I'll be happy to be wrong for a modest 20%-25% fee. Good to hear solid positive thinking from a disenchanted old fox. The short term is a bull mammoth, indeed. I'm not really expecting a train crash. More like a short sequence (2-3?) of shaking gestures, not sure if crescendo or diminuendo (not constant intensity).  I think big players have more profit when they can inject turbulence and volatilty, and here is a rather juicy fruit, hanging low enough for a sufficiently tall individual or beach pyramid team.

That the long term is bullish I have little doubt. Crypto apocalypse not scanned in my radar. It's only that she can play games at times, especially when she hangs out with the wrong guys. A silly girl - not in her teens yet, you know.


Let's get it on to the main event indeed.
I love your taste.

Your meme in particular is just it. (Y) Thank you, JJ. Glad you liked it.

Just what I suspect/smell/am talking about (after taking it out of my ass, admittedly).

The situation appears static, calm before the storm. No more bets for me ATM, I'm set up until things move from here.

If I were a whale or a large shark, I'd pick exactly a moment like this to try and tweak the price.

Maybe I'm growing too paranoid? I feel pleasantly detached.

The next 48-72 hours may be critical even if we don't realize it yet.

Is the volume unusually low even for a weekend, or is it just me?

See, jbreher? JJG is saying sorry in his slightly convoluted way, but to Jimbo and Rosewater, who don't seem to be too hurt or bothered anyway - not to you. You just keep on blurting out that nutjob bigblocker nonsense, so he just can't help not giving a ratt's ass. Nor can I. It's just that I try to keep it civil. We need another 4MB right now as we need a hole in our head, to quote a dead legend.

Now if you could just be nicer to each other, well that would be great.
(insert meme, I can't be bothered).

Like, say, two esteemed colleagues in ladder practices - it wasn't named the 2J-ladder by chance.

Then, soon we could have a nice Easter barbecue (with veggie options and all), and the world would be a better place.

Go figure.

As an exercise to build a model that works, or more mundanely as an exercise to maximize utility in different scenarios - preparing for both UP or DOWN in times of turbulence, as someone would say in many more words.

Hello Bones, I'm sorry it went like that. Maybe it's not a thing for you, but it can work in the right circumstances.

If hedge it must be, it's better to try harder, knowing we'll take a few blows. It's supposed to cost us more than a "wimpy" loss if it goes against us. It takes a cool mind to be able to swallow a 20%-25% loss - but such a loss only if she shows signs of mooning (>10k, say), not if she just gets back but still stays under the latest local max (8900 or so).

The hedge short should be sized (small) and placed (high) as to become an unbearable-cut-me-here liability only around 12k, ideally even higher, so it's advisable to build it from < 1 leverage, scalping (partially closing/longing/buying) on each dip and reshorting (selling) slightly more, higher.

In the process, I had to swallow some losses already to lighten my position. But now I feel safe enough. I'll dump it with a curse if it really becomes unbearable. Btc > 12k? I can live with that. Half-sour curse really. Get under 7.8k and I'll collect some. Not much. Just so I can add it back at a higher price, if (when?) it happens.

You might be a bit too emotional, or your play money might be too small to buy serious insurance. However, with some discipline I think the game can be can practiced (actually played!) as if the small play bankroll were a gazillion dollars. After all, the coin can be broken into very fine grained units.

He probably wasn't - a half-assed hedge played as a noncommittal bear is no way to go about it.

On the other hand, I confess I'm being serious, Bob - in a cold, but secretly hopeful, would-be unemotional way. Scenarios, worst cases, etc., all worked out in advance is the way to go. Know how much you can lose and in which exact circumstances.

I hope you can feel my neutral, clinical tone, Bones. This post isn't meant to point you out or offend you. On the contrary, you have lots of experience I don't have and likely never will (mining etc), so I look at you with respect and think you might see my point. Honestly, I haven't actually had a very expensive lesson yet, but I did have quite a few smaller ones. That's how I learned the little gameplay I know (very little!). You just got a lesson too, at a reasonable price. You weren't actually rekt if you could decide to call quits (as you did), so you survived after all. Come on, whine less and suffer your blows like a fightin' man  

Unexpected eh? FUD suppressed 100%, BCH hashrate menace vanished and all. I am also slightly surprised, but actually not that much. There were too many of us predicting a regular weekend dump and then on Monday blah blah - starting from me! It's not like "I knew, y'all clueless morons!"

Now let's be paranoid for a while - as a thought exercise. If I were a nasty whale - bear or bull is no fit category for such beasts - I'd try to fool the average noncontrarian smart traders who think they've got it all figured out - yes, that's me. And I don't feel I am alone. How would I go about that? Just the opposite of what's predicted by the smart herd of cows. Let her go up, up. No weekend dump, see, nice eh? Moon coming, hehe. A slightly better than average Monday... and then a brutal dive on Tuesday or Wednesday. That's when a short hedge can have your back and piss off the whale.

Just thinkin' aloud. Food for debate.

Well, Karartma1 put it even better!

Never say "never". And more than anything, don't say "never ever" unless you stake booze for all of us and, uhm, special treatment for the gents. You are welcome, no, even encouraged to hire professionals for the treatment. No amateurs.

(Sorry, your post really begged for this   )

Don't you mention pants anymore, mkay???  

I smell a bulltrap.
It ain't over until it's over.

Much the same here. 78ish for me.

Meaning the quality of your scouting is improving steadily...  not to disregard previous contributions!

Indeed. Recently Hairy and V8 are being formidable scouts. Assets. 

I think the craziness will start in 3h... 2h... steadfast to our hats, gents.

Invalid Proxy sauce?  
Sometimes this proxy thing gets on my tits.

EDIT - Now I see it! Yes Ivor, you nailed it. Shitty pic, BTW. 

I agree on both points.
FWIW, of course.

EDIT - by "a bit cheaper", I'm assfully prognosticating 7200-7400.

You might be able to get them a bit cheaper.

Source: Mammoths. Basically out of my ass, as Hairy would undoubtedly (and reasonably) say.

The last line of decency is broken.
The US have been a "hereditary semiconstitutional republic" for a few decades anyway.