1. Bitcoin is an equity, not a consumer good. There are other sellers besides miners who hold 16,000,000 coins.
2. The mining cost is a variable which can go to 0.
3. Miners can and will sell at a loss to cover equipment costs or if they have a negative outlook.
That is what i am trying to tell :-) It is just so many hooked up with this myth that mining costs somehow influence bitcoin prices. They are not. Don't be stupid. There is a major difference between selling at a 'small' loss (i.e., just in the red), vs. selling for nothing. Miner costs absolutely put a floor on what miners will be willing to sell coins on the market. Just ask gold miners or oil producers how far they are willing to sell below production costs, and for how long. OK, let's say you're a miner, and it costs you $1,000 to mine 1BTC, on the average. 1. Miners try to sell coins for $1,000 to cover their costs. 2. No one buys. 3 ? ? ? Wat do? A: They start turning off mining rigs. Hashrate falls. Just like Satoshi's model predicts. Then an equilibrium on mining production is found vs. demand = exchange rate. |
|
|
|
1. Bitcoin is an equity, not a consumer good. There are other sellers besides miners who hold 16,000,000 coins.
2. The mining cost is a variable which can go to 0.
3. Miners can and will sell at a loss to cover equipment costs or if they have a negative outlook.
That is what i am trying to tell :-) It is just so many hooked up with this myth that mining costs somehow influence bitcoin prices. They are not. Don't be stupid. There is a major difference between selling at a 'small' loss (i.e., just in the red), vs. selling for nothing. Mining costs absolutely do put a floor on what miners will be willing to sell coins on the market. The floor was around 200 just last fall, and was tested multiple times. Now hashrate has risen significantly since then. Just ask gold miners or oil producers how far they are willing to sell below production costs, and for how long. |
|
|
|
I think a few years ago, you can find a post in this thread from me saying something like "well wake me up when we get back to 600" or some such. Well...  |
|
|
|
You place your short entry any other time than when the whales are getting ready to dump, and the exchanges will take your money off you. Unless you are willing to go balls to the wall and not set a stop loss.....Last time I done that, I ended up losing $3500.
LOL, no wonder you're a Bitcoin hatred quote generator. Every trade must feel like PTSD when a WW2 vet goes to a bowling alley and hears a loud noise and thinks he's been shelled by the Germans. 2.5 years ago he was whining about holding onto a single bitcoin... at $800/per. And now he wants us to believe that he has enough trading money to lose $3500? Hmmm, something doesn't quite add up... |
|
|
|
|
Mat's an idiot, because he did call the $200 bottom (correctly), but then refused to just buy like crazy at that level and just hodl until now.
And then if he had, he would have chumped out and sold at the first small pump that came along, and never re-bought. The true rally is probably a few years off still.
This is why he'll never be a true "investor", only a constantly losing day trader. But as they say, "A fool and his money..."
|
|
|
|
Is it time to short ETH yet?  |
|
|
|
|
You guys are all wrong, it's clearly ETH getting dumped for BTC. Go look.
|
|
|
|
If the Bitcoin exchange rate roughly doubles every 3 years due to halving (and hashrate rises in lockstep) and continues to do so for the next two decades, then its ROI rate will literally spank *every* other known investment in the world today that's been around for at least 7+ years or longer.
But of course the 'get rich quick' crowd won't or refuse to believe it, and will gladly part ways with their money on other scams and too-good-to-be-true "investments".
Conversely, if ETH exchange rate ...goes up by 1600%, what's the word I'm looking for? watevs, if ETH exchange rate increases roughly 16-fold every 5 months, and continues to do so for the next two decades, then its ROI rate will literally spank *every* other known investment in the world today that's been around for at least 7+ years or longer. My stupid hypothetical more profitable than your stupid hypothetical. I win. brb, ether. ETH hasn't been around for 7+ years yet. In fact let's talk in just 12 months, when I'm sure the ETH price will be MUCH MUCH lower than it is right now. Many orders of magnitude lower in fact. Because ETH = SCAM. And ETH isn't even mined, it's premined crap. So no mining support. At all. Soon to be cast in the waste bin along with the others (i.e., NXT, Ripple, etc.) |
|
|
|
|
If the Bitcoin exchange rate roughly doubles every 3 years due to halving (and mining hashrate rises in lockstep) and continues to do so for the next two decades, then its ROI rate will literally spank *every* other known investment in the world today that's been around for at least 7+ years or longer.
