Bitcoin Forum
May 27, 2024, 09:13:30 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34 35 »
601  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 21, 2013, 11:59:10 AM
Why would you possible want to force the investors to risk an extremely high part, maby even towards 100% of there investment in a single bet for them to have the same expected profit(if one or several large investors would risk extremely high percentages of there capital on a single bet) with hardly any possitive effect out of it ?

first off, nobody is forcing anyone to do anything...

secondly, im not entirely clear on what you mean '100% of there investment in a single bet'.

are you saying that an investor could lose their entire investment in a single bet?
Yes with dooglus ide that people could invest for example 1 000 btc on JD and say they have 99% more 99 000 btc in there local wallet witch they dont have to have, then with that ide if they use it to maximize there exposure, then they can risk 100 % of there actual bankroll(the 1000 btc in this example that they have) that they then gamble with on the investors side and it can be lost on a single bet if some whale would come in and bet large.
Hopefulle Dooglus never introduces such things as it will put presure on investors to raise there risklevels(if others start rasing there's) for them to be able to achive an interest of any significanse.
602  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 21, 2013, 04:26:41 AM

Oh, yes.  That's maybe the answer to how to allow people to risk only 0.1% of their investment without having to micro-manage things.  Except you don't mean "edge", I'm sure.

Change the risk level to 0.1%, but default to 10x leverage (a).  Is that equivalent to 1% risk with 1x (ie. no) leverage (b)?

In (b), investor has 100 BTC, risks 1% per roll.  After losing 1 max bet, investor has 99 BTC and risks 0.99 BTC on next roll.

In (a), investor has 100 BTC, says they have another 900 locally, risks 0.1% of the (100+900) total.  After losing 1 max bet, investor has 99 BTC on site and claims to have 900 "locally".  New (invested+local) = 99+900 = 999, so risks 0.999 on next roll.

Hmm.  They're different.  The amount lost is the same in both cases, but the increased leverage in (a) means that the amount risked goes down less per loss.  It seems there's no longer a way for the guy who wants to risk 1% of his investment per roll to carry on doing so as he was before.  And that's no good.

Why would anyone want to have a risk level at 0,1%, that would probably mean they would have an expected monthly return of somewhere in the region of 0,2-0,5% when things stabalize if you allow people to have a risklevel from 0,1% to 1,0-2,0%


Right.  I'm trying to help a hypothetical potential millionaire investor invest without (a) having to send me his entire bankroll just to risk 1% of it per roll and (b) having to micro-manage the amount he has with me to keep it at a fixed percentage of the total he wants to be invested.

So suppose he has a million coins.  He wants to risk 10k coins per roll, but doesn't trust me to hold a million coins.  Hell, I screwed up withdrawing 1300 to celeste - who knows what else I'm capable of, right?  So he sends me 100k coins and tells me he has 900k more available locally.  I then set about letting him risk 10k per spin, and keep track of his total balance (it goes up and down from 1 million).  The 900k is constant.  It's what he really has in his own cold wallet, presumably.

First if there is a single person sitting at 1 000 000+ BTC at the moment the chance that he/she want to invest that much in a single BTC business would be pretty small.

Second what good would a million BTC from a single investor be to JD, it will only reduce the profit for you and other big investors Dooglus, it's not very likely JD or any other BTC gambling site will be getting bets risking 10 000 BTC anytime soon, thats around a million USD bet at 50%

Third if you allow people to have risklevels of up to 100% with or without potentially "fake" coins that excists or do not excists in there local wallet then all people that don't risk the same high % will get a drastically decreased share of the expected profit(or losses) if one or several large investors risk extremely high levels, up to 100% per bet.

Lets for example then say 1 000 000 invested with or without fakecoins at 100% risk per bet and another 10 000 real coins at 1% risklevel per bet.
If someone in the future then wanting 0,1% risk exposure, they would then only be exposed to around just 1/1000 of what it is now at 1% and would probably be looking at 0,002-0,005% expected monthly interest on there investments

So for different levels of risked per bet it would probably look something like this then:

Risked   compared   expected
per bet  to how       monthly
             it's now      profit
0,1%     1/1000     0,002-0,005%
0,5%     1/200       0,01-0,025%
1%        1/100       0,02-0,05%     
2%        1/50         0,04-0,10%
5%        1/20         0,10-0,25%
10%      1/10         0,20-0,50%
20%      1/5           0,40-1,00%
50%      1/2           1,00-2,50%
100%    1/1           2,00-5,00%

Is this really how you like to have it, at the moment people are looking at an expected profit at around 15% a month on there investment in JD and they only risk 1% per bet.
Why would you possible want to force the investors to risk an extremely high part, maby even towards 100% of there investment in a single bet for them to have the same expected profit(if one or several large investors would risk extremely high percentages of there capital on a single bet) with hardly any possitive effect out of it ?

