setting up buy orders in the low 3Ks
Low 3Ks? Isn't that a tad too optimistic? |
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They just love to trot out the Mike Tyson argument. Snobby fucks.
I don't know about that. What's the Mike Tyson argument? Back when Mike Tyson was getting into Bitcoin, that signalled it was time to sell. Because let's face it, he ain't no Alfred Einstein. Same same. If strippers are getting in, must be time to sell. Because let's face it... Whatever. This is why I purposefully avoid all MSM on the subject. Sour grapes and elitist muttering. I'm too old for it. Ahh, I see, thanks. It's like Wall Street people saying it is a confirmed bubble when taxi drivers give out stock market advice. |
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(SNIP) (SNIP) You want to know what is scary? Two weeks ago my sister’s former boyfriend, a private soldier that left school at sixteen, started gushing enthusiastically about bitcoin and about how he had made fifty euro on his investment over the past three weeks. I started to feel sick in the pit of my stomach The latter block isn't the "widely regarded economist" (and Morgan Stanley minion) Stephen Roach, or at least I couldn't find the excerpt in the linked page. Where is that from? They just love to trot out the Mike Tyson argument. Snobby fucks.
I don't know about that. What's the Mike Tyson argument? |
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<FUD deleted>
This should be spread among all hodlers. Not to spread FUD, but to inform everybody about it. The sharks are pumping the price right now. Just hodl it. Indeed. It wasn't my intention to spread FUD. Rather to make people aware of the manipulation they're about to be exposed to. The only way to combat it is to decouple the behaviour of the cash and futures markets as much as possible. The only way to do that if for people to *want* to hold bitcoin the asset as opposed to bitcoin the derivative or USD cash. That means they'll need to resist the tendency to value BTC in terms of fiat currencies and instead value it for its utility, store of value and future-proofing qualities. i.e. hold through-ought dips and crashes. My head hurts after reading this. a) If you honestly believe this FUD crap you should put your money where your mouth is and short bitcoin & buy the dip. b) Otherwise, shut up and stop spreading stupid FUD. If you spread FUD, I assume it's A. It doesn't necessarily look like FUD to me. It could be construed as neutral speculation on what's going to happen next. Actually, that's how I'm receiving it. The summary of the quoted posts could be briefly phrased as "hodl for dear life." I'm trying to understand if there's a better strategy that exploits the opponent's strength at one's advantage, like financial Aikido for hodlers. So I was stirring discussion, hoping to elicit informed, intelligent replies from savvy forum dwellers. Incidentally, I think that the scenario depicted by the "FUD" (which, I repeat, doesn't look like FUD to me) is a medium term one. At first, naked shorting without a substantial hard underlying hedge (real btc in hand) can be too risky even for sharks. |
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This should be spread among all hodlers. Not to spread FUD, but to inform everybody about it. The sharks are pumping the price right now. Just hodl it. Indeed. It wasn't my intention to spread FUD. Rather to make people aware of the manipulation they're about to be exposed to. The only way to combat it is to decouple the behaviour of the cash and futures markets as much as possible. The only way to do that if for people to *want* to hold bitcoin the asset as opposed to bitcoin the derivative or USD cash. That means they'll need to resist the tendency to value BTC in terms of fiat currencies and instead value it for its utility, store of value and future-proofing qualities. i.e. hold through-ought dips and crashes. Of course. Extreme case: with everyone keeping their bitcoins and never selling, the Wall Street sharks can't buy "real" bitcoin, so their profits can only come on the derivatives side. For example, when they short massively, they can gain on cash-settled futures if the price goes down - provided there's a sucker who's longing those futures. If no hodler engages in derivatives trading, the sucker would be some trader - possibly another Wall street shark on the other side. The logical question then is: what can a minnow do apart from hodling? Is there a way to benefit from swings in the derivatives market without touching one's btc stash? |
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How does paper wallet work? Just hearing of it for the first time.
It depends on your inclinations. Here are two popular alternatives. |
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You can sell naked calls without the underlying asset with enough collateral / capital.
Naked calls on bitcoin? Define “enough collateral”. 20% of the nominal value? The way I understand the rules, there's a daily +/- 20% hard limit before trading stops, and the positions are regulated daily. As I understand it, the 20% limit only applies to the daily market. Not sure what happens in the overnight market. I thought CME was only planning daytime trading for the time being. I might be wrong, though. Honestly, I haven't read the documentation with great care. |
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You can sell naked calls without the underlying asset with enough collateral / capital.
Naked calls on bitcoin? Define “enough collateral”. 20% of the nominal value? The way I understand the rules, there's a daily +/- 20% hard limit before trading stops, and the positions are regulated daily. |
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Anyone thought through the game-theory of buying and HODLing the CME Futures the day they are issued ? I'm thinking it's only going to go up - long - as soon as it's issued.