But of course the 'get rich quick' crowd won't or refuse to believe it, and will gladly part ways with their money on other scams and too-good-to-be-true "investments".
They will lose. Badly.
|
|
|
|
|
Wow, great job r0ach!
You created a 'honey pot' thread, and just like flies to honey, attracted at least 6-7 of the paid shills/trolls known to troll frequently in the Speculation sub.
They all couldn't resist coming in here and trying to smash you down, and thus revealed themselves in the process. HAHA!
ETH *is* a scam, and it will all end in tears. Any fool that invests in that premined crap deserves to go cry in the corner of shame over their losses along with the Ripple, NXT, and Darkcoin idiots.
|
|
|
|
Too little, too late. It'll have as much impact as the Gemini exchange launch ( read: zero) |
|
|
|
In the early days of Unix, there was a several spinoff flavors being maintained by groups of Elitist Developers, each with their own core kernels, and each flavor's camp continued with their mantra that they were maintaining their source code base aligned strictly to the needs of the masses, not catering/bowing down to business needs/ further centralization, that their kernel was "purest form of Open Source", yadda yadda yadda.
So guess which implementation/flavor eventually won the long term battle? Yep, RedHat Linux. ONE IMPLEMENTATION. ORIENTED TO BUSINESS NEEDS, NOT STRICTLY AVERAGE JOE ELITISM.
Why? Because Business Needs > Average Joe needs. (Sad but true, but we need both to work together)
(Wasn't the whole point of Bitcoin to spend it on Merchant (ie., BUSINESS) goods and services? Without Merchant adoption of a fast, scale-able monetary solution with no middleman needed, Bitcoin loses its main core appeal )
And where are many of those original elitist Unix/Linux implementations now? Relegated to the dustbin of History.
Moral of the story:
The Bitcoin core developers better wake the fk up, grow the fk up, and start working with those in touch with global business needs. Or they will eventually (and very quickly) find themselves in the dustbin of Bitcoin History.
so you want a bitcoin microsoft and facebook corporation like to take over bitcoin? sry not happening. but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps. Stupid response is stupid. Of course I want Microsoft and Facebook to EMBRACE, PROMOTE, and USE an open implementation of Bitcoin. Just like I want all the other global merchant/commercial/service industries to do the same. That *was* the original long term vision/goal. And you don't? I guess you'd prefer just a few centralized Chinese miners, Blockstream, and a few elitist derpy neck-bearded Average Joes to pass a few btc back and forth for drugs and gambling purposes. And that's it.  |
|
|
|
|
In the early days of Unix, there was a several spinoff flavors being maintained by groups of Elitist Developers, each with their own core kernels, and each flavor's camp continued with their mantra that they were maintaining their source code base aligned strictly to the needs of the masses, not catering/bowing down to business needs/ further centralization, that their kernel was "purest form of Open Source", yadda yadda yadda.
So guess which implementation/flavor eventually won the long term battle? Yep, RedHat Linux. ONE IMPLEMENTATION. ORIENTED TO BUSINESS NEEDS, NOT STRICTLY AVERAGE JOE ELITISM.
Why? Because Business Needs > Average Joe needs. (Sad but true, but we need both to work together)
(Wasn't the whole point of Bitcoin to spend it on Merchant (ie., BUSINESS) goods and services? Without Merchant adoption of a fast, scale-able monetary solution with no middleman needed, Bitcoin loses its main core appeal )
And where are many of those original elitist Unix/Linux implementations now? Relegated to the dustbin of History.
