The Covid-19 pandemic is ending, and stocks that have collapsed begin to rise again. I think this is a great opportunity right now for smart people to make money.
It will be great if in the comments you share information about promising stocks that are now at the bottom, with a logical reasoning why they should be pulled out.
The pandemic is certainly not ending, and stocks have been at a record high for the better part of the last year. The negative effects of Covid were pretty much confined to the months of March and April 2020 and it's been pretty smooth sailing since then with the stock market continuing to set new all time highs since then. |
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Coinbase claims to have an userbase of 56 million verified users. So first of all, it is really surprising to know that less than one-tenth of them can be described as "monthly active users". Why should anyone go through the rigorous KYC process, if they don't want to trade regularly (at least once in a month)? One reason may be that Coinbase is quite old (in terms of crypto). It was founded in 2012, and a lot of the users from those days may no longer be active now. I am sure that the ratio of active users to registered users will be much better for Binance.
If you bought bitcoin and aren't a day trader and are just content to hold, you wouldn't have a reason to be a monthly active user because there's no reason to log into your Coinbase account. I expect there is a good number of people who haven't bought more bitcoin in years at this point and are just content to let what they have sit in their Coinbase account. |
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that is not the total "value" it is the total "market cap".
market capitalization can only represent value if every single coin (supply) in this entire market was real and has been bought. when coins have massive premines and huge amounts of supply that is never entering circulatation that means that supply must never be considered in calculation of the market cap while it is.
for example you can create a coin that has a supply of 1 trillion coin and only sell 100 of it on the market. assuming each coin could get the price of equal to $1 that means you have created a coin with a market capitalization equal to $1 trillion while the real market capitalization is actually $100.
unfortunately this is the case for 90% of the altcoins!
for this reason this market can not be compared with other markets for example you can't compare it with Google because when Google's market cap is $1.4 trillion every single piece of share is accounted for. they can't create any out of thin air.
Market cap and total value are indistinguishable. In your example, the scarcity of the coin should be taken into account when determining the what the fair value price is if the buyers are rational. If a coin has 1 trillion in existence, a rational buyer likely wouldn't be paying a dollar for the coin because as a buyer you should know that the reserves could be released at any time and devalue what you own. Crypto investors are far from rational though, hence the disparity. And to correct your misunderstanding, Google can create more shares out of thin air. In fact, all the shares that Google has authorized are not trading currently. Public companies never sell as many shares on the open market as actually exist because they may need to raise additional money by selling more shares later. Google could release more at any time. |
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Truly, all we can do is to pray and have hope in God and our "politicians" that they don't play the same dictatorship card they played last year. It still gives me chills to the spine when I remember of being caged due to covid and it felt horrible since it expanded for months. But, as we know about psychology, once we know how an abnormal situation becomes normal, we are less likely to be traumatized by it again, because we have seen the end of it once, and I'm sure we won't feel that much trauma if we have to go through (God forbids) such situations again!
Anyone who was traumatized by the lockdown is being overly dramatic. And if you're "traumatized" by that more than millions of people dying from the pandemic then your priorities are off. The governments should have compensated people more for being in lockdown to ease the financial burdens, but that in no way excuses the conservative opposition to the actions needed to get the virus under control and stop transmission and mutation that's going to prolong the pandemic and kill millions of more people. |
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Well, this one would have been hard to manipulate since the tokenized version trades based on custody of actual shares, <...>
I would expect the two to trade in near lockstep now.
Oh really? Is there a share backing up a token? Who says that? It took years to have an audit of the reserves of the biggest stablecoin: who is taking care of auditing this particular token? How can be a share backing up a token if the share wasn't quoted in the first place? Who am I trusting to deliver the payoff when needed? I would love to trust those "code is law" token, but as usual, I feel uncomfortable trusting someone I don't know without a clear legal framework. Yes, the sponsor of the token (CM-Equity) has shares of Coinbase to back up each token and the tokens are redeemable for Coinbase shares on demand. These spot tokens are backed by shares of stock custodied by CM-Equity. They can be redeemed with CM-Equity for the underlying shares if desired.
CM-Equity is fully regulated in Germany, and is a licensed financial institution permitted to offer such products. All FTX users who trade tokenized stocks may also have to become customers of CM-Equity, and pass through CM-Equity's KYC and compliance. Furthermore, all trading activity may be monitored for compliance by CM-Equity. CM-Equity custodies the equities at a third party brokerage firm. CM-Equity (not FTX Trading LTD) provides the brokerage services. Since this is a regulated financial institution in Germany, I'd expect this to be true. They'd be in for some huge fines if they made these representations and they were not true. |
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To be honest, Wall Street predictions are crazier than ever and particularly crazier regarding bitcoin. Seriously, they have prediction spreads of x10 between Morgan, Goldman and all the rest of the so called investment experts. It is quite unusual to see these people diverge so much and my take is that they are absolutely confused about the whole crypto because they do not have the usual sources and methods that they use to deal with companies and other resources.
