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441  Economy / Gambling / Re: Exploring the Math Behind Crash on: August 27, 2023, 01:20:06 PM
In gambling, everything with impossible will become possible, and vice versa.
It's a game of probability and win or lose can come with our bet.

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We have to determine it to be more profit-oriented when our finger is on the mouse and bet button. As I remember in high school, there was a math lesson about opportunity theory, but the results were not certain exactly what we wanted, because the number of output results is always two-way which it depend on how many times we spin it. So when we talk about math in gambling, the results will obviously be different and unexpected.
When we bet, our andrenaline and dopamine will change a lot which causes us to be more uncontrollable. We will make more emotional decisions with our bets and it's hard to stop if we can not have a calm mind. Mostly we lose our control with betting, a longer time we are betting continuously, a more possibility we will lose control of emotion and decision.

Math will no longer work for us when our minds are already emotional controlled.
442  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Stop loss on: August 27, 2023, 01:11:47 PM
When trading with many pairings, your stop loss may be hit. Each currency has different levels of volatility, which is why the stop loss is usually triggered. As a result, you must investigate each pair in order to choose an appropriate stop loss size. The lower the wicks, the smaller the volatility. The more the volatility, the greater the wicks. So, if you want to be safe, choose a pair with low volatility, such as Bitcoin, which is ideal for scalping.
Trading with many trading pairs is like you are overdo your trading that is not good because you will more easily lose control on your positions.

Holding for investment is best. Trading with limited trading pairs is one of best ways for trading with Spot. You will not have to spend too many times to analyze many things for those projects you are trading with. By trading, your positions will be affected by news so you must follow up news as well that is time consuming.

If you trade and ignore news, it's not good as sometimes with fiascos like Terra, Celsius, FTX, you must follow up news to cut loss and reduce your loss.
443  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: August 26, 2023, 07:48:16 PM
Atalanta lost versus Forsinone  Huh

and now Roma is losing 2-0 after the 1st half.

What is happening, if they will end losing it will be a dramatic start for As Roma.
Roma have bad defense in this season as they got 4 conceded goals so far and are very bad to fight against counter attacking of opponents. Chris Smalling again was beaten by attacking players easily with face to face situation.

With the late conceded goal in a first half extra time, AS Roma will have a very difficult second half and they nearly have no hope to get three points from Verona. Belotti did have some try in this first half but it seems he will not be able to beat Verona defenders. Roma need to change their attacking methods in the second half and I am not sure why Spinazzola did not start in this match.
444  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: First Transaction on BitcoinMarket in 2010 on: August 26, 2023, 05:58:31 PM
According to dwdollar, the first transaction on BitcoinMarket took place at noon (their time) on 17th March 2010.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=20.msg748#msg748

Does anyone know if there is a record of how many Bitcoin this was for and at what price?
I am not sure about total bitcoin was traded on BitcoinMarket.com exchange but there are two articles and one topic about the exchange and trading price of Bitcoin back in March 2010.

The first Bitcoin exchange
A brief history of cryptocurrency exchanges
A bit of history: What the first bitcoin exchange looked like

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Bitcoinmarket.com, however, provided far greater overall consensus on the value of bitcoin, presenting a price at launch of around $0.003, moving up to $0.05 in the summer of that year, which is about as far as any price chart will go back to.
445  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Stop loss on: August 26, 2023, 05:28:36 PM
I had some scenarios of my stop loss being pushed down a little bit incurring  me more loss what could be the possibilities.
Stop loss order is one of the best weapons in trading but it can fail if the market has very fast movement like crash or worse Cascade effect that is more terrible than crash.

You can consider another order that can protect your capital better than Stop loss order. It's Stop-Limit Order: What It Is and Why Investors Use It

Binance What is a stop limit order

Video How to use Stop limit, Stop loss orders on Binance
446  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Bitcoin's Dilemma: Embrace the Dip or Brace for Uncertainty at Crucial Support on: August 22, 2023, 02:05:19 AM
This is not the first time such a large sell-off has resulted in a bitcoin price drop.
It is not the first and won't be the last sell-off. Hey, sell-off is chance to accumulate and it is not like a crash to the hell.
Bitcoin historical corrections from all time highs. Hopefully the writer will write a new article with some updates for latest market corrections since 2021.