Moral of the story:
The Bitcoin core developers better wake the fk up, grow the fk up, and start working with those in touch with global business needs. Or they will eventually (and very quickly) find themselves in the dustbin of Bitcoin History.
|
|
|
|
|
So I don't get... what's so special about $460 (er... $459.999999) ?
|
|
|
|
Interest rate hike is bullish for Bitcoin. All excess liquidity from 0% interest went to stock buybacks creating a bubble in that market. It did not create a bubble in Bitcoin. Bitcoin was in a bear market the entire time from Gox.
Stocks imploding when liquidity is removed means investors have to leave that market and go to a new one to try and increase or preserve their wealth. They aren't going to put everything in a bank and make nothing while also having faith in banks at an all time low.
Totally agree. Not to mention, global investors have bubbled and exhausted nearly every type of market out there (US stock, Chinese stock, real estate, commodities, PMs, etc.), all while bitcoin was bear trending. They'll all be looking for a viable alternate market to trade in next year. |
|
|
|
It's unlikely the Fed will hike rates: the world is addicted to cheap credit now and the restrictive monetary policy would send the global GDP to oblivion.
You may be right, but I give it a 51% chance that they will hike 1/8-1/4%. Yellen knows that Jawboning only works so long before we stop believing her, so she might have to give it a little bump to maintain her credibility. She has said over and over that rates need to normalize and if she KNOWS that if markets get too addicted to cheap credit that they will never be able to normalize, because the crash would be catastrophic. Fuck, I don't know. We'll see. It's gonna be something. The U.S. market opened today with a gap up. It's possible (and with insider trading, likely) that an interest rate hike has already been priced in to the U.S. market. If true, then HNW traders are going to have fun short squeezing the shit out of those who were counting on a massive drop. At least for a couple days or more. But then the market could just continue it's decline after that. Who knows. As for how it affects the current bitcoin market, I haven't a clue. I'd like to believe that the funds pouring in would not be affected in the least. |
|
|
|
Well I'm feeling more convinced now that this uptrend has more runway. The whale behavior is starting to look like what it did in early 2013.
Let's put it this way, if someone is trying to prime the pump for a new rally to a new ATH, they are doing it right. If it continues to 600 or more, then I can't imagine that it won't explode sometime after that, probably in the new year. U.S. traders will have new money to invest after they sell off stocks to pay taxes by EOY.
And it would be a damn shame if they waste this rising opportunity, because they have to know that building positive market sentiment doesn't come around all that often. Once cultivated, don't blow it, use it (this is exactly what they did in 2013). Because once sentiment turns negative again, it'll stay that way likely for years... again.
I guess we shall see how this all plays out.
What about going back down to 230? You said the market will crash back down to 230, and that you will be making $3000 for every $10 it drops on the way down. You said it could take months to play out, but it's inevitable. Now you are saying it's going to pump to a new ATH? Expect more of this on the way back down to 230. For the short term at least, it appears that I got it wrong. I was basing that opinion on the 2 previous head fakes that we had previously this year, as well as 2 solid years of nothing but bear market. So one can't be a cautious bull now? Predictions have to always be right? A broken clock is right twice a day and 730 times a year. Besides, it could still turn south back into bear market mode any time the whales want it to. That could happen tomorrow, or 4 months from now. This is not Average Joes running up the price. This is a few deep pocket whales. No one, I mean NO ONE, knows their end game or how high they intend to take it except them. |
|
|
|
|
Well I'm feeling more convinced now that this uptrend has more runway. The whale behavior is starting to look like what it did in early 2013.
Let's put it this way, if someone is trying to prime the pump for a new rally to a new ATH, they are doing it right. If it continues to 600 or more, then I can't imagine that it won't explode sometime after that, probably in the new year. U.S. traders will have new money to invest after they sell off stocks to pay taxes by EOY.
And it would be a damn shame if they waste this rising opportunity, because they have to know that building positive market sentiment doesn't come around all that often. Once cultivated, don't blow it, use it (this is exactly what they did in 2013). Because once sentiment turns negative again, it'll stay that way likely for years... again.
I guess we shall see how this all plays out.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