Well yeah, it's hard to "value" something that's arbitrary and speculative. Bitcoin doesn't produce income and it doesn't produce cashflow, which are two things needed to determine a valuation of what it should be "worth" in the present. Bitcoin is just worth what the largest group of people at any one time agree it's worth. While this is true for stocks as well, stock valuations are at least tied to valuation metrics (not always at any given time, but ultimately always eventually). |
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Yeah, Madoff fucked over a lot of rich people over a very long period of time--but if you've read a little bit into the history of the scam, there was one guy who kept questioning how Madoff was making such steady returns in both bull and bear markets. He even reported his concerns to the authorities, who did absolutely nothing.
It sucks when anyone gets scammed, but I'd have much more sympathy for the victims if they weren't so rich to begin with (but I'm not saying they deserved it, because they didn't). It does amaze me how brazen Madoff was to just flat-out lie to his clients for so long.
I didn't realize he was so old, but I guess time flies and I'd kind of forgotten all about him since he's been in prison. Too bad, so sad about the judge not letting him out on compassionate grounds. He didn't deserve that IMO.
It wasn't just rich people who lost money. There were pension plans, investment advisers who invest for retail investors, non-profits, and regular people who were invested. It's just that the "rich" people dominated the headlines. I generally agree that release from prison on compassionate grounds is overused. If you can't do the time, don't do the time. Prison is tough on purpose, you shouldn't get special treatment because you were old when you committed the crimes or got sick. That's the risk you took when you broke the law that you might have a miserable time in prison due to illness or old age. |
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It's offered from a licensed and regulated firm in Germany, and because the tokens are backed by the the shares, the token should trade in near-unison with the stock. So either Coinbase will is already expected to trade well above the target price listed above, or there's some information disparity currently and the token price will trade sharply down once Coinbase starts trading publicly.
Very interesting. Gray markets have been there since the start of financial markets, but I would steer away from highly manipulated, unregulated markets if I were trying to infer anything on the real thing. Well, this one would have been hard to manipulate since the tokenized version trades based on custody of actual shares, so it's just a way to trade something more easily that was locked away for accredited investors. That's one area I think tokens are very useful, as long as the entity sponsoring the token is a regulated financial entity in a country with strong financial regulation, as is the case here. To follow up on it, the token crashed hard when Coinbase started trading, which was one of the two outcomes I stated might happen. In retrospect, of course it was the cryptotraders who were wrong and hyped themselves into a risky position. :] I would expect the two to trade in near lockstep now. |
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The price target is for Coinbase. Interestingly, Coinbase hasn't started trading publicly yet but there is a tokenized version already trading and it's priced at $535 as of now. I was unfamiliar with this concept, but from the description: What are tokenized stocks?
Equities are stocks that trade on traditional regulated exchanges. FTX lists tokens on select equities. These spot tokens are backed by shares of stock custodied by CM-Equity. They can be redeemed with CM-Equity for the underlying shares if desired.
CM-Equity is fully regulated in Germany, and is a licensed financial institution permitted to offer such products. All FTX users who trade tokenized stocks may also have to become customers of CM-Equity, and pass through CM-Equity's KYC and compliance. Furthermore, all trading activity may be monitored for compliance by CM-Equity. CM-Equity custodies the equities at a third party brokerage firm. CM-Equity (not FTX Trading LTD) provides the brokerage services.
It's offered from a licensed and regulated firm in Germany, and because the tokens are backed by the the shares, the token should trade in near-unison with the stock. So either Coinbase will is already expected to trade well above the target price listed above, or there's some information disparity currently and the token price will trade sharply down once Coinbase starts trading publicly. |
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Aren't you forgetting about the British Pound? It lost a lot of value over the year but I don't think it ever went to 0.
Even if we changed it to 99% of fiat money crashes every 300 years, does it mean we have to wait for it to happen? The Lira is dying as we speak but it won't make people lose everything if they get rid of it and invest.