If then some gambler with a real bankroll of a few hundred thousend coins comes in, they could with very high likelyhood wipe out those that has risked 100% with there "fakecoins" and in reallity only have 10 000 BTC(that they invested) but is represented as 1 000 000 BTC for a 100% real risklevel.

Even if investors woun't go to such extreme levels, if just some big investors raise there risklevel significant, all other investors that want to keep there risklevel at 1% will suffer a lot from it unless those that risk to much will get busted.
603  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 20, 2013, 09:53:31 PM
Congratulations on passing 500 000 BTC in bets in almost exactly 1 months time
604  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 20, 2013, 08:35:57 PM
What is to stop someone from claiming 10,000 coins are in local storage but are 'invested' to get more leverage on the site?

A signed message from an address containing the coins?

Furthermore, what system is in place to ensure that the coins remain in that address? 

I think you're missing the point.  I don't care if they really have the coins they claim to have or not.  I let them risk 1% of their total claimed amount, until the coins I have control of from them are less than 1% of the total they claim.  Then I force-divest them.

It could be that they have in fact invested all their coins, and the other 99% in the "local" storage are a lie.  That just means that they're risking 100% of their coins per roll, and will go bust when the first max bet wins.

I don't think this passes any extra risk onto other investors.  It is somewhat like trading on margin, but with the important difference that there's no risk of slippage when I have to "liquidate" their position.  I just remove them from the bankroll.

The effect I'm looking for is a way that people can risk more than 1% of what they've sent me without making the calculations too complex.  I think this "fractional reserve" idea does it.  Please don't just react to the fractional reserve concept at a gut level.  I don't need to be holding all the coins you claim to be risking 1% of (and I don't even care whether you have them either), so long as I always make sure I have access to all the coins you're actually risking per roll.

This thing you suggest is totally absurd, that you would let people take a gamble(with 100% of there investment on the site at risk on each bet) for it to go there way and if it does they will profit up to 100 times more then the a "real investor" that only gets 1% of the site's profit if it goes the right way.

It's more or less setup to screw people that want a resonable risk/reward as some will claim to have 100 times more than they have then and will take 100 times more of the profit, than the investors that dont lie will only get 1/100 of what they should have gotten, or they can expect a return in the region of 0,02%-0,05% interest if that thing you suggest will become popular.
Also you will get some very unhappy investors that will take the gamble and risk way to high amount of there bankroll and end up unlucky enouth to go broke on the investors side.

Also i trust that you run a legit business here dooglus but the fact that you even suggests such an alternative looks very suspicious as it could make manipulations 100 times more profitable for you, how easy woulden't it be for you to pick a nice entry and exit point for an investment and use some other account to make a huge fake swing in the site's profit, and take almost 100% of the profit when the site goes up and then divest and take 0% of the site's loss. No dooglus this ide is totally wrong way to go i would say.
605  Economy / Gambling / Re: No one can beat the house, but I won... on: July 20, 2013, 08:07:41 PM
Pretty amazing results...


I guess the x and y on that picture is 4000 BTC up then at around 27500 bets, witch would mean less than 1,6% up if nakowa/cici/celeste has made over 50% of the sites wagered btc like he said before.
But thats then missing the loss of 1300 btc, so in reallity he's up around 2700 btc, <1,08% then, still way better than epected(2 % better or so) after maby 30 000 bets in total.
606  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] BTCJam - Peer to Peer Bitcoin Lending on: July 20, 2013, 04:54:06 PM
There needs to be added an option to define what persons that you yourself find trustwhorty so you in the filter for loans that is offereed can have only loans from those people on your "green" list shown.

Also in the stat field there is really a lot more to ask from it, as of now it shown

"Stats
Active Loans
    836
Open Listings
    67
Loans Funded
    ฿ 15740.51
Repaid Loans
    1171 "

How about adding a couple of more things and make the one you have more informative, by adding loans that are late, and loans that has defalulted and for loans funded not just show BTC amount but for all stats show the number of them and the BTC amount, so something more in the line of:

"Stats
Open Listings
        67      2 587.50 ฿

Loans Funded
    3 419    15 740.51 ฿
================
Active Loans
       836     6 857.50 ฿

Repaid Loans
     1 171    5 236.13 ฿
Late loans
        499    1 145.37 ฿
Defaulted Loans
        913    2 501.51 ฿

To give Investors and borrowers a more whole and true picture of things.

