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3921  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 27, 2018, 10:23:19 PM
Closer flirting with 11k.
Bob's shovel must be a large one.
Keep at it!
3922  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 27, 2018, 06:56:55 PM
(snip)

Just waiting for roach to turn up talking about how it's all part of (((their))) plan
I have he or she on ignore and it's so much better not reading all the hate bollocks
He or she?
It's as likely to be a "she" as a Zionist.
3923  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2018, 05:29:39 AM
If you run it on test net someone will run it on main net and then we have self manufactured fork crisis.  
You just build some heavy machinery replay protection trick with each parameter change (or maybe just for the initial one), so the self manufactured crisis makers can fork themselves, or rather fork off, as they wish. Client nodes still know which chain is which.

In other words: you build a loaded toy gun and show the world how it works. Then someone misguided recklessly takes it and makes into a real gun without client node consensus, so they end up in toy world.

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Mem pool organically rising.  Bullish?
Not much of a jokerman diviner myself, but I'd say "likely, but not necessarily".
3924  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2018, 05:25:40 AM

There must be some way outta here
Said the joker to the thief
There's too much confusion
I can't get no relief
That's a man of the mountains, he can walk on the clouds.
A manipulator of crowds with the moon in his eyes.
3925  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2018, 04:54:16 AM
After reading comments in this thread I have been persuaded there is a real risk that a POW change would just further the Bcash agenda and so isn’t worth the risk right now. Even “preparing” is risky.  

For a threat to have the desired effect the subject must be convinced the threat is credible. Preparations are essential.

Bgold showed it is easy enough.  
Yes, but actually testing some alternance between PoW methods (one of which is old SHA-2) with variable mix percentages/strategies would make the point that much clearer. Testnet only, at first.

Just predispose the "combination strategy" and "combination factor (PoW#1)" ... "combination factor (PoW#n)" fields, and play with them a little. Then the (0, 1, ... , 0) position is exactly as today. Not to be disruptive, we'll try normalized(0, 1, 0.1, ... , 0) next - or (0, 0.97, 0.03, ... , 0), you know, just for the heck of it. Hm, and let's see what happens by combining them differently. Who's playing "bad guy" for this round of simulations? How many ASIC miners do you have?

The parameters could be tweaked by hand at first, just to get a feel for it. Later on, they could auto-adjust depending on measurable blockchain/mempool metrics. I'll let your gaming fantasy get wild here.

No need to freak out, gentlemen. The parameters on main net are still fixed at normalized(0, 1, 0, 0, ... , 0) = (0, 1, 0, 0, ... , 0). That's plain ol'corn for you. This is only a testnet game, of course. Nice though, eh?

That would really make a point.
3926  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 05:23:11 PM
Andreas has an opinion on this %51 attack debate also.
https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/967432856745193473

I am convinced.
Twitter media aren't working well, no suitable MIME type and stuff. I found a link to the full talk on YouTube, but it's almost 1 hour long. Could you provide an approximate time or a YouTube link to the appropriate time?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncPyMUfNyVM
Thank you  Cheesy
3927  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 04:52:12 PM
Andreas has an opinion on this %51 attack debate also.
https://twitter.com/Xentagz/status/967432856745193473

I am convinced.
Twitter media aren't working well, no suitable MIME type and stuff. I found a link to the full talk on YouTube, but it's almost 1 hour long. Could you provide an approximate time or a YouTube link to the appropriate time?
3928  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 03:04:34 PM
Adam Smith was right. Stop trying to control things and everything works out. So there is only one shovel maker? That means their products are functional and their prices are reasonable. The moment either of those stop being the case, someone else will overtake them.

The invisible hand only works if there are no hidden hand-choppers, like unnaturally high entry barriers to the business or vast discrepancies in the price of energy.
Alright, point them out.
I'll point out just one: delayed access to leading edge mining hardware. A jus primae noctis of sorts, imposed by the lord to the commoners.
3929  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 02:42:17 PM
Adam Smith was right. Stop trying to control things and everything works out. So there is only one shovel maker? That means their products are functional and their prices are reasonable. The moment either of those stop being the case, someone else will overtake them.

The invisible hand only works if there are no hidden hand-choppers, like unnaturally high entry barriers to the business or vast discrepancies in the price of energy.
3930  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 02:35:58 PM

IMHO the only thing that can justify PoW change is Quantum computing attack on SHA2, and Cuckoo Cycle is Quantum resistant btw. Doing it now is jumping in the abyss just for the sake of change.

Core devs can come out and say "We upgrading the btc protocol to keep it safe against Quantum computers so a PoW change is necessary".