Well done, the Pound has indeed been around for hundreds of years and never gone to zero. OP also ignores all the currencies in use currently that have not gone to zero. The USD has been around for over 220 years as well and depreciates slowly and intentionally and it's worked well for a long time. But the point here is that even if the statement made by OP is false strictly speaking, the tendency of any fiat currency is going to 0. Both the Pound and the USD have lost more than 99% of their value and they keep going down. So they haven't reached zero yet but they are on their way to. Nobody alive has ever experienced that type of devaluation because nobody lives long enough to experience it. It's disingenuous to cite how much the dollar has depreciated since 1913 because nobody alive currently had money in 1913 and so nobody has experienced the rates you cite. Further, nobody holds significant savings in fiat currency anyway, it's held in investment classes that actually produce returns, so even over decades of living with a devaluing dollar, nobody experiences the full inflation rate in their lifetimes. Both of these facts together render the inflation issue as grossly overstated by crypto enthusiasts. |
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Even do we are covid-19 situation the bitcoin are still growing the prices and not only bitcoin some altcoins only increasing the prices of each. And I still believe that would be having more good news always about bitcoin. And I read some comments also bitcoin will be having increasing the price until the end of year 2021. Maybe it was a prediction only but there are time could be gonna be true, So we must as of now of what happen about bitcoin and we hope also covid-19 well end.
Corporations such as PayPal, Visa and Master are going ahead with plans to fully integrate cryptocurrency to their platforms. It is going to take some time, but the impact will be visible before the end of this year. The involvement of these corporations have expanded the cryptocurrency userbase by manytimes. For example, PayPal has made cryptocurrency accessible to its 361 million registered users. A lot of people who faced difficulty in purchasing and holding BTC can now do that through PayPal. Given these changes, I expect another major rally sometime soon. This has been the case for many months already, it's not going to be a needle mover anymore. Any price appreciation attributable to this is already factored in at this point. It's going to take massive new buying to continue to drive the price, which isn't going to come from PayPal users who would have already bought in en masse by now. |
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China passing in GDP seems inevitable. The US just doesn't have the population base to be able to have a larger economy than China, which has a billion more people in their economy than the US has. As more of the Chinese population moves into the middle class, their economy will continue to see robust growth. It's the same thing that made the US an economic super power. The fastest way to grow the economy is to increase the population base, which would mean increasing immigration. The US should be taking advantage of this while it's still the primary destination for skilled immigrants in the world.
it's not about the population. China made portions of their area attractive to investors they just have more money now because they allow investors and companies to move there because of their cheap labor. they also invest and acquire companies and commercial lots in US. the greatest achievement they did was when they've controlled the covid19 hence avoiding the recession too. while their economy is booming still and all else are falling apart, it's an advantage for them to push plans. It's absolutely about population. Just about every mainstream economist agrees that the fastest way to boost GDP is increase the population. GDP growth and population are inextricably linked. China is no longer the epicenter of cheap labor, it's moved to southeast Asia. China is outsourcing to cheaper production points to fuel it's economic growth, the same as the US did previously. All developing economies eventually reach the point where cheap labor is needed to fuel growth, and China is now reaching that point, which is why production of textiles has shifted to Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam, among others. What's fueling China's economic growth more than anything else is hundreds of millions of people moving into the middle class, because again, GDP is all about population size and technological advancement. No matter how technologically advanced the US is, it will not be able to compete with the sheer size of China's population, which is 4x our own. |
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Russia and China are both developing a digital currency as a way to avoid the US-denominated global system. The main challenge for the US will be that a main-stream digital system from either will allow countries to use it and avoid US sanctions and the Swift system. This will empower rogue nations like Iran and North Korea and serve as a major loss of US global economic power, which of course both Russia and China are attempting to engineer intentionally.
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In fact, at the threshold of 60k, we have elastic down two times ago...I think it's very difficult to break this threshold to create a new ATH, we need to add a new momentum and binder to be able to break the bulls take profit. Many financial experts have predicted the absolute threshold of bitcoin this year is $ 130k. It is entirely possible "if" there is more force from the institutional investors. It was the massive push by institutional investors that helped bitcoin break the limits! continue to hope!t
Financial "experts" have been predicting over $100k every year since for years now, they've never been right before so there's no real reason to give any weight to these predictions. Bitcoin is as likely to go back to $50k than it is to go to $70k, let alone go to $130k. |
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C'mon man. I respect your opinions Kevin but taking the declaration of UN SDG's as some sinister idea for a One world government is stretching it a bit too far. The UN has been doing this for a long time now. They support the flow of information, human expertise and capital resources to developing and under-developed countries from the developed world. Sure, they could do a much better job, but couldn't we all? The polity continues to evolve and regional unions like the EU were an evolution from Empires==>Nation states==>Democracies. The experiment failed spectacularly. With decentralization gaining prominence, we may well be moving towards a better alternative far removed from a one world govt. Consider the sources he posted. An opinion article from 9 years ago about how the Vatican wants a world government (which as far as institutions go, the Vatican is on the low end of what you would consider influential) and also as an opinion piece is prone to exaggeration and misinterpretation, and a second article that in no way supports the premise that the UN wants a one-world government. Further, believing that nations are going to surrender their sovereignty to a world-government is beyond ridiculous. |
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I like real estate as an asset class, and I have a lot of REIT investments because of the tax advantages of owning them. That said, I can't think of a more morally objectionable real estate class than prison REITs. Private prisons shouldn't even be a thing. Data centers are a growing and much more palatable REIT investment in my book.
