I was gambling my whole life so the question seems strange to me.  It shouldnt be too much of a shock to the system of anyone whose played normal games before or went to a fun fair as many games resemble some kind of risk reward which is a very similar idea.   Go slow on the gambling amounts, be sure of the game win or lose before risking anything you will miss especially.   Dont ask us, learning is half the fun surely.

42.2k is not far away thats about a weekly average.  If we can average above that I can believe BTC is acting positively and regaining some of the recent losses.      Otherwise I think we're drawn lower for just this moment until we resolve sellers, probably at that lower price  it swings back to favor those who wish to acquire and accumulate more then the profit taking thats been a feature since the recent high.
  It is fair to note we've come a long way, not all sellers appear at the same time now might be the first time people who bought in the teens start to sell or at least rearrange their holdings.   Generally this whole year seems likely to continue to be an opportunity to buy.

ETF arent supposed to run any premium or discount, its very tradable and much more efficient in that way.   I think over time we gain more people involved due to that efficiency, maybe Im a person wanting to hold my capital in BTC for this quarter and I dont want to be trapped in a web of discount and high fees like GBTC used to be like.  The performance from BTC going up disguised some of that but of course BTC fell so people will not forget being trapped like that.
  Its a see-saw situation, imbalance will confuse the market overall we are seeing alot of doji candles as these many orders come into market flow especially from funds previously tied up.   We are just reaching past a small downtrend today but I presume this is something we work out on the weekly bars it will take time to digest all this imbalance.  I still presume some selling perhaps in disappointment but its just the usual hype merry go round not a solid direction indication either way.

In the immortal words of Tony Soprano, you dont S*** where you eat for good reasons.   Dont try to mix oil with water, it doesnt especially work and on general principle gambling while at work should be underlined with heavy caution.   I know some people will do it anyway but since you gamble the money you earn, to compromise one with the other is potentially dangerous and you wont have any money to gamble if the job should be lost by gambling and heavily distracted during work.
   Some people could balance this perhaps but its best to presume you wont or it would develop into a negative not worth it.  Add in the other side which is just general balance of not gambling all the time, take time out to work, rest not gamble too much is massively arguable and good advice imo

I dont disagree overall, the world is attempting to force people into more active investment.    Holding money in a bank is a kind of investment though very passive, historically the bank would in effect invest on your behalf and there was some risk in that.  That might be less true now.
  We have a world with a large bias to debt which has its problems and might one day trip over with economies becoming far more favorable to hard money economics over the current easy money meta.

My main point I would change in OP statement is instead of months, change this to years.   Ideally a person should retain a years savings not this idea of mere months.  If you dont have cash and require it fast short term the cost of that cash required can be very costly. Its better to have larger margins of error, very few people are so perfect as to only require a month or so of spare cash.  All of us can get ill at some point etc.

I tend to overthink things so I would classify my involvement as sometimes negative in waiting too long and timing a trade badly.  Be involved dont over think it but also be cautious in your approach selling is ok too.



So my frame of reference is remembering my first encounter with Bitcoin.    Before I started mining Bitcoin I saw it a few times over the years and never got involved seriously, maybe I can call the mistake not investing enough time and thought to the concept and if I had I would have reached the conclusion sooner.   I wont go over that mistake continually but suffice to say I did eventually decide to be involved years after I could have first started holding BTC as a very new idea reading about it on a Tech forum I was too skeptical by far.
   However more usefully I would say in regards to the future again the world will change alot and peoples attitudes to various assets should be active and well considered, not just once but many times to adjust for all you dont know and just generally how the world will change in future.  We will all do better with an open mind and challenge our first beliefs on any valid investment etc.

Stealing either way has to be paid for and reversed in its betrayal of trust.  The proceeds being used to gamble doesn't negate anything even if it was a win.  If its an adult really you should deal with the matter as if it was theft by anyone, reason being they will just repeat the theft if they dont pay for it.   If its a child at the very least they should repay the value taken, a days work at least and if it was a harsh punishment a weeks work of various tasks that need doing.  If you do any less with a child you are causing future problems because they will go on to steal from almost anyone else if they are prepared to steal from their own family, its a real danger they fall into a cycle of failure if left alone to learn stealing works out fine.

