Hey Tera
Remind me, what was the bottom before that rally?
It was $2.
$265/$2 = 132.5
$17171 / $152.4 = 112.6
Almost there
Fair enough. If we assume that the top is in and extrapolate the subsequent low as 35x the start price (same ratio of $2 -> $70), then that gives us 35 x 112.6 = $3941. That is still a healthy price and any long term hodlers would be well in profit. My original strategy actually assumed this sort of outcome as it allowed me a further period to accumulate before a subsequent lift.
However this time something seems to have snapped. I am seeing people all around me buying bitcoin. And they are also going into it with a long term mentality. So I think the above model is highly unlikely. But if we did, I would be completely comfortable with it.