.    So collectively thats perhaps 9 million GT tickets and the result of the draw could result in someone with very few tickets winning, not as they alone had a great chance but because multiple instances of this outcome were entered into the draw.


Those kind of figures even vs a big gambler will swamp the odds, its making it highly possible for an outlier in appearance to actually win.   We  may end up seeing 'the little guy' winning this one  and its justifiably a possibility.

At end of last year 100k seemed a target too high.  It wasnt edited in, that was there from the beginning so all votes were cast with the same choices.

The choices at the end are just the wild card answers,  100k seemed a wild choice to me but to some extent this is bias in the questionnaire which I think does happen in all kinds of polls.   People asking a set of questions expect a certain range of results but with Bitcoin anything can happen.

Of course I would love if BTC made 100k in a fairly short time period of just this year.   42.3k was open price of Jan 1st.   My general take is many moves are reversed, we lose as much as we gain in cycles, bullish trends would just be where the losses are less in some amount then the gains.   

If the number one rule for Bitcoin is volatility we can move back to 52k or somewhere like that and then everyone's perceptions and preferred choices will alter again.   I mentioned locking this thread so we only update the idea after big movements in BTC price action and its always vs that end year target guess.

   I reckon we aint moving much till April & might be a month from now or longer..   Look at the daily bars now, every bar is smaller then the last we are being squished till implosion or explosion ?   Thankyou for all commentary 

Big assumptions quite obvious even now is the Dollar will be worth less in 2030 then now, its only the extent to which it declines.    The Federal reserve has their plan of 2% decline every year and they equate this to growth and stability in some way, it does also indicate they have no intention of allowing a hard money or appreciation in FIAT assets to occur.

Prices of almost everything else will likely be higher when priced in Dollars presuming ongoing demand and flat growth.   A few markets might have growth above demand and so prices might have a chance to drop.
 Many people hope technology has growth that equates to price cuts for the same amount of power that's basically a premise of BTC blockchain mining hence the tightening from halvening we are about to have.

The worst bets when you are a kid are dares to take risks, this story doesnt involve me but I know others did bets or dares where you win if you complete the challenge.   The worst challenge was to zipline down a live electric cable, from a railway bridge you could jump on and get down to the ground.  One person jumped on with a metal watch on his wrist, it doesn't work out well for him and he got electrical burns.   Thats the worst kind of gambling, with money all that can happen is you go broke but amazingly there is worse behavior where people risk there lives for a bet, common in drag racing with cars also often deaths can occur.

Always watch with a bet but the game must come first imo, if you are to get distracted and have to constantly manage a live bet then you can end up losing parts of the game which is unfortunate.    Nothing wrong with a bet you close early because you already got most of the profits showing and want to just enjoy the game, I find if its open Im still distracted a bit so I will close out at least half my bets on a game so I have less to worry about at times.  

Depends on the game also, some games dont turn out so interesting to watch so maybe you dont care and let the bet run if its viable or not worth closing out.

ETF definitely seemed to ignite interest, it doesn't have to be direct exactly but allow a wider market to access BTC and also the news itself gaining attention I think that was something that helped the trend.     I always look at market pricing as a balance and anything which pushes the balance to positive or negative can be a tipping point; people then notice the positive bias and dive in to amplify the effect.    Because of that noticeable speculative effect, BTC price tends to over do itself so we can expect a pullback hence right now its all in line imo

A push forward, now a pullback and eventually we accumulate and rise again.   Seems we have more time to wait for a positive phase to become more obvious.   I will lock this thread again at end of the forum day because its Year end guesses - just until an interesting thing happens, I imagine sometime in April we get a movement past the range of March.    

Still can we guess higher from this 65k BTC price now upto Year end or is it sideways or down from here, I still imagine negatives that are possible.   Always wider world news can be negative, etc.   overall I'm bullish and I believe uncapping the ATH like this leads to more sooner or later, for now its fizzled out some.

Funny what people speculate on as being related, not everything is see through in cause and effect.  FJ is definitely super long term operation, I was on their original sig campaign way back and the one some years after that through a very harsh pullback into the lower 4 figures for BTC they seen it all at this point; its not really a wider sign if they stop or start some activity so far as I know.    Good company they kept my balance safe even when I forgot about it for literally years and years, have to repeat they are a good sort as its least I can do.  Same for Coinbase, no idea how I stumbled into trying to register a new account forgetting I used them to buy pc gear in 2014 so I already had it.

