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981  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 07:02:32 PM
Here's what I've learned and what worked for me, YMMV.

<A proper gentleman's guide for appreciating whisky snipped>

JFC man. Epic post. Thank you so much for that. No one has ever explained to me, how to properly intake it, as you have.

Will make a point of committing your advice to memory, and giving the drink another fair chance.

Cheers, brother.
Hope it'll help and looking forward to hearing about some hopefully positive experiences in the future.

Edit: Oboi. Thanks for all the merit.
982  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 04:16:07 PM
@BTCMILLIONAIRE thats a whole lot of tasting before understanding whisky, going to try it but i guess for after the holidays.... THX for the post
If you drink regularly it will probably be quicker for you. I normally only partake in the herb, especially during the time I started my experiment. No drinks for years beyond 2-3 days per year when some friends had their birthdays or came on their rare visits, so it probably took me longer to adjust to the taste of alcohol than others.
983  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 02:55:23 PM
Tesla Owner: "My car is only 5 years old and the battery went bad! What do you mean that you no longer have a replacement OEM battery that fits my year model??? "

All Tesla batteries are are a mountain of Panasonic 18650s bunched together. They're slightly larger than an AA battery.

If your battery dies, order thousands of them from Ebay and the family Christmas can be spent with everyone stuffing them into the battery tray. Should be done by New Year.

The battery longevity stats are actually seriously impressive. There are 200,000 mile cars with about 85% capacity left.

It's the software side of things that's more of a concern, especially if your car is 'blacklisted' for a non official repair. I don't think people will take too kindly to the cloud esque form of 'ownership' compared to the traditional one when it comes to cars.
I think most consumers either won't care or won't even know. The fact that Facebook and other data scandals came as a surprise to anyone indicates that the average consumer is either too stupid to realize the implications or just simply doesn't care.
984  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 02:39:55 PM
Sold my M4 convertible to a friend of mine a few weeks ago.. It is an amazing car.. No way I would buy a Tesla Smiley

Teslas will have zero long term resale value.

Tesla Owner: "My car is only 5 years old and the battery went bad! What do you mean that you no longer have a replacement OEM battery that fits my year model??? "
What about stocking up on batteries? Not sure what they cost, but if that's the only issue then those things could last longer than traditional cars. Not sure about the economics of this though.

What about stocking up batteries to resell them afterwards?  Huh

If we already know batteries won't last that can be a good deal...
Gentlemen, we're about to become filthy rich.
985  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 02:32:44 PM
Sold my M4 convertible to a friend of mine a few weeks ago.. It is an amazing car.. No way I would buy a Tesla Smiley

Teslas will have zero long term resale value.

Tesla Owner: "My car is only 5 years old and the battery went bad! What do you mean that you no longer have a replacement OEM battery that fits my year model??? "
What about stocking up on batteries? Not sure what they cost, but if that's the only issue then those things could last longer than traditional cars. Not sure about the economics of this though.
986  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 01:26:29 PM
Bitmain's ruination is largely down their irrational masturbation surrounding Bcash. No business run by adults would've pulled any of that shit. It's another indication that we're still not out of amateur hour.
Real rookie move to back BCH. very predatory of Ver.
Must remember their chip maker also left.
The guy who designed the chips.
they blew was it 600mn on failed wafers after that, couldn't make a goddam sha asic no more.
They were left like a car without an engine(  Wink to you know who you are). Not a real car.
hence^ hashrate drop/price drop, all miners fucked.
Is it known why he left? Not perhaps because he got a better deal? Bullish?
can't remember why or if it could be known. he went on to some new company which yes is producing miners, but clearly not efuckingnough.
sorry no links but they're out there. can't be arsed with anything today. bullish?

They clearly have something big in the making and are just lowering the hashrate by not supplying enough good miners so that they can come in with a big boom and pop all the corn themselves. Mega bullish?
987  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 01:25:31 PM


Just been to collect a bit of precious myself. Now off home to eat lots of junk food & get high!
Hope to see $4,000 again by the end of the day Smiley




so the white...... has been deleted for a few days, and the green has arrived  to recover and cool down for a few days Smiley
i don't smoke myself for years.... very very sometimes on a birthday for lulz, but not often and especially cause my last birthday i was so sick of booze and just 5 hits of a joint .... man you cannot imagine how i was feeling @that time
but short said i'm no SMOKER myself but i don't disapprove guys for smoking cause i do understand the fun of it as well Wink

