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4361  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2017, 11:22:53 PM
Open a node over Tor for online shopping. w/e Cheesy
Are you trolling? BTC can already use Tor as the network layer if it works on your BTC node.
4362  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2017, 11:19:01 PM

I can be wrong, correct me if I do.
To use LN you must create payment channels. If I want to buy something on Amazon, I should open a payment channel with Amazon. But, if tomorrow I want to buy something on Ebay, I must also open a channel with them? And if later I want to buy a coffee at Starbucks, should I open another channel?

No such need, as long as you share a channel with a node (that has a channel shared with a node (that has...  ...)))) with Starbucks.  Same for Amazon. It's a mesh network. The general opinion is that there will be enough channels open to reach any relevant agent.

Ah you mean like Bitcoin? But then without the peer to peer? Sounds great.
It's still peer to peer (no central authority), but not one-to-one. There will be multiple routes. Irregular mesh topology over Tor.

You will open an account (payment channel) with a bank (lightning node hub) which routes your payments where they need to go. The lightning network will certainly evolve to be central hubs routing payments.  These banks (lightning node hubs) will settle on the blockchain when you close your account (payment channel) but otherwise won't really need the blockchain much.

Unless I'm mistaken

Right, not much need for on-chain stuff except opening/closing channels. Or possibly topping them up, I am still not clear on what will happen with "refill" operations as the protocol evolves. The hubs will be "central" only in the sense of "hyperconnected, with lots of money at stake in multiple channels". They won't be able to censor transactions or tamper with the protocol - or even figure out where the coins ultimately go. Hubs can be routed around if desired or necessary. Someone else will get the fees - if any. Not that shabby, is it?
4363  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2017, 10:17:32 PM

I can be wrong, correct me if I do.
To use LN you must create payment channels. If I want to buy something on Amazon, I should open a payment channel with Amazon. But, if tomorrow I want to buy something on Ebay, I must also open a channel with them? And if later I want to buy a coffee at Starbucks, should I open another channel?

No such need, as long as you share a channel with a node (that has a channel shared with a node (that has...  ...)))) with Starbucks.  Same for Amazon. It's a mesh network. The general opinion is that there will be enough channels open to reach any relevant agent.
4364  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2017, 10:01:25 PM
Imagine when millions of people are opening and closing LN channels or executing smart contracts.
It is not my intention to spread FUD, but we have an eventual problems between our hands.
I really hope bitcoin can scale offchain, as onchain.

How often does one open and close a credit card in their lifetime?
Actually the situation is more akin to a debit card. The max amount (channel money capacity) is low. And each topping of the card must be done with on-chain transactions. At least, this is what I found the only time I read LN's tech spec. It was a while ago, and things might have changed already.

I'm pretty sure that production updates to the LN protocol will solve all these issues: channel (money) capacity is a simple constant in the source code, being kept low on purpose in the experimental phase for security's sake. Refilling (topping) a depleted channel would be trickier, and I haven't yet figured out how it could be done.

If anyone has pointers, I'd be glad to read up.
4365  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 07, 2017, 12:21:04 AM

We are the few, the enlightened, the ones who See.
And that's not even an exaggeration.
meh
i make no claims
Last thing I remember these things were $300 a pop and I was making dick-tree jokes. I'm not even clever. Food for thought.
Well, genius and madness are almost the same thing. Only that one of them is useful.
I know nothing in terms of the amount of knowledge that is out there, but what i know compared to the general masses scares them.
http://trilema.com/2015/basic-bitcoin-competency-certification/
answers by morning pls, lads. i don't even get half the questions

Does he mean Rawls as in veil of ignorance Rawls? Funny guy.

Yes, that's what he means. I wonder what a "scientific" approach to ethics could be like.

Funny set of questions, some so vague as to be hard to answer, some flawed by the misuse of the word "orthogonal" to mean either "independent" or "contrasting", according to the phase of the moon. I think I can address about half of them with confidence, the other half with a "Uh? Whatever he wants to hear from me?"
4366  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 04, 2017, 03:24:06 PM
Why the fuck are RogerBucks up so much ? The hell is up with that shit ?

Cause speculation:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.0
https://theflippening.github.io/open-letter-to-bitcoin-miners-from-another-miner/

+ people shilling this speculation on social media

I just finished reading the open letter, and, I must admit, it scared the hell out of me. I have already sold all my Bitcoin Cash. I really wish things will not turn out the way the letter describes!

