Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Imbatman]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

[shmadz]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

[HairyMaclairy]

Oh sweet summer child.

"My gut says there's going to be some wild volatility and swings in the first couple of days. You're going to see limit up, limit down a lot, and then it'll probably settle down, but I really don't know," said Larry Tabb, founder and head of research at Tabb Group.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/no-one-is-sure-whether-bitcoin-futures-will-pop-or-drop-at-the-start-but-it-should-be-wild.html

[HairyMaclairy]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

CBOE has circuit breakers only, CME has circuit breakers and suspends trading at 20%.  Gonna be a lot of closed positions due to margin calls.

[Torque]

Holy shit, I never ever thought I would see a headline in the MSM like this:

How to give the gift of bitcoin this holiday season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/how-to-give-bitcoin-as-a-gift.html

 

[shmadz]

Holy shit, I never ever thought I would see a headline in the MSM like this:

How to give the gift of bitcoin this holiday season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/how-to-give-bitcoin-as-a-gift.html

 

HAH! I tried to give away bitcoin back in Christmas 2013. I offered their choice, 0.1 bitcoin, 2 ounce silver (canadian mint wildlife series) or 50 bucks CAD. (*gifts of Christmas past, present, and future*)

no one took the bitcoin, no one took the silver, everyone took the cash.

you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink

(*btw - this article smells of native advertising *)

[xhomerx10]

Holy shit, I never ever thought I would see a headline in the MSM like this:

How to give the gift of bitcoin this holiday season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/how-to-give-bitcoin-as-a-gift.html

 

 Wow.  Is this the acceptance phase already!?

[Ibian]

Holy shit, I never ever thought I would see a headline in the MSM like this:

How to give the gift of bitcoin this holiday season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/how-to-give-bitcoin-as-a-gift.html

 

 Wow.  Is this the acceptance phase already!?

Nah a rogue scribe who snuck a fast one on the boss somehow. Won't last.

[fabiorem]

FOMO is already under way. The shorters betting in CBOE are losing the game.

20k next weekend?

[shmadz]

Holy shit, I never ever thought I would see a headline in the MSM like this:

How to give the gift of bitcoin this holiday season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/how-to-give-bitcoin-as-a-gift.html

 

 Wow.  Is this the acceptance phase already!?

Nah a rogue scribe who snuck a fast one on the boss somehow. Won't last.

my bet is a native ad. Coinbase paid CNBC to place that story.

[Torque]

Holy shit, I never ever thought I would see a headline in the MSM like this:

How to give the gift of bitcoin this holiday season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/how-to-give-bitcoin-as-a-gift.html

 

HAH! I tried to give away bitcoin back in Christmas 2013. I offered their choice, 0.1 bitcoin, 2 ounce silver (canadian mint wildlife series) or 50 bucks CAD. (*gifts of Christmas past, present, and future*)

no one took the bitcoin, no one took the silver, everyone took the cash.

you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink

Haha, yeah no doubt. The horses don't even know what silver is worth...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gmp2IqReFQ

[Rosewater Foundation]

Holy shit, I never ever thought I would see a headline in the MSM like this:

How to give the gift of bitcoin this holiday season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/how-to-give-bitcoin-as-a-gift.html

 

 Wow.  Is this the acceptance phase already!?

Nah a rogue scribe who snuck a fast one on the boss somehow. Won't last.

my bet is a native ad. Coinbase paid CNBC to place that story.

Total ad. Agreed

[Imbatman]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

Ok, so I guess the 20% is the maximum exposure then?  If starting price is $10,000 and you bet it to go up, you really can't profit if it goes higher than $12,000?

Similarly, if you bet it to go down, you can't profit even it it drops under $8,000?

So no incentive to keep pumping it up if it's at $12,000 but it really needs to be at that price at the close of trading if you bet it for 24 hours, and seems like the price opens at 6pm Eastern and closes at 4pm Eastern the following day?

[shmadz]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

Ok, so I guess the 20% is the maximum exposure then?  If starting price is $10,000 and you bet it to go up, you really can't profit if it goes higher than $12,000?

Similarly, if you bet it to go down, you can't profit even it it drops under $8,000?

So no incentive to keep pumping it up if it's at $12,000 but it really needs to be at that price at the close of trading if you bet it for 24 hours, and seems like the price opens at 6pm Eastern and closes at 4pm Eastern the following day?

it's still uncertain how this will play out. but the bets are for one month approximately and now you can see why the CEO of international brokers is hesitant to allow trading of this derivative vehicle.

[HairyMaclairy]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

Ok, so I guess the 20% is the maximum exposure then?  If starting price is $10,000 and you bet it to go up, you really can't profit if it goes higher than $12,000?

