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521  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Brainstorm: displaying of bitcoin prices & balances, BTC Vs BITS on: October 23, 2014, 03:51:47 AM


This looks good!
522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 23, 2014, 01:29:13 AM
Everything is based on risk/reward. If someone gave you 3-1 on a coinflip you would accept it instantly, but you could easily lose. Moreover, if they demanded you wager your entire net worth, the math would direct you to decline the offer.

Quote
The story about the Texan? “True,” Baldwin said. Packer was
at one table and the Texan, playing one table over, wanted some bigger
action. Packer turned him down. “The other guy said, ‘I’m a big player
too. I’m worth a hundred million.’ “Kerry said, ‘If you really want to
gamble, I’ll flip you for it (the $US100 million).’ ” The Texan quietly
went back to his game.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2006/01/12/kerry-packer-the-texan-the-toss-and-the-truth/
523  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 22, 2014, 11:06:41 PM
http://www.blockstream.com/

would be interested in hearing what Gavin thinks of sidechains specifically:

https://twitter.com/gavinandresen/status/524975947356061697

I like sidechians. It can solve a lot of problems.


Gavin should be very pro-sidechains.  It solves his need for scalability.  

Many plug-ins can be installed on top of bitcoin.
e.g.  sidechain for local economy (town, country) .. "main" blockchain can remain small

how do you secure it?

Answer #2
5 companies or individuals create their own sidechain  (they know each others, and they sign some agreement.)

- all transactions in their sidechain must be signed with all 5 parties (POS) -> in order to add in block
- working hours 10 am - 6 pm


IBLT kicks most of the scalability argument for sidechains into touch and out of bounds.
524  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A difference of opinions at the Bitcoin Foundation regarding the XBT proposal? on: October 22, 2014, 10:41:13 PM
I'm on the working group. There are lots of options for units to go with an ISO 4217 currency code. Would XBT = 100M satoshis (1 bitcoin) be better than XBI = 100 satoshis (1 bit)?

I have over 20 years experience working on FX systems, and I strongly advise that the primary objective here, with the standards authorities, is:

[An official ISO code] = 100 satoshis.

If Bitcoin is to remake the mainstream financial world, this will give it a massive advantage, but obtaining any other official standard will be of little benefit in comparison.

Can we get two currency codes? Doubtful, but is worth discussing.

If we can get two currency codes, that would be excellent. However, the standards people would want to see them alphabetically contiguous, so XBT:XBU could fly, but XBI:XBT is improbable.


525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 22, 2014, 06:56:00 AM
Chinese 10k wall still here? Someone is buying coinz for peanuts...  Shocked

That wall hasn't bought 1 BTC yet, and when there was a dip it was pulled and then dropped 20 yuan. Sellers see it and are holding back.
526  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 22, 2014, 06:50:01 AM


How Japanese Hyperinflation Starts (In 1 Chart)

That new bitcoin exchange in Japan may be an example of perfect market timing.
527  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is there a difference of opinions at Bitcoin Foundation regarding XBT proposal? on: October 22, 2014, 03:33:05 AM
Non-mathematicians have difficulty picturing sums like 0.00014321 BTC, which would be 143.21 XBT if XBT=100 satoshi(s)
The transition would be even more seamless because people already started thinking in bits. If 1XBT=1bit=100 satoshi, it would all make sense.

I like this too, and think it is the best option.

However, an alternative is to try and get two ISO codes, with XBT for 1 bitcoin and XBU for millionths (which would be used in existing financial systems).
528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 22, 2014, 12:55:34 AM
I mean the ability for a company to raise funds by selling equity as bearer shares is one that only companies in the informal economy will benefit from.

Isn't this a near tautology? A company issuing bearer shares is very likely not compliant with securities laws and has therefore entered the informal economy if it wasn't there already.

The more interesting question is whether this will cause the informal economy to expand, or the definition to shift.


Economies used to be mostly informal (free), before recent decades when computer technology has enabled governments to implement ever greater surveillance and micro-management of the financial sector, turning Orwell's 1984 from a warning into a road-map. Paper share certificates were similar to cash. Corporate share registers were intended to ensure that that people's holdings were secure, not provide a vector for state spying/control/censorship(AML) into people's financial affairs.

The definition of "informal" economy needs to shift back to the "free" economy it used to be.
529  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: O(1) block propagation on: October 21, 2014, 10:34:45 PM
Does this mean that block selection method gets locked-in?

You tell the receiver how the txs in the block were selected.  However, it assumes priority size and fee per kb.

A block that doesn't use the standard transaction selection algorithm is at a disadvantage.  

