lol i'm no bear... but these are bearish times. i invite you all to watch my new thread, its sure to be a hit! oh ya  So you made a single post and locked this thread because....?? |
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OP says bitcoin hit its full potential, when only 2-3M people out of 7B worldwide actually have any bitcoin yet?  |
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100% certain, barring any major crypto flaws or Google suddenly adopting Dogecoin.
The only question is, when. Pessimistically I think it could be anywhere 3 - 10 years coming. Since it may have to wait for surges in genuine adoption rather than speculation.
If it takes 10 years to reach 1K again, a lot of people will sell before that arrives. People (that missed the boat, like most of us) are hoping to retire in 10 years. If in 10 years we go from 400 to 1000, it's going to be dissapointing. In 10 years, 1000 will be worth 400 or less given the dollar's inflation rate... so that would be a total failure When bitcoin is rising people think that we'll hit $10K within 6 months. When bitcoin is slumping they think it will take 10 years to revisit the previous ATH. Good lord.  |
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From cypher's twitter:
"its also the way out for the Millennials to escape the debt hole we Boomers r forcing upon them."
This tweet really grabbed me. Very interesting thought, fascinating actually. I'll be pondering about this one the coming days. Thanks for the inspiration.
I agree. Especially if at the very least cryptocurrencies turn the next 2-3 generations of young people from debt spenders to savers, and they pay off short-term debts, stop taking loans for everything, cut up credit cards, and only use cash/crypto for everything. Then the world financial economies will have to make MAJOR adjustments. I remain hopeful. |
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Guys, why even bother keeping up with the minute to minute. Here's a summary: 1. Whale pumps bitcoin on PayPal news, hoping to spark a mini-rally 2. Mini rally fails 3. Whale slowly sells off coins 4. Price grinds back down to where it was before rally Gee, whouda thunk it huh? Occam's Razor at its finest  I think Occam's Razor applies to my theory of the price action since June 1st,
Ok, let me play devil's advocate to some of your possible arguments: Hal Finney's coins are being sold.
Possibly He was the earliest adopter and probably had 500,000 coins.
In June, he started selling because he needed the money for medical bills and the cryo project.
So you know for a fact that he didn't have health insurance to cover the majority of his medical bills? Very unlikely. His family is still selling. Soon they will be done selling and up we will go.
Possibly, but health insurance should cover the bulk of his base medical bills. But probably not the cryo stuff. Then again, he would have to pre-pay for most of cryo setup, not after. Also, his wife would be an absolute FOOL to sell all of their btc!! She could live off of that slowly for the rest of her life, and still end up a gazillionaire at the end of it. BTW the days destroyed won't show it because he moved his coins around a lot.
Hmmm... maybe. But his wife would likely have a hard time keeping track of all those wallets. Don't assume that she was tech literate. He most likely consolidated the majority of btc for her to deal with. |
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Before you guys get all excited, pls know that IBM has had hundreds of R&D projects (based on open source software) that have eventually failed. This could easy be one of those internal R&D projects that fades into obscurity.
I know, I used to work there. Their internal failure rate is fairly high. Which is why the acquire way more technology solutions than they home grow.
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Guys, why even bother keeping up with the minute to minute. Here's a summary: 1. Whale pumps bitcoin on PayPal news, hoping to spark a mini-rally 2. Mini rally fails 3. Whale slowly sells off coins 4. Price grinds back down to where it was before rally Gee, whouda thunk it huh? Occam's Razor at its finest |
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Store of value. It works, but only after the next ATH.
Anyone who bought this year would laugh at that notion. But then those that bought in before previous ATH's are laughing as well that their btc is still worth more than when they purchased it.
BTC is a fantastic store of value only for those with a lot of patience. A LOT.
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Guys, why even bother keeping up with the minute to minute. Here's a summary: 1. Whale pumps bitcoin on PayPal news, hoping to spark a mini-rally 2. Mini rally fails 3. Whale slowly sells off coins 4. Price grinds back down to where it was before rally Gee, whouda thunk it huh? |
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When the price goes down I buy.
When the price goes up I buy.
When the price stays the same I hodl.
That's called a perma-idiot. j/k  |
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I just hope Amazon will start accepting Bitcoin tomorrow. We then might reach 450. For 30 minutes.
So what happens when the bitcoin community finally runs out of "When [X] finally adopts bitcoin, it's to the moon!" events and the price still hasn't budged? |
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I guess theoretically it could happen at any point in time. But I really think a number of factors HAVE to play into such an event:
1. Some period of time has to past from last ATH. Usually at a minimum 9-12 months, as market recovers and resets to equilibrium.
2. Reward halving near or has past
3. Mining cost dips below exchange rate, and continues to stay there for a long while.
5. As buying slows down, the exchange price slides to a much undervalued level compared to continued exponentially growing public awareness, network growth, and transaction growth (All of 2012 was a prime example of this).
