The random bet gambling will have more addicts then sports bets or card games with skill I feel its that random luck effect that can become addictive perhaps.   If forced to reason to improve your odds some then you are in a different frame of mind, more considered and a longer appreciation time is less conducive to addiction or at least thats my theory.  There are of course glory supporters in sports who dont reason at all just bet for their team but I dont see how thats as addictive as you know the team, watch the game so its more drawn out but purely a bet on random luck and its a fast hit win or lose thats where I think it can become irrational more easily and control is lost on the gambling self control.

No 32k is too apprehensive, we can sell but dont forget the buy that follows a sell off.   We will not end 2024 at 32k though I would not say thats the worst case scenario but generally we should recover after negative news.  ETF isnt everything in the world, if we never get the ETF its not a barrier imo
   I agree on Jan or the spring months, if we relate to last halvening of course a sell is possible with the worst possible news.   Hard to state larger natural negatives then the pandemic and shutdown, the millions who died (14m est UN) from that is all negative yet we recovered.   The ETF is artificial, its not natural news to a few people it wont even be taken as a negative on a refusal.  The purists dont even want the ETF and Im sympathetic to their thinking because BTC will amount to alot more then a symbol on a stock exchange; it was estimated by some to replace the entire prior means of trading so how can the ETF be the largest negative its not.
   Im wary of all the other negatives for BTC for the world generally, if these do not occur in 2024 if we find a way to keep building then stay positive and remember price is just a label not a cap to value.

Its not that bad news would be unexpected, further resistance to a BTC ETF has to be known to be possible.   Its the manner and definition in which it takes place, if we have an absolute denial of any possible BTC ETF then I would expect a sell off to at least mid 30k prices.   Possible further but a correction then back above to 35k would indicate just how seriously that was taken; 35k then might be a ceiling etc. market perception would be developing.
   Long term I dont think it matters as much as people expect, ETF or not BTC prospects are really not about a tradable quote on the various stock markets.   BTC has to be more then just another symbol swung into and out by the speculators and leveraged traders.  The whole story about BTC doesnt come to rely on an ETF as that is centralism and its easy to see why authorities resist the idea of BTC being accepted into the fold as it is so different and unguided by traditional governance.

All paper money created is related on a top down value dictatorship anyway.  If that central bank fails in some way then the money which is your money will cease to hold value in any case, in a sense after that being true it doesnt matter as much where the money is stored in the various banks related to that central bank.  The top bank ensures all other users of the currency follow the rules set or are closed down in favor of a better acting party.
  Its not a secret door, most measures taken by central banks and the government in issuance of currency are openly targeting currency inflation by design.   They no longer promise to honor a set value but aim to devalue by about 2% every year.   The continual funding and liquidity given to all banks is part of this deliberate policy against hard money, its very different to even as recent as the 1980's

Relaxing can only possibly apply if you stay within your limits.   IF you bet the house then how can it be relaxing, as a game designed to be a leisure past time then yes gambling is the easier path then trading otherwise i don't especially agree.   Reason why OP might be more wrong then right is too many people walk into a bad situation lackadaisically, do the simple thing and have a set limited budget every day then mistakes are purely just for that day its all fun and games then.

Thats a good graph, simple amalgamation across many years.   I think the conclusion we can easily realize resistance here is a fair one and the mirror of that is possibly a range with lower support around mid 30's to 40k could occur.  
  Lets be optimistic and say 40k for support, I have the 50 day average about there.   Staying above that measure still makes us strongly bullish like the early days of 2021 when there was alot of profit taking but still a good trend up intact.   If we havent even lost 42k in this week and the next then we arent even testing strength to that extent and I'd agree an attempt to surpass that resistance overhead becomes more probable and further gains and occur.   Maybe we stay bullish all the way upto halvening, I did not hope we'd be that positive tbh its often more complicated and testing.

Be realistic is best and yes its possible some people can make money but nobody makes money on every bet its just a hope that on average across a days betting you can make a profit. Do that enough times and you can argue its a regular profit.    I just dont think  its easy at all, anyone who does think its easy is likely to make a misstep or misjudge the risk and lose money.   Most realistic true thing I can say is  that every bet every game has a cost to play that game, to make a profitable bet you pay that fee then make a profit possibly, judging the best value bets is I think the only way to make a profit overall.   I dont have that level of skill personally, to judge value perfectly and grab the odds worth taking refusing the bad value bets takes alot imo.

There is no established connection from Trump to any illegal actions that is the biggest contention.   You dont have to like Trumps words and speeches but to hold him criminally responsible for saying something politically would be the wrong route to take in terms of free speech and democracy overall.  Trump knows that, its the game he is playing but its also likely correct no judgement against him will hold without an actual full conviction criminally.  So far as I can tell he organised none of the actual physical actions that took place or had the intent to do so, none of his staff either.  Until they can prove a link, you cannot prosecute for words or bar him without that conviction it will be overturned.    This isnt Trump gate, he appears less guilty then Nixon at the time he left office for example going way back.
   Saying that I still dont think Trump has a chance of actual re-election as he has lost the swing voters it appears.    Just having Republican support is not enough and not all of them are on his side anyway again he has some failure on his hands for sure;  I cant remember anyone losing after 1 term and coming back but never say never.   The bet for now is does he get the Rep ticket and for now I think so but also I would bet against Trump there after.   On that basis I would hope the Biden odds go up slightly but mostly thats how I would favor betting on a long term or 2024 year end bet.