Wondering if we all should have kept our BCH... Shocked

Jimbo and jbreher may well turn out to be the smartest guys among us.
Patience is key, indeed. I'm still keeping some just in case...
4367  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2017, 02:16:48 PM
So, I bought i little today, and immediately bitcoin stalled. Sorry guys.
Don't worry, keep on buyin', we need moar cheap korn.
4368  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2017, 09:12:43 AM
I don't know how easy 400k will be, but 10k within the year looks doable.
10k within a year? Fork put aside, 10k will happen in Q1 2018 at the latest if they futures market goes live within 2017 which it should.

I meant within the year 2017.
4369  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2017, 08:36:41 AM
I don't know how easy 400k will be, but 10k within the year looks doable.
4370  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 28, 2017, 10:29:21 PM
However, cheap electricity, newest generation chips, and other factors that are now unbalancing the game won't be that relevant anymore, and there will be much fairer competition.

What -- exactly -- do you find _unfair_ about the current situation?
Difference in costs and in the cost/return ratio.

That's the point - not avoiding concentration, but letting concentration happen with similar ease almost everywhere. So Average David can spend 1000$, and his 1000$ are worth almost exactly as much as Goliath's 1000$.
David has some advantages that Goliath does not. For instance, applying the 'waste' heat to a real need. This is something that can be done at small scale, and cannot (or at least currently is not) done at scale.
Peanuts. Besides, newer hardware squashes old to the point that old rigs aren't economical. Obsolescence should be realigned, too.

Quote
Any American could put up a mining rig knowing that electricity costs are not the bottleneck anymore.
Nonsense. Electrical costs will always be a dominant factor in Bitcoin mining. Whether in flip flops in an ASIC or words in a memory column, each bit flip requires some number of Joules of energy.
Of course, but flipping "the same bits" as quickly as possible (computing power, not memory bound) is one thing. Flipping "a much larger number of different bits" as quickly as possible - but less quickly because RAM won't allow max speed (memory bound computation) is rather less energy-intensive. Physics.

I canna change the laws of physics, captain!
Right, I can't. Even if I could, I would be wary. I'm just an ordinary guy.
4371  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 28, 2017, 09:31:28 PM
Those with the resources and wherewithal will not need to _emulate_ terabytes of memory. They will simply _buy_ them. And expend the effort and deploy the ingenuity required to build up large datacenters of 'em.
Not as easy as buying miners or emulating phones. Not as economical. Not as scalable. Of course, if they have resources and want to use them, they're free to.

However, cheap electricity, newest generation chips, and other factors that are now unbalancing the game won't be that relevant anymore, and there will be much fairer competition. That's the point - not avoiding concentration, but letting concentration happen with similar ease almost everywhere. So Average David can spend 1000$, and his 1000$ are worth almost exactly as much as Goliath's 1000$.

Today, specialized and generic hardware have performances orders of magnitude away. With this equalizing move, the difference would drop to well under a SINGLE factor of 10 - probably a lot less. Any American could put up a mining rig knowing that electricity costs are not the bottleneck anymore. That would be a significant change.
4372  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 28, 2017, 12:49:23 PM
Quote
*Unless a change in POW helps to equalize mining power by making costs harder to scale.
...Your apparent belief that a change in PoW will make any difference in centralization is unpersuasive. No matter the technology, mining power will coalesce to those that possess the financial resources, the BizOps acumen, and most importantly the persistence and pain tolerance needed for entrepreneurship on a grand scale.

I don't believe this is true. If somehow PoW can be tied to a smartphone for "one phone one vote", those who have financial resources can screw themselves against the brute force of several billion smartphone users.

Just No. Those that have the resources will run hundreds of android emulator VMs on each of hundreds of servers, and we'll be right back with the same centralization problem we have today.
We won't, if we switch to to a RAM and RAM-access intensive PoW algo. Let them try to emulate terabytes of RAM in a time efficient way. No eh? Just as I thought.
4373  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2017, 03:38:55 PM
Bullshit. It is exactly what happened. Signaling support for segwit was anemic. It was not until the NYA agreement and signaling of S2X that segwit amassed any provable support. That is what occurred, and it is clearly within the record.
NYA signaling helped to stir things up, yes, but only because it became apparent that the miners couldn't stop it and had to swallow - oops, embrace it. Segwit is good, long-term good, but myopic miners can't see beyond their weekly revenue and were herded by selfish Chinese businessmen. Yes, I know,  our narratives on this matter differ. This is just incidental, and not my main point.


we, the users giving up mining - was more or less unavoidable, given the financial and existential investment in becoming a pro miner.
I don't think that is true. Who here still mines? Show of hands? I know there are some here that mine on a limited scale.