This could be a good thing, since it would mean more consistency between miners.

I guess if block size is greater than demand for space, then it isn't a big deal, since the default rule is "all known transactions".

Pretty much locked-in by consensus. And the conclusion in bold is important.

IBLT makes the Bitcoin protocol function more closely to how all its users expect it to work. Right now there are several thousand users who expect their transaction(s) to get confirmed in the next block, and thousands of nodes who have a very similar view of those transactions. Usually, miners are good citizens and include many of the pending transactions.

However, a block could be mined where all this consensus is ignored and the new block is full of transactions which the miner has "pulled out of his ass" (real-world business or not) with fees payable to himself, a scenario which makes the existing 1MB limit look like a safety-blanket. Apart from providing PoW security to older blocks, the new block is unhelpful, and many of them together is an attack.

Transactions from the consensus pool are in an IBLT but they are canonically ordered and XOR'd in an offset manner such that a small percentage do not have to be known in advance, but the rest do, because that is the only way to peel them off. This goes way beyond normal data compression because the receivers know most of the contents in advance, hence O(1) block propagation occurs, or at worst O(logn).

The block propagation delay cost of including all transactions will be low, so the incentive improves for miners to rake in as many fees as possible, getting a high percentage of transactions confirmed within the 10 minute average.

A rogue miner gaming IBLT by withholding a new one for a few seconds, and broadcasting his secret/spam transactions first, could be frustrated by requiring 20% of IBLT transactions to be earlier than the mean age of the new block and the previous one.
530  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gavin Andresen Proposes Bitcoin Hard Fork to Address Network Scalability on: October 21, 2014, 03:48:24 AM

So assuming some sort of hard fork will happen here. What timeframe are we looking at?

Ideally the software version which enables scaling should be available a long time before older versions are incompatible, 6 months or even a year, to ensure as many nodes as possible have upgraded before the changes take effect.

So this is still pie in the sky stuff? probably a year off, or something like that?

Yes, but the pie is falling closer to our faces while time is passing and volumes climb steadily. This could have been done in 2012 with 3 years delay, or 2013 with 2 years delay...

A hard-fork, where nearly everyone has upgraded first, is a big fat non-event, like January 2000 after the Y2K changes.
531  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gavin Andresen Proposes Bitcoin Hard Fork to Address Network Scalability on: October 21, 2014, 03:37:13 AM

So assuming some sort of hard fork will happen here. What timeframe are we looking at?

Ideally the software version which enables scaling should be available a long time before older versions are incompatible, 6 months or even a year, to ensure as many nodes as possible have upgraded before the changes take effect.
532  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 21, 2014, 03:24:06 AM
See you all in 2017 or so when things liven up again (probably 2015 tbh).

Are you taking a break from the Wall Observer, lounge, rats nest?
533  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: O(1) block propagation on: October 20, 2014, 10:55:08 PM
Someone has picked up the torch  Smiley

Kalle Rosenbaum has written an IBLT test package in java, utilizing bitcoinj.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2jszdl/encodingdecoding_blocks_in_iblt_experimets_on_o1/

Quote

I've been working on an IBLT written in Java, as well as a project to encode and decode Bitcoin blocks using this IBLT. The main inspiration comes from Gavin Anresens (/u/gavinandresen) excellent writeup on O(1) block propagation, https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/e20c3b5a1d4b97f79ac2.
The projects are called ibltj (https://github.com/kallerosenbaum/ibltj) and bitcoin-iblt (https://github.com/kallerosenbaum/bitcoin-iblt). In bitcoin-iblt I've run some experiments to find a good value size and a good number of hash functions to use. Have a look at the results at https://github.com/kallerosenbaum/bitcoin-iblt/wiki/BlockStatsTest
I'm very interested in discussing this and listen to your comments. I also need some help to specify other tests to perform. I'm thinking it would be nice to have some kind of "Given that there is no more that 100 differing transactions, I need 867 cells of size 270 B to have <0.1% chance that decoding fails.". Any thoughts on this?

The test bench is pretty capable. I can perform tests on arbitrarily large fake blocks constructed from real world transactions. I can modify the following parameters:

Number of transaction in the block
Number of differences between the sender and the receiver, both extra and absent transactions.
Number of hash functions
keySize
valueSize
keyHashSize
Number of cells

534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 20, 2014, 07:13:09 PM
Out of interest: Say you were given the task of designing a portfolio to survive 1000 years, what would it be comprised of?
I don't believe this is a valid question.

We don't have the slightest idea what will be valuable 1000 years from now.

