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81  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 04, 2023, 09:05:21 AM
My body is ready for up only season.


@rektcapital
Only 8 months left until the #BTC  Halving

After that, $BTC will most likely enjoy parabolic Post-Halving upside

In the meantime, there is scope for at least one or two deeper BTC corrections

We're slowly running out of Pre-Halving retracement opportunities
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1687037871822147584

This is going the most monitored halving ever. A lot of money is expecting a bull run until 6 months after halving. I am not sure how can we have severe retracements, even if as usual mixed feelings here: opportunity to stack more sats, bitcoin just being bitcoin vs the joy of seeing hyperbitcoinisation a little bit closer.

I think we were robbed of a parabolic, blow off top in 2021. The macro financial, worldwide situation due to COVID and China banning bitcoin at such a pivotal moment in the bull run stopped us going to over $100,000 imo.

This time we have multiple probable Spot ETF approvals by big players. I hope I’m not being deluded when I say, I think $180,000 to $250,000 is likely in 2025 at some point.

Life changing money, brother.

I also think a big part of the lack of blow off top was all the scam exchanges, lending companies, and other fucktards selling off all the bitcoin of their clients to buy shitcoins instead.

These are certainly all valid reasons for the way the price developed after the last halving, though I wouldn't too quickly discount the fact that with every halving the amount of reductions is also 50% smaller, hence I believe (as others already said here) the effect of the halving we will see will be weaker with every new halving. I believe this will somewhat flatten the curve (pardon the pun) over time and therefor the following "winter"/bear season might also not be as cold as it was in the past, so to speak.

With the 1st halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 3600 coins
With the 2nd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 1800 coins
With the 3rd halving the daily new BTC supply was reduced by 900 coins
The next halving will reduce the daily supply "only" by 450 coins (only 12.5% reduction of the first halvings reduction!)

Ofc I'd love to see the price to go the moon in the next bullrun and growing adaption and the much touted ETF thingies might offset the above described effect of weaker halvings to some degree.
We'll see, but I consider everything 6-figure ATH in the next two years as perfectly fine for my expectations. (Could perfectly live with a 300k ATH too, no problem there  Grin)


Hard disagree here with you psycodad because when you look at the halving in USD terms it is substantial:



Assuming the price of the next halving is at 30k as in the table above, that is a decrease of 13.5 million USD value daily. That is big, and far bigger than in the past. The halving effect will continue to be a big deal IMO.







82  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 03, 2023, 01:09:10 PM
My body is ready for up only season.


@rektcapital
Only 8 months left until the #BTC  Halving

After that, $BTC will most likely enjoy parabolic Post-Halving upside

In the meantime, there is scope for at least one or two deeper BTC corrections

We're slowly running out of Pre-Halving retracement opportunities
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1687037871822147584

This is going the most monitored halving ever. A lot of money is expecting a bull run until 6 months after halving. I am not sure how can we have severe retracements, even if as usual mixed feelings here: opportunity to stack more sats, bitcoin just being bitcoin vs the joy of seeing hyperbitcoinisation a little bit closer.

I think we were robbed of a parabolic, blow off top in 2021. The macro financial, worldwide situation due to COVID and China banning bitcoin at such a pivotal moment in the bull run stopped us going to over $100,000 imo.

This time we have multiple probable Spot ETF approvals by big players. I hope I’m not being deluded when I say, I think $180,000 to $250,000 is likely in 2025 at some point.

Life changing money, brother.

I also think a big part of the lack of blow off top was all the scam exchanges, lending companies, and other fucktards selling off all the bitcoin of their clients to buy shitcoins instead.
83  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 24, 2023, 02:05:39 PM
I'm putting my buys at low 27k. All good if it just pumps from here though.
84  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 28, 2023, 12:39:41 PM

Pretty much everytime that picture gets posted the price drops. Might make a good trading indicator.
85  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 22, 2023, 11:02:27 AM
30k is nice Smiley
86  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 16, 2023, 08:53:38 AM

I wouldn't mind it....at all.

From James (InvestAnswers):

https://youtu.be/n68S0741wW4?t=1581

TL;DR Claims that there could be ONLY 416 thou wholecoiners (watch the whole vid to see how he arrives at that number).
Only 3.38% millionaires can get a whole (one) bitcoin by 2026 (assuming that there will be 100mil millionaires by 2026) or 0.141 btc/millionaire.
Sounds impossible? Follow earlier points in the vid.

Unfortunantely, if people keep their coins on shitty exchanges like Binance there can be 10s of millions of wholecoiners.
87  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2023, 12:46:59 PM
What would BTC be whiteout it’s annoying days  Roll Eyes

It would mean you wouldn't have time to buy as many.
88  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2023, 08:01:35 AM
Price sucks but am taking the opportunity for a nice sized buy at around 24000. That's the bottom of the channel we've been in since the lows and also an area that saw a lot of buying and selling from January to March period. Enjoy the cheap coins everyone.
89  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 10, 2023, 11:26:33 PM
Bitcoin dominance charts



Yeah it's shitcoin chaos out there right now.

Funny how when the dodgy exchanges have issues all the thousands of shitcoins they have listed go to utter crap. Pretty sure the number one scam for these exchanges is to get people to deposit Bitcoin then the exchange sells those Bitcoin to pump scam coins.

Even though Bitcoin may take a temporary price hit, Binance getting wiped out would be a blessing long term.
90  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2023, 01:18:34 PM
I’m glad to see the price seemingly holding at $25K. The charts look like we should be dropping straight to $20K, so I think the fact that we haven’t on this latest Binance news is a good sign. I’m still not convinced we won’t see the head and shoulders pattern complete and take us to $20K, but it seems to be so far so good at the moment.