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It is a fantastic opportunity for buyers to accumulate more when many individuals are moaning about losing some percentage of their money as a result of the recent dip when the market had some decrease that brought us back to the $26,000 level.
From all time high about $69,000 to $26,000, Bitcoin has a correction about 60% that is good enough for accumulation. It's worse chance for accumulation than months ago when it was about $16,000 but with only 8 months before 2024 halving, it's very last chance for us to buy discount Bitcoin.

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Those who keep whining about not entering the market early can take advantage of this time since the market is so unclear that you can't tell if this is the lowest it can go today before experiencing a long-term positive market. There is never a bad time to start buying bitcoin, especially if you use the DCA approach to manage your savings.
They are fearful now and laughed at people who are accepting risk to buy Bitcoin dips but they will regret in future months by missing the train with discount prices. In future, around 2024 halving in April or after that, they will be greed and buy Bitcoin with new massive FOMO waves on the market.
447  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin negatives on: August 22, 2023, 01:57:50 AM
If we are to consider today and tomorrow, then we can say that fiat is stable.
Fiat is stable between today and tomorrow but after a while, few years, several decades, we see fiat currency loses its purchasing power. It is less terrible with fiat currencies at big nations with better inflation controls and stronger economies. Unfortunately, it is more terrible at nations with weaker, unhealthier economies and hyper inflationary policies from governments that care more about their benefits than their citizens' benefits.

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Anyway, I agree that coexistence is much more likely than Bitcoin taking over fiat. But then I'm not losing hope that when the time comes when people would finally demand that money be separated from state, Bitcoin would be the preferred choice.
As investors, we care more about profit, growth of our capital and we tend to accept risk to achieve profit. Whether profit we get in fiat value worth anything, it is another story and depends on each national central bank and their fiat currency.
448  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What they used before Blockchain Explorer? on: August 19, 2023, 02:13:53 PM
Was this happened before or after theymos become the sole admin of this forum, I believe previously the admin of this forum is satoshi himself. I always wonder why theymos was chosen to be the admin (since he is not the one founded the forum,  --or maybe he is actually the one founded the forum, maybe he is satoshi--)
theymos was the third head administrator, after Satoshi Nakamoto and Sirius. You can see he described how and when he became a head administrator.

The first Bitcoin block explorer was created by theymos two years before he became a head administrator.

Why did he become a head administrator?

I guess it is because he one of first Bitcointalk members and has deep technical knowledge (his block explorer is an example for his technical skills) and contribution for Bitcoin and Bitcointalk communities.

So far theymos is the only people who code the forum.
It's surprising how well-documented history can become totally forgotten... Satoshi created the forum on Nov 22, 2009, and was head administrator until almost 2011. Then Sirius was head administrator until 2012, which is when I took over.
449  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: If you must follow or use the services of trading signals providers on: August 19, 2023, 01:58:45 PM
If you must follow or use the services of trading signals which is not bad in itself you should do so smartly.
If you are smart, you won't use trading signal services as you can learn trading knowledge, indicators, technical & fundamental analysis and psychology cycles of market.

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By smartly, I mean that at the beginning it is all about following and understanding the thinking process behind those signals and learning everyday.
If you can use free trading signal groups to support your learning, it's helpful and I guess you are referring about that. If you use trading signal groups with different ways and not for learning, you will be more dependent on those groups and even after months and years, you will not gain any knowledge.

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If you insist on using them, do not do so blindly, validate each signal provider by putting in the work. Record their past four to six months' trades on a spreadsheet and check them on historical charts. After you have done this, you may now proceed to choosing the ones consistently in profit despite their losing trades. The advantage is that they will help you reduce your time spent in analysis.
It is good way to learn trading but most of people who use and rely on trading signals will not care to learn as that. It takes a lot of time and high discipline to check results of trading signals. I am sure not many people are ready to do those steps and can complete their tracking process.

I appreciate your guide as it can be helpful for newbies who can complete these steps and for such newbies, if they see your topic, it will be a gift for them.
450  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: PayPal UK To (Temporally) Halt Bitcoin and Crypto Purchases on: August 16, 2023, 11:51:20 PM
I can't find any announcement regarding their trading halt on their official Paypal Newsroom but many reputed news posted about this so more likely it is true.



But it has nothing related to the crypto, it seems the PayPal has to align their policies according to the UK's regulatory framework so I guess it won't affect the prices to considerable extent.
They announced to re-enable cryptocurrency purchases for UK users in early 2024. I guess they are following requirements from UK government to comply with latest changes in regulations.

But from now till early 2024, many more changes in regulations which can not be known by Paypal so it's safe to not expect they will succeed with their Compliance efforts.

