The 2011 w/error has been sold.
How much did you end up selling that one for? 8 BTCThanks, glad to see prices haven't faltered on early Casascius Coins! |
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I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.
But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.
That is what I am afraid will happen.
so the announcement this week was priced in long ago but the halving which everyone was aware of since day 1 is not. i don't get it. It means that we would be going into an (unsustainable) positive feedback. I think it's more of a question why the halving wouldn't be already priced in. I kinda believe it was ... It is a matter of belief. The pullback at $266 destroyed your belief in a higher price in the shorter term, even if it did not destroy the belief in a higher price in the longer term. It was caused by a convergence of the short term expectation of price for the broader population of market participants. That happens where positive momentum meets the limit of a test of price. Lower momentum is supportive of a lower price expectation, as long as price does not outgrow momentum too fast a higher price is achievable. If price now outgrows momentum that is essentially flat on the longer term it won't peak as high, and it will probably fall lower then it would have if growth kept pace with the longer term momentum. We have seen this kind of hysteresis loop over and over again. It should be pretty clear by now what will happen. The reason the $266 peak went as high as it did was due to price keeping pace with momentum for as long as it did, this builds the belief in value. If price growth had managed to stay in check it would have grown much higher in my estimation, most likely on the order of $32^2. And I think it still can... That is, if we can avoid another blowout too soon. Everyone knows the Bitcoin halving will happen; therefore, it is priced in. |
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I would much rather we see the runup I have anticipated as a (more or less) repeat of 2012, to finally price in the halving.
But if we keep going at this rate, it won't happen... Not any time soon. Blow out too early and we have to wait.
That is what I am afraid will happen.
so the announcement this week was priced in long ago but the halving which everyone was aware of since day 1 is not. i don't get it. It means that we would be going into an (unsustainable) positive feedback. I think it's more of a question why the halving wouldn't be already priced in. |
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I fail to see why people think that the announcement for the eventual purchase of $2.5 mm of bitcoins over an unspecified period of Time will have any impact on the price of BTC? It's not like they're saying that tomorrow they have to spend that much, they have the freedom to do so over days, weeks or months even. No matter how illiquid bitcoins are, those purchases spread over any period if time wint make an impact in a $1+ billion market cap commodity. And after that, they won't be buying any bitcoins at all. When new shares are created, it will be because an authorized participant contributed bitcoins for shares. And when shares are redeemed, all that will occur is that an authorized participant turned in their shares and redeemed them for bitcoins. Whether that person then sells their coins is not assured.
That's how etf's work (which is how this vehicle is described). If this were an open end Mutual fund, then each days purchases and withdrawals would be accompanied by the fund buying or selling bitcoins on an exchange. But that's specifically not what this investment vehicle is.
they already bought their initial batch of bitcoins. but i still think price will move on this news. Wow, they sold $2.25M of Bitcoin already? Can you link the source? How long did it take? Have they sold any more beyond that, or are they waiting? |
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The 2011 w/error has been sold.
How much did you end up selling that one for? |
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So, if I understand this correctly, this is about the same thing as what the Winklevoss brothers were trying to do?
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What sinner said, in a big way.
To be honest, if all of sinner's above points come together, $1000 could be the new $20. $10k is the real milestone, if there have to be milestones with bitcoin.
No no no, you've got it all wrong. $10k could be the new $20. $100k is the REAL milestone! |
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What site(s) do you generally use for your steam trading? Just curious.
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Awesome server and a fun way to gain a extra income! Started yesterday. (You don't get much, but it's fun). Thanks for the endorsement.  The next payout is this evening, and the top players usually manage at least 0.1 BTC/week, sometimes close to 0.2 BTC. How much are they playing? A very large amount of time. The difference between .000001btc and 0btc is enormous.
