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621  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] ABSORB - Emulating BTC/USD margin trading on: May 20, 2012, 10:09:55 AM
This idea is much less fancy and inspiring than PureMining and Anti-Pirate.

But still a very good idea overall, cleanly designed with no clutter. Smiley
622  Economy / Securities / Re: [ANN] HEDGE insurance/surety bonds on GLBSE on: May 19, 2012, 04:47:12 PM
Introducing the HEDGE family of insurance bonds from the Stochastic Insurance Company.  These bonds will act as an insurance on GLBSE assets.  These bonds are used to hedge against financial loss due to assets not paying expected dividends or due to failure.

How it works:

A pair of bonds will be traded on GLBSE for different assets.  The pair of bonds will be named HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG and HEDGE.<ASSET>.SHORT.  The .LONG assets believe that the ASSET will meet its contractual obligations as detailed in the HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG contract.  The .SHORT assets believe that the ASSET may not meets its contractual obligations as detailed in the HEDGE.<ASSET>.SHORT contract.

The assets will be auctioned off on GLBSE at the beginning of each month for 0.10 BTC per bond.  All proceeds from the pair of bond sale will be held in trust.

In the event that the ASSET meets the contract terms the BTC held in the trust will be divided proportionally to the HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG bond holders and the HEDGE.<ASSET>.SHORT holders would receive no payment.  In the event that the ASSET DOES NOT meet the contract terms the BTC held in the trust will be divided proportionally to the HEDGE.<ASSET>.SHORT bond holders and the HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG holders would receive no payment.

There will be a 2% management fee on the bonds but the fee will only be imposed on the side of the bond that mature worthless.  For example, if the ASSET meets the contract and HEDGE.<ASSET>.LONG receives the payment, the fee will be imposed on the proceeds from the sale of the HEDGE.<ASSET>.SHORT.


Interesting. Seems like you are holding different sets of dual bets.

I expect HEDGE.USD.LONG, HEDGE.OIL.SHORT or HEDGE.NORTH-KOREA-NUKES-EVERYONE-ELSE-BEFORE-CHRISTMAS.LONG soon. Cheesy

Yes, anything is possible, but I first want to get soem of the listed assets on GLBSE, especially those that have obligations to their share/bond holders.

My first asset I will likely list will cover TYGRR-BANK and PPT family of bonds.  Then I will move to the highest traded assets on GLBSE.

My question for investors is which security would you like to be covered.

I think at least HEDGE.USD.LONG/SHORT will attract some interests, since Bitcoinica is offline and unlikely to operate soon. People could turn to your asset, no matter if they want more risky things to bet on or more insurance to hedge their portfolio.
623  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law on: May 19, 2012, 10:03:38 AM
Are growth percentages (the 0.89%) compounded or not? Meaning: after 100 weeks, is the hash rate per bond 1.89 or higher?

Also 100 (percent) / 2 * 52 (weeks) != 0.89%... How did you come up with that number should you not plan to compound interest?

It is compounded. Or it would have a chance to beat the Moore's Law, which itself implies exponential growth.

After 18 months, that is 1.5 year:
(1+0.89%)^(1.5*365/7)=1.99976, which is very close to 2.

After 100 weeks:
(1+0.89%)^100=2.43556.

Disadvantage 2 is easy, just think how long you want to hold a bond and then calculate how many hashes it would solve in that timeframe. I could try to put up a calculator/spreadsheet for that... Something along the lines of "I want to hold bond A or MOORE for X weeks - how long do I need to hold MOORE to be chaper per hashes solved than bond A?"

This is the easy part. The hard part is "how long you want to hold a bond", which is not pre-determined, but deeply affected by tons of other conditions, including the pricing of bonds themselves.

Thanks very much.
624  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law on: May 19, 2012, 07:41:33 AM
When will you start offering them? I don't see them on GLBSE yet.

