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501  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 06, 2015, 10:00:48 PM
Microtriangle forming?

Good show anyway  Grin
502  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2015, 01:14:47 PM
0.2380952380952381 (assuming no trading fees) --> I want to be called a genius too...  Grin

I call you GENIUS. High-class calculator operator.


Yeehaww, I knew those years of intense practicing would pay off.  Gonna print this post and let my mummy stick it to the refrigerator Grin .
--> ok, I am done being off topic for now.  Wink
503  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 30, 2015, 01:02:33 PM
I just had a 235.07 sell order filled, from a 214.xx buy barely a week ago. Im happy.  Grin
Congratulation to your 5$ profit!! I am really happy for you   Cheesy
235-214=5? You were perma-high on a math in school? Grin
Well, maybe there was only 0,5 BTC traded?
I know, I'm a genius.
0,25
You're the genius.
0.2380952380952381 (assuming no trading fees) --> I want to be called a genius too...  Grin
504  Economy / Speculation / Re: And it begins on: April 29, 2015, 07:36:15 PM
why do people keep saying that to me, when I am making like 1000 % in profits from it?

why dont you, for a change, do your own business?  

Because by your own admission you have been trading with leverage for only a few months and it is obvious to everyone you are over invested.
If you read (somewhat between the lines of) his comment, he has already taken profit off the table.  I don't think anybody needs to worry about Tarmi going bankrupt.
505  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 29, 2015, 07:18:57 PM
... I would say that a stagnant usage for e-payments is quite good given the >1 year bear market (with the resulting decrease of new blood).  

What's the rational thing to do when the value of a currency is falling?
That's right, *spend it*. As fast as you can.

Nice trolling try, but not really.  
The rational thing to do, would be to spend it if the future price would be lower, and buy it if the future price would be higher.
However, the fact is that you can only know for sure what the price has done in the past.  Trying to predict the future is speculation.

506  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 29, 2015, 01:14:00 PM
this plot



that shows that the number of deposits per day into BitPay's receiving wallet was quite flat through most of 2014, and increased by a factor of ~3 since mid-2013; whereas this plot



shows that the bitcoin volume of those deposits has been constant at ~1000 BTC/day since Jan/2013.  (Explaining these numbers is not trivial, but they definitely contradict the claims of "booming adoption", and are consistent with may other indications that usage for e-payments is stagnant at best.)
This sounds plausible to me.  I would say that a stagnant usage for e-payments is quite good given the >1 year bear market (with the resulting decrease of new blood). 
507  Economy / Speculation / Re: This forum is not an indicator for the real sentiment anymore. on: April 25, 2015, 05:50:48 PM
I find it kind of fascinating, that almost all great forecasters I have great respect for see a continuing downtrend. Knowing, that they have a big number of interested followers. I am quite sure, we have seen the low of this bearmarekt already in january.
This, my beloved bullfriends does not mean we are seeing any bubbles soon. I kind of agree with master luc, that we could establish a very long sidewards movement, which could easily take more than one year from where we are now. This will greatly help the bitcoin ecosystem to flourish more and more as a payment system (cash in vs. cash out in balance + newly mined coins absorbed). It would be very daunting for get rich quick bulls. It will be boring for shorters.
Happy boring markets!  Grin

tl:dr; no price action for at least one more year. bitcoin becomes useful for users and boring for speculators.

Agreed.  Here's hoping that in the mean time, outstanding core issues get consensus (scaling, sidechains, lightning network etc.) and goverment regulation proves to be workable in a decent portion of the world (while BTC businesses mature).
If that's the case, I'll be mightily bullish.
508  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 20, 2015, 07:54:52 PM
If the US calculated unemployment the same way as Spain does, the US would be well above 25% unemployment today.

The US unemployment calculation has been modified and manipulated to show good numbers over the past 50 years. The headline number today is the U3 rate, but we used to show the U6 number which included underemployed as well. On top of this none of these numbers include people who dropped out of the workforce and are now on entitlements (which is unemployed). You add this all up and we are well past 25%. If the government ever runs out of entitlement money people are going to see just how bad the employment situation really is.

But we live in the era of twitter politics that generate headlines such as "Unemployment dropped to 5.6% under Obama", never mind the fact that Obama changed the calculation a bit to hit that number, and the number is complete bullshit.

Yes, the numbers are so distorted they have lost historical significance. 100 years ago government workers were counted as unemployed as they were funded from taxation, not the productive economy. Not only does the debt-based financial system need a reset button, so do economic statistics.
I know we are in liberterian territory on this forum, but that's a bit much.  Whether a service is provided by a private firm or the government doesn't really matter as long as the service is being provided (and at the same or a similar cost).  Obviously, it can be argued that the private sector allocates capital more efficiently, and that government structure leads to squandering, but considering every job that is paid by the government as non-existent is a clear error (inb4 every government job does harm).
509  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: [ESHOP launched] Trezor: Bitcoin hardware wallet on: April 09, 2015, 01:45:54 PM


We have released firmware 1.3.3 with the TREZOR Connect for passwordless login to websites and apps.
 
Read more here http://satoshilabs.com/news/2015-04-07-trezor-firmware-1-3-3-connect-api/ and don't forget to update your firmware.
Very cool stuff !  Two thumbs up !
510  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: April 09, 2015, 12:58:53 PM
try grafting on an additional persons circulatory system to yours.  see if your heart can handle the extra load.  it can't as it is in equilibrium and its capacity is fine tuned for your body only.
Actually (though I don't know if anyone has ever done this on a human), this works fine in mice.  Look up 'parabiosis'.
511  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2015, 10:06:02 AM
Urgh, had a short on LTC/USD on bitfinex but chickened out at a small loss at 1.7 .   Kicking myself right now  Cry

Oh well....