They wrote that user cryptocurrency will be safe and no fee charged if stored on Paypal till 2024, when they allow users to purchase cryptocurrency again. But to be safer, we should move our cryptocurrency from Paypal accounts and store them in our self custodial wallets.

Reminder: do not keep your money in online accounts
451  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Which Crypto exchange is the best for intermediaries Traders and Invesotors. on: August 15, 2023, 05:12:11 PM
It is obvious that you have not visited the KuCoin exchange for a long time, otherwise you would know that mandatory verification has been introduced on the exchange since July 15, 2023. Thus, all new users must pass KYC during registration, and existing users must pass verification or withdraw their funds from the exchange.
Kucoin was no mandatory KYC in the past and appeared in kycnot.me so many people did not notice details and quickly thought it is non KYC because it appears on a website for non-KYC exchanges.

Crypto exchange Kucoin to introduce mandatory ID checks
452  Economy / Speculation / Re: What is your anticipation on bitcoin market capitalization as for 2030 on: August 15, 2023, 11:39:17 AM
I went on a research on the history of bitcoin, on the process of the research I found out that as of 28 march 2013 bitcoin market capitalization passed $1 billion, which I came to realize if with the high rapid spread of bitcoin global and the introduction of new ways and methods of mining and new traders what is your anticipation on bitcoin market capitalization as of 2030?
To calculate a Bitcoin market capitalization, you must have its total supply and its price or you will need its circulating supply for diluted market capitalization.

To simplify, you can think of Bitcoin price in 2030. In that year, Bitcoin will have to go through 2024, 2028 halvings, two more halvings. If $69k is top of 2020 - 2021 bull run, I expect Bitcoin will make two new all time highs after 2024 and 2028 halvings. I think it is realistic for Bitcoin to make its price to $150,000 or $200,000 in 2030.

But remember 2030 will be a bear market, not bull market so price from $150,000 or $200,000 is my expectation for Bitcoin price as its highest price in 2028 - 2029 bull market, not in 2030.
453  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Would We Pay Taxes When We Don't Exchange Bitcoin for Fiat Anymore? on: August 12, 2023, 02:48:06 PM
Despite this, he trusts Bitcoin self-custody, and that is the reason why he holds bitcoin. He complains that his bitcoin just sits in his hard wallet, and he doesn't even know what to do with it. According to him, his fear is that if he sells it during the next bull run, he will be taxed, and he doesn't want that. A question arises: Would taxes still be applicable if a time comes when exchanging bitcoin for fiat is no longer necessary?
If you invest to get profit that will be used to make your life better, more prosperous, with more comfortable equipment, accessory for your life, you must take profit. Because if you don't take profit, don't cash out, you will not have anything to make your life better physically.

If you have good annual income, you will be taxed and I think it is fair if you have to pay tax after taking big profit with your bitcoin. Taxing on high income people is not new and we all understand that we will have to pay tax.

If you buy bitcoin, hold it for your children, many years later, you will not have to worry about tax and your children who inherits bitcoin from you, will pay tax in future if they sell those coins and get profit.
454  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Does the number of Confirmation relate to the number of bitcoin nodes? on: August 12, 2023, 02:38:45 PM
My assumption is that the confirmation can only be done by a node and the number of confirmation means total amount of node that have verified that transaction.
If this is the case, will the first transaction of the bitcoin has the highest number of confirmation?
Miners confirm transactions on the network. Nodes validate transactions and store transactions, blocks in their nodes.

Each block on the blockchain is like a layer of soil, one above another. If your transaction is confirm by block #100,000, later blocks will be added on top of the #100,000 block and will increase security of your transaction, make it more irreversible.

How many Bitcoin confirmations is enough?
455  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If Bitcoin is centralized, will it still have value ? on: August 12, 2023, 02:31:42 PM
Now if in a hypothetical case this happens and they find a way to centralize it, it would cause a kind of notorious decline, since most seek this for the simple reason that no one besides the one who owns the bitcoin can control it, if this changes it will no longer they will see bitcoin in the same way, since the people who probably caught their attention would lose interest, considerably lowering the demand and therefore the value of the BTC.
I don't think it will happen but assume it will.

I believe it will be a very big milestone in Bitcoin history and I am sure it will impact Bitcoin price, communities and market a lot. It will cause massive panic and certainly market will have panic sells but it won't last too long. The market will come to a point to calm down and bounce back from it, then strongly recover when people realize they did panic sells.