Similarly, if you bet it to go down, you can't profit even it it drops under $8,000?

So no incentive to keep pumping it up if it's at $12,000 but it really needs to be at that price at the close of trading if you bet it for 24 hours, and seems like the price opens at 6pm Eastern and closes at 4pm Eastern the following day?

it's still uncertain how this will play out. but the bets are for one month approximately and now you can see why the CEO of international brokers is hesitant to allow trading of this derivative vehicle.

On CME there is daily settlement so you will just be instarekt when trading opens the next morning and you get margin called.  At least the margin requirement exceeds the daily limit.

On CBOE I don’t think there’s daily settlement so the shorts are massively exposed.  You would want to be fully hedged or be a miner.  There is no way 30% margin is adequate for a short over a month period.  That’s a joke.  CBOE is far more a dangerous product but the risk is mostly borne by CBOE.

[shmadz]

Holy shit, I never ever thought I would see a headline in the MSM like this:

How to give the gift of bitcoin this holiday season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/how-to-give-bitcoin-as-a-gift.html

 

HAH! I tried to give away bitcoin back in Christmas 2013. I offered their choice, 0.1 bitcoin, 2 ounce silver (canadian mint wildlife series) or 50 bucks CAD. (*gifts of Christmas past, present, and future*)

no one took the bitcoin, no one took the silver, everyone took the cash.

you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink

Haha, yeah no doubt. The horses don't even know what silver is worth...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gmp2IqReFQ

this accentuates the problem with gold and silver. if some guy on the street tries to sell me silver I want it to be assayed. even gold bars direct from the Canadian mint are now found to be counterfeit... At least with bitcoin you can be assured of the quality and quantity of the trade.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/fake-gold-wafer-rbc-canadian-mint-1.4368801

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Crypto is about to explode. A little bit !

I knew it all the way.

[shmadz]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

Ok, so I guess the 20% is the maximum exposure then?  If starting price is $10,000 and you bet it to go up, you really can't profit if it goes higher than $12,000?

Similarly, if you bet it to go down, you can't profit even it it drops under $8,000?

So no incentive to keep pumping it up if it's at $12,000 but it really needs to be at that price at the close of trading if you bet it for 24 hours, and seems like the price opens at 6pm Eastern and closes at 4pm Eastern the following day?

it's still uncertain how this will play out. but the bets are for one month approximately and now you can see why the CEO of international brokers is hesitant to allow trading of this derivative vehicle.

On CME there is daily settlement so you will just be instarekt when trading opens the next morning and you get margin called.  At least the margin requirement exceeds the daily limit.

On CBOE I don’t think there’s daily settlement so the shorts are massively exposed.  You would want to be fully hedged or be a miner.  There is no way 30% margin is adequate for a short over a month period.  That’s a joke.  CBOE is far more a dangerous product but the risk is mostly borne by CBOE.

I think this is why the international brokers dude will not allow shorts. at least on the long side your risk has some limit. if the price goes down it can only go down so far... if you watch the video he explicitly states the risk to his firm if the price goes up. There is no limit to the upside risk. There is no limit to fiat money.

[Dabs]

he's convinced this is going to zero for the same reason all of us were certain this was a scam.. at first..

...

I heard about bitcoin when it had no price, pretty much. There was no exchange, the only thing I could find was some bulletin board where people were trying to make trades. Then MT GOX entered the picture and we got a pretty quick glimpse into price discovery (price went from like a dollar to over 30 bucks in a couple weeks, and then they got "hacked" and the rest is history)

...

anyways, my point is, everyone thinks bitcoin is a scam the first time they hear about it. it isn't until you really spend some time to look into it that you realize what it really is...

I was made aware of it around 2012. Maybe even earlier by a few months, by my bitcointalk was registered March 2012. Maybe because Gox was already existing then, what happened to me personally was that there was already a price, and there was history from $2 to $30. I bought my first one for about $10 or $20 after it had already crashed from $30.

And, of course, the first thing I did was send it to 1dice.... (satoshi dice address) ... lose, win, lose, win, lose. And I'm actually reading up their old thread, and I see a few of you guys in there ...

I did not think it was a scam when I heard of it, I read the white paper and went to the official site, got the core wallet (which wasn't yet known as core), lurked a bit on the official forum (this one, there was no other forum), read the mailing list, signed up ... and promptly gambled my 4 BTC. I won't bore you with the rest ... (satoshi dice, prime dice, rolling, and a bunch of others ... then just dice ...)

For you guys who are just plain hodling, you may consider funding some of these old time ones with a little bit of bankroll, the house always wins.

[Rosewater Foundation]

TRADING HALTED