I am staying on the sidelines for a while, let's see how all this plays out.
512  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2015, 10:01:05 PM
Distributed ledgers/databases/networks that rely less and less on cryptocurrencies.

Simply put, today cryptotokens "are there" because that was the only security mechanism for a blockchain/consensus ledger to work that we know of. Cryptocurrencies are not really needed for themselves and they have a lot of problems that make them almost unusable as actual currencies (aside for illicit goods).

If you don't use POW or POS for getting consensus, don't you automatically end up with a centralized system?  Honest question.
513  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2015, 02:33:12 PM
The Peter Todd Drama is just heating up, with the potential of essentially forking the development team. If there ever was a time where "fundamentals" stand on dubious grounds it's now.

Links?
Yes link please.
I guess he is talking about this: https://medium.com/@octskyward/replace-by-fee-43edd9a1dd6d .

I doubt it is such a big deal though, just a proposal that is being shot down.
514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2015, 06:14:05 PM
i'm now officially short on food to buy bitcoin.  Kiss
That's not a healthy situation bro  Undecided
515  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 25, 2015, 05:41:09 PM
The lower you drive the price, the more ammo you give to your 'opponents'.   Great strategy he is proposing  Roll Eyes.  Well I guess it could work if the world only contained panicking headless chicken-types and no determined investors.
I'm not sure you understand how much little money (in relative terms) is needed for these scenarios to happen.

I am sure you don't understand how little impact this will have in the long run.
516  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 25, 2015, 04:07:56 PM
for someone who claims not to be a newbie troll, you sure argue like it.

these issues have been discussed ad nauseum since day 1 2009.  i won't bother with the 51% attack since it hasn't happened and probably never will.  too much effort for lazy fiat artists who would rather manipulate than actually work.  while they could try to short it down using the few exchanges that do allow it, they would be taking huge risk in leaving such large amounts on exchanges presumably unfriendly to their cause and overseas.  audits will help prevent this along with the risk of these centralized exchanges being hacked or shut down like Evo walking off with all their funds.  if that ever happened, lots of heads would roll at these 3 letter agencies or banks.  there's no printing of BTC to bail them out either.
The lower you drive the price, the more ammo you give to your 'opponents'.   Great strategy he is proposing  Roll Eyes.  Well I guess it could work if the world only contained panicking headless chicken-types and no determined investors.
517  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 25, 2015, 03:59:51 PM
2: Wire $20M-$50M on various bitcoin exchanges and short it down to single digits and beyond in one go totally destroying confidence.
Currently there are around $15M in bids (lol) on all major exchanges combined and plenty of longs that can be completely margin called ($23M+ on bitfinex alone for example), it should be fairly easy.
Not only $20M-$50M is nothing for them if they are inclined in "killing" BTC, they would also make a very good profit on top of it.
yeah, if ever something like that were to occur, BTC would be finished for sure...   Roll Eyes



Inb4 "This Time is DifferentTM "
Are you serious?

So you think that crashing from $0.06 to $0.01 in the early days (for just a few moments) when BTC was traded by a handful of people at mtgox with a few k of trading volume and crashing to say single digits now after having reached $1200 and having stayed in triple digit range for more than a year are pretty much the same thing?

Are you for real


Because yeah, if somebody uses $20M to short BTC to single digits in a few weeks/months and keeping it there for a decent amount of time, confidence is not killed. Bitcoin eventually recovers and everything is just fine.
Sure Roll Eyes
God you people are predictable.
518  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 25, 2015, 03:23:44 PM
2: Wire $20M-$50M on various bitcoin exchanges and short it down to single digits and beyond in one go totally destroying confidence.
Currently there are around $15M in bids (lol) on all major exchanges combined and plenty of longs that can be completely margin called ($23M+ on bitfinex alone for example), it should be fairly easy.
Not only $20M-$50M is nothing for them if they are inclined in "killing" BTC, they would also make a very good profit on top of it.
yeah, if ever something like that were to occur, BTC would be finished for sure...   Roll Eyes



Inb4 "This Time is DifferentTM "
519  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2015, 09:22:40 AM
bitcoin is overrated and overpriced

For now though, yes it is, maybe Bitcoin should go under $100 and stabilize the price. But if it goes too low, the miners will become unprofitable and they will leave.

Miners will leave well before $100

The miners are not needed anyway, since most mining runs through only a few pools.
The security the network is only supported by the security of the biggest pools. If the biggest pools, that make up at least 51% together, are compromised, then the integrity of the network is also compromised. And it doesn't matter how much hashrate is backing those pools.
*faceplant*
And of course miners can't switch mining pools  Roll Eyes .
EDIT: And whether it cost a billion or a few dollars to create your own mining farm that controls >50 percent of the network doesn't matter at all...
520  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2015, 09:18:00 AM
bitcoin is overrated and overpriced

For now though, yes it is, maybe Bitcoin should go under $100 and stabilize the price. But if it goes too low, the miners will become unprofitable and they will leave.

Miners will leave well before $100


What happens if the price go under 100 dollar, will miners leave and bitcoin die???
Stop thinking in absolutes.  Some miners will leave, mining difficulty will drop and the remaining miners will become profitable again...
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