Because Bitcoin has bigger communities, better than centralized shitcoins so how will it drop to like $100 or $10 because of becoming centralized? It is very impossible in my opinion but maybe some people will disagree with me on that.
456  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What Bitcoin Phase are we on: August 12, 2023, 02:26:21 PM
I would simply wait for Bitcoin Halving to occur before declaring it in a bull run or something like that. Any percent of correction can still happen on the Bitcoin chart, so don't be biased to be honest.
But for long term, this is a good buying spot. These prices will never come again in the future. I bet. SO if you have been waiting for a good time to buy, this is it.
We all can not time in the market and know where is bottom and when bottom will be found and confirmed. Bottom can be touched a few times before a bull run starts so I believe we will have two or three times to buy around bottom. If we miss all chances around bottom, it's our bad response against the market by being to hesitating to make buy orders.

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Also, stay away from shitcoins. Cheers.
Buying shitcoins when Bitcoin has yet ended its bear market is terrible. Because shitcoins are more vulnerable to death in bear market and if you buy them in bear market, you accept bigger risk.

It does not mean in a bull market, it is safer to buy shitcoins as they basically are shitcoins with no values and their prices are only temporarily and can disappear anytime by rug pulls, hacks, massive minting by developers or hackers.
457  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If Bitcoin is centralized, will it still have value ? on: August 11, 2023, 08:33:59 AM
What?? Is this a point to prove that Bitcoin won't lose it value, What the Altcoins had to do with the Bitcoin valuation or in reverse methodology as well, Do you mean Bitcoin won't lose its value to 100$ because there are other currencies having lower value compared to Bitcoin?
I mean if very centralized altcoins like Ethereum, BNB can have high prices, Bitcoin will have such high prices even if it changes from decentralized to centralized because it has many better contributors to its value.

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Brother, you could have said that BTC won't lose because there is a large community standing behind it, Because it's not easy to manipulate the resources, Becasue Bitcoin always stands on the top because of its market capital, or anything making more sense.
Did you read my post?

I emphasized that many factors decide value of Bitcoin, not only centralization or decentralization, even I did not describe those factors. I wrote that if Bitcoin becomes centralized, it will have higher value than Ethereum, BNB as it has more better factors, and at least it will be about $2,000 that is a high value for Bitcoin before 2017 bull run.

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Not an offensive motive but really I wasn't expecting such type of explanation from a senior.  
I did my job well but you did not read, only want to make post for your quota.
458  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If Bitcoin is centralized, will it still have value ? on: August 10, 2023, 11:17:29 PM
Bitcoin decentralization have contributed to it scarcity and security. all of this which are factors that influence it's value.
How does decentralization decide Bitcoin scarcity?

It relates to security but not scarcity that is decided by the initial design of controlled supply by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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in conclusion, Bitcoin value is derived from its decentralized nature, which is closely with it's ideal, and any move towards centralization could fundamentally alter it's core and diminish it's value proposition.
If Bitcoin becomes centralized, it won't lose all its value. Have less value or zero value will depend on many factors and not easy to say now. Altcoins like Ethereum, BNB still have their values which are lower than Bitcoin value so I believe Bitcoin value won't drop to $100 or $10 or $1 just because it becomes more centralized.

How is the 21 million Bitcoin cap defined and enforce
459  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Hal Finney: Did he release this project? on: August 10, 2023, 11:00:13 PM
Hal Finney not only a first receiver from a Bitcoin peer-to-peer transaction and he received it from the Bitcoin founder, Satoshi Nakamoto.

He made contributions for Bitcoin developments in early years but his disease became worse and he was more seriously paralyzed gradually. It limited his body physical movememts and he struggled to use computer in late of his life before his death.

I don't know he actually completed his last project and released it but it is not important. With his contributions for Bitcoin development, he is already a legend and will never be forgotten by Bitcoin community.

[History]Hal Finney - Man Who made a huge contribution to the development of BTC
460  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The future of Bitcoin mining on: August 10, 2023, 03:25:58 PM
Your tables are not new so you don't need to reserve copyrights with Watermarks which are unnecessary.

Bitcoin controlled supply
Bitcoin Equivalent Network Time

Bitcoin mining will continue if miners get profit from mining which will depend on block rewards, transaction fees and price of Bitcoin. So if Bitcoin continues its growth of adoption, price will follow it and future of mining will be good.

I think it will be good.
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