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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368782 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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May 09, 2023, 03:15:33 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (6), vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1), AlcoHoDL (1), darkangel11 (1), DdmrDdmr (1)

You know you made it when current Bitcoin fees do not bother you because you are hodling. But it is hurts to see the ordinal scammers smearing Bitcoin's name with their Bullshit-Rort-Con 20 tokens.

Well, at least the miners are making decent profits off the idiots who actually fall for the BRC20 scam. Enjoy it while it lasts (Protip: it wont).
Yes i said it in another thread, the only "good side" of this its the miners are going to do some good money.

Anyways i hope this stop more sooner than later. We didnt know the real consequence of this shit yet.

Also thinking in the actual conjuncture its not good for us to show this shit performance in term of transaction when the normal banks are crumbling, we need to show a very good shape and show us like a solution against the eye of people no like a new wave of problem with "colluded transactions" or millions of queue payments.
 **I added the above emphasis

Who has the correct asymmetric information is not always going to be clear, and accordingly, I doubt that there is any need to show bitcoin as if it were some kind of perfect product, when it is not.. and many of us already know that bitcoin is already eating the lunch of various fiat systems, so the mere fact that some (or a lot) of folks are not ready, willing or able to see it, then sucks to be them.. they will see it when they see it, and perhaps at that time, BTC prices will be much higher than they are right now, and they could have had been building their BTC position in these here times rather than being distracted into NOT buying BTC merely because bitcoin does not appear to be perfect enough for them to be able to see.

(cut)
Thanks for an in-depth analysis of my post Cheesy
I see your point and completely agree, especially that I have no real data to back my claims. It's just a feeling that I have and I hope it's a good one, cause I'm out of cash to buy another dip.

hahahahaha..

Fair enough.  I surely prefer the price to go up rather than down, but many times, I have found that there are many instances in which it is NOT good to run out of fiat to be able to continue to buy on the way down, even when we may well believe that it is not likely to go there.

I don't even know whether I should list all of the times in which I ran out of money or came pretty damned close to running out of money, so when the BTC price dipped and continued to dip and I continued to buy, the amounts that I was buying at or near (what ended up being) the bottom ended up being relatively token amounts.. but I still wanted to keep up the ability to buy on the way down, even if it was ONLY small amount.

Since i am going down this road, I will provide a couple of examples.

In January 2015 BTC prices dipped all the way down to about $156 or something like that, and it stayed there for right around a day or two, and I made one or two purchases.. that were below $200 at about $180-ish.. I mostly did not have any money to buy because I had been buying all the way down from about $400 to $200 and the BTC price kept dipping and/or refused to go up.. and then in about October 2015 when it dipped down to nearly $200.. I was able to buy some BTC, but still not a whole hell of a lot, since I had mostly been buying the whole year when the BTC prices were mostly bouncing between $220 and $270.. and probably spending a large amount of that time below $250.  That whole year (2015), I felt like I had mostly ran out of cash.. and I ended up adding about 20% to 25% to my BTC stash - and even though I spent the whole year with my BTC stash in the negative, I had brought my average cost per BTC down from about $550 in the beginning of the year to about $500 per BTC in the end of the year, and all of that likely made a difference, even though my portfolio was in the negative until about May 2016.. when the BTC price went mostly above my average cost per BTC and for the most part stayed there... (and of course, no guarantees of repetition)..

A more recent example, would have had been in 2022 with my mostly preparing and hoping in the earlier part of the year that the BTC price would (at worst) bottom out around upper $20ks or lower $30ks and I had BTC buy orders down to about $20k-ish that I though would not end up filling, but I was glad to keep them there... and then in about May 2022 when the BTC price dropped so quickly below $35k.. I was like "oh shit... this is not going as anticipated" and I ended up cancelling and restructuring a lot of my buy orders between $21k-ish and $33k-ish and caused them to go down to $19k-ish.. and then ultimately, I had to restructure my bottoms several times.. as we know what happened (and continued to happen in 2022), the dip kept dipping.. and so it felt kind of good to be able to continue to be able to buy, even though I mostly felt bad a lot of the time.. until more recently (earlier this year when we had a pretty damned decent uppity move to get us back above the 200-week moving average.. ..which was actually just below $22k in May 2022 and currently is a bit higher than $26k... so it is nice to get back above it.. even if it is far from guaranteed that "we" are going to stay above it.. in our resumption of UPpity.. and I am hardly going to proclaim to have knowledge that goes much beyond 50/50 when it comes to such a question regarding what are the odds that "we" are able to stay above the 200-week moving average...even though the 200-week moving average has been a pretty damned decent bottom indicator and it has continued to move up through all of bitcoin's history.. and there are not any guarantees in regards to always moving up either.. even though it has been doing so.. "so far."