Was thinking of re-allocating $250k in a retirement portfolio...
Here's an interesting post from infofront that provides some food for thought. I got this from another thread. It was originally posted by someone on /r/bitcoin: I thought I’d share some of my stock market knowledge to help my fellow HODLers get a perspective on the CME futures that will be launching soon.
First let me explain a bit of history: in 1982 CME group launched futures on the S&P500.
What happened next? The stock market went on a spectacular run for 5 years until it eventually crashed in 1987.
Why does this matter for Bitcoin? Because I believe a similar story is about to unfold. This story is the fundamental story about adding leverage to a new underlying asset.
Bitcoin is a relatively “unleveraged” asset as compared to other financial assets. It’s new, it’s untainted. This is significant because of the mechanics of market prices and the future potential of market prices.
When something enters a levering stage, like Bitcoin is about to, the mechanics of the market are HEAVILY weighted to the buy side and not the sell side. Why? Because to be a seller you MUST be a previous buyer (or if you’re shorting, the supply comes from a previous buyer). This may sound weird, but the potential capacity to sell is a function of those who previously bought. This is why in an early market like Bitcoin it’s very hard for it to consistently fall as there’s not a lot of buyers yet built into the price. It takes years and years of accumulation and volatility to create a normalized market. When it’s new, especially pre leverage, it’s very easy to bid it up.
When the CME futures are added, it will likely lead to spectacular rallies, but you need to arm yourself with the knowledge that the eventual buying will plant the seeds of the future capacity to panic.
This is what happened in 1987: The stock market had a 3 day wipeout of over 22%. It took 5 years to develop the buy side enough to create the conditions for panic. This was caused by the CME futures in 1982.
Even since 1987, there has never been a crash of similar magnitude, because that initial levering stage was eventually normalized and a healthy market now exists on both bid side and ask side (sell side).
Why do I tell you this? I want to arm you with expectations to keep your wits when it all goes down. The crash on Bitcoin will likely be of many magnitudes deadlier than the stock market. We just had a 29% correction and it was frankly less than the last two. 20-40% corrections are standard in Bitcoin. When we have the futures levered crash, it’ll likely be 50-60%+. This will be hard on your psychological commitment. Prices do funny things to people’s perception, just like how BCH rose and now suddenly everyone thinks it’s a BTC contender. (Nothing’s changed, price was just pumped up and psychology affected.)
So first thing: prepare for that eventual crash, I suspect it’ll take 1-3 years to create the conditions for an extreme sell side due to leveraging. This sell will start and accelerate, hitting stop losses and margin calls, which is “mechanical selling”. The mechanical selling (forced selling) will cascade and create a feedback loop where more margin calls are hit, more stop losses, etc etc until almost all profits of the last year or 2 are wiped. Combined with the emotional panic caused by extreme falling prices, it will make people think Bitcoin isn’t real and abandon it.
Next thing: the 1987 crash, while devastating in many ways, was completely recovered by the stock market in 8 months. Seriously! The worst crash ever was repaired in 8 months and the market has been much more healthy since then. It is up dramatically since those days, and that crash was just a blip on the screen.
The same will happen with Bitcoin, but my fear is that crash will be worse than even wallsteeters can handle, and it may shake you HODLers to the core.
But if you understand that the powerful selling is just a function of the leveraged previous buying, it’s just fundamentally an opportunity.
I will ride this hard as we lever up, and after an extreme period of euphoria, when Bitcoin is on every front page, when every HODLer owns a mansion, when your government-loving socialist neighbour is asking for your help converting money to Bitcoin, I’ll be lightening up heavily, waiting for the crash. I will bet everything at the bottom of the crash, and sail off into the sunset a crypto-god.
Good luck guys. I hope you weather the next 1-3 years with great savvy.
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(SNIP)
it's not actually possible to create a decentralized digital currency, rendering every single cryptocurrency released as having zero fundamentals, and thus having no value.
(SNIP)
The Jew bankers and overlords like Ben Bernanke and
(SNIP)
try and prevent people from buying metals
(SNIP)
Hiya Roach, missing a few beats? Long time without a reference to rent-seeking usury schemes. |
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I don't know what to make of it, but it doesn't seem irrelevant. Anyone share their thoughts? |
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I have a room filled with miners that is actually quite hot. Pretty sure you could run a sauna on miners in the summer months.
Or a grow room with (cold) LED lights in the winter! I sleep in it sometimes too because I like lingering inside the noise. They actually help me fall asleep and stop me from waking up randomly.
