The Federal reserve and ECB had already parted ways in terms of monetary policy.  Europe will lower interest rates while the Dollar will not, the data coming to confirm the Fed as  correct to hold its ground just helps cement that situation further.    

I presume the effects will be to bring more strength to the Dollar index as the interest rates will help favor that trade over any equal move between the two central banks.  This may not help BTC as Dollar index or DXY higher generally means harder going vs FIAT or primarily Dollar which is the largest FIAT trade for BTC.

  This might out weigh halvening for importance and other factors, bringing back some bearish elements till we can equalize.  My own speculation was a possible sideways or slight sell over the summer and we resolve more constructively in the Autumn end of this year and beyond.

Its not the worst, the worst was right on the lows across many years.  This would just be selling mid way rather then the bottom price really, not the best timing not the worst.    Depends on if that person can buy back what they sold at any point.

I recommend if you do sell some you then buy monthly or some regular interval until you get back to the point of holding you had previously.  It might be the average is higher or lower then the price you sold at but either way its fair enough as you have had use of that money meanwhile.   The wider period for BTC right now is positive but near term it could experience continued selling and not enough buying which is a lower price but underneath I think its fine this whole year really.   Better to lose the sellers now then have them interfere later.

Overall my inclination longer term is not negative but my reasoning for why BTC can sell when it fails to rise is a general one always true, hot money.   BTC is massive compared to how it started but its also got this big by involving hot money, borrowed cash and leverage sent by FIAT Dollar.   Some people buy a price with zero genuine interest in that market, they need that price to move even a flat price is costing them

Leverage is toxic to BTC, its a terrible idea with oil and water dont mix levels of rejection if people dont make their profit off their dollars speculated they will retract harshly at times.    If you give me 100k and 2 months all I can do is give you back 100k maybe 97k as I spent a bit, its a disappointment far worse if you had costs to give that 100k that I returned no benefit to you on.

 A friendly loan and you had it spare its fine, if you made an effort to bend over backwards with cost of leverage to put that money out there in BTC market it can hit a bit harder and price can snap back a bit faster then expected.    Its only been a month and bit since todays price first registered, it might not matter so much just yet Im jumping the gun but thats why Im with my attempted analogy of us sitting in the desert sun; its only time but doing nothing could increasingly be hurting some parts of the market.
  Some people say you should sell about now every year and come back in the autumn.

Halvening is an event that is anticipated and price speculated beforehand but actually matters cumulatively over the entire year(s) afterwards so yea longer term but near term we have to watch theres no sting in a sell possible around 50 DMA.   62k is the bottom edge of this higher range, I'm drawing a line in the sand there; on the graph

So round 10 is the Lambo draw I just had tickets in but haven't seen a winner for.  I'm guessing I would have heard the Lambo if it was parked on my driveway but in theory who knows I might have won and not yet know it  I can continue to kid myself on that one.

More realistically I used RP to buy some wheel of fortune spins because if BTC does go down in theory thats about a gain > 6% with each blip the base amount goes up by and the majority of spins will return something like that base amount.  The side benefit being the golden tickets as a possible maybe, I doubt I'd get Rolex or similar large prize but somebody has to of course so more spins equals wins to summarize my flawless maths.


BTC can decline from here is fair still, its sideways gait showing in the desert sands at present but I think we nearing a conclusion.  Maybe it has to literally kiss the 50 day average to complete this whole sequence, thats a snakebite  ~volatility.

BTC price action is flailing around like a snake dying in the Nevada desert sun.  At this point its ready to picked off by an eagle and be ripped apart for its failure to effectively move for so long, my bet would be it snaps back and bites the eagle to survive once again.    So long  as BTC stays above the 50 day average its good but its really taking its time at this point, hence might suffer great injury and pullback to 60 or into the 50k pricing.

The surprising thing I saw recently was that Tyson has been in training daily for years, not just since this fight was discussed but its part of his permanent regime to stay in shape regardless of any schedule to fight with an audience.  If thats true and Tyson has a good trainer and a regular disciplined regime of exercise and sparring etc.  what real chance does an amateur have against him.  

If you dont use muscle it never stays, it reverts to fat because that is the form the body retains vs its various energy and heat needs as the most useful natural arrangement.  It matters a great deal if Tyson fights that process daily to stop himself slipping into retirement as an observer of boxing and his own great record but actively is retaining the capability for his own self respect and health.   The main thing I want to find out now is how true that is, could just be talk and a show or he really does carry himself at a higher standard then most of us tbh.

You can gamble as a pure game at any age from what I remember and games are totally natural safe so I never accepted any alarm over that topic.  For money big cash plays and certain games especially casino games is where it becomes an adult only activity.     The idea of a game even card games and you gamble anything at all, chocolates sweets whatever is perfectly fair.  Its just the 18 part when you start dealing in money because that can be its own risk in how people put in more money then they can sensibly afford, some do at least.