I've already created the asset with the date set as "3 days from now", but it doesn't show on the IPO page. Don't know if it's a feature of GLBSE or there's something I didn't do it right.

Which is the difficulty of that week? The difficulty at the start of that week, or at the end? Same goes for B.

It means the start of that (financial) week. That is, each payment on Wednesday will be calculated using the difficulty and block reward of last Wednesday.

Wouldn't it be better to calculate the dividend the way Puremining does, so that neither difficulty nor B can affect it? I like the look of these bonds, but would prefer dividends based on numbers of blocks solved rather than weeks.

We will surely consider, thanks for your advice.
625  Economy / Securities / Re: Is the person behind the MATH ticker symbol lurking in these parts? on: May 18, 2012, 12:26:31 PM
there are only 19 shares outstanding. the asset under management is so small, and I don't think such high return performance can last if the asset size growth larger.

Yes, and I come from the school of thought that does not believe in "predicting" the future price based on the history data as the contract says.

Pair trading based on correspondence analysis and quantitative trading in arbitraging do have something real behind them, but I couldn't let myself believe in technical analysis, no matter how fancy the math tools it uses.
626  Economy / Securities / MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law (Collecting Shareholder Data) on: May 18, 2012, 12:19:57 PM
Believe me, there has not been anything like this in the Bitcoin world yet.

I'm relatively active between 1:00AM to 3:00PM of forum time each day. Contacting me within this time interval could get quicker responses.

Announcement

In case of the possibility we could not receive the shareholders data, we begin collecting the claims ourselves.

Please send to (fnnirvana@gmail.com) your number of shares and your Bitcoin address for receiving dividends. Please annotate that they are MOORE shares to avoid confusion with ASICMINER or MU shares. You could accompany them with any evidence you think is OK to provide. It is highly recommended that you use an address that you have its private key. By that, you may enjoy more facilities provided by our future automatic migrating platform.

The Liquid Helium Plan

If a catastrophe comes, we can save ourselves by soaking our body with liquid helium, and wake up in a brighter future.

To cope with the panic of mining bonds, I've decided to freeze the entire earth. Now it's already 17 weeks later. You don't feel anything, but it's indeed 17 weeks later. I can feel the soft and cool breeze of the late autumn, can't you? Cheesy

Anyway our contract has to be accurately executed. So I have no choice but to re-calculate our hashrate from 1.03608 to 1.19388.

The similar plan will be launched in the future if similar disaster happens.

First launch: 17 weeks, 1.03608MH/s to 1.19388MH/s.

IPO and Bulk Purchase

You could buy shares of MOORE from GLBSE's open market: https://glbse.com/asset/view/MOORE, or you could do a bulk purchase directly from me.

Shares Left for Bulk Purchase: 0/9000

The price of IPO is set at 0.50 BTC/s.

The price of bulk purchase is set at 0.45 BTC/s(10.00% discount), but each trade has to involve larger than 500 shares(225 BTC). Please PM me for trades, and find witnesses/make records on replies if necessary.

Thanks to everyone who's interested. Smiley

Rolling display of the hashrate in next 5 weeks, updated each week
Payment date                   Hashrate(MH/s)
November 20                       1.43805
November 27                       1.45085
December 4                        1.46376
December 11                       1.47679
December 18                       1.48993


Brief Introduction
Moore is a perpetual mining bond. Each bond represents 1MH/s of hashrate from the start. What makes our bond different, is that the hashrate grows by 0.89% each week, which means that your hashrate will be doubled every 18 months. If you take the current other perpetual mining bonds as financial derivatives of the pro-payment model of normal mining stocks, then our bond is closest to the pro-reinvestment model of normal mining stocks.

Advantages
1. Compared to other mining bonds, the future price of Moore is less likely to drop.
2. We are essentially doing reinvestment job for you, saving you from the hassle of low liquidity, choice of new hardware, identifying good mining securities, etc.