You are kidding, right? If you save 0.000001 btc for 10 years, and BTC is then worth $1M/each, then you have a dollar. That's an enormous difference between $0, don't you think? 1 Million in 10 years. Fuck you. MAYBE, MAYBE like 5-15,000 by then. POSSIBLY coming kinda near 100k. But it is IMPOSSIBLE that they will be 1 MILLION dollars each in ten years, unless we make a space station and there is no money there and hardly any bitcoins and no way for anyone there to get new ones. And even then it will be a very small bubble. Geez man, no need to get all worked up about it. I was using extreme numbers to show, sarcastically, that the difference between 0.000001btc and 0btc is not, in fact, enormous. But it almost proves how wrong you are. .0000001 BTC isn't worth shit unless BTC goes up in value by like 10,000x What? That's my point as well... |
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Awesome server and a fun way to gain a extra income! Started yesterday. (You don't get much, but it's fun). Thanks for the endorsement. The next payout is this evening, and the top players usually manage at least 0.1 BTC/week, sometimes close to 0.2 BTC. How much are they playing? A very large amount of time. The difference between .000001btc and 0btc is enormous.
You are kidding, right? If you save 0.000001 btc for 10 years, and BTC is then worth $1M/each, then you have a dollar. That's an enormous difference between $0, don't you think? 1 Million in 10 years. Fuck you. MAYBE, MAYBE like 5-15,000 by then. POSSIBLY coming kinda near 100k. But it is IMPOSSIBLE that they will be 1 MILLION dollars each in ten years, unless we make a space station and there is no money there and hardly any bitcoins and no way for anyone there to get new ones. And even then it will be a very small bubble. Geez man, no need to get all worked up about it. I was using extreme numbers to show, sarcastically, that the difference between 0.000001btc and 0btc is not, in fact, enormous. |
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The difference between .000001btc and 0btc is enormous.
You are kidding, right? If you save 0.000001 btc for 10 years, and BTC is then worth $1M/each, then you have a dollar. That's an enormous difference between $0, don't you think? |
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Awesome server and a fun way to gain a extra income! Started yesterday. (You don't get much, but it's fun). Thanks for the endorsement. The next payout is this evening, and the top players usually manage at least 0.1 BTC/week, sometimes close to 0.2 BTC. |
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There seems to be a very worrying development with BFL in that in order to stop forced refunds, they're shipping out of order to people who raise chargeback requests.
To date I've seen 3; a February 2013, a March 2013 & an April 2013 orders all 'shipped' then the person raised the complaint to Paypal.
Source for those three? |
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You already hit the nail on the head. 50BTC @ 103 TH/s means they should find blocks 4x as fast as BitMinter. Which, they do... Obviously, you only get paid 1/4 per block, but it does reduce variance.
Ok cool. Coincidently, we just got the luckiest block you could ever hope for!!  Height: 257432
Created: 2013-09-12 01:24
Duration: 0m
CDF: 0.2%
Made by: p4madeus
I like those sorts of blocks.  |
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Why are our block builds so terrible on this pool these days?
My devices on the 50btc pool rarely exceed 4 hour blocks.
Where as on minter, we get these crazy 18 hour blocks!? with most blocks exceeding 6 hours
Is this just a simple fact of not having enough power to pump into the network relative to everyone else?
Minter being at 24TH and 50btc being at 103TH seems like the primary difference.
Or is it that the merged mining affects this?
You already hit the nail on the head. 50BTC @ 103 TH/s means they should find blocks 4x as fast as BitMinter. Which, they do... Obviously, you only get paid 1/4 per block, but it does reduce variance. |
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would you allow escrow?
I would if I had this unit, but for Pre-Ordering, No. Reason why is: Risk is up to the buyer, if BFL decides to not deliver, delivers extremely late or is a scam. (Past delivered 60 GH, 832 Mhash units so its very unlikely) Escrow would force a return of coins on my part if this does occur. Unless you can agree to guaranteed BTC transfer by XXX date regardless if BFL delivers or not or is a scam. The moment I receive the unit I would ship it within 1 day of getting it. Do note a buyer buying on BFL can be entitled to the same risk. Only difference here is you get the BFL unit at a discount pricing. So better then buying directly from BFL. Well, you can transfer orders between people now on BFL's website, so why not use that? |
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So why do we find nmc blocks without Btc ones ?
Because difficulty for NMC is much lower than difficulty for BTC. |
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