My take with crypto is it may increase safety because I dont tend to pay my real bills with crypto, I pay with credit card or whatever.  So in my take the money gambled via crypto is fenced off from the mainstream cash I use for the important bills etc.   I guess its not that way for everyone but I think of the two as separated and so safer.   Token gambling is a better idea and you just buy a set lot for that trip or day then thats your budget to win or lose.

The price was 19k last April and now we're saying 400k for an estimate.   Any price is possible but think of the disruption and alterations around BTC in order for that reality to be even true for a minute nevermind lasting.  Consider not just a price in an exchange but the entire market capitalization, the available supply vs the likely demand & also ongoing demand.

Measure the distance in those two prices from the low to that estimated high and the debris that would occur around that amount of change in the finance landscape.  No asset price is really operating in isolation from all the other assets, they have some relation and often value flows from one commodity to another that is in demand.

So for 400k we're talking about alot of dollars, these dollars are freely available in comparison to the supply of BTC which presumably is in great demand, poor supply and withheld by those that own it even at elevated prices.   When the price goes up, supply of BTC will open up selling from quite a few people who held BTC and are lacking in some other resource they want in the world.

What is way more realistic is staged changes to any prices, a circulation that is bullish but involves prices also going down sometimes.  All that would be normal, 400k is extremely abnormal for good reasons and should not occur in the near term or even this decade at all. Dollar is weak imo, when that becomes apparent we dont know as it will involve alot of changes.

The question can be read two ways, will we close at all above 75k in April.   Yes we will, sure why not pure volatility spikes can get us that far by lunch time and we sell back down by dinner.

The bigger question and Im guessing the intended question perhaps is to get 75k, hold 75k and maybe most of all to close the final day of April above 75k.   I guess it helps if the monthly bar on a giant graph using months would show 75k sustained, thats a mighty big building block by which we might go on so high as to touch space eventually.

Grand ambitions but first I would guess the best bet is that unless otherwise indicated we are always set to repeat and that means another March for April, I actually thought previously we'll sell into a negative April so this sideways close would be comparatively positive in resisting these profit taking temptations by so many who have held maybe a year or more; surely BTC is doing very well even while standing still.

Simple solution would be good at the game you play like Poker though a tournament doesnt allow you to quit until the end exactly but ideally you know and love the game you play most and so its always enjoyable even if not profitable.    

Otherwise the best method is simplicity, take the simplest risk to double your cash and you either succeed or you dont.   Bet it on red and you win or lose, dont kid yourself over complicated ideas of how to change this fundamental basis to your risk rewards.   I only say this from personal experience you can overcomplicate a bet, run out of time possibly or just expend too much time and effort dont get yourself in a twist you cannot defy gravity.   Competitive games vs other players might be the ideal as then your odds can be extremely good with your greater experience though this varies on the day.

I dont know about poverty so much but insolvency is more likely in countries where the national currency has collapsed this is best demonstrated.    If a country has a national currency so bad that business is impeded then Bitcoin is not required to be any angel perfect in its nature and efficiency it just has to be of some aid to the desperate and abandoned  in their business cash flow. It can be a vital life line for sure, partly this is down to dollar being a remote resource in some parts of the world also.

Another day another recovery above the weekly average and old ATH.  It is positive and I cant say buying now would be wrong at all when so many timeframes for BTC are in the right place.    We do not yet know if this current price action in BTC resolves positively, its sliding back and forth and could end up either way.

On balance even if you bought now and it failed to catch an immediate bid upwards to prices higher in 70k and beyond that is still not a negative.  The easiest thing to do is spread your investment, so you are unsure today and could at least split your buy into halves or even quarters or less and go today and again a week or month from now etc.

  Regardless of the price this would still be a good decision and justified plus are you not losing so much on average even if future buys are at a higher price, the main thing is to be involved dont get caught up hesitating over maybes because truth is there is never an absolute certainty on any price in any asset market.

Sounds very familiar and correct.   You play loose you could also be more flexible less committed to mistakes made and agile for the win, it is ironic but that is life in general imo.     Stay rigid and every hit you take transmits the full damage and you are acting wounded still trying to recover into the rounds that follow.  The more concentrated and stressed you are the more fragile your position when playing, thats why I really try to say all experience helps towards a win regardless of size if you can play loose when big or small in your bet then it will become more likely you stay with a good level attitude.

  Stability is number one priority, balance will allow you to handle the loss and direct your plays to win more often on average.

Its a struggling sideways market at best short term at present rather then absolutely bullish.   I take that as a positive as the market should not rise always and immediately without allowing sellers to offload regularly.  BTC is bullish on every time frame pretty much but the most questionable is the short term market where it could easily start to sell down some, that doesnt have to be a wider negative.    For the moment I take it as a sideways hesitant market at worst and consolidating into strength at best.