Disadvantages
1. The initial price will be determined at a somehow high level.
2. Normal perpetual mining bonds will likely to become fungible, so you can easily figure out if a bond is mispriced by comparing it to others. But for Moore, it is not that easy to do a reasonable accurate valuation.

Risk Control
1. Initially, Moore will be backed by the bond issuer's current hardware and other mining equities.
2. More real hardware will gradually dominate the portfolio which backs Moore.
3. The bond issuer has the right to degenerate Moore into a normal mining bond by multiplying its hashrate at that time and 1.6. For example, after three years, each bond represents 4MH/s, if the issuer decides to degenerate it, it turns to a normal mining bond, which loses the power to grow 0.89% per week, but instantly becomes 6.4MH/s and doesn't change anymore.
4. The bond issuer has the right to buy Moore back at 105% of the weighted average market price of the last 5 days.
5. The bond issuer has the right to determine the price when he releases new bonds to the market.

Coupon Calculation
Definitions
Financial Week: Starting from 16:00:00(GMT Time) each Tuesday, ending at 16:00:00(GMT Time) the succeeding Tuesday.

Coupon Unit: The quantity of Bitcoins paid each share each financial week.

Payment Time
We assume T(0) is the IPO starting time, T(i) is the time of i-th coupon payment, and it should satisfy:

16:00:00(GMT Time) Tuesday of the i-th financial week <= T(i) < 16:00:00(GMT Time) Wednesday of the i-th financial week

The substraction on T(i) is defined in seconds, which means that (T(i)-T(i-1)) represents "how many seconds elapse between T(i) and T(i-1)".

Amount of Payments
The coupon unit of the i-th financial week is:

10^6 * (1.0089)^(i-1) * f(i) / 2^32

in which f(i) is calculated as follows:
  f(i) = (t(1)-t(0))*B(0)/D(0) + ... + (t(n)-t(n-1))*B(n-1)/D(n-1)
     where:
        the number of the changes of difficulty and block reward between T(i-1) and T(i) is (n-1).
        t(0) equals to T(i-1).
        t(j) (when 0<j<n and n>1) means the time of the j-th change of either the difficulty or the block reward during T(i-1) and T(i).
        t(n) equals to T(i).
        B(j) means the last block reward before t(j+1).
        D(j) means the last difficulty number before t(j+1).
        The substraction on t(j) is also defined in seconds.

Estimated Returns vs Normal Mining Bonds

Normal Mining Bonds are assumed to have a price of 0.3BTC/share, plotted in blue.
Moore Bonds are assumed to have a price of 0.48BTC/share, plotted in red.

X-axis is the number of weeks, Y-axis is the expected total return rate from coupons.

The difficulty is set at 1,733,208.
The date when block reward reduces to 25 is set at 30 weeks later.

The first picture assumes that the difficulty does not change:



The second picture assumes that when the block rewards turns to 25, the difficulty also turns to a half, as some miners will close their operations:



The third picture assumes that the difficulty also always smoothly increases by 0.89% according to the Moore's Law:



The forth picture assumes the same as the third one, except that when the block rewards turns to 25, the difficulty also turns to a half, as some miners will close their operations:


(reserved)
627  Other / Off-topic / Wow it's Schumer speaking again! on: May 18, 2012, 04:40:43 AM
I am wordless.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-17/schumer-proposes-tax-on-people-like-facebook-s-severin
628  Economy / Securities / Re: (TyGrr) TyGrr-Bot ~automated arbitrage trading system~ on: May 17, 2012, 11:17:40 AM
Code:
5/15/2012	17:21:14	$143.96 	$145.25 	29	$1.29 	0.89%	
5/15/2012 17:19:51 $24.81 $25.04 5 $0.23 0.94%
5/15/2012 17:19:44 $24.81 $25.04 5 $0.23 0.94%
5/15/2012 17:17:22 $4.95 $5.00 1 $0.05 0.94%
5/15/2012 17:17:07 $9.90 $9.99 2 $0.09 0.92%
5/15/2012 17:11:52 $4.94 $4.97 1 $0.03 0.54%
5/15/2012 17:11:44 $4.94 $4.97 1 $0.03 0.54%
5/15/2012 16:54:15 $163.47 $164.29 33 $0.82 0.50%
5/15/2012 16:46:05 $59.44 $59.74 12 $0.30 0.51%
5/15/2012 16:45:58 $59.44 $59.74 12 $0.30 0.51%
5/15/2012 16:44:08 $19.81 $19.91 4 $0.11 0.54%
5/15/2012 15:59:46 $4.94 $4.98 1 $0.03 0.70%
5/15/2012 15:59:37 $153.56 $154.34 31 $0.77 0.50%
5/15/2012 15:54:59 $173.38 $174.25 35 $0.87 0.50%
5/15/2012 15:54:51 $173.38 $174.25 35 $0.87 0.50%
5/15/2012 14:26:46 $4.97 $5.00 1 $0.03 0.53%
5/15/2012 14:26:35 $153.56 $154.87 31 $1.31 0.85%
5/15/2012 14:26:24 $173.38 $174.86 35 $1.48 0.85%
5/15/2012 14:26:04 $173.38 $174.86 35 $1.48 0.85%

$1,531.04 $1,541.35 $10.31 0.69%




If this 3 hours are an average case. Then TyGrr-Bot could make about 560$ in a week, that is about 112BTC. And as said by Goat:

We will pay out 50%  We think that's more than fair really.     

About estimated profit, hard to say. Depends on market conditions:/

The expected dividends will be about 56BTC each week.

We will need a much more volatile market to make it more impressive. Sad
629  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive on [GLBSE] on: May 16, 2012, 07:52:40 AM
That was really informative thanks for sharing that, Kluge. friedcat, can you elaborate on the evaluated return and how that corresponds to the .55 price point, as well as how the valuation of bonds are different?

Detailed explanation of the underlying reason will be very complicated and controversial.

If we just look at the fact. It's something like:

mining bonds > Cognitive > other mining stocks

You could see the dividends paid by each asset from GLBSE and evaluate them yourself.
630  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: May 16, 2012, 03:18:55 AM
Weekly Financial Disclosure

Time: 10:54 AM, Beijing time
Date: May 16, 2012

Funds of Last Week: 401.285BTC

Newly Raised Funds: 102.919 BTC

Assets:

BitBond
Original: 745shares 452.901BTC
Bought in: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Holding Price: 0.608BTC
Sold: 344shares 220.160BTC
Average Selling Price: 0.640BTC
Holding: 745+0-344=401shares 243.808BTC
Net Gain: (0.640-0.608)*344=11.008BTC
Dividends Paid: 3.919BTC

BDK
Original: 66shares 4.356BTC
Bought in: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Holding Price: 0.066BTC
Sold: 56shares 11.144BTC
Average Selling Price: 0.199BTC
Holding: 66+0-56=10shares 0.660BTC
Net Gain: (0.199-0.066)*56=7.448BTC
Dividends Paid: 0.025BTC

JLP-BMD
Original: 708shares 176.892BTC
Bought in: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Holding Price: 0.250BTC
Sold: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Selling Price: N/A
Holding: 708+0-0=708shares 176.892BTC
Net Gain: 0.000BTC
Dividends Paid: 1.444BTC

Cognitive
Original: 270shares 140.670BTC
Bought in: 300shares 155.200BTC
Average Holding Price: (140.670+155.200)/(270+300)=0.519BTC
Sold: 270shares 151.180BTC
Average Selling Price: 0.560BTC
Holding: 270+300-270=300shares 155.700BTC
Net Gain: (0.56-0.519)*270=11.700BTC
Dividends Paid: 1.733BTC