607  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] BTCJam - Peer to Peer Bitcoin Lending on: July 20, 2013, 04:06:38 PM
Tulkas i would like a a little explanation of how loans tied to MtGoxUSD works, no information avaliable in the fact about them, the only thing one can find about it is by holding the mouse over MtGoxUSD and then this appeares:
"This listing has its amount linked to the bitcoin exchange rate for MtGoxUSD. The payment size in bitcoin will fluctuate over time following the exchange rate for MtGoxUSD."

Lets say someone loans out 0,1 btc with a interestrate of  1%, when he will be paid back will the interest amount be affected by changes in btc/usd price or the whole amount ?
If mtgox usd/btc is down by 10% for example when the loan is paid back what will people then get back 0,1+0,001*0,9= 0,10009 btc (0,9% interest) or will he loose on loaning the money out and only get back 0,101*0,9=0,0909 btc(-9,1% interest), hardly a great deal for the one loaning the money out then if that is the case, better to just trade themself on the market then.....
608  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 20, 2013, 03:36:12 PM
I dreamed last night there was a litecoin version of just-dice and I took .01ltc up to 200,000ltc. was it a premonition? is there a litecoin version on the todo list?
I think it's best for JD to concentrate on one thing to start with, a dice site with betting in BTC and do that good for a long period. it's way to early to increase risks by adding another currency(LTC for example) to bet in, you would need a large housecapital in litecoins to for that or the site's investors/dooglus would be in severe risk for what market fluctuations in the BTC/LTC price can cause.

If people want to bet with there litecoins, it's easy for them to change them to BTC at btc-e, vircurex, or some other exchange like that. Also the volume one can expect from gambling in litecoin is nowhere near the volumes/values for BTC so one would increase risks for very little benefit by adding other currencys like LTC i think.
609  Economy / Gambling / Re: No one can beat the house, but I won... on: July 20, 2013, 02:19:32 PM
I'm nakowa (other names used: cici, celeste, and now towtoad).

I've been talked about a lot in the thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.0

Perhaps this the most shocking play before I stop betting big:



But how? I'll tell you all in the near future...

High bets but not very shocking play i would say, +26/-18 times 111 btc in the sequence you show, 15 wins 10 losses.
A loosing sequence of 7 bets in a row followed by 10 wins in a row. Whats your point, at 50% 10 wins in a row should happen every 1024 bets you make, is it the fact that it happened just after a relatively long sequnce of losses this time that you think is special ?
7 losses in a row is 1 in 128 to happen, so 7 losses followed by 10 wins should happen once over a sequense of 132 072 bets on avg, but there is nothing that say you can't have such a event much earlier than that or much later...
610  Economy / Gambling / Re: No one can beat the house, but I won... on: July 20, 2013, 02:01:03 PM
I'm nakowa (other names used: cici, celeste, and now towtoad).

I've been talked about a lot in the thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.0

Perhaps this the most shocking play before I stop betting big:

But how? I'll tell you all in the near future...

Excuse the skepticism, but how do we know you really are who you say you are.

The screenshot you used had already been posted in the other thread.
Username (31791) <celeste> on JD witch is the real nakowa/cici/celeste mentioned in the chat at JD that he made posts under this towtoad name here.
611  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 20, 2013, 01:05:07 PM
The ide with variable size of the risked amount per bet woun't work very well unless the site will stabalize on a very high avg daily volume of bets compared to the invested amount and that is highly unlikely that that will be the case as invested amounts in the long run will adjust to the betvolumes and settle on a level where people feels the risk/revard is decent.

If you implement something like that where people will be able to choose a risklevel per bet in 0,1%-2,0% for example, then people will be forsed to accept a higher risk than there comfortable with to be able to expect a decent yearly return on there investments, if someone witch only want 0,1% risked per bet, then they would likely be looking at worse expected return compared to basically "risk free" investments that dont have a chance of beeing worth less than when they invested when they sometime in the future want to withdraw funds. It will likely end up that the invested amount in relation to the avg bet volume will force people to risk even more than 1,0% per bet to get a decent return if some large investors will go for max risk.