I really should live a clean life. Maybe when BTC moons.
Sorry for the OT guys!
If you're worried over smoking you can always switch to eating or drinking the stuff. No reason to swear it off for good if you enjoy it.
988  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 01:20:26 PM
Bitmain's ruination is largely down their irrational masturbation surrounding Bcash. No business run by adults would've pulled any of that shit. It's another indication that we're still not out of amateur hour.
Real rookie move to back BCH. very predatory of Ver.
Must remember their chip maker also left.
The guy who designed the chips.
they blew was it 600mn on failed wafers after that, couldn't make a goddam sha asic no more.
They were left like a car without an engine(  Wink to you know who you are). Not a real car.
hence^ hashrate drop/price drop, all miners fucked.
Is it known why he left? Not perhaps because he got a better deal? Bullish?
989  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 01:14:43 PM
Whisky I mostly enjoy for exploring what the fuck is going on with taste buds.

Anything in particular that you'd recommend? I'd like to up my whiskey tasting game a bit.
Depends what you're into.

I'm quite fond of Caol Ila 12/18 which is peaty, but not as much as Laphroaig, and with a buttery/oily mouth feel that I quite appreciate.

My favourite whisky (so far with my limited experience) would be a Glenmorangie Signet though, which is quite sweet and actually has easily discernible notes of toffee, chocolate and less obvious coffee that you don't normally find in whisky.

As far as non-scotch goes, Japanese whiskies that I enjoyed were any Hibiki, Yamazaki, and Nikka Coffey Grain. They're much tamer than scotch, but interesting drinks nonetheless.
Thanks for the recommendations!

Haven't really played with American whiskies yet, but Maker's Mark is quite nice and very cheap.
Russel's Reserve Single Barrel Rye is a good one. And then there's options like Woodford Reserve and Wild Turkey 101... American staples that are quite nice.

Not into the really peaty stuff for whiskey, I like something in between with a hint of sweetness. Although I'm not much of a drinker anymore, had to give up weekly drinking about 5 years ago. Now I just like to taste something good and pure now and then, especially around the holidays.
Caol Ila is pretty tame on the peat and has nice smoky fruit flavours to it. But by your recommendations it sounds like the Signet is a perfect match for you (as well as the Japanese whiskies). Your drinking seems mostly the way mine is beyond the time I powered through the tasting experiments.

Unfortunately no more sMerit to throw around, but thanks a lot for the suggestions! I've added Russel's and Woodford to my list, already had Wild Turkey and quite like it, so looking forward to the other two.
990  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 01:11:59 PM
you guys making me gonna experience whisky as well, i never really drunk it, so just how is the best to start with it .... ? like when out eating its something to finish with together with a coffee or .... never was a whisky fan but as a grow older maybe my taste has been changing Wink
If it makes you feel any better, I've given several tries over the years to try to get into whisky, but my palette is quite averse to the strong bitterness of the beverage. Do not enjoy it, and it somehow feels wrong cutting it with ice or water as some have advised me to do.

Can't do Tequila either, for what it's worth. Had one particularly bad club evening in the early 90's that I still haven't fully recovered from. Even a sniff of anything agave-based results in terrifying full-body nausea that totally shuts me down for at least 5-10 minutes.

Then there's that time I fell out of a limo in front of The Viper Room, and puked all over their sidewalk, after consuming obscene amounts of white wine at a pre-party. Needless to say, I was left in the limo with my head in a box while the group went to party inside.

Man... Memory lane of the 90's.

It was an overall good decade. Coincidentally, the same decade I decided I didn't ever want to deal with XX-chromosomal life-partners ever again.
Here's what I've learned and what worked for me, YMMV.

I could only taste alcohol, nothing else. Which is why I was so suspect over all the tasting notes and wanted to dig deeper.

What I did was buy a few bottles (at the end of which I would've concluded the experiment) and drink a dram or two every other day or so.
Before drinking I would smell it a few times and really pay attention to the sensation of smell, while drinking I forced attention into the taste even though I dreaded it as it was literally just harsh alcohol (or in the case of Islay whiskies just ashtray and alcohol).
Whether smelling or tasting, I tried to derive any sort of information that I could distill from the experience (which was nothing but alcohol and ash initially). A little over a week or so in, I'd eventually get a split-second glimpse of what should be going on, and that kept me going for longer.
Some 3-4 weeks in I started smelling and testing feeble notes, which gradually kept opening up as time went by.

It's also worth noting that once I stopped drinking for a while my palette and sense of smell would decline and I would have to start over (albeit at a slightly higher level than before). So if you had large gaps between your experiments Bob, you might want to consider this.


