This seems rather premature. I suspect they saw Cointerra coming on the scene, and wanted to take away as much pre-order capital from them as possible. Good luck. Yeah, Cointerra is supposedly going to deliver in November. If KnC delivers in early November, it'll probably pay for the cost difference at least (hopefully).
I actually doubt the difficulty slope will continue on the same exponential.
I think that's a very naive assumption. But feel free to throw your money at another ASIC manufacturer when the track record for the entire industry is months to years late on delivery. I for one am not interested unless there is a guaranteed refund or discount for late delivery to compensate for the loss in ROI. Maybe you should pay attention to what I was actually saying: I think the slope 'exponent' is actually going to increase as all these large players dump their ASICs. Once people realize it's not sustainable people will spend less on chips and the slope will start to go back down. I expect it will follow a sigmoid function:  But it obviously can't continue exponentially forever. Think about it. The problem is that it will start to 'level off' when the cost is about break-even with electricity, as it did with GPUs. Actually, I'd argue that GPU mining mostly leveled off when positive ROI was around 8 months, then the BTC price drove it to break-even with electricity. I expect to see the same thing with ASICs - people will stop buying when it takes them more than 8 months to recover their initial investment. The caveat is that preorders screw up the estimates, since no one really knows how much is on preorder, and so no one can properly estimate their break even points. It could mean we accidentally shoot past the 8 month break-even window to something much longer. Right now though, a HashFast unit would break even in 10 days. At increased difficulty (quadrupled by BFL + this alone), you're still only looking at 40 days. Difficulty would have to rise to 24 times its current rate in order to see the 8 month break even point. I don't see that happening by October by any means. Because of this, I think this is still a reasonable investment, should it be legitimate and they deliver on time. I don't really trust anyone to deliver on time anymore though. |
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How does anyone know this isn't a scam? Endorsed by cypherdoc, ok. But beyond that?
Simon, assuming you're not out to steal people's money (which, truthfully, I don't think you are, but I don't know you're not), what about your ability to deliver? What if something goes wrong with the design? It consumes more electricity than expected... ok, now what? Does it mean a delay of several months for your customers while you re-engineer everything? Or the chip just flat out doesn't work because of some overlooked hardware bug. How long will it take to correct it? Or you can't find a 28nm fab to squeeze you into their schedule. What will you do?
well, a scam is where a person or group of ppl are trying to collect money w/o actually trying to design or deliver a product. that's different than just an outright failure or inability to deliver a product while delivering a good faith effort. this is definitely not the former. i'm convinced we won't have a problem with the latter. the risk is more about timing. Well, I'm asking about both. How do you know they are making a good faith effort at trying to deliver a product? So, they have some fancy pictures. They have some names on a website. How can a potential customer verify that these names are actually attached to this project? How can a potential customer know that they are as close as they say they are to delivering the product? Etc, etc. |
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How does anyone know this isn't a scam? Endorsed by cypherdoc, ok. But beyond that?
Simon, assuming you're not out to steal people's money (which, truthfully, I don't think you are, but I don't know you're not), what about your ability to deliver? What if something goes wrong with the design? It consumes more electricity than expected... ok, now what? Does it mean a delay of several months for your customers while you re-engineer everything? Or the chip just flat out doesn't work because of some overlooked hardware bug. How long will it take to correct it? Or you can't find a 28nm fab to squeeze you into their schedule. What will you do?
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SMS even better, but certainly email would be a great first step.
Actually, come to think of it, I think you can email your phone number and get a text somehow. I'll have to read up on that.
I'm on Verizon. <10 digit phone number>@vtext.com is how it works for me, and I have my BitMinter E-Mail address setup to forward to that address. Here is a Wikipedia article on how to do it with many carriers around the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SMS_gatewaysThanks! domestic-number@txt.att.net is what I was looking for.  One thing I would caution you about is to note that sometimes E-Mails have confirmation links that you need to click. Ever since I got a Galaxy S4 (upgraded from a Droid4), the SMS messages get truncated. I got all of it on the Droid4...Go figure. As a result, I can't change my E-Mail address or BTC payout address at BTCGuild since I don't have all of the confirmation link. That's why I would recommend setting up a normal E-Mail address to forward to your cell phone's SMS address. Noted, thanks. |
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SMS even better, but certainly email would be a great first step.
