I cannot see the market capitulating to that extent ($130-$500) from $7000 barring a near catastrophic event of some type which acts as a catalyst- a event severe enough that causes holders to drop their bags en masse
Indeed. Expect just such an event.
Funny thing chart watching. The right "event" always seems to turn up at the right time to justify the technicals.
The reason for that is that people cherrypick retrospectively which "event" was a significant market driver. For example in 2013/14 if the price had carried on up through 1200 and continued throughought 2014 towards 4-5k, then the January 2014 China "banning" and the Gox fiasco would have been seen as minor corrections. But since the market traced back 90% of its gains eventually, those came to be seen as 'catastrophic'.
There are events like that going on all the time. We just had a contentious hardfork - you don't think that qualifies as 'catastrophic' ? The market will tank at some point and then a patsy will be found to justify it.
Lot of ifs
IMO the market is more liquid now than in the past- and I expect it to become more so... it is not as easy for the market to be pushed around at these levels..as it was 3-4 years ago, it has matured in many ways including somewhat the participants.
I do not discount a black swan event though - I guess it would not be too surprising- It appeals to the pessimist in me... but it would have to be really huge event- to justify a move which would take the market cap down from $116 billion (BTC@$7000) to around $3.3 billion (BTC @$200) which would be a drop of $112ish billion- that would have to be a dump of millions and millions of coins and a total lack of demand... and then after that a $443 billion rally up to to $447 billion (BTC@ $27,000)
The world, or at the very least the crypto world would have to be on fire.
Most external events of such a catastrophic nature would lead to BTC price increase - war, financial collapse, massive terror attack etc though financial collapse could potentially cause the crash and super recovery
Internal ones- catastrophic bug, vulnerability , regulation - I suppose a bug could cause crash and then the fix once in place the recovery (but $27k after a bug that drained price to $130 hmmmm)
Not saying we wont have volatility -but these numbers would be next level nutty IMO
(ps no I do not think the HF was catastrophic in the slightest- farcical but not catastrophic)