TEEK.B
Original: 0shares 0.000BTC
Bought in: 200shares 190.000BTC
Average Holding Price: (0+190.000)/(0+200)=0.950BTC
Sold: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Selling Price: N/A
Holding: 0+200-0=200shares 190.000BTC
Net Gain: 0.000BTC
Dividends Paid: 3.600BTC

YABMC
Original: 0shares 0.000BTC
Bought in: 500shares 150.000BTC
Average Holding Price: (0+150.000)/(0+500)=0.300BTC
Sold: 0shares 0.000BTC
Average Selling Price: N/A
Holding: 0+500-0=500shares 150.000BTC
Net Gain: 0.000BTC
Dividends Paid: 0.000BTC

Holding Funds=
401.285+102.919-0.000+220.160BTC+3.919-0.000+11.144+0.025-0.000+0.000+1.444-
155.200+151.180+1.733-190.000+0.000+3.600-150.000+0.000+0.000=402.209

Total Net Gain=
11.008+3.919+7.448+0.025+0.000+1.444+11.700+1.733+0.000+3.600+0.000+0.000=40.877BTC

Calculated Dividends: 40.877*100%=40.877BTC (100% dividends during fundraising)

Usable Funds: 402.209-40.877=361.332BTC

Actual Dividends: 40.877BTC (For Adjusting the rounding errors)

NAV: 361.332+300*0.587+401*0.646+10*0.191+708*0.246+200*1.005+500*0.303=1325.056BTC
Weekly NAV Growth: N/A (expansion stage)
631  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive on [GLBSE] on: May 14, 2012, 06:29:03 AM

What makes you think it is undervalued at 0.55 BTC/share?

I think it's because the evaluated return rate of Cognitive one of the highest in all mining stocks.

Mining bonds are a different story, of course.
632  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I'm leaving Bitcoin on: May 13, 2012, 01:48:14 PM
Ok, I will tell you how it will be Smiley

During next 20 years you will be building Facebooks 2, Instagrams 3, Friendfinders 4 etc... All these projects will fail miserably... One day you will sit down and tell to yourself - "Oh my God, how stupid I was when I was 19 years old... I had everything - money, name, new technology and I blew it off for some stupid startups that next year nobody remembers of..."

Or he will build something never appeared before, something that will eventually make all of us be able to live 200 years and drive flying cars. Or he will come back and contribute more to Bitcoin after one year or two.
633  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I'm leaving Bitcoin on: May 13, 2012, 01:26:12 PM
Thanks Tong. After reading your full post I was literally touched.

Despite all distrusts and controversies among some people, you still did a great job. I believe that Bitcoinica actually reduced the price volatility instead of increasing it, I also in my whole heart believe that Bitcoinica is much much more than just a place for people to speculate. You devoted a lot to the community and deserve appreciation.

Please do make us know your next big project whenever it is out, even it is not Bitcoin-related. I wish you success in person, not just as a Bitcoiner. Smiley
634  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: May 13, 2012, 08:58:15 AM
What we do and how we are different

As we grow larger, we are probably getting many new and potential investors who don't have the time to study our history data of financial disclosure, our structure or policies. Here we explain μ with a shorter and clearer manner.

The business of μ contains:
1. investment on valuable new stocks and bonds.
2. market making.
3. arbitraging.
4. value investment on old existing assets.
5. providing loans.
6. funding startups outside the GLBSE system.
Now we are only doing 1-4. We may do 5 and 6 in the future, but we will be extremely careful and make sure that the involved risks are rigidly controlled.

What makes μ different:
1. We are a stock, not a bond. Which means that:
    (1) you can vote if you are one of the shareholders.
    (2) you actually own your portion of μ's net asset value.
    (3) you can give us public or private suggestions, which will possibly be accepted by the CEO and turned into motions.
2. Each of our mid-time or long-time positions was and will ever be assets with a business model that is sound, public, and easy to understand. We may participate in high-risk assets, but only for arbitraging, and we will keep the time of holding them as short as possible.
3. Our name is the shortest of all. Cheesy
635  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] Mining Company Operating with 3.36 GHash/s - JLP-BMD on: May 13, 2012, 08:15:56 AM
So whats the projected GHash by this/next week?

