Thank you son, that was really sweet. Sorry can't send you nodes atm, still hodling them in the oven. In the meantime, I'm sending you a couple crunchy merits to chew on. P.S. You look gorgeous in the pic. So like your father! |
|
|
|
*sigh* no. IQ tests are simply pattern recognition. There is nothing cultural about it.
Pattern recognition has nothing cultural about it? I disagree. Try a "spot the pattern" competition in the Amazon forest against a local. Yes, you can use your calculator if needed (hint: it won't be). |
|
|
|
(snips sprinkled)
1) chained order is a little bit of an additional concept (...)
2) example of incremental / step setting in the $8k price territory using a ball park of $500 buy/sell increments. (...)
(And so on. A beautiful, detailed explanation in language dry enough to taste delicious given its origin.)
So you can write in an orderly manner when you give up your urban stream of consciousness style. Next piña is on me. You remove the "other side" order at the point you just filled, otherwise they will cancel out for sure.
I don't think that "remove" is the correct word choice. I find that when I am playing this whole system and it is going smoothly, then I am never really removing anything, but I am just adding. Once a buy order executes, then I add a sell order, and once a sell order executes, then I add a buy order. On that same point, I tend to let the price come to me, and rarely do I tweak to reset the order and to expedite the process. Sometimes, I will change a whole bunch of orders at once which is a kind of removal and replace, but that is not part of the regular practice when the practice is "flowing" then I am only adding orders, not removing orders. (...) I am not sure if your example helps.... O.k. we are going with a $500 increment, but if my order to sell at $8,500 executes, then I am not removing anything because I just add a buy order at $8k (because my previous sell had executed at $8k, and I could not do anything until either the next $8.5k sell order executed or the next $7.5 buy order executed. If the price had gone down rather than up, then my $7.5k order would have filled and I would have set a sell order at $8k rather than the buy order that I ended up setting because of the $8.5k sell order that ended up executing first. Probably, we are saying the same thing, just phrasing it differently. Yes, I think I got your system right, but I pictured it as a double (buy/sell) ladder of orders already set up in advance. You watch them fill and remove debris/fix things. Like your buy at $8k is already there (it became relevant after selling at $8.5k). 3) The whole system is not a wash because you are able to either buy more BTC with the same amount of money or accumulate more money by the size of your orders. If you keep the exact BTC amounts, then you accumulate dollars; if you keep the same dollar amounts then you accumulate BTC (or you can do some combination of the two). Recently, I have been working on accumulating more
BTC with my orders.
On the other hand, I kind of considered this in the background but honestly wasn't sure - I didn't run the numbers to check, so I kept my mouth shut with jojo69, who used the word "mostly" just a couple of positions out of place. OK, so for the most part, they still cancel out, you are just harvesting (mostly, ed.) at reversals.
If it runs straight up 4 sells, then straight down 4 buys you (mostly) only have one "win"
Well yes - mostly. The effect of trades in middle points starts small and builds up, as JayJuanGee explained  |
|
|
|
You can stab people with it, stick up your jacksy, or even one's urethra, plug holes in aircraft fuselages to prevent depressurisation and use it to deliver children if there's no hot water and towels to hand.
Can a Lambo do any of that?
No. But I did pick up two of these. https://www.vipertecknives.com/products/guard-father-spike-automatic-otf-icepickJam them into my urethra every morning as part of my morning workout, right after I finish my sets of slamming my testicles between two bricks. You have strange customs in your country. Only the biggest stars have customs so extravagant. Now Bob doesn't like to boast too much, so he didn't mention that the bricks are actually gold-plated tungsten, food grade. With repeated use, they eventually get soft-sculpted by thousands of impressions of impressively hard kidney beans. |
|
|
|
I must say:
It's been very reassuring to see certain views being challenged in this thread which have been left to pass by without comment before.
I was beginning to wonder, now I find I am not alone. Respect to those who spoke up, it was about time.
'nuff said.
On with WO nonsense in all its flavours.
Thanks, but sometimes it's better to ignore and hope it dies a natural death. Yes, it's soothing to be able to glide over it sometimes. You can't engage permanently. Ya gotta pick your battles.
Or let them pick you, as it happens  |
|
|
|
You can tweak the amounts, and/or you can tweak the gaps (leaving two rather than one, for example).
You can realign the whole ladder by a few dollar points (under the $500 step size, in the example I made).
But right, if you don't do that, that's the way I understand it too - you harvest your latest top when you reach a bottom, and vice versa.
