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6961  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 07:43:54 PM
Spoke with a financial advisor yesterday who has over 100 high net worth clients.  Number of his clients that hold any cryptocurrencies:  0.

It’s still innovator stage.  We have not yet hit early adopter.

He has how many client? if 10 out of 0 is nothing to be surprise. If he has like 1000 clients and none of the clients are holding any cryptocurrencies than that is shocking.

He personally has over 100 clients.  The firm he works with would have thousands of clients and he isn’t aware of any of them holding any crypto.  
6962  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 07:37:41 PM
Spoke with a financial advisor yesterday who has over 100 high net worth clients.  Number of his clients that hold any cryptocurrencies:  0.

Lol, well duh.  You do not become rich by having some Chinese guy mine a token that has no actual value for a $1 cost of production and then selling it to you for $15,000 a couple years later.  That's the exact opposite way to become rich.

Hahaha its working for me !
6963  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 07:31:01 PM
Spoke with a financial advisor yesterday who has over 100 high net worth clients.  Number of his clients that hold any cryptocurrencies:  0.

It’s still innovator stage.  We have not yet hit early adopter.
6964  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 11:18:32 AM
Bitstamp looks like a slowly boiling pot. 
6965  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 10:55:41 AM
Is the CBOE volume the amount of bitcoins or the amount of 5-bitcoin contracts?

CBOE is 1 bitcoin contracts so the same thing.  CME is 5 bitcoin contracts.
6966  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 10:47:39 AM

AFAIK this was done by bitcointalk user thekozitwo (or something like that, too lazy to look it up). One time I complimented him/her on his beautiful singing voice and they replied that it was a hired singer doing the singing.

Last I heard from thekozitwo was when he/she sent 80K USD to Mt. Gox as it was going belly up and Bitcoins were trading for 0.1BTC/goxbux...


He/She used to hang around the Monero forums - so I think he did well in the end. Great couple of songs - now historical artefacts.
Check this out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXW-oTcrutA

They also got caught in BTC-E....   They are still active in the Moneron community. 
6967  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 09:21:21 AM
Bitmex allows 100x leverage.  Talk about madness. 
6968  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 08:41:01 AM
That’s better.  With the general lack of discipline around here you would think it was a Dogecoin Observer thread. 
6969  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 08:08:42 AM
We are $200 below ATH on stamp and you guys aren’t even paying attention.
6970  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 06:18:56 AM
Welcome back $16,000 Bearstamp.  

Edit:  I have to say media coverage today seems very positive. 
6971  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 06:11:29 AM
No.  In a 20% crash they just piss their Saks suits or whatever it is that kids wear these days.
6972  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 05:58:47 AM
This is getting hilarious:

http://www.cboe.com/aboutcboe/cboe-system-status


Quote
2/10/2017
[Print]
   9:34 PM CT    CFE    In accordance with CFE Rule 1302(i)(iv), another minimum 5 minute Halt will be enacted if the XBT front month future bid hits the 30% level.

So now they are allowing it to trade up to a 30% before they stop it again. Interesting.

It seems that they only stop the trading to check that nothing fishy is happening before restarting it again right after.

I think it’s so traders have a chance to take a piss.

Volume 2324.  That’s a healthy $37 million for the first day volume.
6973  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 05:15:13 AM
ZH top story

Quote
Bitcoin Futures Top $18,000, Soar 20% From Open - Halted for Second Time

A crashed exchange website, a volatility-surge halt, and now alimit up halt (20%) all in a few hours of the launch of the world's first cryptocurrency futures contract...

welcome to Bitcoin motherfuckers   Cool

All this on what is a fairly mild day.
6974  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 04:59:53 AM
I think the model is broken.  And it is going to drive the price of bitcoin sky high.

The reason is the only way retail and institutional investors can get exposure to Bitcoin is through futures. So futures are being used as a substitute for an ETF.  Which is going to blow the price of futures sky high as people FOMO.  

Which means a roaring arbitrage trade will develop with the exchanges. But the cost of funds of being a shorter will spiral out of control due to constant margin calls on the shorts who will have to pour in more fiat. Which will restrict supply, driving the cost higher.   So we should expect an ever increasing divergence between the future price and the exchange price.

Every long trade needs a short counterparty. I agree this will incentivize arbitrage, but as long as the available price of the underlying is less than the price of the active futures, then there should be someone willing and able to fill that gap.

I think?

But if you are short, and the price goes up, you will have to keep topping up your margin.  Are you prepared to top up a $16k short with $20k margin?   Just trying to figure this out.
6975  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 04:49:32 AM
I think the model is broken.  And it is going to drive the price of bitcoin sky high.

The reason is the only way retail and institutional investors can get exposure to Bitcoin is through futures. So futures are being used as a substitute for an ETF.  Which is going to blow the price of futures sky high as people FOMO.  

Which means a roaring arbitrage trade will develop with the exchanges. But the cost of funds of being a shorter will spiral out of control due to constant margin calls on the shorts who will have to pour in more fiat. Which will restrict supply, driving the cost higher.   So we should expect an ever increasing divergence between the future price and the exchange price.
6976  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 03:40:29 AM
We gonna bust the 20% limit today?  Second trading halt. 

Wonder if the shorts are being margin called already.
6977  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 03:23:55 AM
So it looks like the drop to triple digits isn't going to happen tonight, go figure.

I thought it was single digits we were supposed to go down to.

$1 million
6978  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 03:18:55 AM
Is Bitcoin dead?
6979  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 03:08:11 AM
If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?


no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

Ok, so I guess the 20% is the maximum exposure then?  If starting price is $10,000 and you bet it to go up, you really can't profit if it goes higher than $12,000?

Similarly, if you bet it to go down, you can't profit even it it drops under $8,000?

So no incentive to keep pumping it up if it's at $12,000 but it really needs to be at that price at the close of trading if you bet it for 24 hours, and seems like the price opens at 6pm Eastern and closes at 4pm Eastern the following day?


it's still uncertain how this will play out. but the bets are for one month approximately and now you can see why the CEO of international brokers is hesitant to allow trading of this derivative vehicle.

On CME there is daily settlement so you will just be instarekt when trading opens the next morning and you get margin called.  At least the margin requirement exceeds the daily limit.

On CBOE I don’t think there’s daily settlement so the shorts are massively exposed.  You would want to be fully hedged or be a miner.  There is no way 30% margin is adequate for a short over a month period.  That’s a joke.  CBOE is far more a dangerous product but the risk is mostly borne by CBOE.
6980  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2017, 02:44:14 AM
If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?


no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

CBOE has circuit breakers only, CME has circuit breakers and suspends trading at 20%.  Gonna be a lot of closed positions due to margin calls.
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