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BTC seems paralyzed, seems like BTC doesnt like trumpy
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Hillary wins, Trump doesn't accept and starts riots on the streets. BTC up
hahahaha... I like the way you outline the various scenarios. Surely, this third scenario is an interesting one, but really does not seem that likely. Surely, it seems likely that Trump could create a little drama to the extent that he considers it helpful to his brand, but really it may seem a bit counter productive (to his Brand) to attempt to continue in any kind of persistent manner with this, if it were to play out in that third scenario direction. Trump hasnt to start anything. The atmosphere is already heated enough in his camp through his allegations the last months/weeks. He could even officialy declare he is against any sort of violence and you could potentially see mobsters and riots in certain states. |
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Eventually this will suppress the price -but if people realize that this is their last occasion to buy bitcoins before the gov closed the exchanges - then this can result in a mega pump.
from china? if i were in that situation i'd be having a mega dump and walking away somewhere around right about now if something like this was a dead cert. we've yet to see how a vibrant ish bitcoin scene would weather some type of government strangulation, and forget trying to block the protocol, all you gotta do to deter 99% of people is shut the exchanges, but i don't think many people are gonna stick around for a money that has no use to them. You are missing the point that the Chinese want to move funds out of China - bitcoin is one avenue to work around the $50K annually limit. If it becomes obvious that this avenue is being to be closed - then people will flock to move their funds as quickly as possible. how does one move funds "out of china" via bitcoin? chinese government wants your yuan to stay in china. it is called capital controls. if one buys bitcoin in china @ a chinese exchange the yuan do not leave china. the exchange has it now. it does not matter if you buy a ton of gold and bury it in your garden or if you buy a ton of bitcoin and bury them in the interwebs - no yuan is leaving the country. you misunderstand how their capitalcontrols are intended to work. they dont just want to hinder that yuan is leaving the country, they want to hinder the EXCHANGE of yuan to other currencies as it undermines their control of the exchange rate. they want to rule over the exchange rate between yuan/usd which is only possible if you forbid everyone to exchange apart from places where they are exactly determine the price. so bitcoin does undermine this, albeit to a very very minor extent cause its peanuts compared to the overall capital flows. are you suggesting that bitcoin purchases could possibly have a measurable effect on the value of yuan? a currency used by more than a billion people? nope, and thats why the chinese government is not very keen about banning btc. until now there is simply no necessity. the chin gov is keen about the exchange rate between yuan/usd thats all. edit: like i said albeit to a very very minor extent |
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China is not venezuela.
no but a crackdown could be even harder to organize for them. chinese folks i had contact with told me their government sucks when it comes to actually manage this vast country, in good parts of it there is basically anarchy. over 85% hash power are located in China.
no big deal. mining power is there cause of low electricity costs. if they go after miners, diff drops and miners in us, iceland, elsewhere get profitable. could even be a good thing as it would certainly mean less decentralization. China is not venezuela.
over 90% trading (fake or not) volume is in China.
fake volume is just that: fake volume. Almost every (> 90%) pumping money come from Chinese.
thats just an assumption. imo chinese exchanges follow western exchanges and not the other way around. but of course no one knows exactly what actual money flows are coming from china. Since the "warning" are already out, i guess it will happen really fast.
i guess if save this thread and push it again in one year from now nothing of substance will have happend expect that your account will be abolished at that time. i have seen hundreds of those folks in my years in bitcoin, they die as fast as they pop up. otherwise you could have used your real account, but you didnt. why so? cause you are afraid of ruining your reputation with spreading stuff like that. thats why. |
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You will soon see Chinese authority's actions after all these "news" "leak rumors" aka "warning to their own citizen".
you mean just like all the "authority's actions" we saw in 2013/14 after all those leak rumors? 2013 China clear declared bitcoin is not a currency but a commodity. On the central bank’s website the People's Bank of China said financial institutions and payment companies cannot give pricing in, buy and sell bitcoin or insure bitcoin-linked products. On 16 December it was speculated that the People's Bank of China had issued a new ban on third-party payment processors from doing business with bitcoin exchanges. On 1 April 2014 China Central Bank ordered commercial banks and payment companies to close bitcoin trading accounts in two weeks.Trading bitcoins by individuals is legal in China. And this makes bitcoin completely useless in China and you should be aware of it. Currently Chinese exchangers are accepting deposits directly via bank wire which was not allowed back in 2013. Those exchangers got their companies bank accounts closed right after the 2013 statement. However they just opened many private personal bank accounts to receive trader's fiat deposit at few months ago. I think such act in violation of regulations will be used in their prosecutions later. Now comes back to the capital control things. guess what China will do on them? you see the point is, there will be eventually some actions towards bitcoin from the chinese government. nevertheless this topic has been played out ad nauseam, so if it will happen OK, but dont expect anyone to start gettin hysterical about any rumors about it. that credibility is long gone. additionally to that there exists some valid doubt if and how those "actions" would reflect the price. it could even have an opposite effect just like in venezuela where the government cracked down on bitcoin and even brought miners into jail but the weekly bitcoin volume goes through the roof anyhow. its just a non-event and fud until actually something happens. any credibility in any kind of such rumors has been lost long time ago. |
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You will soon see Chinese authority's actions after all these "news" "leak rumors" aka "warning to their own citizen".