  Im a big fan of any long term operation in BTC, I think they are quite vital staging points for people to interact with and rely on as a solid landscape across BTC.   So FBC is awesome and others.  Even still, FJ is just 1 place, I wouldn't take that as a wider point to speculate on BTC unless there is a wider trend or news etc.


BTC has both lower highs for over a week and also higher lows which is a constricting range.  Apparently diminuendo is the word for the opposite of crescendo but if you could hear BTC as a tone it'd be more obvious, its a distinct pattern for sure imo.  The peak and diminish to a pattern is a natural movement, I was watching some multi decade traders but they recognize profit taking afaik.   I do expect some conclusion but Im not thinking we get it before month end.   My theory some emphasis always occurs around the tax year end but obviously people thinking of halvening etc.  it can be many things, simply consolidation & later greater range is expected, a break.

There is reasoning to avoid multiple confusions that the military use one time with offsets, Zulu time or basically similar to GMT.    Iam surprised to find the whole of India is one single time zone, thats alot of people and distance surely with all different sun rises and sets.   [Amazing the time zone is half an hour not a full hour from others, very unique ]

Anyway this prediction of a few days is a time period very short term, I missed the thread but its pretty random to predict I guess so I would left it for others.  We've been mostly pinging back and forth in a range seems like; I was coming round to thinking we meet the 50 day average which is not the correct format for this contest I know but BTC is up in the air and everything seems a moving target right now.

This is not new, they have been fighting on that border for a decade or more.  Is it escalating is the question and is there really any advantage to what war would occur.  Hostile and actual intent to make war backed by the idea of gaining something would be two different things.   I dont see either party gaining only losing people and probably gaining no useful ground that makes any difference to each country.

Important note here for me personally is neither nation has oil where as you compare Iran and Iraq a border dispute there could involve the gain of maybe billions of value in oil reserves for that land.  Some useless land on the India China border doesnt seem as appealing in any dispute to me.   Without further knowledge of incentives I doubt it, perhaps there is other perspectives but plain hostilities is not unfortunately that abnormal even if people die I dont see an entire country dedicate itself to a war for those reasons.

For the end of month price bet soon to close, I read some of the odds & they are out of sequence appears like and probably too good value in some cases, doesn't mean they win but comparatively worth a try I figured.

As always there is no right answer, I was thinking earlier I bet BTC just drifts now.  Bit of a ping pong but like we're under water slow motion style  If we get a breakout and its a surprise thats always my ideal, that occurred on the last instance of this bet / guessing game and I was found wanting in my choices, I underestimated the move when at least a tiny bit placed on the edges of your expected trajectory for BTC.  It is worth placing on the outlier outcomes.    This time I dont feel a momentum is there ready to kick in, last time it slotted into place just in time.

Price repeats, what we have to do really is avoid being spun around till dizzy from tracking a price thats going in circles.   Watch for price action to do something different then you have a reason to act and expect a difference but BTC does its sideways dance quite often moving like a crab is its specialty to throw people off.



Most of March is just the same pricing within a range, slightly negative but not so much you can be too confident we wont attempt upwards once again.   I do think BTC stays within some ranges, once we act different is when I hope to look harder and see new action and movement up or down with a price not yet seen in March.

Weekly average blue above us, Monthly average below and some possibility of these old support lines on the border also.  Mostly we can conclude BTC price action is constricting over time.  So its the lines of a Python if you like

The general take on this applicable for a long time is that the greatest profits go to people able to put a product into the economy, usable by the masses.   Inventing or being a great mind in the theories of a product is not always as rewarding financially.  I agree with the other points made, a car is a depreciating asset and also costs alot of tax many places so some dont want or need it especially.

The invention of cars paid less then those able to invent a good process of supplying cheap cars to many people.   Some of the greatest cars are limited run builds, I'll never see or drive one probably but the biggest amount of money is the product for many people not the elite.  Its a dynamic of revenues over margins that is ironically repeated in capitalism, people who argue for other systems like government based forget how awful government operates unmodified by open competition alot of the time.    Education is overwhelmed and biased by its government ties, its why the whole subject of economics has to be read while sitting on a block of salt to season all that nonsense with.

We're trading below that level now and today the highs were found at the weekly average hence we are trading bearish for this week and probably next I think.   Till we confirm properly on a daily and weekly bar basis I assume we are range bound at best and negative at worst waiting for a break down further.