Bitmain will have no ground against this.  Grin
Just merited you - even with that fuckface avatar  Wink
3931  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 02:33:24 PM
People who can't compete always want to change the rules of the game.
Especially if the game is about keeping open competition.

Quote
I don't care if there is only one shovel maker. Good for them for being successful at what they do.
I do care, if they can charge whatever they want for their shovels, to the point of suppressing shoveling when they don't want it to happen.

Monopoly is never good, except for the monopolist. Don't jbreher yourself into a corner.
If they raised prices a hundredfold from here, and it was still profitable to buy their stuff, then that's fair game.

The market can bear whatever it can bear. Let's not turn into pretend-communists.
You don't need to be a communist to expect markets to be as efficient as they can be. In fact, market efficiency is not a primary concern in communist utopy. For capitalists, however, monopolies and oligopolies are the primary source of market inefficiency.

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And why would you compare me to yogi? That makes no sense.
Nothing personal, and probably not too accurate. All right, I apologise. The point is, although you come from very different places, you can end up arriving at the same point. Big blocks, miner power and progressive irrelevance of the network of users (as in "full nodes").
3932  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 02:27:15 PM
(snip)

(EDIT - about "softness". The initial conditions could be 100% ASIC-based, 0% others, as it is now. Then in times of mempool storms, or fork FUD, or whatever, the "others" might be gently pushed up until the situation gets back to normal.)

There can not be soft fork PoW change, it's the hardest of all hard forks.
But but... initial 0%? It's as soft as can be. As long as it doesn't budge from 0%, it's still good ol'bitcoin.

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Keep in mind that no one would more encourage such a change than Jihan Wu. If such thing happen, he will have a ground to a claim BCash is the real Bitcoin, and he knows that claim is false in current situation. I'm afraid he may even really attack Bitcoin just to make some more incentive for PoW change.
I haven't considered this. It seems a bit far fetched, but not totally out of this world.

Quote
IMHO the only thing that can justify PoW change is Quantum computing attack on SHA2, and Cuckoo Cycle is Quantum resistant btw. Doing it now is jumping in the abyss just for the sake of change.
Yes, a quantum computing breakout (unlikely for several years to come) would destroy Bitcoin as we know it. Having the necessary machinery for PoW in place could be a safety exit. Just insert Cuckoo Cycle into an "other hashing algos" slot.
3933  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 02:20:35 PM
I'd posted my reply about PoW change before reading the posts by Icygreen, flipperish, flynn and others.

I, too, would like the full nodes to have a say in the relative distribution of hash functions, but full nodes are too easy to sybyl attack. PoS vote is also dangerous, because established miners have huge availability they could employ to crush GPU- or CPU- friendly functions. That's why we will eventually need to figure out more game theory to have a stable solution.
Could you elaborate on the bold part?

PoS - Those who can prove ownership of coin get more votes.

Short: An established miner has (or can quickly have) lots of coin lying around, so he can steer the voting result more easily than a few hodlers with the same total stake (read: stash).

Longer: Giving each satoshi the same voting weight is a hard problem, possibly unsolvable. What is needed is a hypothetical system of incentives that makes GPU- and CPU- miner owned satoshis as heavy as ASIC-miner owned ones. Is such a system practical to implement? Does it ever exist? I doubt it. That's why PoS is dangerous.

Proof of Stake has coin age to consider, any participant has to first be fully upto date and part of a network for some time in order to then be part of the staking process which even then is randomised not on demand.    Theres only some average rate at which a large holder will stake not that they can force participation.   POS is dangerous if the majority of a crypto currency is liquid on an exchange perhaps, its unlikely to be especially cheap to undermine in this way
That's a good point that I haven't considered fully. Guess I need to read up a bit more.

Quote
I do imagine Proof of stake is going to be part of Ethereum this year as they move to make their transactions cheaper, faster and more efficient.   Vitalik Buterin seems quite focused on avoiding the problems bitcoin transactions had with mining fees and POS is the most viable route ?
Buterin would do better to first make sure transactions are irreversible.
3934  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 02:16:55 PM
People who can't compete always want to change the rules of the game.
Especially if the game is about keeping open competition.

Quote
I don't care if there is only one shovel maker. Good for them for being successful at what they do.
I do care, if they can charge whatever they want for their shovels, to the point of suppressing shoveling when they don't want it to happen.

Monopoly is never good, except for the monopolist. Don't jbreher yourself into a corner.
3935  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:39:35 PM
I've been considering running a mining rig simply for the education it would offer but I'm on the fence knowing that it may not be profitable and also realizing it will likely change drastically in the short term future. I also don't want to buy from jihan with bcash some overpriced, outdated box.
I mean, I seed my torrents properly and I'd prefer to contribute to BTC pools but where to start today?
We're in the same position. Mining has become a hardcore game for big players. It's financially risky and you are subjected to the whims and abuses of people like Jihan. Not to mention the policies of governments. They can't stop bitcoin, but they can stop miners fairly easily, giving the minimum mining farm size of today.