Should be roughly 4GHash/s by Friday. 4.6 by next weekend, 5.2 by June...then we wait for 7990s...

Great, waiting for your other two cards. Smiley
636  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] Bitbond 82Gh/s - the only 105% PPS mining bond on: May 13, 2012, 08:13:57 AM
Updates (and lots of them)

  • My cumulative mining farm output has reached approximately 120GH/s.  More will be coming online in June
  • Two large individual investors recently bought into Bitbond increasing the bond size to 82Gh/s.  No further offering of shares is planned at this time
  • This week's payout was 110% PPS.  For 82Gh/s that totaled a massive 421 btc worth over $2000
  • As a part of the agreement with large buyers, Bitbond will return to 105% PPS for the foreseeable future
  • Bitbond is the largest asset on GLBSE and the largest mining bond.  I am developing some interesting ways for you to use your bonds beyond payouts or trading, making them more useful and more valuable.  Details will follow in the coming weeks.

Is it time to leak us some good news about your tantalization I marked bold? Grin
637  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: May 13, 2012, 08:06:39 AM
The MU Index for GLBSE

44.11 (kBTC)
218.94 (kDollar)

BTC Price: 4.963$

TyGrr-Bot
  Category: Long Term Bond
  Business: Arbitraging
  Shares in Circulation: 7326
  Avg Price: 0.967BTC
  Total Value: 7084.242BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 35159.093$

PureMining
  Category: Perpetual Bond
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 10000
  Avg Price: 0.450BTC
  Total Value: 4500.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 22333.500$

GigaMining
  Category: Perpetual Bond
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 10000
  Avg Price: 1.494BTC
  Total Value: 14940.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 74147.220$

Cognitive
  Category: Stock
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 5000
  Avg Price: 0.533BTC
  Total Value: 2665.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 13226.395$

FPGA.contract
  Category: Stock
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 6000
  Avg Price: 0.372BTC
  Total Value: 2232.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 11077.416$

BFLS
  Category: Stock
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 3600
  Avg Price: 1.600BTC
  Total Value: 5760.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 28586.880$

BMMO
  Category: Stock
  Business: Mining
  Shares in Circulation: 6782
  Avg Price: 0.336BTC
  Total Value: 2278.752BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 11309.446$

SS
  Category: Stock
  Business: Fund
  Shares in Circulation: 610
  Avg Price: 1.900BTC
  Total Value: 1159.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 5752.117$

MU
  Category: Stock
  Business: Fund
  Shares in Circulation: 5000
  Avg Price: 0.699BTC
  Total Value: 3495.000BTC
  Total Value in Dollar: 17345.685$
638  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: May 11, 2012, 09:35:11 AM
My dividend on 2012-05-08 sure was nice.  Thank you and keep up the good work!

Thanks.

The liquidity and volume of GLBSE stocks is growing. The more professional look-and-feel is attracting more people. New assets keep being bumped out. Though we are cautious about most of them, they are a good sign. Opportunities for arbitraging, maket making, and long-time holding are also becoming more and more.

In a word, the growth of μ is and will be very healthy. Smiley
639  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: How to buy BTC for RMB or USD in China? on: May 10, 2012, 01:39:19 PM
How to contact support of btcchina ?!
I don't see any contact info at this site at all! the only link I see doesn't work.


Their support also has an email address:

admin@btcchina.com
640  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] μ - Bitcoin Venture Capital (Asset ID "MU") on: May 10, 2012, 01:04:24 PM
Update

The second round of public offering has finished. All the 1,200 public and 700 private shares are all sold out, much more quickly than we thought. The CEO permanently gives up his fee and takes 100 shares as his compensation, as was passed by the motion.

Thank to all new and old investors. We've successfully expanded to a larger scale now. Towards great value and growth we are coming!
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