I recommend a Glencairn glass, they're cheap and funnel the fumes in a way that is supposedly ideal for whiskies. Don't use those cool looking glasses from movies, as they let all the aromas and flavours escape.

Cover the sides of the glass with your drink by gently swirling it, don't go too violent or it did something with the alcohol that made it stand out. Smash your nose in, smell it, focus real hard on it, put it away. Repeat a few times. Then drink.

between just drinking a sip and keeping it in for 10 seconds or longer. In the latter case move it around in your mouth to cover all your taste buds. Keeping it in your mouth for a good 10 seconds also shifts the alcohol burn from your throat to your mouth, which lets it go down very smoothly regardless of proof.

Focus on the sensation and try to figure out what is happening with laser focus. This was very hard for me for a while.

As far as ice is concerned, do not use it. Do not chill your whisky. Keep it room temperature. Chilling it dulls the flavours and brings the alcohol to the front (unless that's your jam).

Water. Experiment with this. But don't dilute it. Just put in a small drop or two of water. That will do some crap where differently soluble parts of the whisky move up/down in the glass, which also changes the aroma and flavour profiles leading to a different drinking experience.
Very fun and a good way to make the learning experience more exciting, especially as your palette begins opening up. Blind tasting, especially with help of your partner is also a great way to accelerate your learning experience.


Now, with all this said. If you don't like whisky by default this is quite a challenge. I enjoyed it, but had to really power through unpleasant drink after unpleasant drink before my brain and taste buds adapted and learned to pick out increasingly refined details.

If you still want to go ahead, do some reading on different whisky types and pick a few of each that sound interesting to you. There are many different scotches which vary by region. Islay very peaty and smokey. Speysides are much more tame and sweet but no less interesting. Then there's a lot in between. Bourbons from what I can tell are more on the sweet and tame side as well, as are most Japanese whiskies.

If you don't mind paying upwards of $100 for a bottle and want to avoid bitter I can highly recommend Glenmorangie's Signet. It's almost a dessert wine. Fucking love that shit. My go to whisky for celebrating with friends who aren't into peat or heavy drinks.

Also, don't drink to a point where you get shitfaced, at least not repeatedly. It helped me to treat this challenge with discipline. Again, YMMV.
991  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 12:29:02 PM
You guys are scaring the shit out of me with those $1K calls. If that happens, I will seriously consider breaking my own rules and take money from my (completely separated) other investments to buy much more. I hope not be put into that situation. I hate breaking my rules. They are for a reason.
Sounds like $30k by Spring 2018 calls to me.


Also, sounds like your rules just simply didn't consider a $1k event at all. Wink
992  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 12:02:20 PM
Not sure if this was already posted, please don't kill the messenger as i don't agree with lots of these points.
However, this shows where institutional investors (aka hedgies) are on this.

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1068573163670261760

In short: institutionals are shell-shocked and bewildered.
My take home message from this particular tweetstorm: small size institutional money will not participate from now on.

TL;DR she predicts that, similarly to how internet happened, blockchain will eat the world, but somehow traditional players (Fidelity, Paypal, etc) would be the winners and we would be the losers.
I disagree, obviously.
Obligatory "I'd give her my Wan" iykwim
993  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 12:01:08 PM
If we get to $100k I may or may not hire a bunch of nerds to make a game with no regard for profit margins. I miss wasting my life in an MMO. The theme park shit we have today sucks ass.

And anywhere before that I'm looking forward to funding some basic research as well as handing out some scholarships to pay back for my free overseas holidays.

I actually do understand that if peeps are either 1) just getting into bitcoin or 2) they just got into bitcoin in supra $10k prices (or have supra $10k average costs per BTC), then they may feel that they need $100k-ish to "get rich", but even with those two conditions that I mention above, there are a large variety of scenarios that fall quite short of $100k that could facilitate really decent living and profits from BTC without necessarily having to reach $100k to achieve various levels of success.

Surely what you are suggesting, BTCMILLIONAIRE, seems to be a level of profit that you would realize in which you could really have icing on the cake, and even if such icing on the cake does not happen, there would likely be a large variety of BTC price performance scenarios that allow you to live quite comfortably (even if BTC does not cause you to have those various extra (still potential) bonuses).