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China passing in GDP seems inevitable. The US just doesn't have the population base to be able to have a larger economy than China, which has a billion more people in their economy than the US has. As more of the Chinese population moves into the middle class, their economy will continue to see robust growth. It's the same thing that made the US an economic super power. The fastest way to grow the economy is to increase the population base, which would mean increasing immigration. The US should be taking advantage of this while it's still the primary destination for skilled immigrants in the world.
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One problem is that it spreads asymptomatically, so you can't just avoid anyone who "has it" because you don't always know who has it. And another problem on top of that is that it's the people who don't believe Covid is a problem who are continuing the spread in the population, so you can't just say "let the people who are stupid go get infected then." The problem is that they're then spreading the virus to others and the longer it's swirling around, the more it mutates. The great fear is it will mutate in a way that we can't protect ourselves with a vaccine and then we'll be in much deeper trouble.
Obviously you can expect mutations as the virus has infected more than 100 million people till now, and has been around for almost one and half years. We failed to contain it within the initial months of the spread. Now every nook and corner of the planet is infected and new strains are being reported from these places. One thing to note here is that the most lethal and contagious mutations are being reported from countries that has mismanaged the pandemic. I am talking about Brazil, South Africa, Mexico.etc. Yeah, the one thing that is constant in all the mismanagement is it is conservative politicians in these countries that sought to undermine containment efforts by riling their supporters up into a frenzy over lockdown measures, vaccines, or social distancing and masking. Brazil and the United States are two such countries where having bad leadership from conservative, anti-science politicians have cost tens of thousands of extra lives. |
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The Elon Musk Bitcoin purchase was just the beginning, we have yet to see the full capacity of Bitcoin's value based on the demand from large scale individual investors/institution. As far as the correction is concerned, Btc is somehow having a slight correction when It went $40,000 for the first time, It corrected around $30,000 region after a few hours. Now, Bitcoin has reached $58,000 and is currently corrected. So, yeah everything that goes up must go down at one point, but we don't expect a sharp drop at this current rate.
Think about top 100 companies in the world moving their reserve cash into bitcoin, can you imagine what that would look like? All companies that have cash in their bank account doing nothing or collecting like 1% interest rate, would be willing to put their money into bitcoin, we are talking about at least 100+ billion dollars here, and all those wall street companies like JP Morgans and Bank of Americas and many others like that add a crypto section to their investments as well? That is at least another 50+ billion combined. We have moved so much with just 1.5 billion dollar addition, if we one day reach to the level I am talking about, it is simple impossible for bitcoin to be under 500k, it would really happen. Could this happen anytime soon? Not likely, it will definitely take a long time, but in a decade we could actually reach to that level so buying bitcoin right now could still be considered cheap. People keep saying this like it's likely and it just isn't. You may look at bitcoin and think there's no way it's not going to $100k, but taking that as a given is such an extreme viewpoint. Companies aren't in business to gamble, and bitcoin is a speculative investment. Most businesses don't sit on mountains of cash, so (i) their inflation risk is limited and (ii) what cash they have they need it to maintain a stable value, not maybe it's up 10% or down 10% on any given day. There's is absolutely no question that the dollar is more stable than bitcoin, and that's why it's unlikely for businesses to adopt it as a reserve in any meaningful way. Large investors who are put off by a weak dollar are flocking towards bitcoin, despite it lacking inherent fundamentals. Unlike gold, bitcoin is extremely volatile. I don’t think bitcoin can replace gold as an inflation hedge," he said.Another indicator that is flashing red is the bitcoin-gold ratio, which has risen from the levels of 1.1 to 15 in recent months. “Since both gold and bitcoin have finite supply, the bitcoin-gold ratio gives us a sense about which of the two is overvalued. Large investors are not "flocking" to bitcoin. Statistically, the absolute number of investors and absolute number of dollars going into bitcoin from "large investors" is minuscule compared to the overall wealth of these investors. Even trying to frame your argument like this shows how extreme your views are. |
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I don't know where you got this idea from that there will be a "One World Govt"...
This is a conspiracy theory of the deranged and the bible thumpers (ha, same thing). It's not a new theory. Anyone spouting it is instantly outed as someone who doesn't live in the reality and discredited as an independent thinker. I'm sure there is remarkable overlap in the venn diagram of "one world governmenters" and people who believe George Soros secretly controls the world. |
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