Actually, come to think of it, I think you can email your phone number and get a text somehow. I'll have to read up on that.
I'm on Verizon. <10 digit phone number>@vtext.com is how it works for me, and I have my BitMinter E-Mail address setup to forward to that address. Here is a Wikipedia article on how to do it with many carriers around the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SMS_gatewaysThanks! domestic-number@txt.att.net is what I was looking for. |
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Thanks Dr. I have to say, after my miners were down for 10 hrs last night/this morning before I happened to check up on them, I might have to change pools just so I can get some notifications. :\ Would really appreciate if you could get that feature on BitMinter soon!
+1 Getting this setup on a per-worker basis would be a godsend. An E-Mail sent to me saying that the pool hasn't received any shares in the last 5 minutes from a specific worker would be like having a good friend always watching and ready to say to me, "Hey moron, your stuff stopped working! Fix it!" SMS even better, but certainly email would be a great first step. Actually, come to think of it, I think you can email your phone number and get a text somehow. I'll have to read up on that. |
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I think you can change the 12 TH to 16Th in the title  ! Feels good to see the pool growing again, good job. Yeah, nice to see more and more miners are receiving their new ASIC hardware! Today I've added support to keep track of your BitMinter mining wallet balances, and mining hash rates, to CryptFolio ( thread). This helps you keep track of mining pool balances over time, and generates reports (such as your overall USD net worth). Any worker down notifications? So far, I haven't been able to find anything that will let me know if my workers are down.  I think this is only for keeping tabs on your coins. There was a nice looking website for worker down notifications but I think they are pretty much dead. I'll have something on BitMinter, but no ETA yet. Thanks Dr. I have to say, after my miners were down for 10 hrs last night/this morning before I happened to check up on them, I might have to change pools just so I can get some notifications. :\ Would really appreciate if you could get that feature on BitMinter soon! |
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Firstbits is still down on blockchain.info. Is there a live example of ABE with firstbits lookup?
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Today I've added support to keep track of your BitMinter mining wallet balances, and mining hash rates, to CryptFolio ( thread). This helps you keep track of mining pool balances over time, and generates reports (such as your overall USD net worth). Any worker down notifications? So far, I haven't been able to find anything that will let me know if my workers are down. |
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Actually a good price. I'd consider it if I had that much coin to spend.
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I've been laughing at people who fell for the BFL scam for ages .. but when I say "Sure, ButterflyScams will surely deliver" on IRC then people still get upset because I don't have huge faith in this company.
Thank's for a very entertaining thread, guys. Keep up the good work.
btw, I know that BFL has delivered a few half-baked miners to a few select customers. Ducktape and glue.. oh my. I guess I could start saying "Sure, ButterflyScams will surely deliver .. SOMETHING"
They've actually delivered quite a large number of miners. It's just their pre-order list is HUGE, and we only know of a small part of it. |
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I don't know... to me, it sounds like there were existing rules in place, the builders failed to check if their plan complied with these existing rules, and they are ordered to tear down their building because they did not follow these existing rules.
Maybe the existing rules need to be changed (ok, YES they do), but they shouldn't have built something that doesn't comply with them in the first place.