So near term negative and I think medium to longer term we are intact in a good recovery of all prior losses, its hard to be too negative overall in that full context.  However we have to find and prove that positive trait in the price action first, before then I think its best I watch for people taking off some of their BTC balance amidst background buying by the ETF perhaps and maybe others.
  Just the liquidity of some people selling is enough to bring us down 10k or more thats all quite reasonable.

Profit taking always happens and its no real negative just have to account for it and try to be fully aware of a change back to a positive trend, dont get too disheartened before that happens even if we do go back to prices in the 50's

50 GT is about the best possible for any probable win, the others require the touch of god on your soul moments before the win to occur    I only hope the effect is lasting enough to pass 3 weeks and win the actual Lamborghini for yourself, I got a golden ticket but not 50 of them so I dont expect to win but maybe.  This time around we might very surprisingly see a quite low figure GT Lambo winner, reason being that special event on this websites 10 year anniversary.

   In stats terms it might be more possible now then ever before because quite a few will have a golden ticket and collectively as a group, I forget the wording but you can group statistical outcomes if they share a common factor and theres quite a few with 1 or more tickets given to them by the site so who knows.   I would laugh my head off if someone won a Lambo with 1 ticket, impossible made real  

[I left my spins section of the site open on a tab, just accidentally clicked use all     But I got a golden ticket so wont complain, I can buy some back with the RP I won also :p]

Poor man has more time to invest we might hope though that doesnt have to be true, the rich man has more capital.  Everyone presumes the man with more capital has the easier task, he can take less odds with less risk and earn the same amount but its also true the richer gambler has the greater amount to lose.

Of the two I would like to argue the poor gambler has an advantage, mainly to be bold with no fear of this loss of what capital you have.  If you have little to nothing then reach for the boundaries of what task you may take on and achieve; its an ironic proposition but quite true the attitude and determination of a poor gambler can be far superior to others.

Children are an investment themselves, not all investment is money either sometimes its time and effort.   Dedication to learning a subject can be investment, I dont find any fault with letting children know about investment because learning is largely what we ask children to do without knowing why and its yield on what they learn that helps them later; its very much true children are involved in investing all their time before they even know why they should do such a thing.

If he provided the money to purchase the ticket its an arguable case I guess, its quite unfortunate and pathetic a situation.   Really I would decide by whoever paid for the ticket whether it gets split or not and even that could be hard to decide.    Regardless if I were the ticket holder in this case I would have given him at least 5% of the winnings just to settle it and get a signature for that payment but yea no chance of a relationship after this and its quite ironic what money can do in that respect.

57k to 73k roughly for March range and its done well in recovering today from the lows at about a monthly average roughly.    So now its back to the weekly average and slightly negative by that measure, I assume we establish a sideways range.   Eventually 50 day average will catch us up, its about 57k at the moment so that trajectory is moving us into April hence I think March doesnt lead us anywhere especially for the moment.

What I was trying to do for a while was catch the peaks, buy the spins like you say and then wait for BTC price to sell off.   Thats now a dangerous game because BTC became so bullish but if I'm right in predicting lower BTC I should try that perhaps.   I'll look again, the more perspectives on a problem the greater accuracy so I have to assume BTC price action is constantly changing like a snake snapping back on itself to catch off any predator or speculators even
  Probably not but you could double your gains that way, benefit from a sell off especially as BTC itself is probably going to rise over this year and/or next despite sharp peaks, sells possible also.

I came on just to mention the RP given every hour on faucet is boosted right now, I do think thats a nice offer considering the actual plain BTC is quite trimmed at these elevated price levels.  Its more worth collecting hourly during these offer periods imo

If you get rich and then stop gambling did you ever really love the game you were playing, if you do stop thats kind of sad because you are now with less in life after somehow having more that seems negative.   Play for the game always the money should be secondary and if you dont love the game dont continue because this situation really doesnt deserve a win its against the grain to hope you would gain from something you dont even enjoy.

Its a fair argument you could be so rich and busy with other things you no longer could have the effort left to enjoy gambling.  All or nothing kind of approach but I wouldn't stay away completely.    I can believe some people find no special buzz from gambling anything then large amounts but personally I dont need to risk need financial death to get a thrill from it, the win alone is what I like and the rest confirms the win.