(1,840,166,130 / 14,000) * 1471 Watt = 193348884 Watt =~ 193 Megawatt... This power draw would power the full bitcoin network
Megawatt-hour = Megawatt × hour
193 * (24*365) = 1.700.000 Megawatt-hour 1 MILLION 700 THOUSANDS MILLIONS OF WATTS PER HOUR ?Read it yourself, because if that's correct, I think I'm far off... and the network is sucking up much more than what I have written. |
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I haven't done the exact calculations, but i would be supprised if 36.000 households could be powered with the combined power used by asics in 24 hours... This would mean you could power 3000 households for a year with the power used in one day, or 1 million households for a full year with the power used for a year... Seems a bit high for me... EDIT: I'll try to look at this the other way around: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyThe current hashrate is 1,840,166,130 GH/s. Let's assume best case scenario first: everybody is mining with an antminer S9: https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK065414.000 GH/s for 1471 Watt at the wall That's exactly the point: we are not seeing how much electricity the Bitcoin network is sucking up at the moment, and that's why I made my calcs. Imagine tomorrow 1 BTC would suddenly rise in value to 10000$, would YOU buy an ASIC and start mining? I think I would. You would recover the cost in the next 2 weeks and make quite some bucks over it. Then, the price of Bitcoin could fall and you could just turn off your hardware. But you don't need such sudden increase in value: miners are constantly calculating if it's convenient to add hardware and mine more. And when is it convenient? When Bitcoin's price is higher. In other words, Bitcoin's value is directly proportional to the electricity spent to uphold its network, AND NOTHING ELSE (<- the bad part). Is there anything wrong in this reasoning? |
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First of all, if this topic has been touched already, please don't bash me, I tried a search for something similar but couldn't find anything. If so, anyway, just let it drown down or even lock it, I won't be offended.
Second, it may seem that this topic is about mining, but it's not. This thread is about a possible huge point of failure that has never been considered about Bitcoin.
Now, considerations: at the actual price (let’s round it to 600$), each block found gives the miner around 600*12.5=7500$.
If we assume that miners are taking just a small share of overhead on that number, we can assume they pay something like 6000$ to mine those Bitcoins.
Some of those 6000$ are for hardware, a lot is for electricity.
Now, to make it easy, I’ll just assume that 5000 of those dollars are for electricity. This is, approximately, the cost in electricity to uphold the Bitcoin network for 10 minutes.
Assuming an average electricity bill for a house of 20$ per month, this means that 250 houses could be powered for one month with the power used to uphold the Bitcoin network for 10 minutes.
This means that 36000 houses could be powered for one month with the electricity used to uphold the Bitcoin network for one day.
Now, we are all here waiting that Bitcoin's value will rise where it deserves to, replacing or pairing up with fiat currency, and this means we are waiting for it to take off for good reaching 10000$ of value, or even 100000$ or even 1 million $, who knows.
Now you easily see where this is going.
If one Bitcoin is going to be as valuable as 100000$, upholding the network for one day will require the same electricity to feed 5976000 houses for one month.
Are we going to build nuke plants to uphold the Bitcoin network?
The problem is that, with the actual protocol and software, the energy necessary to uphold the Bitcoin network is directly proportional to its value, and nothing else.
In fact, the chain of events to consider is this:
1. Bitcoin price increases because there's more demand
2. People/companies add computational power to the network because there's more money to take from the market
3. The Bitcoin protocol adjusts the difficulty to suck even more electricity to uphold the network.
4. Goto 1.
This, if we look at raw data like I have done.
But there may be variables that I didn't consider, and I don't want to seem that one who knows everything.
I'll be glad to be proven wrong, because I see this as a hurdle coming fast onto the face of Bitcoin, and we may find that countries will ban Bitcoin mining because of this.
So if anyone can bring me additional variables to throw into the equation that could considerably lower the Bitcoin's network uphold cost, I'm all ears!
If there's some different Proof-of-XXX (Proof of Porn?) incoming on the software, that I'm not aware of, I'd be glad to read about it, as much as if there's any other software solution or protocol change that could clear the problem, and the same with anything else that can prove my reasoning wrong.