But more to the point, there was nothing preventing each of us from jumping in and mining. Sure, it seems an insurmountable expense today (but is it really? what about the small scale miners in existence?) but at the dawn of the pro miner era, there were no pro miners. Or IOW, when the mining gets tough, the tough get pro. Yes, we abdicated.
How can you be competitive at mining today? Come on, be honest in your assessments as you are flawless with your math. There maybe a few of us still doing it because of previous commitment or individual mentality, but mining simply isn't for the masses anymore*. Which was instead the point of Nakamoto's original vision. He was right on the math, but predicting the future is for wizards, not for scientists.

*Unless a change in POW helps to equalize mining power by making costs harder to scale. One RAM bank, one vote. RAM speed can't grow as CPU speed did. There are several cryptohash algorithms where you can impose a bottleneck on memory size and/or sequential memory operations. I bet this is the way POW is headed to, if any change is going to happen.

I want to understand the ultimate reason why you support your claim. What do you expect the normal user could gain from something like S2X?

As I have been saying for literally years, the stupid centrally-planned production quota that limits capacity is stifling adoption. I expect S2X (in comparison to S1X) to allow double the number of transactions per second, per hour, per day. Therefore reenabling use cases that have been obsoleted by Cores insane Raspberry Pi fetish. More use cases = more usability. Pretty simple calculus really. Oh - and lower fees besides.
What you call the "insane Raspberry Pi fetish" is the David-against-Goliath guarantee that verifying and keeping the big guys in check has a cost small enough for anyone to be able to afford it! No mining rig required. That's exactly the point of decentralization.

You want greater adoption? You're not alone, jbreher. We all do, of course! But if adoption comes at the price of pushing Joe "David" Average out of the loop, it's just Visa-like adoption, not financial freedom-adoption. Can't you see that? That's what I meant when I half-jokingly invoked Jeff Bezos' role as a Deus ex machina savior - "Here's adoption for you my children (in a celestial Amazonesque voice)... now go in peace and stop the silliness about big blocks... (epic THX thunder)."

Quote
It ain't Bitcoin Cash, but it's double the goodness of S1X.
If big blocks are what you really think you need, you've got BCH already. What's the point of S2X then?

Quote
Besides, we've shown that bigger blocks are not a problem. Why the obstinance on the part of Core? I think they're merely afraid of losing face.
Shown where? Bigger blocks are indeed a problem if usage ramps up. Latency, bandwidth and mass memory requirement would skyrocket for simple Joe "David" Average verification, not only for mining. Censorship resistance would be seriously impacted.

I refuse to believe you don't see that - you're too smart not to. That's why I was asking for your true motives.

I guess you just don't want to tell us.
4374  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2017, 03:08:48 PM
And if you want to own a house or land, it would be smarter to only liquidate enough bitcoin for a sizable down payment, and then get a really good low fixed rate 30yr loan for the rest. Bitcoin's yearly returns would handily beat, actually crush any 3-4% yearly interest on the loan. Plus both the house/land AND your left over bitcoin would both be increasing in value relative to fiat while you were still making loan payments.
Spot on.
4375  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2017, 02:43:22 AM
The fact people aren't migrating away from Coinbase en masse tells me something about people--they're mostly a bunch of apathetic wankers.
That's why I say a word from Amazon (or a "pay with BTC" button, even better) can close the matter. The inertia of single users is nothing compared to that of organizations. Just imagine what happens with all the merchants when they must switch to a different token, with a different value, that they can convert into fiat or into the other token only at certain exchanges.

Of course, Amazon's strength is its mass adoption, which would quickly transfer to the chosen method of payment. Other economic actors, while not that powerful, could sum up to a similar effect over a longer time.
4376  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2017, 02:34:57 AM
The point remains that any 'changing of the guard' would be an abdication*. And hence, would not be merely an effort to overthrow the current devs with ones more malleable.
You mean: Core would abdicate by refusing to code for a project (S2X) that they don't subscribe to.

*Much as we all abdicated our consensus-determining (i.e., mining) power years ago.
You mean: we abdicated by exiting the arms race for mining.

Actually, these are different actions - the first already historical (by user "inaction"), and the second hypothetical, only possible if S2X "wins" and "takes over". The difference is that the first abdication - we, the users giving up mining - was more or less unavoidable, given the financial and existential investment in becoming a pro miner. On the other hand, Core's abdication would be a political-economic switch to one of two sides - voluntary and totally avoidable, therefore closer to the meaning of the verb "abdicate." Not exactly spot on, though: while "abdicating" S2X, the developers would probably continue to code BTC, likely adding some kind of software retaliation to burn bridges.