I agree there will be no correct answer until those 1000 years have elapsed, but it's a perfectly valid question, giving insight into how the person answering thinks about wealth stores as long term contenders.

Myself I would stack a portfolio to last 1000 years something like this as a starting point:

50% Precious metals.
30% Bitcoin.
20% items that may be considered valuable antiques by then ( I would have to think more on that one ).

For a portfolio, with a 10 ... 50 year outlook, I would forget the antiques and have 50% Bitcoin, 50% PM.

Land
535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 20, 2014, 07:15:19 AM
I fucking hate this market condition, no fucking chance to chart or anything this. They do whatever they want and we just participate like sheep.

What did we expect, we attracted big moneys attention and not everyone is a bull on bitcoin Cheesy

I don't quite care if bull or bear, just hate this 10$ range trading with zillion fakeouts.

The longer the market stays in a trading range, then the stronger the floor it is putting in. A year ago people would have been wetting themselves seeing a floor put in at $380.  A solid $380 means that $760 is on the cards sooner than later.
536  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gavin Andresen Proposes Bitcoin Hard Fork to Address Network Scalability on: October 20, 2014, 04:46:10 AM
For my business I pay around $10 for a Bitcoin transaction and am happy to do it (else I'd set my bitcoind more normally.)  

Got a poll going and early results are interesting. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=827209.0
So far, $2 is not a popular fee for a transaction, and over half the respondents think transactions should cost 1 cent or less.
537  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Blocksize Economics on: October 19, 2014, 10:45:17 PM
For example with an arbitrarily large MAX_BLOCK_SIZE, a mining group hostile to the success of Bitcoin with 1.1% of the network could feasibly solve 1.45 blocks per day on average.  If they did so with very large blocks, such that fully 1/3 of their blocks were orphaned and was sending 1GB blocks, this could grow the block chain by 1GB per day.

Absolutely, but scaling the block size according to the projected bandwidth growth rate (based upon the recent bandwidth growth rate) means that 1GB blocks are still many years away, mid-2020s. Storage shows phenomenal potential for further growth and durability. http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/jul/17/5d-superman-memory-crystal-heralds-unlimited-lifetime-data-storage

In ten years time the block reward will be 3.125 btc, and the fees market much healthier, such that a dynamic "soft" limit could be introduced, if that is considered needed. You mention doing the right thing for future generations of Bitcoin users. We all want to do the right thing for them, but we have to concede that they will have far more information to make design and scaling decisions. What is important now is to introduce *some* scalability, ideally so that the ecosystem can grow, as much as computing technology (in the hands of a hobbyist or semi-professional bitcoiner) will allow, in the meantime.


538  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Block chain size/storage and slow downloads for new users on: October 19, 2014, 06:58:07 PM
This article says the blockchain download time will be reduced dramatically with the changes mentioned:

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-blockchain-initial-sync-time-dramatically-reduced-headers-first-sync/

Is this true? If so, when will the new Bitcoin software be released?

There must be an error in this article because it says the new version of Bitcoin software will be 0.10. Yet the current version is 0.9.3

The article is correct on the software version. Version numbers are not decimals, the points separate counts of major to minor releases.

0.10 is due in a "few" months. No one knows exactly when yet. When it is tested as much as is practicable  Smiley.

Yes. Sync time should be dramatically improved for all new nodes which use it.
539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 19, 2014, 07:15:56 AM

Yes.

It might be interesting to note that this process started to accelerate when Nixon took the dollar off gold.

Sound money is peoples money.


This is a very interesting chart. It begs the question "Why?" Why has inequality steadily increased?
I think the reason is that in an unbounded monetary system the people who have first use of new money benefit the most. They benefit because the inflationary impact of the new money does not appear immediately. So banks, big business which get priority on loans, and the wealthy who can leverage their assets do so before the inflationary impact occurs. Ordinary people are using the new money after the inflationary impact. For the middle class this is a financial death of a thousand cuts.

The gold standard was weak long before 1971, so the chart reflects this, but the trend goes ballistic in a fully fiat system. Cue Supertramp, because this is the true crime of the century.
540  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Just what is a FAIR fee to send a Bitcoin transaction? on: October 18, 2014, 08:35:36 AM
Whatever the market will allow.

This. Don't want to have others determine how much your fee is? Don't mine, or modify your shit so you don't mine TXes below what you think you should be paid.

Absolutely. I'm a fan of market-driven pricing too, but it is still reasonable to try and find out what the market is thinking, especially as most users just let the default fee get applied by their wallet software. There is not yet an efficient fees market.
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