Yes, you can rest assured that there is no shortage of rules and laws in place. Dont break any or you may get fined. It is illegal to be drunk on Licensed Premises (such as a pub or bar). It is illegal to eat mince pies on December 25. It is illegal to die in the Houses of Parliament. It is illegal to go within 100 yards of the queen when not wearing hose, socks or stockings. It is illegal for a lady to eat chocolates on a public conveyance. It is illegal to stop and collect an animal you have hit with your car, however the person behind you can. It is legal for a male to urinate in public, as long it is on the rear wheel of his motor vehicle and his right hand is on the vehicle. A bed may not be hung out of a window. With the exception of carrots, most goods may not be sold on a Sunday. Women are permitted to go topless in Liverpool provided they work as a clerk in a shop selling tropical fish. Placing a postage stamp that bears the Queen (or King) upside down is considered treason. Any whale washed up on the shore is the property of the Queen, so she can use its bones for her corset. A pregnant woman may relieve herself anywhere she likes, including (if she requests) in a policeman’s helmet. Any person found breaking a boiled egg at the sharp end will be sentenced to 24 hours in the village stocks (enacted by Edward VI). It is lawful to kill a Scotsman in York if he is carrying a bow and arrow. In Hereford you can shoot a Welsh person on a Sunday, with a longbow, in the Cathedral Close. You can shoot a Welsh person with a bow and arrow in Chester, inside the city walls and after midnight. An English inspector may order a Welsh person to tear down his house if he desires to do so. (Not a law yet  ) My point is, until the laws are changed, a person should expect to suffer the consequences if they ignore them. Expecting any other outcome seems ridiculous. I think it's great these people wanted to build such an eco-home, but they should have lobbied to get the laws changed before pouring all this time and money into something that is going to now have to be torn down. I don't know... to me, it sounds like there were existing rules in place, the builders failed to check if their plan complied with these existing rules, and they are ordered to tear down their building because they did not follow these existing rules.
Maybe the existing rules need to be changed (ok, YES they do), but they shouldn't have built something that doesn't comply with them in the first place.
Of course these rules need to be changed. Why is it the governments business what you do on your own property. And if you want to build something (on your own property) you need to ask them for permission, that is completely insane. Not to be a statist or anything, but there are some regulations that I'd say are good things. Ensuring buildings are up to code helps prevent crappy houses from burning themselves to the ground, or injuring/killing the occupants in a variety of other ways. You could say that it is up to a person if they want to take the risk, but what if they sell the house to someone else? Or what if their house burning down also catches their neighbor's house on fire? You could say that anyone buying a second-hand house should get a thorough inspection, but there are some things that cannot be inspected once a house is built. On a similar note, some communities want to keep a certain visual standard - by owning property in those communities, you are expected to adhere to those rules. If you don't want to adhere to those rules, that's fine - buy property somewhere else. I think Sisters, Oregon is a great example - all of the buildings in that community, you might be able to label as "quaint". It gives the town an old western sort of feel, and it's a great vibe. They couldn't do that without having standards and regulations for the town. Don't get me wrong - I'm an advocate of small government, and think the governments in the world today are, generally speaking, quite corrupt and overreaching, but there are legitimate reasons to have building regulations. |
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I don't know... to me, it sounds like there were existing rules in place, the builders failed to check if their plan complied with these existing rules, and they are ordered to tear down their building because they did not follow these existing rules.
Maybe the existing rules need to be changed (ok, YES they do), but they shouldn't have built something that doesn't comply with them in the first place.
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There is very little current flowing through the signal line on a PSU - you won't be burning anything down by jumping it with a paper clip. |
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quote: "The information that I am publishing here confirms some of the worst fears which have been expressed by many people about Butterfly Labs (BFL)" "While I was at the Data Center I spoke extensively with Joe of J.Morgan Hosting; an outfit which is in reality a BFL front as certain BFL execs own a good portion of it and Joe, being a geek, really likes to impress people with his geekiness. This means that when he started talking, he just couldn’t shut up and told me all sorts of things, perhaps thinking that I was directly involved in what I must now call fraud on a truly massive scale." http://bflfraud.com/The part you quoted doesn't concern me. When BFL first started advertising the co-location services, it was explicitly owned by Josh (Inaba). That changed at some point along the way, but I never thought that J. Morgan Hosting was a separate entity from BFL, nor did I think that it mattered. I'm not sure why it would matter. This is the part that is much more concerning: Essentially what went down in this deal is that Cloudhashing had managed to get a BFL 1500 G/hs Minirig removed from the delivery queue and needed someone to verify its existence and quality before sending an amount someplace in the area of $100,000.00 to BFL for the purchase. If this is true, and BFL is allowing people to skip the queue by paying more, without making this a published option for purchase, then I completely agree this is fraud. |
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Fundamentally, Bitcoin markets still have a problem. And that problem is that a few hold so many coins. It doesn't matter what small fish do, when whales start selling, everyone will follow because the small fish can not create enough buying pressure to stop it. We've seen that with every crash. Plus many small fish are weak hands and will follow whatever everyone else is doing anyway.
