Don't absolutely require yourself to stop betting, only to bring the betting cost back into an amount which can be budgeted for.   Its more sensible to adjust then hope to absolute dead stop anything.    First step to reducing betting is to just make sure the bill is not going to be a problem to your normal lifestyle costs, consider the game as just a game dont be tempted to say I must bet large amounts to pay off my debts.
   The secret is consistency, go for a consistent path don't fool yourself with random luck and a big win like a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow be more realistic and imo the big problems will reduce over time there is no gambling problem at that point.   Only if you fail to control your spending you must face not being to play or gamble at all, that only should be 1% of people who bet imo not most who can just adjust their course for realistic gameplay.

2023 was a Consolidation year in the best possible way we arrested the decline and rose well.   Positive to end the year we had alot of up and down along the way and a few doubts imo.   I think it was a good year to buy on but we only recognized this as more obvious coming into December.   30k was only definitively defeated at Nov start tbh.
  My Poll question is quite simple how do we develop in 2024, explosively upwards perhaps, a more sedate incline like this year, flat or is it all negative from this high point; a repeat of 2021 high tide mark going into 2024 is of course possible.


Poll rules,   votes alterable now & for 31 days then no more votes or changes.   Feel free to take January entire as as a bellwether for the rest of the year, December 2024 is the predictive BTC price in question



Heres a longer term weekly candles graph.   Fibonacci and 200 week in yellow and 50 week in blue.  I will only especially comment later in the month & on the MA later; monthly bars might be better over 5 years but I think people prefer weekly as more relatable.

Having to bet sounds like a danger signal, maybe some sirens going off there :p   Bet every other game, collect research on the team you bet etc.   Nobody can win every time so in theory not betting some games does actually improve your win ratio and overall profit, its just knowing when.  For sure a break is good sometimes as you may observe more when not biased in your view to win or not.  If not a skip then half the amount bet could be completely wise decision to take.

We have the crescendo effect in play at present possibly ?    Seems like there's a rising trend but also resistance in this area and so range is becoming constricted as we continue.  Perhaps resolution in the new year.



Its wavering back and forth across the weekly average, essentially its in a flat spin though some might say we are positive Iam a bit cautious.   Add in the transition from holidays back to full working weeks not long now, just that can be enough to throw off the balance between bids and offers.  BTC is already a volatile price movement often, we can easily move down in my conclusion and of course we can still go up further I just side with profit taking being quite possible short term.

I would make this argument on multiple thread topics because the game is separate from the money, dont be all about the money and nothing else as you will be easily played out and will frustrate yourself imo.      You can lose and gain at the same time, lose money gain experience, gain knowledge of how better to play in future this can be said to be a positive in sum total despite costing money perhaps consider it a lesson.
  This is a large part of why I would recommend to start humble with any game, be ready to lose when the game odds are against you.  Gain the weight of the game in your hand so you can aim better is how I phrase maybe every game is random but I personally I enjoy a game I can feel has a path to glory  .  If starting small, the lessons are cheaper then you can bet more with greater experience and knowledge, the gains will be greater then cost you.    Biggest cost should really be your time and effort, number one reason to lose is poor patience and just wanting everything immediately.    I think lack of patience is no fun but people have to play how they feel best this is just my scenario for building a better chance of success, theres never any guarantees hence patience is so helpful imo.

Nominally you can double your holding, you shouldnt be surprised you should expect this just by referencing inflation in your country.  BTC only has to hold its ground to appear to gain.     Value wise its harder to say as multiple assets can gain value over time, I wouldnt ever say hold BTC and exclude all others mostly I think owning a house not paying rent is one of the most sensible things.   Like BTC you dont want to overpay for a house, you shouldnt buy into the BTC hype and overpay for it either just go slow and steady and sure double is quite fair imo.
  In terms of 'mistakes' I will admit to selling BTC around 100 to 200, lets pretend it was nicely high at 200 but all the same I needed the money to pay off some of the cost to mining and acquiring the BTC in the first place.   I wouldnt advise anyone to overly lean into the gains of BTC more then is safe for them, everyone needs to meet some expenses so you should just carry on as usual dont hitch all your hopes on BTC gaining.  BTC is a wild volatile market that wont follow the timetable you had hoped for,  just keep some of the spare value you have in BTC and dont back off when it looks grim as thats the best value time most likely.

Hyper is fairly rare, its defined by 100% per month ?  cant remember the exact definition but normal excess inflation is enough to fell a good economy.      30% to 100% inflation per year is dangerously high yet a far more normal occurrence in a modern economy.   Those figures could describe parts of Europe at various times, UK, Argentina right now I heard has reached 3 figures.   Its not so rare but also we cannot say this is hyperinflation, however its still massively damaging to various business and the economy in total.

How you survive is you avoid relying on cash value especially over night and over weekends or any closure times.  The money itself becomes a great cost and burden so all businesses become inefficient especially compared to those external to that nation who have the stability.     I think China some business were storing deposits of copper to exchange as value during business deals, this was outlawed by their dictatorship.   In Vietnam they use gold bars during a house exchange as other prices would vary too much.