I'm surprised the Binance news even matters. If they go down it would be a good thing for BTC, I'm positive they manipulate the shit out of the price by selling fake coins, just like FTX was doing. Good to cut these turds loose but I don't think we'll be lucky enough to have Binance vanish into the wind.
91  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 06, 2023, 09:23:14 AM
I'm starting the believe that the more RnD money you lose as a Tech company, the more profitable you actually become.

Its a loss leader for sure, I agree with this point of view but its not like we havent seen this before and it can be a success if they are moving towards mainstream at all.   Theres plenty of rich people out there or those who will borrow to buy something unique, make it Apple and you add a legion of fans of which Iam not one but I do understand their customer loyalty is off the charts compared to most brands.   Main concern is that unique product and also to be ahead of the crowd, if they get yet another product that has a large share of a growing market then its a success.  They carve out a profit later from that foothold they garner by acting now.

BTC to meet 24k I think before we can judge its performance vs the 200 week average, it should rebound above but the MA itself is not support.  The closing prices of last summer is where I think it should hit and bounce.

I'm thinking lower 23 high 22. Will be a great buying opportunity.
92  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 31, 2023, 09:43:09 AM
Just in case anyone is wondering why chartbuddy is being a prick it is because the global economy is going to shit at a faster pace. Bad numbers in China and Europe have come out today, and this will continue to get worse (as it has for the last year now) before it gets better. That is until it gets so bad that the CBs and Govs step in with more brrrr.

Going off PMIs, yield curves, retail numbers, credit numbers, etc. I'm expecting this to come to a conclusion in the Q3, but timing is impossible so I am probably wrong. What I do know for sure though is that it will happen and when it does make sure you have some dry powder ready because the way out of (temporary) of this global deflationary monetary system will send asset prices to the moon once again.

It is this next brrr that will really strangle the poor and middle class, so hold onto your Bitcoin, you're going to need it.
93  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 30, 2023, 12:17:24 PM


Ha yeah, I get neck and back pain from sitting. Will be upgrading to a treadmill desk at some point as apparently this is the best thing to do.
94  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 25, 2023, 07:16:55 AM
I feel like the next week or two is going to be pretty scary for investments of all kinds. With politicians seemingly playing chicken over a debt ceiling agreement and equities already beginning to selloff, you have to be worried that Bitcoin could see a major dip here. I’m not a believer that Bitcoin will be a savior asset that goes up when everything else crashes.

Real problem is the credit markets and they are only getting worse each day. Global crash will probably hit within the next few months followed closely behind by a global easing. Any crash is a buying opportunity.
95  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2023, 01:39:22 PM
Reality has an anti-woke bias.
Man is man.
Woman is woman.


https://twitter.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1660455838375616512?t=L0RwmbmoOjLZcuvTat7qkg&s=19

(Males become female by changing organs but cannot change bones.)
Due to which a man is unable to give birth even if he is a woman.

not exactly true . the bone structure part is true. but you do not change your organs you simply mutilate them.

ie when you operate on a girl and mutilate her pussy into a dick and balls she/he can not get pregnant or make a girl get pregnant.

or if you savage a guys johnson and balls into a pussy and whatever else then he/she can’t get pregnant or get any girl pregnant.

So it is not a true transgender it is a true trans mutation.

I have zero issue with an adult wanting to mutilate their body into a sterile body.

But I do have an issue on pushing this on anyone under 16-18 as kids do not need to make life long decisions about their reproductive abilities.

If science could really change you from boy to girl and back to boy.

or from girl to boy and back to girl fine but until we can it is simply mutilation of your body.

The really crazy part about the trans movement to me is that they say the parts you have don't determine your sex, but then they all want to rush to change their parts...  They say that they want to be accepted for who they are, but then want to literally change who they are.  It's all so twisted I think you have to have a certain level of mental illness to see any logic in their thinking.

However, Bitcoin doesn't care what you do to your dick.  It's back on the uptrend after testing the trading range lows over the weekend.  I wouldn't be surprised if we were back to testing $30K by the end of the month.

I say this to people about many things "you can't understand crazy". However, I guess if you also have a compatible crazy then there might be a chance to understand the crazy. But then you just end up with 2 crazies being crazy.
96  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 17, 2023, 11:38:49 AM
Crypto news are a bit depressing don't you think ? Much more FUD and crap than positive news. Well a bit like real news I guess.

The ledger thing for example, they provide hardware wallets that help you be your own bank without too much complication (seed is secure even if the computer/smartphone isn't), then they offer a service where you need to KYC and give up your seed to a third party, makes sense NOT !

Who cares what ledger do though. They are just a company, they aren't Bitcoin. The market will determine if that service is useful to people and being how many stupid people there are in the world I'm sure it will get used. Effect on Bitcoin is zero, the bocks keep coming, as always.
97  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2023, 12:22:03 PM
I don't know if anyone has seen the fees recently but they are back down to low double digits. Why? Because high fees are not currently sustainable, too small a market. No intervention is required on the fee front for probably decades, if ever, the free market will sort it via good old supply and demand. The solution to high fees is high fees.
98  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2023, 12:38:38 PM


Free market does as it does. That's the beauty of Bitcoin, no intervention is required (we are not a shitcoin like eth). Let's keep it that way and ignore the fools.
99  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2023, 11:48:41 AM
The average block size is dropping back down towards normal levels.

https://data.nasdaq.com/data/BCHAIN/AVBLS-bitcoin-average-block-size






Yep. Not over yet I'm sure but just like commodities the solution to higher prices is higher prices.
100  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2023, 05:58:19 AM

There have been some crazy blocks. Look at the fee span on this one. I wish there was a way to order the transactions by highest/lowest sat/vB

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