I dont generally read the small print for alot of things but also I expect at that at least some will and any big problem would be raised on a forum such as this.  This is the worth of being a member of the forum you are not just one person alone but part of a group with a common interest and theres power in that.
   Its not to say you should not read the small print, I mean somebody has to be looking over these things but I dont expect to be entrapped in some web of lawyer speak and be told well its on you. Im not a lawyer and its usually accepted Im not required to be a legal eagle just to take part in any website even a gambling site for adults it should be fair and open to be called a good site really, most would agree with that imo.     The other point is when I first sign up, that might just be all I do I would sign up but not expect to immediately place large amounts of money there.  A site has to build up some familiarity, recognition, trust and established reputation I guess.   So I might sign up then go see what others are doing, their experience maybe what others think is the best game but often it'll be a while before Im forced into deciding for sure if I trust a place.

To rebalance debts, recover losses from laws broken is not new news in terms of trade balance and agreements I think we can go back decades for moves against rogue governments.  We could speculate is USA doing this unilaterally do they have the backing all members of the WTO for example, not all but I think its not unprecedented action.
  Venezuela is one country I can think of regularly seizing the assets of foreign firms as evil capitalists not matching their governments agenda to empower their people with the control and ownership of everything.  Sadly that attitude didnt work out and the government is resolved to yet another military dictatorship failing and killing their own people while sitting on the largest oil reserves in the world they cannot use them properly or allow others to help them do so.  
   In any case Venezuela had to pay for the assets seized, they risked seizure of any good traded internationally.  Russia again has done this for decades not just Ukraine but often unable to respect international law and no doubt will continue in the same way, again they have regularly had assets seized in order to settle the debt.  Its still damaging and failure in business but the process to return back value lost is not a new occurrence.

Socgen just sold assets to a Russian company for example, in the middle of a war which is illegal occupation of a sovereign state but it would be a failure to block or fail to pay for these assets and expect no debt to be accrued.

Criminalizing a population is never the best idea so just blanket ban of crypto was obviously a failure on their part to recognize their citizens as people free to think and act in a harmless free way.   Glad they have been able to adjust their bad attitude slightly but usually these things take ten years to play out back and forth.
   Every country that sees technology as a threat risks making their nation worse off, what is most likely to just suffer a competitive disadvantage vs competitors.  One of the great things about crypto is its ability to utilize the smallest elements of an economy, the people can be important not just large business maybe thats why this government did not see a use for the allowance of free exchange.

Right this second its not acting bullish, problem with holiday is the buyers can stop which just leaves people selling BTC to buy their goods and hence a sell off can occur. Its just a trading thing but not every time will a pattern resolve in a bullish way.   
  So we have some sell just right now but if it settles here and even corrects back some of that sell then its no news its forgotten easily.  If we do press on and lose 43k, confirm that loss on a 4hr bar then it can develop further.  As I say it only takes a lack of action, lack of people wanting to buy on a particular day can snowball into something of a pullback for at least this week or so.   Lets see how it develops, obviously the timing is not a normal time of the year yet BTC never stops and most prices you see quoted cease till an open day of trading so BTC is special.

They give away BTC every hour, its just a super modest amount but cant complain when its been there so long.    Personally I wouldn't mind BTC going back down just to raise the base reward amounts.  More or less I think I'm back to amount I had in BTC before 2021 rise and I had sold some then, so its about 3 years now as that also was just before xmas it rose.  Thats how long it takes to recover my long term hold, lucky the BTC cycle tends to be running about 4 years.   I never think its going to go up but the timing now far more fits going forwards in this 6 month period then comparatively this time last year I was thinking flat, very back and forth now you might risk being slightly more positive imo

Not hard for me to find when I post so often, outlook from a year ago and time is a correction is a quote from a trader of many decades who I presume knows his stuff.   Price on every day is altered by time even if its flat
After December it had drifted then rose well only March it threatened to revisit Dec prices but retracted and that was bullish and so on.
  I hope we have such a nice Jan again but I reckon a mirror of December is what I expect

I dont fear December at all, if we had a negative December it would still be from a high point at least in my perception.   Its the winter months (for northern hemisphere) that to me feel most harsh and hardest to navigate in my memory of past price history.       Bad news is the hard points for BTC to surpass are still ahead of us, as soon as people think we are safe we arent its not that easy.  I still think we can sell from here back to 30k or with the wrong news lower still.
   December tends to be what I would expect to be a light month, reason being all these holidays.  I know none of this is universal, some people have no major holiday or any big event in this month I dont presume all people celebrate anything this time of year even the new year can be with different dates on one calendar or another.  However alot of the traffic and volume does come at certain times even if people separately are not on holidays there are enough people away from their trading desks in December at key points; a few traders aren't here for the second half of this month hence its a light month.  We can more easily rise in December is my frequent conclusion.
   Wait for mid Jan at least before thinking we cant sell or trip and fall down some.