Blame your maths teacher maybe for not instructing you better on how to calculate odds vs the game chances to win.  Blame perhaps education generally but ultimately a person can educate themselves most of it, most of good gambling is self discipline.  Ironically blaming others is the path downwards because you will never learn to stop or control your actions that way, the whole premise of who to blame for your choices made freely to gamble is a poor one it will reinforce and repeat the loss most likely.  There is no real fairness in life but try not to blame others for any choice you may correct or learn better, sometimes the lesson costs but is worth taking.

I will vote for the watch but with one very important proviso.    Iam going to need to be gifted the expertise in the watch making and history to reflect the market for that asset, give me that depth of understanding and appreciation and I can justify owning such a nice luxury.  I have no need for a watch in this modern era, its nice I like the idea but if anything I'd rather own the watch my dad gave me before he passed away.  The reason I wear no watch every day is because I frequently have to lift very heavy awkward objects, scrapping my arms or wrist against maybe brickwork or a rock wall which will break anything quickly; anything nice I own or wear gets wrecked or worn down.   So the only watch I could wear would have to be indestructible I think even the best ones will scratch and break under blunt force.  Unfortunately Im bit too rough to wear anything nice, just the way it is so it'd be kept in a box and never seen most of the time which is a waste mostly unless for investment hence my proviso.

Higher tiers require more thinking but anyone lucky enough to hold 1 whole Bitcoin in balance accumulating that interest should consider at least the lower tiers to receive more interest.    Its the first few tiers which have the best value imo, later on the highest tiers that kind of immediate value tapers off because its leaning towards the percentage cashback on bets.   Basically the more you have the more you benefit from those benefits given by holding the FUN.   The rest of us perhaps more modest in our worldly digital wealth are  on the side of the wheel spins bonus, you hope for good luck where as the % benefits are certain.  Judge for yourself of course but I think people who hold a whole bitcoin are fairly rare,  now we have funds and corporations even who acquire these limited Bitcoins and with 6 billion people having a whole bitcoin a less rare event then the origins of this forum and this site.
  I was never stuck on having to own a whole coin, I knew fractions were fine but now I wish I had kept an entire coin as my minimum of course the price rose.

In 2024 looking forward theres the USA election (also a few other countries but the amount of publicity from USA is a tidal wave ), in recent years thats probably been my biggest bet.  Macro economics and by necessity politics is all I read about every day so I might as well bet on it, hope we get it listed on this site also.

The random bet gambling will have more addicts then sports bets or card games with skill I feel its that random luck effect that can become addictive perhaps.   If forced to reason to improve your odds some then you are in a different frame of mind, more considered and a longer appreciation time is less conducive to addiction or at least thats my theory.  There are of course glory supporters in sports who dont reason at all just bet for their team but I dont see how thats as addictive as you know the team, watch the game so its more drawn out but purely a bet on random luck and its a fast hit win or lose thats where I think it can become irrational more easily and control is lost on the gambling self control.

No 32k is too apprehensive, we can sell but dont forget the buy that follows a sell off.   We will not end 2024 at 32k though I would not say thats the worst case scenario but generally we should recover after negative news.  ETF isnt everything in the world, if we never get the ETF its not a barrier imo
   I agree on Jan or the spring months, if we relate to last halvening of course a sell is possible with the worst possible news.   Hard to state larger natural negatives then the pandemic and shutdown, the millions who died (14m est UN) from that is all negative yet we recovered.   The ETF is artificial, its not natural news to a few people it wont even be taken as a negative on a refusal.  The purists dont even want the ETF and Im sympathetic to their thinking because BTC will amount to alot more then a symbol on a stock exchange; it was estimated by some to replace the entire prior means of trading so how can the ETF be the largest negative its not.
   Im wary of all the other negatives for BTC for the world generally, if these do not occur in 2024 if we find a way to keep building then stay positive and remember price is just a label not a cap to value.

Its not that bad news would be unexpected, further resistance to a BTC ETF has to be known to be possible.   Its the manner and definition in which it takes place, if we have an absolute denial of any possible BTC ETF then I would expect a sell off to at least mid 30k prices.   Possible further but a correction then back above to 35k would indicate just how seriously that was taken; 35k then might be a ceiling etc. market perception would be developing.
   Long term I dont think it matters as much as people expect, ETF or not BTC prospects are really not about a tradable quote on the various stock markets.   BTC has to be more then just another symbol swung into and out by the speculators and leveraged traders.  The whole story about BTC doesnt come to rely on an ETF as that is centralism and its easy to see why authorities resist the idea of BTC being accepted into the fold as it is so different and unguided by traditional governance.