6. Other equities and commodities markets suddenly become less attractive
7. Potentially a black swan event (like Cyprus) or stock market crash
All of the above are merely factors, but ultimately it's whale investors that sense that the market is ready based on the above and start priming it.
It's now clear that the current exchange rate is trending towards an undervalued point. And I think it could stay there for quite some time (which is good if you are looking to accumulate more, bad if not). But the longer it stays there (similar to 2012), the more explosive the upswing will be. We could see the upswing sometime next year, or all of 2015 could be much like 2012. Who knows. Only time will tell.
At least sometime by 2016? If bitcoin market history is an indicator, the odds say 95% yes.
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The Chinese woke up, saw the PayPal integration news, and were like Meh. Yawn.
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Up or down in the next 24h hours? And, WHY?
I'm sure I am not going to become popular with my bearish sentiment here on this board full of bulls, especially when we just had that rally upwards. But I'll give it a try: Up only if a whale decides to push us there, and only if those walls @ $465 and $500 (Bitstamp) belong to the whales so that they can be removed quickly in order to facilitate some quick price action upwards that finally triggers all those short margin calls. But my guess is we will go down, even if we see another small rally beforehand. Buying action was surprisingly unimpressive after we dropped into the 370s, so it's probably going to be even worse now that we are back in the 440s - despite the paypal news, which is IMHO completely blown out of proportion and will probably fail to bring in a significant number of new buyers. So we'll probably get the same combination of slowly bleeding down together with some unexpected rapid dumps that we have seen in the last couple of weeks. This is still a bear market overall, and unless something fundamentally changes it's probably going to stay that way for the next weeks. Next stop: 350s, maybe with a short-lived dip into the $320-$330 range. There we (and especially the whales) are going to find out if organic buying pressure will finally pick up, which would mean that the bottom is probably in. Otherwise we are going down even further into the 200s. All IMHO, of course. I'm a long term bull, but short term a little bearish. I'm just not seeing the expected volume either. So I do think it will grind back down again for a while. Unless a few more whales come along and do again what happened today. The only thing I disagree with is dip all the way down to 350's. Just not seeing it, the market has some stubborn support down there. I would buy heavily at that level. So I think back to $380-390 is a possibility, but make take a few weeks. |
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If so they would be stupid to use bitcoin, still traceable.
Maybe one of the dozen or so anon coins? Monero, anyone? lol
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you guys think this the start to a new bubble?
Would have to dig out of trench around $480 first, then eventually move up on rising volume to get past $510 resistance. At that point I would confidently say we've started a new uptrend. Until then, no. |
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A few minutes before the rally started nearly all the bids on Bitstamp down to 360 were removed within in a second. Also quite a lot of asks were removed, but far less than bids. I switched over to the trading PC and by then everything was back to normal. Did anyone else catch that? I wonder what that was all about, there were literally only a few dozen coins worth of bids down to 360, basically just a long flat green line (on bitcoinity.org). A bug maybe? But would be a weird coincidence because it happened right before that rally.
About the rally itself: I kinda feel that this was orchestrated by a single entity, probably in order to induce a short squeeze. I doubt very much that this was "organic" buying by people who suddenly all decided to buy in unison. Or maybe I'm wrong and it was caused by a bunch of people buying because of the paypal news, but I doubt it...
I followed the rally early on and decided @ about $415 that someone was trying to squeeze those 11000 shorts out. So I went "picking up pennies in front of the steamroller" - I bought into the askwalls, then set up my own askwalls at a slighty higher price. Worked out well, but I would have been in trouble if the price had reversed suddenly. Bids were very thin, so I wouldn't have been able to sell the coins back at the price I bought them at. Was probably not a good idea, even though I made some profit.
Similar to my own ideas: I don't think it was "organic" either, in the sense of buying pressure slowly building up, then being released. Looked like a single entity to me as well, only question is: why? Seems by buying gradually, you could minimize slippage, so assuming the original assumption (one entity driving this one) is right, I can see two reasons to buy it all at once, across exchanges: to "make a point" for the bulls, or to squeeze shorts. The latter didn't seem to work (so far), however, judging by the finex stats. Gentlemen, as long as *THIS ONE ENTITY* has the dough to move the markets, there you have it. I don't see a point to find out the reason. Maybe he has no reason at all. Maybe he thinks, at this moment, this move is a great investment, or maybe he just thought that the Paypal news will turn the things around. There have been a hell of a lot of reasons that BTC should go up all these months, but guess what... it didn't. Why don't you ask yourselves why was so in the first place? We're floating in a pond that's full of whales. If one of them decides to make a move, many of us will feel like it's the mother of all storms coming over and over again. So here's your whale, he made his move. Waves coming. Let's all deal with it. Yes, but one whale will run out of funds soon. We need TONS of whales all working in tandem. Momentum can't just peak out, it has to keep going for weeks with heavy volume to fool (er, convince) the public. |
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It's good to see bitcoin going up for a change. But this rally feels like...  |
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bitfinex finally updated
shorts:
was 11,325.44 BTC
now 10,604.50 BTC
Hardly a dent.  |
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