My punchline has always gravitated towards trying to be able to be prepared financially and psychologically as much as we are able to do for price movements in either direction.. and even the extreme-ass ones... and surely bitcoin has had those kinds of dynamics that I believe to be part of the ways that battles take place with such a disruptive and revolutionary product in which the status quo richie are being removed from their wealth and fighting it all the way.. so the picture is not going to be clean, neat and/or unambiguous along this journey.. and there are likely going to continue to be casualties along the way, and any of us who prefer to NOT be (or become) a casualty should be attempting to keep some value in both camps.. even if we are largely and mostly end up being overly-committed in the camp of dee cornz... in order to maintain financial and psychological health along the path and even in the various end stages.. or places that we may well be wanting to enjoy some of our likely ongoing profits along the way.. (again, no guarantee with our being on the upper levels of the citadel status either)..


(cut)
Thanks for an in-depth analysis of my post Cheesy
I see your point and completely agree, especially that I have no real data to back my claims. It's just a feeling that I have and I hope it's a good one, cause I'm out of cash to buy another dip.
You know you made it when current Bitcoin fees do not bother you because you are hodling. But it is hurts to see the ordinal scammers smearing Bitcoin's name with their Bullshit-Rort-Con 20 tokens.

Well, at least the miners are making decent profits off the idiots who actually fall for the BRC20 scam. Enjoy it while it lasts (Protip: it wont).
It will last long enough to bring BTC price to ?

I say they are looking to get BTC to drop to 25K or 24k
I don't think they ( meaning the scammers) are looking for a certain price of bitcoin.
They're focused on their scam pepes and other shitcoins and bitcoin is just a means to an end to them. It's a road they're traveling on to bring fake money from home to a lambo dealership.
You could be right and if you are it will be over very soon.
Humans can't have nice things.

Hahahahaha

Bitcoin is a nice thing, even though it does not appear to be.. especially with the various battles along the way.. but if we do not get too distracted by the battle and appreciate my lil precious for the various ways that it is powerful and lovely, then we will likely not be distracted into selling too soon or not buying enough.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

have fun staying poor.. plebs who fail /refuse to appreciate and pee pare their lil selfies for the ongoing beauty of my lil precious.
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May 09, 2023, 03:20:53 AM
Merited by somac. (2)

https://mempool.space/block/0000000000000000000430bf9f7566adc062e14a1f0feff7b132bf4e9a261d40

 

Wow. That only used to happen when somebody fat-fingered.
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May 09, 2023, 03:22:17 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Tropic countries when they see people taking melatonin suplements:

Really?.


you are mixing melatonin with melanin, buddy.

you get more melanin (dark skin pigment) when exposed to the sun; in tropics more, of course.
A different substance.
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May 09, 2023, 03:26:17 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

I got a letter today telling me the bad news.  Fuck.  They're offering 2 years of identity theft protection services but what good is that when my Social Insurance Number is forever?  I don't have much with Mackenzie but the first thing I do will be to move it out... I'm thinking Bitcoin.
Can you not change your social insurance number? I guess it would be a pain in the arse to change it everywhere, but I'd hope they'd have something in place to secure people who have had their data breached.



 I didn't think I could but after reading your post, I looked into it and if I can prove it was stolen, I can change it!   I'm going to go to Service Canada first thing Monday with my letter and try.  Thanks for prompting me Smiley



Canada once again better than the USA !

 Well, I don't want to get my cart ahead of my horse but I'll keep my  fingers crossed.


please keep us informed.

I would be interested to see if you can get it done.

I will check on my US SSN again.

I know there are no attacks on it so far, but it is stolen and it was passed around on the dark web.

I think the only thing helping me is my name is one of a kind.

I am a reverse of John Smith. I have never found anyone anywhere with my name.