Bottom line, if whales sell at $1000, everyone else will try to sell too. And many wont get out in time, just like the $260 crash. If whales start big buying, so will everyone else. All the talk about new people and media attention, blah, blah, blah...is pointless. If they are not new whales entering the market, it won't do anything to change the trend created by the whales.
Really we should be thankful any time that whales are selling out, because it means they are distributing their "hoard" of Bitcoins to many other people. Whales buys their bitcoins back at lower prices, so no new bitcoins is distributed to many people If they're lucky, they do. But no one can call the market perfectly. Even with attempted manipulation, those whales can very well lose a good chunk of their coin. Although I'm a lurker here (and only been "into" BTC for about half a year).. has anyone else realized that the HIGHER a BTC is worth in USD.. the "cashing out" part becomes less easy?
For example, lets pretend John has 100 bitcoins, and his "magic number" to cash out is $1,000. That's $100,000 in USD.
BTC hit's $1,000, and John says "ok, time for me to dump my coins and be $100k richer."
Gox is just a mess right now in terms of USD widthdrawls. Coinbase etc IS an option, but there are limits there and cashing out more then $10,000 at a time might trigger your bank to wonder what you're doing. Not to mention, their "price" is valued much less then Mt. Gox (which a seller will prefer).
That leaves the method most people champion - LocalBitcoins. Now, what exactly will John do in this situation that will make life easy?
Put up an ad that says "Hi, selling $10,000 in BTC, contact me for an inperson transaction".?
Where/how does John conduct such a transaction that guarantees his safety/ease/protection? Meeting a stranger in a Starbucks to sell them $10,000 in bitcoin is.. just.. plain.. weird isn't it? And then what are the odds that 10 people (even spread out over days & weeks) will have $10,000 or more in cash lying around to meet up other strangers @ Starbucks to buy BTC?
Am I making any sense here?
That might be true today, but you can guarantee that the more BTC is worth, the more VC's and the like will be pouring money into Bitcoin-related ventures to solve exactly these types of problems. |
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Fundamentally, Bitcoin markets still have a problem. And that problem is that a few hold so many coins. It doesn't matter what small fish do, when whales start selling, everyone will follow because the small fish can not create enough buying pressure to stop it. We've seen that with every crash. Plus many small fish are weak hands and will follow whatever everyone else is doing anyway.
Bottom line, if whales sell at $1000, everyone else will try to sell too. And many wont get out in time, just like the $260 crash. If whales start big buying, so will everyone else. All the talk about new people and media attention, blah, blah, blah...is pointless. If they are not new whales entering the market, it won't do anything to change the trend created by the whales.
Really we should be thankful any time that whales are selling out, because it means they are distributing their "hoard" of Bitcoins to many other people. |
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Received 2x BFL Singles today (ordered June 2012).