Before the nakowa/cici/celese entered the scene for example, even at 1% risked per bet like it's been sofar, the investors was "only" to expect something like 3,12% profit, witch one can compare to some basically "riskfree" investments out there that is at around 2,0% monthly return.
So it may be very likely that someone that wants to only risk 0,1% per bet may expect something like a profit in the 0,2-0,5% range when bet volumes and invested amount will settle in a couple of months time if you were to introduce varable risked per bet levels of 0,1-1,0% or even 0,1% to 2,0% or something like that.
612  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 19, 2013, 10:57:46 AM

Your right dooglus, but even if a particular whale never gives back his winnings the word will get out that a particular casino treats whales really well and here is the magic sauce: They attract a lot more whales. Once you have hundreds of whales playing every year it doesn't matter if some never ever give back their winnings, because now you have enough players of that size that the house edge will command more presence.

The problem we have is our most massive whale with around 50% of the entire bankroll of the house is good, he plays until he is up and if he goes down he has enough money to return. Remember when celeste first tried going small with a 600 bitcoin bankroll he lost it all. He has so much bitcoin it gives him so much chance to come back and win. Sure if celeste plays everyday we might get his bankroll, but he might get ours to.

For the house to really win, we need many whales coming to the site and playing all the time. But there are very few celeste sized whales out there. Remember vinka lost 700 bitcoin, maybe if he had another 10,000 stashed away he could come back and at least try to win it. If vinka only had another 500 bitcoin left he might say no, thats going to far I don't want to lose it all.
There is a flaw in this reasoning, there is no way he can guarantee that he will ever be up in a single session or overall, no matter how big bankroll he has, the way he plays should rather make the chance that he ends up down way bigger than it have to be.
Given that there isn't any flaw in the randomness this whale should be a goldmine for JD. What is it 3 big loosing sessions he has had sofar, 400 BTC, 600 BTC and 1300 BTC(even thou the investors haven't got credit for that one yet), next time he looses it could very well be in the several thousend BTC region.

Given that there is now flaw in the randomness Celest/cici/nakowa's strategy is pretty bad i would say and he/she really should have lost way more than he/she has sofar and should be way down in the red by several thousand BTC instead of up 2700 BTC or so sofar...

613  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Cryptostocks - BTC,DVC,LTC denominated Stock Exchange/Crowdfunding Platform on: July 18, 2013, 10:09:49 PM
Can we get the fee for withdrawing LTC & DVC down to something reasonable? 5LTC & 50DVC to withdraw funds is entirely too much with all the gains vs fiat currencies. These are only .1LTC and 10DVC on Vircurex.
Your OP here about cryptostocks you cliams there is
" - Low fees:
      0 fee on coin withdrawals"
for withdrawals on coins from cryptostocks, wich is simply not true.
I saw that you reduced the fee on vircurex for BTC withdrawals to 0,002 btc, but still you haven't lowered or removed the fee on Cryptostocks.
You charge 0.01 BTC/0.1LTC/25DVC at the moment. The withdrawal fee for BTC is 100 times the standard networks fee if there even is any fee on the transaction, usually you dont have to pay any fees on BTC+ sized transations at all....
Why do you still charge around 1 USD for each BTC withdrawal people make, 100 times or more than what it costs you to send them there coins ?
614  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 18, 2013, 09:58:19 AM
Negative balance in your account is because dooglus removed 1300 btc of losses celeste did from the database and you probably withdraw funds between the time celeste lost them and dooglus removed those bets. The 1300 btc celeste had already withdrawn, but by misstake dooglus left them in celestes accout and celeste then bet with those and lost those 1300, later on dooglus choose not to recover those 1300 from celeste the next couple of times he/she has been in so investors and dooglus himself is in total 1300 btc worse at the moment than if celeste did pay properly for his losses.

I was not invested at the time for this mess by the way, i removed my investment directly when i saw nakowa's increadibly luck early on at some high bets that he maby just out of the blue, it looked way to suspicious i think and i divested and withdraw the funds i had at JD from the site.
615  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 18, 2013, 08:50:17 AM
dooglus, I've thought of a new business venture for you - catering to risk-averse investors (1btc max bet, 5% house edge).

I've even thought of a name for it:


"Just-Mice"  Grin
5% edge... guess what, Dragons.tl  (Dragons Tale) is already doing it!
5% edge is only for level 0-2 players with no mentors in DT. DT effectively have less then 2,85%(in reallity even closer to 2% and going towards 1,5% or less in edge in the future...) as there is players up to 2,15% in rakeback already and the site gives back some of the houseedge in the form of EV+ games and tournaments and so.
616  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 17, 2013, 11:41:13 PM
maybe im reading it wrong, but why is the number for the largest investor the same for the last 2 weeks?

7614.39434840

the largest investor just happens to like that number?