Again, if this matter has been treated already, just let the thread drown, but please give me the link to that thread!
Thank you!
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Well, in the end I decided to buy a Ledger HW1, and put it in the safe box at my father's house. I decided to lower my paranoid threshold  |
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Waited 8 days with 50%, now the window looks like this.  Is anyone able to explain what those % mean at all? I can't understand what these % mean. I understand that the higher % means higher chance to find the address, but do the % refer to a precise timeframe or? And if it doesn't refer to a timeframe, what does it point to? Is that 75% the chance to find the address in the next 8 days? Or that after 8 days I will have 75% of chance to find the address in the following 8 days? |
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Thank you for the answer.
So it's a "forum dedicated" verification only, right?
it is mainly to be used in the forums to prove that you are the real owner of the account in question but it can be used as a proof in reddit for example to proof that you "GODLIKE" a user of reddit is the same guy "GODLIKE" in bitcointalk OK thank you! |
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I'm feeling stupid, but I can't understand what the purpose of this verification is.
The purpose of verification is in any case that your account is hacked or you just simply forgot your bitcointalk.org account's password Theymos will help you recover your account you will be again able to login to your account if you have staked a bitcoin address (with the signed message) with your account in this thread. However if your account is hacked you will be asked to sign the message from the same address you used to stake here so when you sign message with the same address and claims that my account is hacked the theymos will help you. So i say that's the best part of security/verification . Their are many hackers who are ready to hack the passwords so better change your password to a hard one and better stake your bitcoin address here  Thank you for the answer. So it's a "forum dedicated" verification only, right? |
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I'm feeling stupid, but I can't understand what the purpose of this verification is.
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how much addreeses can be generated per minute ?
If my second card doesn't over heat, I can do *nearly* 50 Mkeys/sec X 60 = 3,000Mkeys/ Minutes (ie 3 Billion keys a minute...) When it does overheat, I can do *about* 20Mkeys/sec X 60 = 1,200 Mkeys / sec or 1.2 Billion keys per minute. I'm wringing my hands wondering if I should buy a good new GPU card to replace the overheating one, or a whole new system... Your hobby is generating vanity addresses? |
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What I don't get is why it says now Prob 1.1% and then there's that 50%.
The 1.1% was 0.1% when I first started mining.
What is that 1.1% related to? Chances to find the name in the next 8 days?
Take my big dice imaginary again You're going to throw it again, and at the 110th throw, you hit the 4567 you wanted! Out of 10,000 possibilities, you had a 1.1% chance to hit it. You're lucky! Back to vanitygen: I've had prefixes that I found instantly, while there was a 50% chance to find it in (for example) 1 minute. But the opposite happens too: 50% chance in 1 hour and no hits within 8 hours. If you're very unlucky, your 8 day search could take months. It's just not very likely. When you want to use 3 cores, I assume you use vanitygen? But you're also talking about games, so I assume you have a decent graphics card. Can you use oclvanitygen? Ye I have a decent Nvidia board, but I haven't OpenCL installed. |
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This is something that I can't completely catch: it says that in 8 days the chances to find it are 50%, and I suppose the number increases while time passes.
So how is it possible that there's no "lost work" if I cut the search now and resume later, when the resuming is actually not resuming anything, but starting from scratch?