you mean just like all the "authority's actions" we saw in 2013/14 after all those leak rumors? |
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Eventually this will suppress the price -but if people realize that this is their last occasion to buy bitcoins before the gov closed the exchanges - then this can result in a mega pump.
from china? if i were in that situation i'd be having a mega dump and walking away somewhere around right about now if something like this was a dead cert. we've yet to see how a vibrant ish bitcoin scene would weather some type of government strangulation, and forget trying to block the protocol, all you gotta do to deter 99% of people is shut the exchanges, but i don't think many people are gonna stick around for a money that has no use to them. You are missing the point that the Chinese want to move funds out of China - bitcoin is one avenue to work around the $50K annually limit. If it becomes obvious that this avenue is being to be closed - then people will flock to move their funds as quickly as possible. how does one move funds "out of china" via bitcoin? chinese government wants your yuan to stay in china. it is called capital controls. if one buys bitcoin in china @ a chinese exchange the yuan do not leave china. the exchange has it now. it does not matter if you buy a ton of gold and bury it in your garden or if you buy a ton of bitcoin and bury them in the interwebs - no yuan is leaving the country. you misunderstand how their capitalcontrols are intended to work. they dont just want to hinder that yuan is leaving the country, they want to hinder the EXCHANGE of yuan to other currencies as it undermines their control of the exchange rate. they want to rule over the exchange rate between yuan/usd which is only possible if you forbid everyone to exchange apart from places where they are exactly determine the price. so bitcoin does undermine this, albeit to a very very minor extent cause its peanuts compared to the overall capital flows. |
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They are citing the Bloomberg article as the source. But that article was pulled.
so its basically just an echo of the ZH induced fud that is now finding its way to chinese media |
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Not really his EW based prediction though right?
to me it looks like EW, but i am no expert on EW. so maybe i am wrong here. that's his chart. He's trying to forecast price using a mix of EW and quantitative analysis (on historical volatility) so, like i said, there are two predictions out there. one says big triangle that reaches well into 2017 and one says we start a nice rally from this point. just trying to clarify what's the consensus. |
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in europe everything fine with bitcoinwisdom
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nothing to do with policy. just reaction to turmoil and instability. if trump wins you will see a big drop on the financial markets and lots of uncertainty -> btc rises
if clinton wins we may very well see violent uprising in some states with nationalgard and everything -> btc rises
if we get a too close to call result we see weeks of chaos, accusations and eventually violence -> financial markets decline, btc rises
edit: last but not least the US has warned russia that if it interferes in any way in the US-election it will react with a painful counterreaction onto the russian infrastructure. if that happens -> btc rise
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Not really his EW based prediction though right?
to me it looks like EW, but i am no expert on EW. so maybe i am wrong here. |
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I think we are set to have a period of stability in the price for a while. Sideways throughout November I believe.
I think we will see a runup to 780$ in november. lets see. |
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The US election result will probably have about as much impact on btc price as the much awaited halvening a few months ago - nil.
Who said that the recent runup isn't caused by the halvening? The effect of the halvening is having a small but constant shortened supply that sums up over time. Obv we will never know but to rule it out just because at the day of the halvening iwe saw no spike is simply wrong. Cause if we could witness any effect it would play out in the MONTHS after the halvening. So exactly NOW. Just like 2012/13. |
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guys let's not reduce the quality of this thread speculating without qualitative/quantitative arguments.
you see the funny thing is that there are actually two predictions of Luc out there. One says a giant triangle until next summer and the other says big move started that will bring us beyong ATH. So no matter what, the believers in this thread will hail Luc whatever happens, if we bounce of 750$ and go 500$ he was spot on, if we pass 750$ and go 1000$ he will be seen as spot on too.  I cant remember seeing the latter one. Can you post a link please? |
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guys let's not reduce the quality of this thread speculating without qualitative/quantitative arguments.
you see the funny thing is that there are actually two predictions of Luc out there. One says a giant triangle until next summer and the other says big move started that will bring us beyong ATH. So no matter what, the believers in this thread will hail Luc whatever happens, if we bounce of 750$ and go 500$ he was spot on, if we pass 750$ and go 1000$ he will be seen as spot on too. |
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I'm going to laugh when nothing happens to the price after the election.
Possible. But unlikely. |
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To believe in hidden puppet masters that control all politicians is nothing else than some modern and hateful version of religion as there is zero evidence One word: Rothschilds One word: bullshit |
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The US elections should be pretty irrelevant to what BTC does: The policies are typically unaffected by the puppets elected, no matter what they've promised.
Please spare us your religious views. Religion has no say in bitcoin (even if you are masking it with humor  To believe in hidden puppet masters that control all politicians is nothing else than some modern and hateful version of religion as there is zero evidence and all those believers have to offer is that you just have to believe it so see it. But like i said this shit doesnt belong here. |
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The US elections should be pretty irrelevant to what BTC does: The policies are typically unaffected by the puppets elected, no matter what they've promised.
Please spare us your religious views. |
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