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601  Economy / Speculation / Re: Trendon Shavers was arrested in his home in Texas today, November 6. 2014. on: November 09, 2014, 12:11:27 PM
LOL this dude was a scammer on this forum if I'm correct Smiley

1% compounding daily interest. Was great for those who got in early and got out before it collapsed  Cheesy

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0

Pity the first post has been edited because it gave the full details of the scheme

Doesn't matter, I called it out at the second post after OP (I haven't edited once) and the idiots in this forum still participated in the scam. Everybody knew it was a ponzi scheme and participated because of it, and that's why I lost pretty much all respect for this community here.
602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 07, 2014, 12:22:31 PM
I got good feeling about this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McbCwSW2moo#t=0m19s
603  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: bfl a scam? on: November 04, 2014, 09:42:34 PM
Bumping

I'm requesting official scammer tagging of all forum accounts associated to BFL once they are convicted.

604  Economy / Speculation / Re: Court Order: BFL to transfer Bitcoins to Court on: November 04, 2014, 08:59:27 PM
lol if there happens to be another exchange "hack" while that happens.
605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 04, 2014, 08:55:17 PM
I agree about that; however, there are various practices, such as fractional reserve banking, that exist in various financial circles that have become acceptable means upon which to transact - and sometimes there can exist some murkiness regarding whether any laws are being violated, especially in an industry (BTC space) that remains largely unregulated.

First they laugh at you, then they send in the FEDs, then you are in jail.
606  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 04, 2014, 10:10:54 AM


I have no words.

Awesome. Pure gold right here boyz.

Top right -> actual Buttcoin
607  Other / Off-topic / Re: Flaw in New ‘Secure’ VISA Credit Cards Lets Hackers Steal $1M Per Card on: November 04, 2014, 12:29:44 AM
laff, watch this thread becoming yet another attempt at pumping saggy butts.
608  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are Altcoins ruining the price of Bitcoin? on: November 04, 2014, 12:26:24 AM
imo its scammers dropping coins making BTC down not alts.

There are no scammers in Bitcoin by definition, just free market businesses.
609  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 03, 2014, 01:31:21 PM
I miss rpietila.

he was funny too.

what happend to him? no more coins?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285771.msg8655491#msg8655491
610  Economy / Speculation / Re: Take a step back. Do the right calculations. Then stop panicking. on: October 30, 2014, 07:00:06 PM
By price (and tx volume) movement you mean rate of change, or just absolute price? And I'm not sure I understand what you mean by 'scaled so they sum up to the same area'. You mean scaled so they initially sum up?

I'm wondering if this is similar to an observation I also made: network growth seems to have slowed down, while price seems to have continued growing as fast before (at least until recently).
Just the absolute price, not rate of change, I meant the price over time. The scaling is just the sum of all usd transaction value ticks divided by the sum of all price ticks over a two year period. (made with blockchain.info csv and libreoffice). The bright red areas and the bright blue areas should contain the same amount of pixels.

Yes I think that is related to your observation, how I interpret it is that during the last months people have hoarded bitcoins rather than spent them. This may be caused buy the declining price as well but I the relationship is probably more complex than that. Case in point is hoarding doesn't contribute to bullish price action, it just dampens bearish price action.
611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Take a step back. Do the right calculations. Then stop panicking. on: October 30, 2014, 06:19:41 PM
Yeah that's the potential market cap based upon fixed supply of 21mil Bitcoins vs. current market cap based upon the supply of total mined Bitcoins argument. Both camps have some points but neither is a good measure of economic value imo.

I'd like to propose the total USD transaction value as an alternative, and while this is not inflation corrected we aren't yet at a timespan where that matters much.
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=


All things considered $300 per Bitcoin is still pretty good.

Good point, but: USD tx volume is more of an economic, i.e. fundamental metric. I specifically set out to look at the market valuation.

Market cap isn't really such a bad proxy for that... I'd argue that the biggest counter argument against using total_coins*price is that 'all mined' is not identical to 'all in use or being traded'. On the other hand, mining is a huge price factor, I'm sure everyone agrees. And the market cap definition based on total coins /does/ account for that. So perhaps the absolute mcap numbers are off, but the relative change should be reasonably well motivated...