I believe currency will cease to be as we had recognized it in the past when (in future) energy becomes free, when that happens the world will be so different that currency wont be bound in the same way it was previous.   The reason I say that even though we arent close to free energy is I already think the economy has substantially changed in its basis from the old commodity, silver gold fix to paper notes that used to define currency for so long back to the medieval ages.
  The Dollar is based off the Spanish gold based currency that came before and was then dominant (and at that time far superior in standing)  sterling the prior empire to present was based off sterling silver standard then gold for hundreds of years, Isaac Newton helped define that currency basis.    But now modern Dollar is neither, its something new its political currency and obviously we know its in decline every year because of budget deficit spending funded by debt and excessive currency issuance, the inflation is deliberate and makes ordinary common workers poorer to pay that burden.    I will argue its already begun that currency is moving past politics and I hope we reach something related to data to digital worth where the transaction is more important then an exact government backing to make it valid; its not true now I just believe it might be visible on the horizon.

Its an impossible argument really if you appreciate that risk and gambling is actually a natural occurrence in life not a made up game particularly though we play it like that, there is a risk and unknown element to lots of things we do in life including the money we spend every day.  Hence I think everything is a gamble and in fact I learnt statistics and probability in my higher maths course during my studies, it was normal to appreciate all subjects include the idea of a gamble being part of life.
  To say I discovered gambling or learnt about it is not how I would phrase it I think we as people always know about this subject.   Whats correct to learn is the right attitude towards gambling, the correct amount of risks to take in life to be safe when you can be and also money management.  So im glad I learnt probability and statistics as part of my maths but its probably best for children growing to learn to manage their money in some way to know when to spend on bills or food and other essentials it separate ways thats a good thing to know always.

Theres alot of schemes like that, banking is one of the most subsidized business sectors operated globally.  Its also highly regulated and if you deal dollars they can shut you down anywhere in the world pretty much because of the large centralized influence inherit in this system.  The banks are easy choice to support as an industry as they are primary dealers of Government debt, if the banks cant buy then the government cannot spend.  More then that if the debt sales dont continue of government bonds then the debt must be repaid a budget surplus is a real hard sell come election.  Imagine politics has only its principles to run on not promises of bail outs and debt based overspending, a very hard prospect for anyone to get elected vs the candidate who will do the opposite.
  The problem with a circular relationship of banks supported by government programs who in turn will buy the debt to enable the support is the feedback effect is likely to fail at some point leading to extreme alterations in monetary liquidity.   Inflation switching to deflation and back again is an impossible scenario in an economy to navigate.

I'd argue the Faucet is still worth collecting especially if you then bet the amount and win on some decent odds.    Even if you dont bet just collect I'd argue its worth having over skipping.  The ideal choice is to just put in some amount of dollars you dont care about into BTC that is then large enough you can skip the effort but its not much effort imo.  However one of the things this site can say for itself is it helped raise awareness, usage and regular involvement in BTC for a far wider base of people then otherwise occurs.
   The reason to be positive is partly that BTC can still grow alot, most people I know are aware of BTC but really are not involved.   This situation and price right now is not even in sight of the summit to possible price gains, we arent even in the base camp we're in the state capital in a cafe feet up drinking, writing about that mystical peak out the window clouded on the horizon; thats how far we are from a top BTC price.  Of course it might not happen, a thousand alternatives may occur but I know the most probable is some repetition of the past which indicates further gains of BTC also.

The error of trying to control someone elses spending habits might be the bigger problem really.  Is spending money on shoes you dont need a bad idea but plenty of people buy clothes and fashion stuff they dont need.  Its a hobby, bad idea to interfere with someone spending their own money.  The real fair argument is the proportion of money shared in a relationship to address bills etc.  keep people safe warm and well fed, that is a fair argument but within a budget let people spend the money on gambling or betting horses whatever they like, its their free time leisure they can spend it however they like.   Just have a set budget and theres no need for an argument past that, clearly you wont be into everything a partner might be interested in.

Its not looking like we go down and really I already expected that.  If we can lose 42k then I'll go with a possible full resolve down to 35k.  Basically that'd loop us back to Oct 23rd Weekly big candle and when settled there then it can rise again of course.  I drew those prices as bottom of the channel or in other words just the flip side negative take on what has been overall a positive move.   However its not taken any negative inclination really at all since October, its decided to go right up like a helium balloon; we are caught looking at the sky after letting go for a second hoping a gust of wind can reverse our fortunes to bring it back down into grasp
  If 43356 forms as a ceiling to price movement and also 42k is lost then I'm looking negative end to this month as it will have slipped lost a foot hold.  Otherwise I'm forced to be positive against my best nature :p   BTC December end price guess bet is with only 2 days left so there's very likely not enough time to especially estimate beyond just guessing.
  50k and 37k I reckon are equally possible but 50k I gain anyhow as I hold BTC.  The odds on 37k is better, BTC can always sell because its always over speculated.  I'll go 37k small bet till I can decide better, probably I wont decide unless price action very soon gives a clue.