Actually, I recall when BTC was in the $200s and my average cost per BTC was in the $500s.. I think there are several of us who HODLed and Accumulated BTC during those days, I thought that it would surely be nice to get at least to the break even point... and then in that kind of situation, bitcoin is merely serving as a long term store of value,  yet I still continued to think that even if BTC prices do not get above $500 again, I am still o.k. because I have not invested more than I can afford to lose, and I am willing to ride the whole thing down to zero.

Of course, now, for me, there is a lot of cushion and a lot of equity and surely the value of my total holdings does go down if BTC were to go down to zero from here, so yeah, maybe I can act a little bit smug about the whole thing.. yet I still am not really considering the whole situation for me to be vastly different from someone who is currently investing into BTC but has an average cost above $10k.. Every BTC they buy at these prices, brings down their average cost per BTC tremendously, and maybe they don't have a whole hell of a lot of spare cashflow to be monkeying around with, but still that goes to the situation of NOT investing more than you can afford to lose and being able to both ride out the long long term (including being able to pay all bills, have entertainment money, have an emergency fund) and if BTC prices were to go to zero, that long term investors should be ready, willing and able to ride it all the way down because of the way that they got into the investment and that they are not using money that they actually need in the shorter time frames that could last many many years 5-10 years or more. 

I surely don't believe that the chances are very high that what is beginning to seem like a bear market (and perhaps even bottoming out, but unsure) will last more than 2 years from here.... We seem to have really decent odds, especially the 2 years and longer time frame, even though nothing is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia.  By the way, I am picking the 2 years timeline because that is a bit more than 6 months after the May 2020-ish halvening, and even if there are all kinds of pressures to manipulate BTC prices down for the next several years, there comes into effect a kind of hard reality regarding the limited supply that will cause additional difficulties in continued attempts at forcing the price down and the effects become greater and greater felt as the increases of the supply are half of what they are now...  Block reward down from 12.5 BTC per block to 6.25 BTC per block.
I can already live off of my crypto earnings comfortably. The type of profits I suggested would be in a range where I could dump some 20~50m into the development of a game without even flinching about potentially never making it back. Basically make something that I really want to see but never find due to CEOs cutting costs and keeping everything in a bland cookie-cutter manner. Not that I blame them, they are a business after all and need to appease their investors, but I do miss the wonder that old games made by nerds with a passion for the craft brought about and would like to see it brought back with cutting edge tools over tiny indie games. It's nothing of importance, but something that would be fun if I somehow managed to make all the right moves by gitting gud or lucking out.
Scholarships are a different story, since you can start handing those out even without being filthy rich, so I'm looking forward to that at some point (after I feel like I've spent enough time researching how to best go about it). And funding research I have no clue about. I suppose funds for a tenure and some assistants for a few years would be a good start. Also doable in the foreseeable future and more practical.



As far as people who bought in above $10k goes. Most of them will only have fractions of Bitcoin and not much spare cash to buy any more than a few more fractions of, or one or two Bitcoins at best. So it'll be pretty hard for them to retire without Bitcoin ballooning well above $100k. They're also most likely going to be the type that will lose most or all of their stash by trading, which doesn't make it much easier.
There are also very promising altcoins that increasingly reveal themselves as unicorns, albeit with the obvious associated risks involved. Those could help an average pleb increase their Bitcoin stash considerably, beyond what would be possible by cost averaging, buying dips, or trading the BTC/USD pair. But that game requires hundreds of hours of research and ideally some previous experience with analyzing the unknown and should never be done with sizeable amounts of one's Bitcoin portfolio, especially without extensive experience. The "y house gone" memes are even more fitting here than for just Bitcoin.

Of course, getting into the game and sticking around religiously will help them, even if Bitcoin goes to zero. Because they would eventually have spent a considerable amount of time paying attention to markets and learning about investing money and seeing it grow, rather than waiting for their fiat to drop to half its value every so many years. And investing is pretty much what separates the average net worth individuals from high net worth ones, so losing money to learn this lesson is surely worth it as long as people heed the mantra of not burning money they need for bills and whatnot.
994  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 11:43:28 AM
I'm starting to wonder if JJG is gonna PM me a BTC address for a beer, after all that...  Roll Eyes

Are you talking to me?  

You come off as such a publicity pussy who largely wants to engage in exaggeration drama?

and try to blame me for your phoney baloney.  

In other words, my name is blawb, and "I need some attention."


I do think that your point has some merit to it. But aren't you attention whoring yourself by constantly bringing attention to his attention whoring? Both of which I find understandable in the light of the current market situation.