Thanks for helping me brainwrap that. It seems to be more of a risk management strategy than anything. Most of the transactions are cancelling out with zero risk while ensuring that you are right there on a reversal. Your only real risk is that it runs off in a huge move that exhausts your supply of one side of the pair. I think I remember JayJuanGee talking about being busy shuffling orders around during the latest storm - respacing them with wider steps if I remember it right. Jbreher hinted he does the shuffling manually too (likely with a smaller step size, which of course implies more work). You basically have to babysit this toy, either automatically or manually. edit/ I just deleted a recently added sell order that would have prevented me from "getting in" if it goes up from here...
So it seems to be working for you isn't it? |
|
|
|
Listen here. The thing about racists: Everyone is a racist.
Sometimes we need to put others down to make us feel good about ourselves. It is just desperate human nature of someone who does not like themself. From a psychological standpoint anyway.
We're not talking guys who hate their second cousins. It's specifically called racism if "the others" are people with a phenotype markedly different from yours. Or a different upbringing. |
|
|
|
I am also almost exclusively following the Wall Observer thread. It is my first source for Bitcoin related news and sentiment. Besides, there are bits of interesting technical discussion at times, and of course a good 60% of totally irrelevant noise. I often wish I had more sMerit to give out.
I think it’s almost impossible to hang out in Adam’s thread without learning a lot about bitcoin. While the discussions are usually obnoxious and strange, bordering on perverse, they are also filled with information about every aspect of the bitcoin economy. That’s because those people are attempting to suss out the next micro move of the usd/btc exchange rate. That kind of in-depth discussion creates an immense background noise of knowledge (and perversion). You are definitely participating and have a good foundation in crypto knowledge. You definitely aren’t a bounty hunter only here to make money and you are not even a signature spammer. 20 merit awarded. ... and 10 sMerit to give out in the next days. Thanks a lot, QuestionAuthority! I will use them as wisely as I can. |
|
|
|
To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.
Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did. Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K? I didn't. That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour. That depends on how much time and effort you are willing to expend, or alternatively money if you'd prefer hiring people. The most accurate solution will be a well-balanced combination of multiple approaches, and the balancing act is something that can always be improved upon with new data. It's also very much possible to create fresh data from what you already know, which is to some extent what technical analysis does. If you're not looking into algorithmic trading then your best bet is a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. If you're looking into algorithmic trading, you'll find no upper ceiling no matter how many resources you throw at the problem. If you're manually trading you may want to consider trading on different time scales simultaneously (minutes/hours/days/weeks/months), both for better hedging and for accelerated self-improvement. There are also altcoins that are "negatively" correlated to BTC/USD (e.g. they do the opposite of what BTC/USD does), which can be used fairly easily to increase your stashes during periods of extreme volatility on any time scale. I'm no real trader, but I do have a small part of my holdings loose in the wild - mostly learning and making the occasional small profit. Got a few lessons already, at reasonable prices. Thanks for the advice about multiple scales. The algorithmic thingy really tickles me, especially if it can be steered/tweaked while it runs. Can you suggest any good reference? |
|
|
|
...chained orders...
I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair. Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it. It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me. Did I miss something in the explanation? You remove the "other side" order at the point you just filled, otherwise they will cancel out for sure. Example: you have orders each 500$. Sell at 8500 on the way up, but remove "buy at 8500 on the way down". Next you'll buy will be at $8000. Same for the opposite direction, buy at $8000 on the way down, remove "sell at $8000 on the way up". OK, so for the most part, they still cancel out, you are just harvesting at reversals. If it runs straight up 4 sells, then straight down 4 buys you only have one "win" You can tweak the amounts, and/or you can tweak the gaps (leaving two rather than one, for example). You can realign the whole ladder by a few dollar points (under the $500 step size, in the example I made). But right, if you don't do that, that's the way I understand it too - you harvest your latest top when you reach a bottom, and vice versa. |
|
|
|
...chained orders...
I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair. Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it. It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me. Did I miss something in the explanation? You remove the "other side" order at the point you just filled, otherwise they will cancel out for sure. Example: you have orders each 500$. Sell at 8500 on the way up, but remove "buy at 8500 on the way down". Next you'll buy will be at $8000. Same for the opposite direction, buy at $8000 on the way down, remove "sell at $8000 on the way up". |
|
|
|
Found the exact reference I mention in my previous post. Here it is.
(snip....)
The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?
This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question. But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to. Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat. But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy. Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in. For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically. Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge. And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it. I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!). I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out. I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to). I will say this: With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies: 1. Gut feeling (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference') 2. Listening to Tera. Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning. I think what d_eddie was quite reasonably asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not. I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out. To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom. I doubt anyone actually did. Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest. |
|
|
|
To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.
Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did. Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K? I didn't. That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour. |
|
|
|
Who the fuck partially fills a limit order for 0.1 BTC and then goes away again?
This has happened to me quite frequently. You just happen to have your order at the reversing point. I think that it is good sign. Sometimes the remaining portion fo the order does end up getting filled, but frequently when an order gets partially filled, I get a kind of feeling of how much of a "genius" I am in terms of my order placement... sometimes, I cancel the remaining and sometimes I will just leave it and see if it later gets filled. If I leave it, then frequently, I will set a partial contrary order, just to cover myself on both and it becomes more fun, because I feel that I get an additional opportunity to make some extra money by setting another partial order on the other end and then just wait to see which one fills first. That part is like a game, and fun and generally profitable, no matter what. It happened to me too, and when it happens I feel like a genius too! I never set a partial contrary order though. Gotta try that, it must be fun playing wait and see which one fills first. Nice bit, JJG! |
|
|
|
From now on there are only resistances ahead. The first one starts about here. Personally I'm positive that the bottom is in. If I'm right confidence should rise together with the price, and that may produce an upward avalanche.  For now the biggest resistance will be 7k € as, if you look à the chart (cant link it I'm on my smartphone), it was the price just before the bullrun. I predict a few day of stagnation at this point and then extra bullishness if we go through it. We're oscillating right around 7k€ indeed. If it breaks upward, there might be a nice weekend pump like the ones we had when Carolina was singing. |
|
|
|
|
I am also almost exclusively following the Wall Observer thread. It is my first source for Bitcoin related news and sentiment. Besides, there are bits of interesting technical discussion at times, and of course a good 60% of totally irrelevant noise. I often wish I had more sMerit to give out.
|
|
|
|
Useful info, vroom! There goes my last sMerit. I do hand out merit fairly quickly when I have some, but I prefer giving them out to nonlegends when possible :-) |
|
|
|
Hardly relevant to BTC, but an interesting topic IMO. (snip)
How hard were they trying though? I recall reading a paper from one of the Ivy League universities that concluded that perfect pitch could not be learned in adulthood. And the argumentation, as well as the experiment itself, was lackluster to say the least.
Really hard. As in everything that can possibly be done within legal and ethical means. This is study time on google if that's not enough. Perfect pitch appears to be dependent on both a genetic trait and a development window. Nature and nurture. The genetic trait is probably present in something like 20% of the population. The window of opportunity for actually having perfect pitch during adulthood roughly coincides with the window for native language learning. Native speakers of tone languages (Chinese language/dialects, Thai etc) have a higher than average percentage of adults with perfect pitch. This is probably due to children being exposed to more-or-less fixed pitch sillables while that part of the brain is developing. There are several studies that come to similar conclusions. I've read a few (say, at least a couple). I can't be bothered to look them up, but big G can help. |
|
|
|
I think a lot of these people bitching about scaling have never run a full node.
Surely, you mean a "full-validating, non-mining node wallet"? Asks our wordsmith colleague jbreher. ^^^ FTFY. Just keepin' it real. XD Hmphh, inflexible over language, eh? I don't even keep a wallet on my node, but whatever. I ain't 'playing victim'. There is a wide gulf from permissionless innovation that you don't happen to care for, and outright lying in order to besmirch character.
I understood the first sentence, but I couldn't make sense of the second. Care to explain? |
|
|
|
Interesting as predictions about the next phase are, it's an art for few. Masterluc himself is far sighted in his reach forward. I'd like to turn back with the not-so-few: what happened? This might help my future understanding of things. When is it the first time that one of us could have said "it's coming" - and how could they hope to convince at least a qualified majority? 8-monthly bubbles which burst in the "propellor correction" fashion I described. The pattern's always the same:  It's the 1-Week MACD histogram for Bitcoin/USD. The thing is, I've NEVER seen it go so deep on the very first bar before.  For me it lends credence to the idea that the market is being actively co-erced down to a pre-defined level by the same holders who hoovered up the coin on the way up. They may be playing both markets in concert (futures and cash). Toknormal's points scored with me. Are the two quoted views mutually exclusive, or can they add up into a coherent narrative? 8-month cycles, give or take 6 months. The give or take bit itches, of course. Why these irregular durations? Is the school (of whales) free to choose a random moment, or are they looking for a "go ahead" hint from external reality? Which kind of hint/help would they welcome? The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming? |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