Buy on strengths rather then the hope of ceased weaknesses.   We can go sideways while not really resolving anything, at present I'd put us into a downtrend until proven otherwise.  Reasoning being multiple fronts or questions over momentum and resolution of the selling as OP  mentions.  So since the 8th of Jan its possible to draw in a downtrend that though challenged has not yet been negated fully, wait for that to play out before assuming we can resume upwards.  I think we face multiple hurdles in that respect still.

Cashout enough that all your bills are paid would be the ideal then you have no regrets left to have.   The highest value of money ultimately relates to security and then it becomes about luxury and maybe other aspirations but the greatest cost or worth in money is the money you dont have and absolutely need to continue.  Dont deny yourself the security of knowing everything going forward is paid for, if you are lucky enough to be in that situation increase your standing in that way and gamble or consider the rest as a viable gamble situation to play out however your strategy

Governments and their process have an obvious bias toward politics sometimes its just corruption and failure, laziness in the system that benefits the employees over those who are recipients of the service and this includes central banking I think.   In private business with very large companies I've seen it first hand this also can happen, a large company has a strength to suppress competition and this can lead to similar failure to serve the customer.   However usually private business is undercutting each other but with a natural currency, the national debt the fixed rate forced by central bank its hard for a market to stop failure before its too late.   Im uncertain if BTC can help Africa or any other developing market especially but it should at least offer alternatives to those who have none, its some life line Im just not sure how much.

This is not the style I have become accustomed to.  While Im not complaining, this isnt wildly bullish just yet its still BTC whipping around up and down creating those waves that some people like and throw others off.   4 out of the last 5 weekly bars have been Doji candles which in majority is mostly representative of indecision, so we should view BTC as still spinning its wheels.  Warming up if you like but its not properly moved as it can and does do on occasion so Im yet to be impressed by its style or lack of so far.   But we've only just begun.

Dam only 4 days left (end of today)  time goes fast, I'm still hung over from year start.     So my ideal scenario is we have broke that support of the recent high, snowball or avalanche but either way theres enough time to get to 35k and that's a nice bet if it were possible.     However I will say 35k is an overshoot, I think buying comes in before then but you know like a truck stopping isnt instant its got momentum so we can get to 35k even if maybe I'm thinking of 37k as support.  
  Hitting the nail on the head for end of month price is like throwing axes hoping to split wood, all I hope for is a rough hit so 35k area I'll bet around there.   4 days I'll decide if its small or larger probability depending how we act.


That is the problem yea.  I figure volume is a magnet and where did we trade most often in the past.  37k is a good point with many candles closing there weekly, I could equate that to volume.   BTC being distributed so widely makes it harder to predict but nothing is ever simple 

Iam a bit late voting sorry but its fairly clear as a local top.  A pin shape candle like that is classic top to a pattern not that I normally judge off one day in that manner but it does fit this time.
   We have above and below scenario, I think of it like ice lake (not a fixed scenario but important now) as an analogy.   We were above both a Fib level and 50 day average but below both now, expect weakness till this kind of failure is addressed.   It cant be said to be totally serious, its really just trading value flows in and out obviously with the news you have both pattern on a graph and a reason in stories for people to focus then take profits.

   I guess target 37k for the downside then maybe we can build from there, I dont know it's that neat or not.

Facebook suggests people want to share all their personal details online, Im not sure if gambling stops that being true or not.   Generally its always seemed best to me not to give out your personal details online as its assessible by anyone, by bots by agents such as various hostile states that want to profile and run files on people.   Because computers are so powerful its not a fictional story, its not especially a good idea to feed even more information about your gambling and just general spending habits imo, why should strangers have control of that info.    So yea I'd prefer anonymity based on understanding how information can be harmful, not everyone is friendly towards gambling but there is definitely levels of social gambling openly done where people just want to hang out and play thats fairly normal to imo just online turns data into a commodity.