Imagine you have a dice with 10000 sides. You want to roll number 4567. You throw it 200 times, but didn't hit it. You stop for a while, to do something else with your time. Later, you continue throwing 200 more times. You repeat this every day, until you hit 4567. Does this make sense? Vanitygen doesn't have a fixed starting point, it searches random addresses. There is no need to keep track of the addresses that were checked already, as the number of available addresses is big enough to never check the same address twice. Every second that you run it, it increases the chance of finding the prefix you want. If "it says that in 8 days the chances to find it are 50%" when you start vanitygen, that exact same statement is also valid after 4 days, after 12 days, or at any other moment in time. It doesn't matter how many keys you've searched already, and it doesn't matter how long it has been running already. OK, I get that you can throw a dice 1000 times and each time it's a new throw that has nothing to do with the previous ones. What I don't get is why it says now Prob 1.1% and then there's that 50%. The 1.1% was 0.1% when I first started mining. What is that 1.1% related to? Chances to find the name in the next 8 days? |
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It works, but although the computer is responsive, the Resource Monitor shows that all the 4 CPU are working. Well, I guess I won't be playing videogames for the next 8 days or so  That's why I tested with 1 thread. It's easier to see that way, as other applications eat CPU too. Just in case: you can always turn it off when you want to use your PC, and turn it back on when you don't need the speed somewhere else. It just continues checking random addresses, so no work gets lost. This is something that I can't completely catch: it says that in 8 days the chances to find it are 50%, and I suppose the number increases while time passes. So how is it possible that there's no "lost work" if I cut the search now and resume later, when the resuming is actually not resuming anything, but starting from scratch? |
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Will have to check later what -t does, but put the address at end... vanitygen64.exe -t 3 1PURCAZ Mhhh I tried that too... I'll try again. This works fine here: ./vanitygen -t 1 1test Isn't lowering the priority a better idea than limiting the number of threads? On Linux I just put "nice" in front of the command (although it doesn't help much with oclvanitygen). It works, but although the computer is responsive, the Resource Monitor shows that all the 4 CPU are working. Well, I guess I won't be playing videogames for the next 8 days or so |
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Will have to check later what -t does, but put the address at end... vanitygen64.exe -t 3 1PURCAZ Mhhh I tried that too... I'll try again. |
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Hello, sorry for the noobish question, but I'm tryint to use Vanity Gen but I can't seem to get options to work.
I am just trying to limit the number of threads, otherwise the tool works nicely.
My CMD line looks like this:
vanitygen64.exe 1PURCAZ -t 3
I also tried with /t instead than -t but I keep getting an error like PREFIX 3 NOT POSSIBLE or INVALID CHARACTER '/' IN PREFIX '/T'
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~~
Checked around, seems that thing is a trojan.
~~~
I've read quite some pages from Reddit and other sources, seems the whole thing is giving away your keys somehow.
I won't even try the online services... tried one with 6 letters and email came after few minutes, so funny.
do you have any reference link for these things that you are saying? you may be using a wrong link to download the source code/exe or the program and as for your second comment are you using an online vanity gen creator? refer to this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=25804.0and this wiki: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Vanitygenand this source code: https://github.com/samr7/vanitygennowhere else. p.s. using a third party website can also be safe as long as you use a split key method. Sorry, I've read the articles and closed the tabs. I'll try Vanitygen and only use initially for small funds. |
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Sure, you only need the private key of your address. Most wallets allow to import private keys easily. You could also use a vanity address generator to determine the first letters for your address. You'll find the software for Win, Linux and Mac on https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/VanitygenChecked around, seems that thing is a trojan. I have downloaded and scanned the windows binary I got from github using the link on that page in the past. AFAIK, it was clean back then. Did you scan it yourself? I've read quite some pages from Reddit and other sources, seems the whole thing is giving away your keys somehow. I won't even try the online services... tried one with 6 letters and email came after few minutes, so funny. |
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Sure, you only need the private key of your address. Most wallets allow to import private keys easily. You could also use a vanity address generator to determine the first letters for your address. You'll find the software for Win, Linux and Mac on https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/VanitygenChecked around, seems that thing is a trojan. |
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Sure, you only need the private key of your address. Most wallets allow to import private keys easily. You could also use a vanity address generator to determine the first letters for your address. You'll find the software for Win, Linux and Mac on https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/VanitygenThank you very much, dude! |
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I downloaded some months ago a wallet that allowed to set up the first letters of an address, but I can't recall the name, can somebody help me?
Also another question: is it possible to import that address into another wallet?
The thing is, I would like to set up a custom address, but then I would like to use another wallet, because I didn't like that wallet at that time at least, because it had some glitches and spell errors.
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