The only way I would guess Trump receives another chance at reelection is via the economy recession route but I dont think that is occurring but that'd be only historical precedent for that happening especially.         The famous quote I remember is by the process of inflation and deflation the population will lose the value they hope to retain, I will have to look it up but again historically this happened before.   Every FIAT currency fails is what we have to respect is both the past and the future scenario, the details of how we dont know because surely technology alters alot of it.


misattributed to Jefferson but apparently he said some of those words.   Anyhow my take the failure of the currency that has occurred, is failing the people today and will collapse in the future cant be taken as a surprise as almost every country has experienced this before in previous generations.

Disappointment here for me personally as we broke the old ATH but then have failed to keep above 71k.   It closed the daily bar there but has lapsed below today which means yet again a repeat not a rise.

On the bright side we are not falling we are just repeating a very high range of prices relative to where BTC was 6 months or earlier this year even, we gained alot then are halted in this area like its a red light traffic jam perhaps.   Its not slipping back so stay positive in the aspirations is quite fair in a medium term view way.


BTC is just above the weekly average, 68k or above is good.  It can still recover upwards just the pace is slow.   65k for 50 day average, if we lose that somehow then do become more negative in expectations.

All prices should be confirmed on 4hr  1 day and weekly bars at least to be confirmed as valid price action, volatility can move the needle briefly either way but its the hold and close of a bar which solidifies prices as valid like cement; time is a main ingredient.

Continuous build upwards, the recovery from a sell is pretty complete once again we are back at the top.   Does this roller-coaster loop or will we see the next part of the ride finally I want to know.  Looking good on the 4hr, daily and weekly.  Moving averages in alignment for a further rise from here, I think a gain of some kind is certainly possible from now till end of 2024.

I dont estimate 190k I dont even think of 100k or nearby.   My imagination and optimism only stretched as far as this current level and maybe a little below that to be honest.  My simple reasoning being that not all weather is fair weather, to get natural growth requires rains winds and even storms then you get actual yearly growth properly done.   We cant assume price is rising even during a bullish period, I dont think Im so negative bias in my outlook but maybe Iam.

The price is set to gain if buyers should able to continue at these higher prices.   My judgement is based on value, I'd rather always buy the lows not the highs but it doesnt always work out that way and the price can continue to rise as people chase the highs.

The poor gambler is always risking more because the only way to answer this question is in percentage terms.   Its really about income more then capital, some people are capital rich but short on income at times and not so often the other way round is that true.

The poor gambler must count their steps more carefully and consider the risk better to not over step a bet that leaves them walking home.  The rich bettor has a driver and car waiting for them outside anyway comparatively, you have less to worry about if richer and thats the real luxury of that situation.

The biggest bonus about being the poor gambler is any casino offer is a bigger deal to increase your available bets with the small amount you may have also more leeway with the bonus given you have time to work out the best way to win and repeat that win for a chance to cash out with more then you came.

Every loss is bigger but also every win is bigger when you are poorer, to me the game is greater for the poorer gambler.  In a funny way we should be envious of the man who can double his net worth in a night because he came to the table with so little its a bigger deal all round for them.

You will spend money in gambling is the best compromise to this phrase, you may some win back and increase also thats why its confusing to say.  I wouldnt put it in either absolute statement loss or always win, neither will be true always but you are spending the cash on a risk bet. 

Once you accept the money is being spent on a leisure activity it should become alot clearer.  You dont all your money on sweets even if they taste nice because you must allot money elsewhere  for just plain food and normal bills.  So you must only allocate a certain amount of spare cash to gamble.   If its lost then you come back the next time you get paid and try again, like any hobby or past time you can only spend so much money and so much time and its then time to do other things.  Safest technique is bet over time never all at once, do that and everyone is fine imo.

I speculated that with the delays in supply of certain items (chip delays during covid etc.) and car waiting lists, one day that might mean the Lambo became worth more then taking the BTC instantly.   Thats hard to happen because you get interest on the BTC if you take it immediately so its going up right away.

There are some cases where a car is worth more because theres a limited amount available.  Some people speculate on new models that they can sell it for more then its being retailed at.  One day it could happen but I presume this model is not restricted supply in that way just yet so I guess nobody literally took the car yet.  You can get the BTC and buy itself, there is the taxes side of things that the car might work out better maybe some places the car is taxed less but yea it'd be unusual for sure.

Good news on BTC seems to it has resolved itself in a bullish way, its now above the old ATH level.  Theres a pattern of higher lows and for a time there were lower highs, that has now given way for a new local high.  Hopefully this indicates the indecision in the pricing is now over and we can make a new range for the first time since March start.  71k just today is 12hr average, see if it can hold that and holds todays gains closing the daily bar as that would matter more otherwise it can just be a blip that never shows further out on the graph.