But in either case, this is a forum, on the internet. So who fucking cares either way? I'm enjoying the drama, but don't see why it's still going. During the bull market we were all having good chats. Now everybody is flipping out.
I guess the two of you are like me, where given a chance you'll keep shitposting and/or arguing 24/7. I get it, it's fun. But is it for you? If not the two of you might want to clam down.



Someone should quantify the WO drama indicator. I still think it would signal a reversal due to peaking salt levels lmao



Love you both, no homo.
995  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 12:29:51 AM
Statistically speaking you probably still drink more than me. I prefer the herb. Whisky I mostly enjoy for exploring what the fuck is going on with taste buds.

Hmmm, @BTCMILLIONAIRE...

"Whisky" spelled without an E.
BTC fan.

Are you the originator of the term 'hodl'?  Does your GF go to gay bars? Do the words "pit pat piffy wing wong" mean anything to you?

Just curious.


Whisky is spelt whisky where whisky came from. The fucking Irish and Murricans changed it to Whiskey for marketing reasons. I wish I came up with hodl, but I did use the phrase 'clam down' well before that. What do I win?


P.S. Will respond to JJG later. Too drunk for so many words right now. Roll Eyes
996  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 12:25:27 AM

Ah, a topic close to my heart!  Costco has Lagavulin 16 on sale, or at least they did last week...  Bottle's still half full!  Hard to be pesimistic with a well aged, Islay single malt so close at hand.

If'n you've never tried an Islay single malt you may want to start with a Laphroaig 10yo with a splash of distilled water.
Laphroaig is a hit or miss. I love me some good peat, but it's definitely not for everyone. It took me a while to get into too, and I just sucked it up and kept trying a dram every few days for weeks before I could really taste and smell anything other than ashtray.

That's what got me really hooked on whisky though. I was curious to see if there was really something to all the flamboyant and over the top tasting notes that you see everywhere and bought 10 bottles of different scotches to figure out if the deal is real. It is. Who would've guessed that you have to actually buckle down to "learn" tasting.
997  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2018, 12:22:47 AM
Whisky I mostly enjoy for exploring what the fuck is going on with taste buds.

Anything in particular that you'd recommend? I'd like to up my whiskey tasting game a bit.
Depends what you're into.

I'm quite fond of Caol Ila 12/18 which is peaty, but not as much as Laphroaig, and with a buttery/oily mouth feel that I quite appreciate.

My favourite whisky (so far with my limited experience) would be a Glenmorangie Signet though, which is quite sweet and actually has easily discernible notes of toffee, chocolate and less obvious coffee that you don't normally find in whisky.

As far as non-scotch goes, Japanese whiskies that I enjoyed were any Hibiki, Yamazaki, and Nikka Coffey Grain. They're much tamer than scotch, but interesting drinks nonetheless.

Haven't really played with American whiskies yet, but Maker's Mark is quite nice and very cheap.


Any recommendations that you have?
998  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2018, 10:39:12 PM
Not only do I not drink alone, I actually pour out my drink if the last person left. I'll never be a Alchy luckily even though I love to get smashed when i do drink. Smiley
Statistically speaking you probably still drink more than me. I prefer the herb. Whisky I mostly enjoy for exploring what the fuck is going on with taste buds.
999  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2018, 10:25:24 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1069947580925255682
To a man with a bearish outlook, every yield curve inversion looks like an imminent recession. Anything could happen, of course, but yield curve is a long leading indicator, often takes time before recession begins. (avg lead time since 1956: 14 months using 10-yr & 1-yr).



I said that^
Fingers crossed crypto will have inversely correlated cycles.
1000  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2018, 10:19:15 PM
In my opinion, there are very major fuck-ups on the horizon.

The Interest rate hikes will blow up everything. The whole system will collapse. Banks won't be able to provide cash. People will lose all their savings in banks.

If they don't raise the rates, It will be hyperinflation then. The whole system will collapse anyway. This time asset prices will do full moon. GOLD= $10k. A loaf of potato = $50. People will die of starvation.

They can't pick their poison.

Banks will go poof!. People will panic. People will seek a mobile asset which they can spend easily which is also a store of value. That's not gold because it is not mobile.

We all know what it is.

BTC will be $100k, maybe even $250k but it will also bring a world war along with it. Then partying in Amsterdam won't look like a bright idea.   Grin
How about we go to $1m and buy one of Musk's rockets. Fill it up with all the good shit (like the entire internet on hard drives, everything needed to have a wide selection of gourmet grade food, and tons of booze/weed and a selection of mind-altering substances). Then relocate to Mars and call it planet Bitcorn.
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