Where can you see that?
OP and i guess it must be a typo or it's the invested amount at the time of investment and not what the investment is worth on the 7 july and 14 july.
The value 575.00000000 also exists both dates for example
617  Other / Archival / Re: closed on: July 17, 2013, 10:41:37 AM
BTC withdrawal fees reduced to 0.002 BTC.
Oh thats a step im the right direction at least then Kumala, can you now explain why your other project Cryptostocks still have 0,01 BTC in withdrawal fee and why that hasen't been lowed to, when will you lower that fee ?

Why do you chage around a USD in fee for BTCwithdrawals from cryptostocks when the networks cost for most withdrawals should be 0 or in worst case for the few people that sends really small amounts at max 0.0001 BTC(1 US cent) in fee, you charge people at least 100 times to much in fees at BTCwithdrawals at cryptisocks

Also in the OP of your announcement for cryptostocks there is a lie
" - Low fees:
      0 fee on coin withdrawals"
On withdrawals you charge a fee 0f 0.01 BTC/0.1 LTC/25.0 DVC at the moment at cryptostocks.

So are you going to credit those accounts at cryptostocks that you have charged a fee even thou you claim to not have any fees for withdrawing on cryptostocks ?
Are you going to fix the false statement in the OP for Cryptostocks ?
618  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 16, 2013, 10:55:14 AM
He did it and fucked me. Now my gambling balance is gone, 2 BTC.
My bets were ALL legit, dooglus, so, re-do them please

In the period that celeste was playing, there were 11 invest/divest events, dividing his 147 bets into 12 sections.  For each section I calculated his net profit/loss, and calculated each investor's share of that.  I summed that over each of the 12 sections.

The result in your case was that you profited 1.83299028 BTC from the 1300 BTC loss.

Your balance at the time of the rollback was 1.81377284, not enough to withdraw the 1.83299028, so I divested the difference of 0.01921744 BTC.

That's probably the wrong way to do it - I should have divested the full 1.83299028 and withdrawn that, leaving your starting balance untouched.  But I didn't.

If you divest 1.81377284 now, you'll have the same balance as you did before the rollback.  I didn't cancel any of *your* bets.  I just took the rollback funds mostly from your balance rather than divesting it.

Edit: here are the numbers re. your investment before and after the rollback:

before, balance: 1.81377284
   share: 0.0014302363919835065
   purse: 26189.70369142
   invested: 37.45746731

 after, balance: 0.0
    share: 0.001502964987472036
   purse: 24909.59549078001
   invested: 37.43824987

You'll see that the different in invested before and invested after is the same as the different between your starting balance and the profit you made from the rolled-back bets.

Did he Roll back all bets, even those others have done back to the point celeste started betting with the 1300 BTC, not just removed celestes bets with the 1300 btc that wasen't his/hers to bet with ?
Well that is very wrong then in that case.

I rolled back just the 1300 BTC worth of bets from celeste's account.
Sounds correct then, maby psy missunderstood what had happened in his account then.
619  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 16, 2013, 10:11:16 AM
He's rolling it back.

He did it and fucked me. Now my gambling balance is gone, 2 BTC.
My bets were ALL legit, dooglus, so, re-do them please
Did he Roll back all bets, even those others have done back to the point celeste started betting with the 1300 BTC, not just removed celestes bets with the 1300 btc that wasen't his/hers to bet with ?
Well that is very wrong then in that case.
620  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 16, 2013, 08:42:09 AM
Well good you sorted things out dooglus one way or another. Was the rollback 1180 BTC or 1300 BTC as the celeste accout paid you 120 of the 1300 ?

I had already credited the 120 to the celeste account, after debiting the 1300 coins from it (after they had emptied the account; that's the debit I didn't do at the time of withdrawal).  So the balance was -1180.  Now that I've credited the 1300 coins back to celeste (rolling back the 1300 coins lost in fake bets), the balance stands at 120 BTC.

The fake bets amounted to slightly over 1300 BTC, and that's what I rolled back.
Well this part is a little strange thou, i can understand that the site wants a big player like this to come back and bet more(however heavy swings that will cause the site thou).
But as long as celeste/cici/nakowa can't prove that it wasen't he/she that made the bets that person still was the one that  betted the 1300 BTC that wasen't his/her's and owe the site and it's investors those 1300 BTC that he/she lost and of witch he/she sofar has paid off 120 of the dept of 1300. When/if celeste/cici/nakowa pays back the rest the bets or the site gets those 1180 BTC back the legal way, then the actions those bets caused should be put back in place again, basically around 190 btc in total to you dooglus and the other around 1110BTC in total back to those that had investments during that time of the betting.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34 35 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!