Such an estimate requires Dollar to half or more in value during that time so thats like 10% or more inflation every year on average.   Not impossible but supposedly thats not on the menu the FED is appearing or believing with various large finance bodies believing they wont allow 10% inflation so often as that between now and 2030.  If there is a major screw up and devaluation in a large amount occurs over this entire decade then Cathie is more then likely correct to make such a large estimate.  
   I mostly go for the more boring scenarios, while BTC gains its too healthy to suppose everything would give way to such a large valuation in a relatively short period of time.   6 years is less time then it takes to setup a large mine or processing plant of various kinds, it might long but the economy has projects longer lasting then this.   Thats relevant because large spending usually relates to bonds and currency stability etc.   If its just the case that BTC will gain so much, that performance makes everything else less attractive to invest in.

The greatest and most genuine long lasting effects do accumulate over time.  What we often note loudly and believe lasts is just hype and froth from speculative moves often using leverage.   Not quite net sum trades but we have to be ready for every move up to equalize and move down just as much resulting in no gain at all because thats how a rollercoaster works.  It is the trick of the fun fair that somehow we are surprised every time by this new and amazing ride but none of it is new besides some news basically we should know better and we dont.   There is a gain but its slower then we'd like, this entire year is the gain most likely Im not sure if all we gain 2024 has already been described in that run up for 48k, I guess more then that.
  ETF is like an extra bit of involvement by the masses, another door open to those that want.

If people aim for 100k the selling will begin before it gets there.   Just getting close will be big, the ATH even if that stood and we were flat in that area for this year and next that is still very positive.  The alternative negative is languishing in the teens, if BTC is fighting multiples of that its very healthy seems like Im not too fussy on where exactly.   I doubt I'd sell all at 100k, to sell I have to need to put it elsewhere which is always a possible.
   If BTC closes out the day here its the 2nd night we remain below the 50 day average in last few days.     So its like a referee counting out the boxer before he calls it over, we dont have to be weak from here but I guess it catches eventually we resolve lower to the next major support level.   Or BTC gets back on its feet and knocks out the doubters

A 20 minute feature on the news about BTC was quite amazing to me like 10 years ago.   That was a sign to sell or at least its a sign the hype or awareness in the market was very full at that point.   We top out when everyone has bought in, considering not everyone can buy and typically people will talk about BTC far more when they do buy then you can pretty much judge the market by the volume of discussion I have to agree on that point.
  Also can flip this idea and really this is the more profitable of the two, perhaps some would say its more risky but if you buy admist the gloom then typically the price is far lower sometimes massively lower then it should be.  In value terms buying into gloom into an atmosphere nobody is bullish or at least not in a way they feel like expressing especially is probably more obvious if anything and easier to do then judge the top and hype.  
 What really marks a top is a double top, so go back to the last ATH and we did quite clearly outline the top prices with the 2nd attempt at a high lower then the first. Descending mountain peaks should set off sirens in your head, a failed attempt to recapture a peak is fairly reliable in marking a bearish movement.    Inversely I would say watch the lows or lowest prices on trend, if the lows are increasing its a hidden positive even if we appear to be going nowhere.   The peak prices are like frothy or water boiling over, its not often so accurate but lows are more certain and tested in their strength and so accuracy.

Sometimes if you bet wrong, then watching is painful.  Some people have to turn it off at that point as the game is ruined for them.   Dont bet too much that you cant walk away from it and just write it off but a bad bet especially if you got something wrong, missed someone is ill or something is frustrating.  Losing isnt fun but the tension of a possible comeback is cool, my advice would be if you dont care about the game without a bet then do not bet in a flippant way especially don't put a lot on a game you wouldn't watch; otherwise as you are closer to a random outcome then a good judgement call  on the game outcome.

Great call then, simple is best despite all the noise it did pretty much act on cue.   A ceiling maintained is bearish but price can resolve through time as well as movement.



That'd be my rough view on weekly bars.  You wouldn't want to step on that pin, owch      So do we resolve to find this pricing as a ceiling and then down to 37k.  37k fits as bottom of a channel and a fib level.
  50 day average is where we are right now but the true measure would be 200 day way down near 33k  both positive moving BTC is doing well sell or not from here.