Was a bit of a pleasant surprise, as I was only expecting one. (double-checked the order, I paid for two, just forgot)
I wouldn't exactly expect them to screw devs, mods or business owners. Although 14 months can't exactly be called preferential treatment.  I received my two singles a couple weeks back. I'm not a dev, mod, or business owner. SgtSpike, don't kid yourself. You've been here since the beginning and are very vocal and well respected. I'm sure you would be on the A List too. It doesn't suprise me that you got your delivery either. It will shock me if Garr gets his delivery and doesn't lose his spot in the queue. Fair enough. Another example, my father (who doesn't even have a name registered on any bitcoin-related forum) also received his two singles, about a week after I received mine. His order was 6/24.
bfgminer worked out of the box on Fedora Linux.
One SC Single is happily mining away, seeing 55-60 GH as expected.
Another Single is not running currently, due to faulty BFL-supplied PSU. Will test second unit tomorrow.
Only 55-60 oh well - that'll learn you  (My 2 are 61.5 and 62.5 ... cgminer 'out of the box' on Fedora 18 ... and now Xubuntu 11.04) Dev fight! |
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Received 2x BFL Singles today (ordered June 2012).
Was a bit of a pleasant surprise, as I was only expecting one. (double-checked the order, I paid for two, just forgot)
I wouldn't exactly expect them to screw devs, mods or business owners. Although 14 months can't exactly be called preferential treatment. I received my two singles a couple weeks back. I'm not a dev, mod, or business owner. |
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Hmm.. I guess ill change my mind to buy it? Is there any other better asic that ships fast out there?
If you are serious, give Bitfury a look. Yes there is a wait, but they aren't taking orders for things they dont think they can deliver. They had an august delivery purchase(limited and over), and a October delivery purchase which I think is still available. https://megabigpower.com/shop/Look them up in the Custom hardware section. Wait, so you'd recommend buying from a company who has delivered nothing vs a company who is actively delivering units? Uh, Yes I would! I've a large amount of money with both. And so far I have some BFL equipment, not all of it. If you read the threads and notice how Inaba, AKA Josh of BFL talks to customers, um err, oh wait uh investors, hmm not quite right either. I think it was Monumental ASS-Holes, yep that's the one! VS the way Dave at megabighash communicates, I would quickly run away from BFL and towards Bit Fury. Which if my charge backs hold BitFury will get those funds as well. And of course i am not posting this for you SgtSpike, I am sure you know all this already. I posted merely for newbs to read and do their own research so they can make their own decisions. Oh, and not only being called a "Monumental Asshole", and seeing customers being coerced to follow the BFL philosophy of damnit dont worry about what we told you yesterday, today we tell you the truth! What about the violation of PayPal's TOS which I think states all pre-orders must be delivered within 20 days, I could be wrong on this. Then BFL's slight of hand to bait you into waiting 2 months or more for your pre-order. Heyyyy, wait a minuite, isn't that like 60 days or something?? Damn that puts you outside the 45 day paypal easy dispute window. How did that happen?.... Dave still offers a 100% refund. Damn not only is Bitfury gear cheaper per GH/s the guy will give me back my money? What the hell is wrong with him? I don't know guys, I think I will just tell all newbs, "BFL is the greatest company ever! You would be a complete idiot to buy from anyone else." That way maybe all newcomers fund BFL up, and i would probably get my money back quicker. It was simply a response to a question and I gave my opinion. Now you have my reasoning. I would not usually get ugly on any company, but thank you SgtSpike for the opportunity. I feel much better now. Now that my rant is over, I will say this for BFL. My experience with their gear is good. The company, not so much. This forum is riff with negative posts about BFL. You make your own judgement. I wonder why I am seeing more posts about how I got my charge back or refund from BFL than post about how great it was for BFL to send me the gear I ordered a year ago. I am not saying they are not shipping and I am not saying you would never get your gear. All I would suggest to anyone that has the desire to purchase ASIC mining equipment is read, read, read. Call BFL up before you make an order, talk to them. If you like them, by all means, buy all you can. Hell mortgage your house, buy more I will not post in this thread anymore. If you want to carry it further, find me in the custom hardware section. I would like to close with what my good friend likes to ask. What about that FCC cert?? How come my miners dont have an FCC cert? Fair points, I was just wondering. |
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