 Well I found out today that unless I can prove fraudulent activity using my SIN,  it is not possible to change it.  So far, all I have is the letter saying it was compromised in a hack which isn't sufficient.  Sad

fuck the USA and Canada. oh well. we are in the same continent so same rules. Wink

 This is a bit tangential but within the bounds of 'same continent same rules.'  I was reading a Scientific American article about melatonin today.  I actually have given my daughter a 3mg sublingual cherry flavoured melatonin on very rare occasions when she can't sleep and this article addressed that issue:

excerpt from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/should-you-give-your-kid-melatonin/

 The article says:

"In the U.S., melatonin is categorized as a dietary supplement and thus doesn’t require a prescription, whereas in the European Union, the U.K., Australia, Japan and Canada, it is available by prescription only. For kids, there’s no universally agreed-upon dosage or age at which they can start taking the supplement."

 
 I know for a fact that in Canada melatonin is treated as a supplement and is available OTC just like in the US with no prescription required.   I find it disheartening that one of the oldest and highly respected science publications can't get their facts straight.  I did some searching online and it seems to be a common misconception that melatonin is outright banned in Canada... it is not.  There are 18 pages of products containing melatonin listed in the government of Canada's Natural and Non-prescription Health products database any of which are available OTC.

 Now I can't trust any of the article.  I might as well just take an unscientific poll here!  Who thinks it's okay to give my kids melatonin once in a while?



I think what you are doing is better than giving a kid a bottle of milk laced with kalour/alcohol
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May 09, 2023, 03:31:11 AM

Tropic countries when they see people taking melatonin suplements:

Really?.


you are mixing melatonin with melanin, buddy.

you get more melanin (dark skin pigment) when exposed to the sun; in tropics more, of course.
A different substance.


 I think tropical fruit to them is like turkey to us... ZZzzzzzzz
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May 09, 2023, 04:00:38 AM
Merited by coolcoinz (1)

.....i would really like to know Satoshis opinion on that shit.

Fuck satoshi.

Who cares what he thinks (or thought)?  Can't go crying to daddy satoshi.



We're BIG boys and girls now.... on our own.

 Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry



 Kiss Kiss Kiss Kiss Kiss








 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy



[edited out]
it's up to the market to decide.  
Bitcoin is the most secure database humanity has invented, and the market participants will outbid each other for being able to use it.  

Right now only a bunch of freaks are using it. But wait until mainstream catches up. We have seen nothing yet... (compare it to the internet)

Lookie uie poo-ie.. ...  Shocked Shocked Shocked

All diplomatic (and professional) about the matter.

 Tongue Tongue Tongue
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May 09, 2023, 04:01:16 AM


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May 09, 2023, 05:51:16 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

"The 2024 halving could send Bitcoin's price 4-8x higher."



Twitter Thread https://twitter.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1655566037838962691
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May 09, 2023, 05:58:19 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)


There have been some crazy blocks. Look at the fee span on this one. I wish there was a way to order the transactions by highest/lowest sat/vB

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May 09, 2023, 06:00:10 AM

What does a high transaction fee usually imply? Are we expecting a bull run coming soon, or what? Because the last time I experienced this high transaction fee, the market has been very bullish, so what is it now?
Spam from greedy gullible people, see The severity of the Ordinals Attack is increasing.


Thanks for referring me to that thread, I'll get myself aware of what really is happening now.

Right now the highest is $7.87 for high priority, way too low compared to yesterday's over $20.
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May 09, 2023, 09:05:24 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

one day there will be sidechains / second layers for all this stuff to run on Bitcoin, if we like it or not.  mEth and all these other projects will die.

Bitcoin will be the settlement layer for everything - even scams.  Fees will go into the thousands of USD.  One single onchain transaction will settle millions of offchain transactions.

these BRC20/ordinals are just the beginning of what's going to happen within the next decade(s).  We can already see them push exchanges like BChinance to implement Lightning.


only my2cts

Maybe I don’t understand something enough, but from a technical point of view, how are sidechains or second layers fundamentally different from other altcoins, besides the fact that they use fees directly in bitcoins, and not in an intermediate token? In fact, what you are saying has been around for a long time, because all other networks are the big second layer, which is built on the basis of bitcoin. And in the case of different tokens, there is not much difference whether they will be on the network with some declared intermediate token or with an imitation of bitcoin as an intermediate token. The real bitcoin is only on the bitcoin blockchain and nowhere else!
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May 09, 2023, 12:57:34 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), JayJuanGee (1), Volgastallion (1)

"The 2024 halving could send Bitcoin's price 4-8x higher."



Twitter Thread https://twitter.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1655566037838962691

The key word is "could" as in all other speculations - and here it's just about playing with numbers because x4-x8, in this case, refers to the current price, and if we took the last ATH as a reference value, then we couldn't even write x2 -x4. In fact, his analysis is very simple and has already been seen countless times.

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