You win the Bitcoiner of the month award. Hehe, a fairly uniform noise without bursts or similar transients actually helps several people in getting and staying asleep, including children with troubled sleep patterns. I used to prepare custom soundscape CDs for my nephews when they were wakeful toddlers. |
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Being more than half spam because I can not find a single transaction with a really low rate? Excuse my ignorance
It's not more than half spam. It's less than half wit. Maybe ask mom and dad to put on that funny colorful video on YouTube. This forum is for the grown-ups, you see. Now to bed, good boy! Shall we risk another no-pampers night? My little man will manage eh? Or will it turn into a stinky mess like last Sunday? Don't bother replying. I won't be able to read your post, unfortunately. |
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We're running into outlandishly OT territory. I hope the mod doesn't mind that much, but I have to remind my good friends of serious issues. To me she looks like she´s got a kick into her face, fat lip and all. No, she´s cool, but this is a beauty contest, no ?
And Salma Hayek has to big boobs.
Sorry, girls !
Salma Hayek runs in the MILF/GILF category. She's 51. Still quite shapely, don't mean no offense, ma'am, I mean I could make time for you one of these weekends but... sorry, Salma! |
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Not to sound bearish, but looking at the charts it's clear that the pump started in earnest on 11/24 @ ~$8200.
So we could end up revisiting that level at some point. Which would still be healthy and wouldn't end this upward trajectory.
Also, the conspirator in me says that the pumpers planned to dump ahead of The Big Bang Theory episode. I guess they don't want 3M new Average Joes to jump in to bitcoin. Got to keep them far away.
Got my buy orders ready to roll. Jimbooooo, you woke up yet?  |
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3) Have Emily Ratajkowski as your wife. Put up with her body and her shit for the rest of your life with no option for divorce, ever. Pretty girl no doubt, but beauty never lasts forever. And even if it did, the average male mammal needs change at least once in a while. Ever felt abnormal desire for a woman, even if she's objectively less attractive than your wife/gf? I know I did. Uh, I mean, I do. So if I had to choose a millionaire's dream, the only choice that would make sense for me in that slot would be 3) be able to pick a woman of the month (or in moderation: of the semester) from a panel of candidates guaranteed to contain at least one or two you consider quite attractive - even if not incredibly so as Emily or Miss Prettybutt (thanks, Lightfoot). Now you're just being greedy! Some greed is good, confirmed sources tell me. |
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3) Have Emily Ratajkowski as your wife. Put up with her body and her shit for the rest of your life with no option for divorce, ever. Pretty girl no doubt, but beauty never lasts forever. And even if it did, the average male mammal needs change at least once in a while. Ever felt abnormal desire for a woman, even if she's objectively less attractive than your wife/gf? I know I did. Uh, I mean, I do. So if I had to choose a millionaire's dream, the only choice that would make sense for me in that slot would be 3) be able to pick a woman of the month (or in moderation: of the semester) from a panel of candidates guaranteed to contain at least one or two you consider quite attractive - even if not incredibly so as Emily or Miss Prettybutt (thanks, Lightfoot). EDIT: Here's for posterity and reference. |
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I'm liking this correction a lot. Small enough until now not to be a source of worry, but significant enough to paint a thin layer of reality over our breathtaking bull run. It does look more legit now, doesn't it?
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So I was just referred to Bitclub by someone I trade bitcoin with in meat space, says he was introduced to it through his father who is some kind of business person who knows the owners personally. I have no reason to doubt he believes what he told me, but even so, anyone know anything about it? Safe(ish) to invest in?
The way I see it, cloud mining is a flawed business model (for the subscribers, not for the sellers). If mining is indeed profitable, why should they sell a slice of their profit for a fair price? Either the price is unfair, or it is just a scam. Of course, they might be selling shares of the mining profit for fiat money immediately needed for maintenance, or for acquiring new gear and so on, but it's a very long shot. I'd imagine they should have their cash flow under check if they're so successful. And I've never heard of current mining gear being sold on credit. On the contrary, it is usually paid before delivery - often much too long before delivery. TL;DR I reckon you'd be better off investing your subscription fee directly in bitcoin. |
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Just got an email from Xapo: Hi xxx,
As we informed you in previous communications, we are approaching the December 14th deadline in which you’ll need to convert your Bitcoin Cash (BCH) balance that was generated during the August 1st fork to BTC.
Our Terms of Use clearly state that the only digital currency supported by Xapo is Bitcoin (BTC). If you want to store, transfer and/or use any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, you cannot do so through the Xapo Services. If, as a consequence of a “fork” (as such term is commonly known in the bitcoin industry), Bitcoin holders are granted with equivalent or proportional amount of the new digital currency or values that are not Bitcoin, Xapo shall not have any obligation, whatsoever, in connection to such new digital currency or value.
(SNIP)
Rekt. They lost my custom for their BCH/S2X support. Are they turning their cloak now that they see failure? |
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