Reason: there were 8 million new coins created out of thin air in the last 3+ years, and the market had to absorb them somehow (even if they are hoarded, at the time of their creation, their value was based on market value per unit, so someone who puts $1000 worth of coins into cold storage is effectively keeping that value in Bitcoin). Mcap does account for that, even if some initial number of coins is out of circulation/trading.

Well, if you include all Bitcoins (newly mined, hoarded, spent) by definition, yes but then the market price times issued coins becomes the only correct metric, there isn't even any use for a moving average if you do that.

But have a look at this chart:


It's the past two years of price movement and USD transaction volume movement scaled so they both sum up to the same area.
During the run-up the scaled transaction volume was more or less consistently above the price, that changed after the last ATH. I'm not going as far as saying it's the reason for the bear market, but it's certainly interesting.
612  Economy / Speculation / Re: Take a step back. Do the right calculations. Then stop panicking. on: October 30, 2014, 01:42:28 PM
Yeah that's the potential market cap based upon fixed supply of 21mil Bitcoins vs. current market cap based upon the supply of total mined Bitcoins argument. Both camps have some points but neither is a good measure of economic value imo.

I'd like to propose the total USD transaction value as an alternative, and while this is not inflation corrected we aren't yet at a timespan where that matters much.
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=


All things considered $300 per Bitcoin is still pretty good.
613  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 10:09:22 PM
I wonder what would happen to the gold mining companies if they tried 'hodling' their gold until it went to the moon...

gold mining companies do not have other revenue stream
Right there are totally no gold mines on the stock exchange. Cryptocurrency miners on the other hand......
614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 27, 2014, 10:05:53 PM

Anything on requiring auditing yet? We're in-between exchange fuckups at the moment so it would be best to have that in place before the next one happens.
615  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 01:02:19 AM
Not really a counter, just this: It's possible that nobody who is starting mining now breaks even, even with cheap or stolen electricity. (If you'll assume a constant btc price, free electricity and >2% periodic difficulty increase for instance no consumer miner makes money ever)
In that sense Bitcoin mining is a gamble in it's own and so larger mining farms aren't necessarily more risk-aware.

This is not the case, it certainly is still doable to mine at profit, even at current price

With a theoretical ROI of over a year which is far from certain. If the price tanks even further I'd even say that most of these farms gonna be out of business a year from now.
616  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 12:48:33 AM
I've already tried to make this same point multiple times in this thread, but it just seems to make the naysayers more stubborn. These mega-mining farms are working to devour their competition while raking in the dough. They're not delusional hodlers who are betting on BTC going to the moon in 10 years or whatever. There's profits to be taken right now, and these people are ready to milk this cash cow dry.


Yeah i'm yet to hear a valid counter point to this. Although i don't see them as evil, just part of the ecosystem/capitalism. Hope the halving and a risk of a hard fork if they get out of control would keep them in check.

Not really a counter, just this: It's possible that nobody who is starting mining now breaks even, even with cheap or stolen electricity. (If you'll assume a constant btc price, free electricity and >2% periodic difficulty increase for instance no consumer miner makes money ever)
In that sense Bitcoin mining is a gamble in it's own and so larger mining farms aren't necessarily more risk-aware.

I think we'll see a few weeks where mining costs more in electricity alone some time in the coming months like we did in 2011.
617  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 26, 2014, 06:08:10 PM
Larger and larger mining farms are not what's increasing selling pressure. To the contrary, the larger the farm the cheaper the electricity and the cheaper the hardware to better the operating margin becomes.
A high operating margin gives miners the option to retain more of the mined Bitcoins while a low operating margin forces the miner to sell or at least get more capital by other means to pay bills.
618  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 18, 2014, 12:54:51 PM

Speculative statement "I think in November" becomes a concrete date.
619  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Official Bitcoin Goes Mainstream Starter Thread...or...just your opinions on: October 17, 2014, 04:14:09 PM
Bitcoin won't go mainstream for a generation or two. People don't value freedomThe Libertarian Version Of Freedom™ enough... yet.
True, but also
FIXED
620  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market cap of Bitcoin sure is tiny...just sayin' on: October 17, 2014, 04:02:02 PM
There's nothing wrong with that reasoning. Financial markets aren't built on much more than delusions.

Not by that merit, because it's kind of arbitrary. You can argue that the Bitcoin market cap could be higher based on that or even that it should be higher based upon some rational use case, but not that it should be higher based upon the Dr. Evil "One Million Dollars" method of valuation.
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