Your rhetoric use of the same verb for the two actions is sophisticated all right, but it feels like by way of this sophisticated rhetoric you're trying to deflect my attention. Come on, please!

The reason I like arguing with your "trolling" (not my definition ehehe, I'm only quoting someone else O:-) is that I want to understand the ultimate reason why you support your claim. What do you expect the normal user could gain from something like S2X? Or maybe you're not a normal user? If so, who are you in terms of financial-social goals?

4377  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 25, 2017, 09:14:52 PM
https://coin.dance/blocks  

segwit2x signaling rate is down to 75% in the last 24 hours. miners changing their minds?
A word from Jeff Bezos could nail S2X inside its coffin.
4378  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 25, 2017, 09:11:36 PM
the supposed fork is actually an attack.

It may be worth observing the fact that whether this is an attack or rather a simple upgrade is dependent upon your individual perspective.
Right. We differ on that, it's understood.

Quote
Quote
The real goal is replacing Core with more - say - malleable developer(s).

Notion is absurd.

IF S2X becomes the hashrate victor
the consensus victor...

Quote
AND
IF the core developers switch to developing an S2X compatible client
... which they said they won't (of course it remains to be seen if they keep their word)

Quote
THEN
It is highly likely that their implementation will acquire majority status
AND
They would not, in fact, be replaced.
Under all these assumptions
(whose plausibility could be debated, but we know better than to engage in that right now, or at least I do)
that's right, they wouldn't be.
4379  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 25, 2017, 07:52:25 PM
Take a look at current Japanese culture for example.  Basically in a nutshell, the land is maxed out, they have entered a deflationary spiral of sorts, the Socialism experiment has failed,
(But has it ever begun?)

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the central Bank of Japan owns something like 65% of all corporate debt, and the people work at corporations that exist basically just to pay off the interest on their corporate debt --- so basically "zombie" banks and corporations.  So the young people, overburdened with an old world social structure that's no longer working, and overburdened with personal/corporate debt, lack of advancement opportunities, etc. are no longer dating, marrying, reproducing and having families.  The majority of guys aren't even interested in the girls, just interested in themselves (preening, socializing, hanging with their guy friends, etc.). Sounds pretty depressing, huh?
There used to be a social pact of sorts until the 70's-early 80's whereby a big corporation, after sucking the parent's blood for a lifetime, would employ the child on the elder's retirement. This pact has been broken with the crisis of the 80's, and never resumed thereafter. So the frail socio-economic cohesion of Japan is going to the dogs. Socio-cultural cohesion is still quite strong, though. Maybe it's an island thing.

Quote
This made me think of something I had read a while back about a mice experiment conducted in the 1960's by John B. Calhoun.
I didn't know about that. I read up a bit. Very interesting.

Quote
Half way down the Wikipedia page you can read about it, especially about the male mice that came to be known as "the beautiful ones".  The similarities between his experiment conclusion and what is happening now in Japan is uncanny.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Calhoun
Yes! The grass eating kids, or "vegetarian men" as it gets translated into English. And as Ibian points out further down, this at least is not an "island thing."

4380  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 25, 2017, 05:51:34 PM
pardon my ignorance (I've been out of the loop for a few years) but what are these bitcoins you are talking about?

Digital stuff for nerds. Basically useless. Don't worry, exit the loop immediately.

let me rephrase that. I read a bit about the hard fork a while back, I just don't know what happened with that.
Sorry gwoplock, I thought you were fishing for sarcasm.

The attack is officially meant to double the blocksize (hence the 2x part of the name) while keeping SegWit, unlike the altcoin BCH, aka BitcoinCash (hence the ticker S2X). On paper, the motivation and the supporters are the same as the NY cartel. However, no proper replay protection has been implemented by the attackers. This is intentional, so the supposed fork is actually an attack. There has been open talk about "attacking" and "strategies" on some well-known Reddit subs. The real goal is replacing Core with more - say - malleable developer(s). Some kind of replay protection can be attempted post-fork at the user's risk. The token for the replay-protected resulting altcoin S2X is available for trade on a few selected exchanges, and is valued at a small fraction of the BTC price.
 
In the meantime, several original signers from the infamous NY coven have retracted their support. A couple of major exchanges are trying to keep a foot in two shoes.
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