All paper money created is related on a top down value dictatorship anyway.  If that central bank fails in some way then the money which is your money will cease to hold value in any case, in a sense after that being true it doesnt matter as much where the money is stored in the various banks related to that central bank.  The top bank ensures all other users of the currency follow the rules set or are closed down in favor of a better acting party.
  Its not a secret door, most measures taken by central banks and the government in issuance of currency are openly targeting currency inflation by design.   They no longer promise to honor a set value but aim to devalue by about 2% every year.   The continual funding and liquidity given to all banks is part of this deliberate policy against hard money, its very different to even as recent as the 1980's

Relaxing can only possibly apply if you stay within your limits.   IF you bet the house then how can it be relaxing, as a game designed to be a leisure past time then yes gambling is the easier path then trading otherwise i don't especially agree.   Reason why OP might be more wrong then right is too many people walk into a bad situation lackadaisically, do the simple thing and have a set limited budget every day then mistakes are purely just for that day its all fun and games then.

Thats a good graph, simple amalgamation across many years.   I think the conclusion we can easily realize resistance here is a fair one and the mirror of that is possibly a range with lower support around mid 30's to 40k could occur.  
  Lets be optimistic and say 40k for support, I have the 50 day average about there.   Staying above that measure still makes us strongly bullish like the early days of 2021 when there was alot of profit taking but still a good trend up intact.   If we havent even lost 42k in this week and the next then we arent even testing strength to that extent and I'd agree an attempt to surpass that resistance overhead becomes more probable and further gains and occur.   Maybe we stay bullish all the way upto halvening, I did not hope we'd be that positive tbh its often more complicated and testing.

Be realistic is best and yes its possible some people can make money but nobody makes money on every bet its just a hope that on average across a days betting you can make a profit. Do that enough times and you can argue its a regular profit.    I just dont think  its easy at all, anyone who does think its easy is likely to make a misstep or misjudge the risk and lose money.   Most realistic true thing I can say is  that every bet every game has a cost to play that game, to make a profitable bet you pay that fee then make a profit possibly, judging the best value bets is I think the only way to make a profit overall.   I dont have that level of skill personally, to judge value perfectly and grab the odds worth taking refusing the bad value bets takes alot imo.

There is no established connection from Trump to any illegal actions that is the biggest contention.   You dont have to like Trumps words and speeches but to hold him criminally responsible for saying something politically would be the wrong route to take in terms of free speech and democracy overall.  Trump knows that, its the game he is playing but its also likely correct no judgement against him will hold without an actual full conviction criminally.  So far as I can tell he organised none of the actual physical actions that took place or had the intent to do so, none of his staff either.  Until they can prove a link, you cannot prosecute for words or bar him without that conviction it will be overturned.    This isnt Trump gate, he appears less guilty then Nixon at the time he left office for example going way back.
   Saying that I still dont think Trump has a chance of actual re-election as he has lost the swing voters it appears.    Just having Republican support is not enough and not all of them are on his side anyway again he has some failure on his hands for sure;  I cant remember anyone losing after 1 term and coming back but never say never.   The bet for now is does he get the Rep ticket and for now I think so but also I would bet against Trump there after.   On that basis I would hope the Biden odds go up slightly but mostly thats how I would favor betting on a long term or 2024 year end bet.

I dont generally read the small print for alot of things but also I expect at that at least some will and any big problem would be raised on a forum such as this.  This is the worth of being a member of the forum you are not just one person alone but part of a group with a common interest and theres power in that.
   Its not to say you should not read the small print, I mean somebody has to be looking over these things but I dont expect to be entrapped in some web of lawyer speak and be told well its on you. Im not a lawyer and its usually accepted Im not required to be a legal eagle just to take part in any website even a gambling site for adults it should be fair and open to be called a good site really, most would agree with that imo.     The other point is when I first sign up, that might just be all I do I would sign up but not expect to immediately place large amounts of money there.  A site has to build up some familiarity, recognition, trust and established reputation I guess.   So I might sign up then go see what others are doing, their experience maybe what others think is the best game but often it'll be a while before Im forced into deciding for sure if I trust a place.

To rebalance debts, recover losses from laws broken is not new news in terms of trade balance and agreements I think we can go back decades for moves against rogue governments.  We could speculate is USA doing this unilaterally do they have the backing all members of the WTO for example, not all but I think its not unprecedented action.
  Venezuela is one country I can think of regularly seizing the assets of foreign firms as evil capitalists not matching their governments agenda to empower their people with the control and ownership of everything.  Sadly that attitude didnt work out and the government is resolved to yet another military dictatorship failing and killing their own people while sitting on the largest oil reserves in the world they cannot use them properly or allow others to help them do so.  
   In any case Venezuela had to pay for the assets seized, they risked seizure of any good traded internationally.  Russia again has done this for decades not just Ukraine but often unable to respect international law and no doubt will continue in the same way, again they have regularly had assets seized in order to settle the debt.  Its still damaging and failure in business but the process to return back value lost is not a new occurrence.

Socgen just sold assets to a Russian company for example, in the middle of a war which is illegal occupation of a sovereign state but it would be a failure to block or fail to pay for these assets and expect no debt to be accrued.