That's another reason why I would love some real decentralization by soft PoW modulation.
3936  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:30:57 PM
I, too, would like the full nodes to have a say in the relative distribution of hash functions

I would like an option for semi-full nodes, where they can store fractions of the blockchain bittorrent-like, and above all incentives for them and the full nodes, like a small fraction of the fees.
A kind of distributed checkpointing? That would be nice, I agree.

However, Bittorrent as a protocol has a lot of back-and-forth chatter, more so if it's trackerless and decentralized (DHT). That's why it just won't play nice with mesh networks like TOR. I don't know anything about the technicals of checkpointing, though. There might be some alternative solutions, but their efficiency needs to be accurately evaluated.
3937  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:22:49 PM
I'd posted my reply about PoW change before reading the posts by Icygreen, flipperish, flynn and others.

I, too, would like the full nodes to have a say in the relative distribution of hash functions, but full nodes are too easy to sybyl attack. PoS vote is also dangerous, because established miners have huge availability they could employ to crush GPU- or CPU- friendly functions. That's why we will eventually need to figure out more game theory to have a stable solution.
Could you elaborate on the bold part?

PoS - Those who can prove ownership of coin get more votes.

Short: An established miner has (or can quickly have) lots of coin lying around, so he can steer the voting result more easily than a few hodlers with the same total stake (read: stash).

Longer: Giving each satoshi the same voting weight is a hard problem, possibly unsolvable. What is needed is a hypothetical system of incentives that makes GPU- and CPU- miner owned satoshis as heavy as ASIC-miner owned ones. Is such a system practical to implement? Does it ever exist? I doubt it. That's why PoS is dangerous.
3938  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:11:26 PM
Also, if I'm allowed to dream wildly on future Bitcoin technology development, I would love some kind of blockchain checkpointing to be implemented. This allows ultra-light nodes to have no trust (or very little) when first syncing.
3939  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 01:05:20 PM
I'd posted my reply about PoW change before reading the posts by Icygreen, flipperish, flynn and others.

I, too, would like the full nodes to have a say in the relative distribution of hash functions, but full nodes are too easy to sybyl attack. PoS vote is also dangerous, because established miners have huge availability they could employ to crush GPU- or CPU- friendly functions. That's why we will eventually need to figure out more game theory to have a stable solution.
3940  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2018, 12:56:29 PM
This is why GPU/CPU mining is a lot better than ASICs i think.

GPU companies have to build&sell GPUs no matter what because gamers need to game. CPU manufacturers have to build&sell CPUs no matter what because there will be a demand whether people mine crypto or not. Nvidia/AMD/Intel will be making hardware no matter what. They can't be deceived by evil crypto criminals.

But ASICs? This is cancer.

There is no way Nvidia/Intel build HW and mine Bitcoin without getting noticed but Bitmain can. Because that's their only job. Nvidia and the others can't run a 2 businesses at once. They are making GPU/CPU's and we are exploiting their business. Good for us.

Maybe Cobra is right. Better late than ever.
My opinion is that preparing for a soft PoW change would be a good thing. Keywords: preparing and soft.

A monopoly on mining is an evil thing. It keeps decentralization from really taking place. However, changing PoW drastically without a grace period would only alienate the "good" miners - probably ruin them, and piss them off enough to turn them (rightfully) bad.

One way could be to have a PoW that alternates between a few different hash functions - some of which hard to implement on ASICs, probably because of insane RAM requirements although there are alternatives. The alternance should be based on past history; the percentage of SHA-256 blocks could be dynamic, so "good" miners are incentivized to keep their percentage high by maintaining good demeanor. Or there could be a multiple PoW in each block, so that both a SHA-256 proof and some other proof(s) are necessary for validation. Each PoW function should maintain a different difficulty scale, and the difficulties could be combined into some overall metric. Such a system would be highly tweakable, and adapt dynamically.

(EDIT - about "softness". The initial conditions could be 100% ASIC-based, 0% others, as it is now. Then in times of mempool storms, or fork FUD, or whatever, the "others" might be gently pushed up until the situation gets back to normal.)

Any working solution should be designed with game theory in mind, not only the obvious complexity theory. A long check on testnet would be necessary, to figure out at least the complexity part, if not the game theory part.

(Inb4 - Bitcoin is a scam designed to centralize because no digital money can ever blah blah the Joos blah blah gold and silver.)
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